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Permit me to disagree when you say that we have enough cap to just pay Edmunds next year. Have you checked our 2022 available cap since they decided to give Edmunds and Josh their 5th year options? We have $1,147,046 available for 2022 according to Spotrac, expecting a salary cap of $192.5M. That's not a misprint or a mistake. Paying Allen and Edmunds puts them $1.1M above the cap for 2022. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2022/ And that is with only 20 guys under contract for much more than vet min (I put the cutoff at $1M). And not yet having signed our drafted rookies. This money situation is going to make it tough on them next year. Yet they paid Edmunds. Because they really really like him and think he's worth it. Oh, and last year 17 of 32 exercised the options, and the year before it was also 17. It's not real difficult to google it if you want to go back further. "How many NFL first rounders had 5th year option picked up 2017?" was how I googled it. Took about 10 seconds to find an article.

Kelce can say hello, but it wasn't like they just put Edmunds on him. That was a failure of the whole defense. And the idea that a two-time Pro Bowler given a $12M option is average is dumb. So is the idea that Beane gives an average guy $12M hoping maybe he'll get better.

Yeah no question about Chiefs. Mahomes alone makes it A+ no matter what. I just tried to find teams that drafted well and Saints really stand out. I was sort of hoping for more discussion about this from people who know players in other teams more than I do. Who did really well in that draft? Who did really suck? Anyway, I think it is pretty clear how hard is to find even 3 long-term starters in one draft. I don't have the capacity to look, but is there any other team in the league other than Saints which will even keep 3 players fro that draft in 2021 (i.e. five seasons)? Saints will, since Lattimore and Ramczyk are playing under 5th year option (and don't have longterm contract so far), Kamara was resigned longterm and Marcus Williams was resigned on 1yr deal. Not here not now please That is sort of the point - grade it after 4 years. You can be sure that I will come up with same thread next year. But if Josh doesn't regress from any reason, I don't think many will grade it other than A even if Phillips is gone and Edmunds doesn't get better. Don't want to argue, but if you want to grade it B due to Zay and Peterman, you are in my view saying that you need to hit on all picks up to 5th round to gain an A, which is almost impossible. In my view 3 top players, including two playing on key position, should almost always guarantee an A, otherwise the grading system is too harsh.

dude, i take a dump on edmunds fairly often, but this is very true. what kinda changed my mind a bit (from like maybe to let's give it a shot anyhow) was his interviews at the end of the season. he was really critical of himself. not eeor style down in the dumps, but reflective and just not satisfied. given his age and obvious talent, and his absolute no excuse for himself (a season when the team went to the afc chip game and he was hurt too boot) mentality makes me think he will leave no stone unturned in trying to be the best he can

Edmunds the undeserved whipping boy of the Bills fan base. The kid played hurt last year when he could have just bailed on the team and took time off. That tells me all I need to know.

i think with the guys to come off the books and the new replacements we just drafted who will be dirt cheap, we have enough cap to just pay edmunds his option next year. to not pay it would be to create a hole, not smart when you think you are in a prime window for a chip. given how flippin young dude is, i really think the bills are making him earn his second contract through all 5 years. if he shows just insane consistent play this season then yah, he gets an early extension, but if his next two years are like his last two years (some good, some regression, some pretty bad) then i bet he walks after year 5. does anyone have stats on how often a 1st pick is extended to year 5, but then not resigned by his drafting team? i think we did that w gilmore, but i think it's not that common.

Kelce says hello and edmunds is average at best. They picked up his fifth year hoping he blows up next year.

Nice Post. I believe the biggest issue people have with Edmunds and Oliver’s play is related to the style of defense. The Bills play a very passive more traditional Tampa Cover 2 with a MLB they use in a specific deep cover roll. Therefore - Edmunds first and primary responsibility is to get deep enough to prevent easy throws to the deep middle. He then plays from back to front to move forward and make tackles on shorter middle routes and then running plays. This design makes it fairly easy to attack short to mid range and also allows DL men to get off double teams and get a hold of him because he is not attacking run first. Traditional old school LBs - attack run first in responsibility and therefore are in completely different positions relative to the LOS and the DL. The Bills also seem to give their DL more responsibility- rather than just attack. Jordan Phillips was a guy that played out of scheme and attacked and it got him sacks (great), but left holes that got exploited by teams (bad) to the tune that they were not aggressive in trying to re-sign him. I think Oliver is doing more what they want, but it is a more passive role and ends up stifling his greatest attribute of quickness. I would love to see how this team would change given a change in philosophy to more attacking and more pressure, but to be fair - their passive style did lead to the #2 and #3 defenses and they were for those 2 years a top passing defense and were tops against TEs. Last year was more of an outlier without Star and with Harrison recovering and then both Milano and Edmunds getting injured in game 1. They had to really adjust the team and I don’t think they found a rhythm until the second half - where they became a top defense again. The biggest issue with being a passive defense is that good to great QBs and OCs know how to attack you and it takes a near perfect game to be successful. A super aggressive defense can sometimes overwhelm a spot and be disruptive for large stretches - see Buffalo versus NE during the Rex years - but a good to great QB can also adjust to that. We need that change and they got that the 2 prior years - where suddenly they would slide into an amoeba front and bring pressure, whil still dropping 7-8 into coverage. They had less practice time, different players (no Zo that was great at that), and injuries at the second level. I think these caused them to be more passive and make a guy like Edmunds even less likely to make those impact plays (TFLs, sacks, etc.).

I agree he is methodical, but he just did the Tre’ White restructure- most likely to give them space after the McKenzie signing. They will need a couple of million for draft picks (minimum amount because they are picking late and only top 51 count), the will want some in case of injury - most teams like a 3-4 million buffer for in season signing for injuries, and finally most likely there will be 1 or 2 additional vets, either before the draft or after the July 1st cuts, that Beane might have an eye out for - that having a couple of million available will allow them to go after. This is exactly what I expected after listening to Beane and reading the articles. A few small restructures - just to keep his flexibility open, but not to go after a shiny toy - it is to keep the team and be prepared. I totally agree - he already has designs on the Josh extension and although people will hate to hear this an Edmunds option also. He has also I am sure already put together a full list of next years FA’s, next years expected draft picks, and exactly how much money the Bills expect based on various scenarios in cap space. He is totally thinking 1, 2, 3, and 5 years out and trying to ensure he is ready. The planning for next year will help drive his draft picks for this year. He will draft people this year that will be available to fill holes on the roster for next year. He knows what positions appear to be strong and works to position the team needs to fit the drafts (and FA) strengths. He is nothing if not methodical.

None of them are anything yet. None have accomplished what Edmunds has for example and many people believe he's replaceable. We need someone to step up and become a difference maker. Doesn't mean they won't or can't, can't expect that from 1st or 2nd year players. And I would say Bass is the best pick Beane has made.

Or the following: Sanders delivers as expected. The Bills address the run game, and add a real threat at RB. They add a legit pass rusher. Epenesa, or Oliver (or both) have a breakout season. Edmunds, or Milano (or both) stay healthy. If one of those five things occur, the Bills remain at the top of the AFCE. If two of those things happen, the Bills are better than last season. If three of those things happen, the Bills are a lot better than last season. If four of those things happen, the Bills dominate the AFC. If all five of those things happen? ...dang!!!

Do you believe that signing free agents is the only way for a team to improve from one year to the next? Do you not believe it’s possible for internal improvement from young players to improve the team overall? Josh Allen hasn’t stopped improving. Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds and AJ Epenesa are all young and could improve. Gabriel Davis, Zack Moss, and Cody Ford may all improve. The team as a whole may improve by virtue of better health, a full offseason, and continuity. Lastly, they still have three top 100 picks in the draft coming up. I don’t disagree they need to improve in order to beat the Chiefs and make the Super Bowl. Who’s to say that adding big ticket free agents is the only way to do it? Who’s to say they won’t otherwise improve? Who’s to say they wouldn’t beat the Chiefs if the two teams played next Tuesday? The Bills are returning essentially an entire roster that went 13-3 against a really tough schedule last year, and has many young players that haven’t peaked yet. I think people need to rein it in a bit with the “we’ll NEVER beat the Chiefs!” talk.

Nice. The issue isn’t that he can’t create the space - the biggest issue that there is still uncertainty in the Cap levels for the next 2 years before the new media package takes place. He is being smart and saving it unless the perfect player or trade lines up that could really help ensure the future of the team. The NFL has nearly 30 million in lost cap space per team to recoup after this year. The Cap would have dropped into the 150 million range and instead they agreed to 183. No one know exactly how much of the CAP will be pulled from next year after the pandemic to start to balance out the lost revenue. If you make a general assumption that the Cap would have risen to the expected levels for this year - that would put the Cap at 212 million and if they recollect all 30 million lost - the Cap could stay flat at 182/183 million and the teams that kicked a bunch into next year suddenly have a lot more kicking to do. If they split it over 2 years - the Cap could be 195 and basically back to what it was before the pandemic. This is all assuming that everything in stadium returns to normal. If there are issues and stadiums are reduced - that Cap could shrink. With the additional regular season game the Cap could rise - although they are losing a preseason game - which was free revenue. The other issue is with our current roster - unless The Cap goes up toward 215 million - we are already getting up against it for next year and he has Josh and Edmunds contracts to deal with - both 5th year options that will get exercised. He will be using the restructures next year to gain the space and if he uses them this year - he already kicked some into next year and has to kick even more into the following year. He is not afraid to do it, but eventually kicking the bonuses and salary forward gets you hamstrung until 2024 and the new media that will blow up the current Cap level and start things resetting. Don’t blow it all this year and make it hard to do things next year and cost yourself a shot in FA next year. Beane is not just looking at 2021 - he is planning 2022 and 2023 to ensure he can keep the team together, improve it, and most important bring home a championship without losing your core.

It's going to be a tougher division. I Agee. How do they improve? They need some of their younger players to to take a step forward. That still includes Allen. Allen can get better still. Edmunds, Oliver, Ford, Davis, Epenesa, and an incoming draft class is how the Bills improve. They must take steps forward. Can they beat the Chiefs? I don't know. It's not the same Chiefs team either.

The defense struggled out of the gate last year because the NFL suspended OTA's on March 16, 2020 and then cancelled all of the preseason games. Milano got hurt early in the season and missed games. Edmunds injured his shoulder early, but played through it. The defense is going to better this year, returning to their 2019 form.

Until one of the other teams in our division has a QB playing at a top 10, or even top 16 level, you're not going to convince anyone that the Bills are not a heavy favorite to win the division. To take down a top 5 QB with a top 5 WR corps you either need an absolutely elite roster, or a QB capable of keeping up. No one in our division meets that standard. If you want to make the case that the Bills haven't improved enough to beat the Chiefs, that is a more defensible position. They need to add a player with game breaking speed on offense, ideally a RB, and get their pass rush up to an above average level. A real CB2 would also help so that our safeties could double Kelce instead of shading Wallace's man. The best case I can make for our defense is that Star returning will allow Oliver to play his natural position. If Oliver and Epenesa and Edmunds all take a step this year that would make a huge impact, but I also recognize that that is a projection not a guarantee.

We were really bad here early on. You’re not wrong... it was tough to watch the first 8 weeks or so. Coincidentally Edmunds and Milano were hurt during those first 8 weeks... once they healed up for the stretch run... we were just outside the Top 5 defensively. I expect another year of continuity helping. I expect Star (yes, he’s overpaid) coming back being a big help solely because DL aren’t playing out of position this year. He’s not an impact player but I think he plays an important role... at some point we can replace him for less... but he’s good at his job. I expect a slightly easier schedule to benefit us as well. I expect the confidence and camaraderie from a group that’s pretty much 100% returning to not only help those guys... but usher in a certain expectation for the few new guys and draft picks. We’re returning 21/22 starters from the AFC Championship game and the one spot where a starter isn’t returning we arguably upgraded... and still haven’t reached the draft.

Jets- Can be a prb in a couple yrs . Salah will have these guys playing hard and they got some nice pieces to build with moving forward . If they take Wilson they can be a serious contender in near future. Dolphins- All depends on how they develop Tua and if they hit on these pks they got this yr. Pat's- Can't rule out Belicheck but I can't respect them until they get a QB. But if they do there gonna be very hard to beat. All in all this division will be tough to win by 2022 but until then the Bills should win the East easily. Now the AFC that's a different story unless we get massive growth from some of our young players mainly Oliver, Edmunds, Epenesa , Knox & Ford plus we find us a back in the draft . I don't see us winning the Conference without these guys really stepping up .

Pay Edmunds? We’ll see.. Maybe if he puts everything together this year, otherwise hard pass.

And the Bills have to be mindful not to push too much cost into the future as they have a 40m QB to pay plus Edmunds.

His 5th year option has to be picked up 6 weeks from now........at which point it immediately becomes fully guaranteed(per Chris Brown) because he has already made a Pro Bowl. I've heard nothing that indicates making a pro bowl this year matters. So you are saying a $75M deal with around $40M guaranteed. A $10M signing bonus doesn't seem realistic at all..........that's not a good % for a player for a contract that large.........and $2M allocated bonus every year is not going to backload the value of the deal............which will likely be necessary to make room with so many big contracts in place. It will take several years for the salary cap to catch up to actual annual league revenue again. This offseason the cap should have been around $150M based on the lost revenue of 2020........but the league and players agreed to subsidize this years cap at the expense of future ones. The TV deal is going to raise the cap gradually but even if it gets to $230M in 2024 that gain from today's figure is likely to be near totally consumed by Allen's cap figure alone. I hate the idea of drafting an off ball LB that early but spending $15M+ on a MLB is near the equivalent of utilizing a first rounder on one. If you are going to do that you want one who is actually a tone-setting playmaker. The point man of your defense. Edmunds simply hasn't been anywhere near that. He's not even their best LB in a 2 LB defense.

Yeah.... I don’t think Edmunds is terrible. He’s a decent LB that could be MUCH better. Maybe he’d be better off in another scheme and most certainly better off playing on the outside. It doesn’t really matter what we or anyone else thinks though. McB and Edmunds have the only say that matters. If Edmunds can put in the work and improve, it’ll make their decision a lot easier. They will certainly pick up his 5th year option which. It’s him some more time. I just pray that they don’t throw him 15m+ a year unless he shows adequate improvement. Last years play was clearly not worth the next big contract.

To me, this is hilarious. Star was these boards favorite whipping boy through all of 2019. Then due to a pre-existing medical condition has him opt out and we see the D take a major step back. And for a few weeks people say, "Oh, gee, we really missed this guy." But that's all forgotten and now it's "can't believe he opted out." I mean, the way folks have to desperately twist and flail to find ways to criticize the guy. It cracks me up. You've got a great example here too. First, you criticize him for taking a year off. Then you do a 180 and criticize him for having a lot of miles. Hunh? He just took a year off. And then after knocking him for too many miles, it's "hasn't played a live snap for a year." Jeez, which is it? Played too much? Played too little? You can't reasonably have it both ways, though many here seem to try exactly these arguments, and, wackily, together. The girlfriends simile doesn't work. You saw your girlfriends again. You have NOT seen Star, you're just remembering him, and unlike what you apparently did with your exes, underestimating. We missed him last year, a lot, especially Oliver and Edmunds. Oh, and in answer to your question, my answer is likely the same as the Bills think. He's been above average every year he's played. At what they hired him to do. No, he's not athletic, and no he's not going to penetrate just about ever. But is he well above average as a space eater, which is what they knew he was when they signed him? The Bills would tell you yes, and the evidence shows they believe it.

The bottom line here is Star should help improve Oliver's play and to a lesser extent Edmund's but he's only going to be around this season and then likely gone. Beane needs to hit on a good young 1Tech. Marvin could be a target.

Oliver has not lived up to his draft status. Edmunds regressed badly. Even White had a few games where he struggled. Despite whatever win rate means the D-line was not affecting the opposing QB much and to compensate Frazier blitzed more than he ever has. H. Phillips did not look good coming off injury and was outplayed by journeyman Zimmerman. Star will help but they need more talent up front. There is not one front 7 Bills defender that wpuld start for Tampa. That doesn't mean all 7 ate bad. But they need at least one true difference maker and a NT to develop from this draft. And they need to see solid improvement from Edmunds, Epenesa, and Oliver.