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No, there's nothing that interesting in his Venmo contact. I really did mean this as a reminder to people. And could you move on from the Biden thing? It's really a pretty commonly held view if you'd get out more often. People have mentioned Nate Silver here as a pundit guru. I like reading him. Guess what? He goes away beyond me, thinking that Biden is in seriously bad physical/mental health. And yet he says he would vote for Biden over Trump in a heartbeat if that's the choice he's given.

This was Nate’s comparison so I haven’t followed his: The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. (Other changes are documented here.3) If you’ve received this post by email or are viewing it on the Substack app, we strongly recommend that you instead use the web version for interactive charts. Charts in the app don’t update when we add new data, so switch over to your browser to see our most up-to-date forecast.

Nate Silver, who left his own 538, reaches about the same conclusion with his new model: 70 percent or so likelihood of Trump winning.

I don’t subscribe to Nate Silver so I haven’t seen it. Can you copy and paste the write up?

Those two were an absolutely textbook example of the difference between a tough, cerebral CB and a great athlete playing CB. Nate Clements was absolutely one of the best pure athletes to ever put on a Bills uniform, imo. When he was at the top of his game he was arguably the best CB in the NFL for a stretch. Unfortunately he was either lazy and hated homework or he was just dumber than a chicken. This wasn't necessarily an issue against average OC/QB combinations because he was such a good athlete he could recover from almost any misstep. But when matched up against smart offenses that knew how to exploit mistakes and tendencies, he could be taken advantage of at times. While he was one of the few corners you'll ever see that could literally affect a scoreboard from that outside reactive position, he was never smart enough to do it consistently and because of it never reached his full potential. Winfield was nowhere near the athlete that Clements was, and frankly it wasn't even close. But his smarts and his instincts made him a more consistently reliable defender. He actually got beat over the top a lot because he had to gamble to impact the game, but because he was really savvy about genuinely understanding down/distance and recognizing the concept of the entire defense, he very rarely got stung in those instances because offenses weren't set up or in position to take advantage of it when he did. If both had their A games, Clements was better simply due to his out of this world athleticism. But Winfield ended up being a better player in the long run because of his superior understanding of both defenses and offenses and situational football.

Guys who have no business being on a Bills Mt. Rushmore. Jeff Wright, for reasons already discussed. John Fina, LT. I acknowledge that Bills' OLs have been more bad than good over the years. But mentioning John Fina's name in a context such as this is the act of a drowning man clutching at any straw he can possibly find. Back when Fina was active, the Bills used two different rating services. Both had Fina in the bottom 10 of starting NFL LTs, with one putting him lower down in the bottom ten than did the other. Cordy Glenn was a much better football player than Fina. Nate Clements, CB. He had one good year with the Bills (contract year). Then the 49ers overpaid him, and he proceeded to do not much while he was there. Antoine Winfield was a much better player. Keith McKeller, TE. 1464 career receiving yards. (7 year career). Dawson Knox has already surpassed that, at 1966 (5 year career and counting). Dalton Kincaid has 673 receiving yards: nearly half McKeller's career total. Kincaid has been in the league just one year, and was under-utilized. Players who deserve to be on Bills Mt. Rushmore: Ted Washington, DT. Made lots of plays, and showed up big on the stat sheet, while consuming two blockers. Bryce Paup, pass rushing OLB (3-4). 17.5 sacks in a season. Defensive MVP for entire NFL. Henry Jones, safety. Honorable mention players: Pat Williams, DT. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB Jason Peters, LT. Would have been a shoe-in had he been here longer.

Not if longevity and consistency weigh heavily, as they appear to with Marino's criteria. Smith was not the same reliable, steadying presence that Kelso was IIRC. I was youngish at the time, though. I remember Smith being flashier, both good and bad. Kinda like Nate Odoms in that way. (Smith was more of a SS though, wasn't he? Very different position from Kelso's FS back then.)

I never saw George Saimes play. But he is on the wall. And I have heard that he was really really good. I remember Tony Greene. I liked Jeff Nixon too. He was a ball hawk. And what about Leonard Smith? He was an enforcer. At corner, seriously Nate Odomes?? Didn't love his game. I liked Thomas Smith, Terrance McGhee and especially Antoine Winfield better. Nate Clements was real good. (And we should have never let him and Winfield leave) Byrd and Edgerson were before my time as well. But I heard they were real good also. What about Tre White? Don't like the Shane Conlan pick. He was good, but all time good? Was he better then John Holacek? Milano is better than Conlan. Sam Cowart would have been better but for the injury he suffered on the fateful day in 2000 in the rain in Tampa. What about London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes? Bennett and Talley were both special. I don't have time for the rest right now. But it sure is great to think about all the old Bills players and teams. You must have watched those 60's teams a bunch. Were they a really good outfit to watch and root for?

I'm bored at work and absolutely refuse to get started on my Excel spreadsheets, so I decided to play the "Bills positional Mt Rushmore" game using the criteria cited. No one asked for this, but here it is anyway. Sorry, employer. QB Josh Allen Jim Kelly Jack Kemp Joe Ferguson RB Thurman Thomas OJ Simpson Joe Cribbs Fred Jackson FB Cookie Gilchrist Sam Gash Larry Centers Jim Braxton WR Andre Reed Eric Moulds Elbert Dubenion Stefon Diggs TE Ernie Warlick Pete Metzelaars Keith McKellar Paul Costa OT House Ballard Will Wolford John Fina Dion Dawkins OG Joe DeLamielleure Billy Shaw Ruben Brown Jim Ritcher C Kent Hull Al Bemiller Mitch Morse Eric Wood DE Bruce Smith Aaron Schobel Mario Williams Phil Hansen DT Tom Sestak Kyle Williams Fred Smerlas Mike Kadish LB Darryl Talley Cornelius Bennett Mike Stratton Shane Conlan CB Butch Byrd Booker Edgerson Nate Odomes Nate Clements S George Saimes Micah Hyde Jordan Poyer Tony Greene

Welcome aboard Nate

Shaw.... better than 2017???? C'mon. The answer to that question is an obvious and emphatic YES!!!! The Bills had, at best, an average roster in the NFL in 2017. What I'm glad I found within the last year are good, broader NFL podcasts with actual pundits who watch the film rather than "shock jocks" like Cowherd, Nick Wright, Stephen A, Skip Bayless, etc. In listening to these (and that would include Mina Kimes, Nate Tice, Robert Mayes, Brett Kollman, EJ Snyder and all the guests they have on their shows), you discover that these broader NFL experts have a lot of the same natural questions we do about the Bills because of the roster turnover and switch to Joe Brady, but they pretty universally agree that while Buffalo may take a step back from the "true contender" category, they're still a playoff team and the favorites to win the AFC East. (By the way, what's even more universal among them is that Josh Allen is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and is in a tier of his own) I think that assessment is pretty fair. Even the most optimistic among us at the very least are merely projecting how our WRs and Safeties especially will be. But what those varying experts also agree on and have talked about at various times is how bad Buffalo's roster was in Josh Allen’s rookie year. Yes, I realize that's 2018, not 2017... but there was a lot of carryover. I don't think 2017's roster is remotely comparable with 2024's roster, even discounting the QBs.

Not even close to true as Nate Silver said the election was "not a toss up" as Trump wins in about 2/3 of the models run. But this post aged well. LOL! You would have been celebrating if Biden looked compos mentis and ensured his re-election. And that you think he didn't lie is also laughable.

Well, you seemed to think that he'd be jacked up on some PEDs and would turn in a State of the Union yelling performance. Which, by the way, he seemed to be doing at a rally today. Teleprompter? I guess, I don't know. I still stand with Nate Silver: even if propped up by his staff he's preferable to Trump. Better still, a whole new nominee.

Ooh that's a tough one. I would go Nate Odoms for 37

I just watched the whole thing. All I can say is: I refer you to John Stewart (usually not my guy, but spot-on here), and to Nate Silver: https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out And it’s not just that Joe Biden is 81 now — it’s that he’s seeking a second term and wants to continue being president until he’s 86! Michael Jordan wasn’t awful with the Wizards, but he also wasn’t about to ask for a four-year contract extension. An 86-year-old president is a ridiculous and untenable proposition. Few world leaders are anywhere close to that old, other than in authoritarian countries — and none of them are the American president, the hardest job in the world. Is an 86-year-old Biden being president as ridiculous and untenable as an 82-year-old Trump being president? (Trump just turned 78 so would be 82 by the end of his second term.) For me, the answer is still no. In fact, although this is an increasingly unpopular view, I think Biden’s had a pretty good first term. And if I lived in a swing state2, I’d still vote for Biden — if for no other reason than because I think January 6 is so disqualifying to outweigh everything else.

I've pretty much stopped looking at state-wide polls, or even worse Congressional district polls. There is so much error there that it's hard to draw any conclusions. Weirdly, though, national presidential polling is still pretty good. I say "weirdly" because who answers their phone and agrees to take a poll? I've had a few of these calls over the years that I have answered, but they always seem kind of fake and I don't go ahead; they won't give me the name of the company doing the polling. If they simply said "Quinnipiac" or something I recognized I would do it. So in 2020 we had Biden with about a 7 point lead in the national poll aggregates, and he won by about 5, within what we would consider margin of error (there is no such thing when aggregating, but you know what I mean). Pretty good, all things considered. Nate Silver is promising his model before the debate, so we'll see. For now, fivethirtyeight (which he really no longer is a part of) has it as a virtual tie - Biden + 0.2 in the national aggregate. But that's with RFK still drawing 9+ percent. The national polls really don't mean anything in the electoral college, but I think it's fair to assume that with the electoral college advantage the Republicans have Biden will need to win the national popular vote by at least the same margin as he won by in 2020.

Any relation to Nate Geary from WGR?

I think the Jets are a bigger threat with a healthy QB, but playing devils advocate, Nate Hackett should be the reason why someone thinks Miami is a bigger threat.

Four coaches/front office people Doug Whaley. His most successful draft pick was Sammy Watkins. All-in on EJ Manuel. Tom Donahoe. He could have traded up for Ben Roethlisberger. But he decided Houston's asking price was too high. He could have waited a year and drafted Aaron Rodgers. Instead of doing either of those things, he drafted JP Losman. Gregg Williams. Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense had been outstanding. Williams dismantled that, and installed his own blitz-happy scheme. Used bullhorns to wake players up in the morning. In New Orleans, was the centerpiece of the bountygate scandal. Rex Ryan. Build a bully. A blowhard and an embarrassment to the franchise. His defense was doing poorly, so he fired his perfectly good offensive coordinator, Greg Roman. Rex reasoned that he'd be less likely to be fired during the season, if the team lacked a qualified interim coach. Four players OJ Simpson. Obviously. Kelvin Benjamin. Too lazy to catch a football. Donte Whitner. Okay. I realize it's not his fault that Levy/Jauron squandered the 8th overall pick on him. But given that he came to Buffalo overrated and over-hyped, he had a tendency to over-promise and under-deliver. Some of our OL in a Nate Peterman start. At one point, McDermott made the decision to bench Tyrod Taylor and put in Nate Peterman. One or more of our OL took issue with that, and deliberately whiffed on some of their blocks. That's enough to richly earn them a place on this list.

these are my bushwick babies. This was One of his bands back in the day . my son the bass player long nose braided hair guy Nate with Drew, Walter and Paulie dead heavens dead heavens

And in the "good news for election geeks" category, I see that Nate Silver will now be doing his presidential forecast on his substack: https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin Free, at least for now. First one will be out before the debate! One general comment from me: it seems to me that national polling is still (astoundingly, given response rates in the days of cell phone polling) pretty good. On the other hand, state-level polling is pretty bad. Iowa is now one of those no-doubter red states, so I'm not arguing about that. But the key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada) are still really hard to read, perhaps because they depend so much on turnout rates.

You just posted what the “Democrat plot” would look like. You just posted. 'Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk,' polling guru Nate Silver wrote on social media last week. 'Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask.' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13481849/amp/democrat-plot-biden-replacement-clinton-obama-pelosi-schumer.html Klein, Silver, they are telling you they can do it and this is what it would look like. The Democrat Plot. It’s about saving Democracy. More… “The Democratic party machine has now elected to hold an online nomination, complete with a 'virtual roll call,' to formally select Biden as their nominee ahead of the DNC convention in Chicago in mid-August. Part of the reason to go 'virtual' is to ensure a more controlled process should the party decide to select a replacement candidate. In that case, top Democratic leaders would quietly draft the substitute nominee in advance.”

Not even as awesome as Nate Peterman! I am familiar with the offseason championship--is there a Pre Season HOF?

Nate Peterman Kelvin Benjamin Mike Williams Aaron Maybin HC: Melvin Fowler (that guy was an a hole)

'Goldilocks'. 🤨 Had it been Allen throwing, it would have been too hard. If Peterman, Nate would have either thrown it to a Brown, or held onto it and ran out the clock. 🙁