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You are mixing up apples and oranges. He is an advisor to Polymarket, which is a betting market. He is also a political prognosticator, in which role he has developed/refined a projection model based on independent polls. By the way, Nate's podcast with Maria Konnikova, Risky Business, is worth a (free) subscription. I confess to having a thing for Maria ...

Thank you for the clarification. I will forward to Nate Silver so that he can stop referring to his stuff as a “model”.

It is weird. I simply don't understand arguing with polls or models when you don't like what they're telling you. This thread started out with one of our more liberal commenters saying polls are useless. Then Kamala was substituted in, the polls reflected a gain for Democrats, and conservative commenters said they were garbage. Now they've settled in and analysts like Nate Silver say Trump has a small but significant electoral college edge and liberal commenters are angry with the polls/analysis again. Having said that, Polymarket and other prediction markets are in their infancy and are still very flawed. They are not "polls" and we really don't have a good data to suggest that they truly get at some kind of wisdom of the crowd effect when it comes to elections.

Do you believe that the same Nate Silver is fine with making his model/work/career/credibility a laughingstock because he’s in business with Peter Thiel? That seems to be your thinking. Not a very cool fantasy world you live in. Weird.

Nate silver of Polymarket (bookie & chief) that is owned by Peter Teal who hand picked JV as VP for the felon and buddies with Elmo who is giving the felon $45M in make good advertising on twitter? oh cool fantasy world you live in there.

Nate admitted his model is deeply flawed and predicted a convention bump that didn't happen. He's still tuning it in.

hmmm...538's forecast has Harris AHEAD by a similar margin https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/. Keep it up Nate. We need Harris voters to show up. She keeps telling people we're underdogs. There's a reason for that.

Yeah that pretty much says it all. Scrub vet over rookie, the McD way. Hamlin starting too. Lmao. You think he would of learned after Nate Peterman

I'm seeing weird skepticism about McDermott's ability to develop Safeties in the Lewis Cine conversation. Let's deep dive into how successful McDermott has actually been coaching Safeties in the NFL and getting the most out of them... We all know about Poyer and Hyde. Anyone not giving McDermott credit for those 2 can just stop reading because you're clearly just being silly. Quinten Mikell (Philadelphia) and Kurt Coleman (Carolina) became Pro Bowl Safeties under McDermott at a time when the Pro Bowl meant a little something. Coleman was actually productive and successful with McDermott in Philadelphia, not as good when the parted ways, and then a 7 interception pro bowler when they were reunited in Carolina. Mike Mitchell (Carolina) went to Carolina in 2013 from Oakland on a 1 year contract worth 1 million dollars and had his best year in the NFL by far under McDermott as DC, helping him to get a 5 year, $25 million deal with the Steelers, where he never matched that success or even came close to it. Nate Allen was drafted in the 2nd round by the Eagles in 2010, started as a rookie, and had 3 interceptions, 8 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble and 2 sacks in his rookie year. Haruki Nakamura went from backup nobody with the Ravens to legitimate contributing starter under McDermott with Carolina for one season... the only season of his brief career he intercepted any passes in the NFL... and he got 2. (EDIT: Brought up Roman Harper, but got rid of him from the post after some good observations) I understand the worry right now about our Safeties,but I feel like if there's any position we should give McDermott the benefit of the doubt on, it's that one.

Lol when you can actually tell me what weighing a poll means, I'll take what you post seriously. Until then - you're just a right wing idiot that does what the Republicans tell you to do and follow it blindly. Timely post by Nate Silver on the subject: https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump

I get why Bills fans don’t like a rival qb but I personally think it’s weird to hate on Lamar. People think Allen got hated on (he did) but Lamar went at the end of the 1st, after winning a Heisman. And morons said he won’t even make it as a qb in the nfl, after winning a Heisman. he plays a unique style and isn’t exactly loaded with offensive weapons. Jackson and Allen are pretty similar great stories. This is where McDermott gets too much hate. Allen joined a playoff team and has consistently had top 5 defenses to support his growth. Daboll was an awesome OC and Allen had him for 4 years, which never happens with successful OCs. there is this weird thing that Bills fans like to do and pretend Allen was just awesome right away. Allen worked his butf off to be awesome and has one of the unique skill sets of any qb ever. But the Bills, especially Sean, have done an amazing job supporting his growth. people act like McDermott is Nate Hackett (offensive guy!) instead of a top 10 head coach.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/nate-silver-reveals-one-battleground-state-could-spell-trouble-kamala-harris?intcmp=tw_fnc nate silver has trump with a 53 percent chance to win the electoral college with him winning penn.

An anonymous comment doesn't tell me as much as the fact that Nathaniel Hackett is still running loose in their building. He's the punch line in as many jokes as Nate Peterman and that's really saying something.

Nate works for polymarket, teal

I don’t think Nate Silver is with 538 anymore. They use his branding but Silver has his own model now. Pretty sure he publicly said he doesn’t agree with their modeling methods this cycle.

Nate Silver’s model has Trump now in the lead.

Nate Silver's aggregation has Harris +2 nationally post convention: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model I think looking at all the polls and factoring in MOE, Harris is probably +3,+4 nationally. I'd say it as +1/+2 before the DNC if we're being realistic. Prior elections Dems needed a +4 to win. (it's crazy 20 year olds today have never seen a Republicans President candidate win the popular vote). But I think some of the polling is seeing shifts. Like the latest CA poll for Harris was +20. So if Harris is polling nationally +3 or +4 and only +20 in CA, that means the votes are coming from other states. Biden got 46 percent in TX in 2020 and right now the polling is around 44% for Harris (CA and TX are the two most populous Dem states.

Tells it straight baby! You got it dude! At this point in 2020 he had Biden up 9! https://www.axios.com/2020/08/16/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-model-trump Meanwhile….

I had no idea Mark Halperin, Canceled in the Great Perv Purge, was still around. Meanwhile, Nate Silver tells it straight: Kamala up by about 3.5 points nationally, and this projects right now to be about as close to 50/50 as elections come.

It was LaFleur’s offense when he was with the Jest, not Nate Hackett’s. Not that it makes any difference, because he wouldn’t offer much, if any, appreciable intelligence anyway. Same with the Dolphins.

If you want something new here’s Nate Sivler

If Late Nate Peterman, and Mac & Cheese Jones are still in the league, there should be a place for Zappe somewhere.

Bailey Zappe, Nate Sudfeld join ranks of unemployed QBs, according to PFT.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model Good look by Nate Silver: We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala. There are a couple of essential things to note here. First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points.1 And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.

Just saw that DiNucci was Nate Peterman's backup in college.