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Could be they changed it. I think including void years to lower a cap hit is fine, but in the context of a comp pick discussion i'd almost have to eliminate them. How do you calculate an APY including void years IE Leonard Floyd. Either you don't get the comp pick because you "cut him" and have dead cap on your books, or you get the comp pick, but his APY is calculated as a 1 year deal at the full value. I do know the bengals moving into the 3rd was because of bates making all-pro. There are a few other reasons that edmunds could've moved from 3rd to 4th beyond his playing time. They also moved the player 3rd round cut-off up i believe when factoring in the coaching hire 3rd round picks.

Yeah, like I said, I feel that way too. They are just making the wrong decision at WR again, IMO. Same as they have the previous couple offseasons when they stupidly went all-in on Gabe Davis opposite their All Pro Diggs and did little else. Now they are expecting to replace Diggs and Davis with Coleman and Samuel(and a cast of cast-offs). That is an even greater leap of faith than those prior offseasons. It's not like the MLB position in that regard.......that was the first time they'd risked leaving themselves short at the position. This is them tripling down on not doing enough at WR. I was 100% behind their plan at MLB last year. Everybody they had used in place of Edmunds over the years had produced in limited roles. Pedestrian-Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles under McDermott in 2017. There was AMPLE reason to trust in that decision. Not so much at WR. Skepticism should be the order of the day there.

I also am really not going into the WHO is WR for the next 6 months. like occurred with MLB. For all we know Justin Shorter development is what also allowed Beane to say OK. Very similar to Bernard and Edmunds. I also think Shorter development plays a part and the sheer number of WRs in this years draft. This would be the year, reset the cap all in one year and keep moving.

They weren’t the same drafts. I know this. That’s why I said the years. If we had taken Wilkins, or Lawrence or Simmons at #9 (all impact players that are better DT’s than Ed) and DK in the second, I would not be sitting here talking about how we failed to find impact players with those picks. If we had taken Jaire Alexander or DJ Moore (guys that would’ve for sure gotten second contracts with the Bills) over Edmunds (who was not an impact player and did not get a second contract here), I would not be sitting here talking about how we failed to find impact players with that pick. Beane (and you) keep talking about how they didn’t suck the year before Chase was in the draft so it’s not their fault they don’t have him. That’s true. What’s also true is that we had our own bites at the apple to find impact players at high value positions, i.e. pass rusher, CB, WR with high picks and failed to do so. We took a solid LB who was a disappointment, a bust OT/OG, and like the 4th best DT in the first round who no-shows in the playoffs. When we had comparable picks to the Bengals during their period of suck. They drafted stars at high value positions. We drafted league averages and busts.

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss". Take, for example, Edmunds. Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him? No. Was it because he was a "miss"? No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT. And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit? Do we?

No, it’s set. The Bills are getting a 3rd for Edmunds but that’s it. https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

Edmunds extracts one final coup de grâce on his TBD-TSW enemies. "Take that, you jive turkeys!"

Was reading article in todays BN that listed stats from Beanes draft class. I found it kind of interesting as in the past Beane often took people based on potential upside. Edmunds and Knox are a couple of names that come to mind. Even Allen is true of. Seems like his picks are more what can he do for me right away which likely reflects the fact that years back they more were drafting for long term future, but that has changed. The average age of the first nine picks was 22.8 years (oldest of any Beane class) and the average games of college experience was 46.4 (most of any Beane class); the six-year averages entering this draft were 22.0 years and 39.8 games. UCF offensive tackle Tylan Grable’s 58 college games are the most of any Beane pick.

And so it then appears that it was no big deal Edmunds was let go then…, Odds are we will be fine with out Morse at center as well, being the coaches are capable of making changes at need…,

How about the contracts he DIDNT give out. NOT paying Tremaine Edmunds $18M/yr NOT paying Gabe Davis $13M/yr NOT giving Poyer a massive extension last year, letting him test free agency, then letting him sign for significantly less. NOT paying Jordan Phillips after a 10 sack season. NOT paying Shaq Lawson after his best season. These are all situations where Bills players were allowed to walk and another GM gave them an awful contract. Where’s the credit for these?

Great. The Tremaine Edmunds of WRs.

No way am I giving epenesa 20 m sorry. I love his work but he lost a little flcred on talent evaluation with the Bernard and Edmunds takes.

Some "hot takes" on players I remember from this board. Not that I think folks are wishing for any players we pickup to struggle. Edmunds was very replaceable at LB. Cody Ford was going to struggle with foot speed and subsequently his balance and leverage in pass pro. Kromer may have been able to coach him up more and get more out of him as a run game mauler that I think he was better suited to. Humphrey at center was a better bet than Basham. I think this board universally hated on Kelvin Benjamin and questioned his work ethic and effectiveness the moment he refused to warm up and catch passes with our young QB Josh Allen before a game. He did not pan out here or anywhere else. We are overpaying for Star. The list goes on and on and to be fair of course the times when there were different opinions and I like that too... folks to challenge opinions. I loved his aggressive playing style but argued that Taron Johnson would never stay healthy enough to be a solid contributor. Apologies to Taron who has turned in many great seasons and is recognized as one of the premier slot corners in the league. I wanted Hokenson or the TE the Jags drafted over Knox. Folks here argued you don't take a TE that high. Oliver has outshined Hockenson and that Jags TE tore himself up in training camp and ended up on IR his first 2 seasons. I think he is now on the Vikings and is considered a blocking TE. Looks like he ate that guy who was drafted. I was worried going into last season with Bernard who looked so overwhelmed as a rookie in 2022. The Bills can coach these guys up if they have the athletic ceiling. It is too funny that the national media has labeled him as a breakout player this year - what was last year?

Back in the '90s and 2000s, it was common for the Bills to use a first round pick on a CB. He'd spend five or (Nate Clements) six years with the team, then leave in free agency. Another first round pick would be used on his replacement. The RB position was similar, except the duration of RBs was often even shorter than for CBs. There was a period of 40 years, during which the Bills used 1/4 of their first picks of the draft on DBs, and another 1/4 on RBs. Leaving only 50% for everything else. Needless to say, the Bills lost more games than they won during those 40 years. When I evaluate the success of a particular draft pick, I look at the quality of the player. But I also look at the duration of play he provided for the team which drafted him. Both Cordy Glenn and Travis Henry were drafted in the second round. Glenn was with the team for far longer than Travis Henry, which is one of several reasons why Glenn was a much more successful use of a 2nd round pick. Edmunds had great athleticism. For certain situations or in certain games he played at a high level. But, his football instincts were poor, and he was bad at shedding blocks. Someone posted a stat that, during his time with the Bills, he was blitzed 70 times or so (I forget the exact number). That resulted in zero pressures. If you take into account both the good and bad parts of his game, he was not worth anything close to the monster contract he got. At least not to me. I would never want to use a first round pick on an off-the-ball linebacker whose game had as many weaknesses as Edmunds' did, and who was only going to be with the team for five years. Harrison Phillips is a very solid player. But, like you said, a very solid player for the Vikings. Just as Wyatt Teller is an excellent player for the Cleveland Browns. I give Beane a lot of credit for drafting both those players in the first place. But he gets anti-credit for failing to keep them. Either player would be a real benefit to the Bills, if added right now. In terms of that draft, I give Beane the most credit for taking Josh Allen (obviously), and the second-most for Taron Johnson. Johnson may not be as good a player as a guy like Wyatt Teller, but at least he's still with the team.

That’s an interesting question. What did McDermott do in Buffalo before Beane got there? He drafted Tre White, Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano while adding an extra first round pick for the next season in the process knowing that they’d need all the extra ammo they could get to draft a QB the following season. Then he took a bad roster and a bad QB to the playoffs for the first time in 17 seasons. Beane picked Allen, presumably with a lot of input from McDermott after Mayfield and Darnold had already been taken. Allen, Rosen, and Lamar were the three left. Basically, he/they were smart enough not to take Josh Rosen. And let’s not pretend that Josh just walked on the field and started balling. He had to be developed over three plus years. Since then, Beane (and McDermott) has mostly drafted average players. McDermott has proven since his Carolina days that he can develop talented rookies into difference makers on defense. Beane has whiffed on them in the draft. It’s not like Basham and Edmunds got better after they left. They were mediocre guys who were way over drafted. If Brian Burns or Montez Sweat was on the defensive line instead of Oliver, things would be very different. Rousseau is fine and might get 10 sacks one day, but he’s never going to be Maxx Crosby. All things considered, I’m taking McDermott’s resume over Beane’s.

Yeah, and clearly with Edmunds, Milano, Bernard, Dotson, etc., Beane and McDermott don’t have a clue when it comes to LB talent. Big “yikes”. Philly fans on a message board should be running the Bills.

Shakir is coming into his third season in 2024, and usually that's when WRs who aren't top prospects from the best programs develop into good NFL wideouts if they have the talent. I don't think that Beane would have made the trade if the Bills coaching staff wasn't confident that Shakir can take up some of the production loss from not having Diggs. Beane doesn't strike me as a knee-jerk or fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants type guy. He's a forward thinker and a planner, so his focus is long-term ... which is really what a team should want with a GM. Leave the short-term focus to the HC. Look at last season when the consensus among fans was that the Bills were going into the season without a real replacement for Tremaine Edmunds because the new starter in his spot was some second-year kid named Terrel Bernard who wasn't a first round pick and had only played in a couple of games. Surprise, surprise. Beane realized that fairly early on that Edmunds wasn't what they wanted/needed in a MLB, so he drafted a replacement really before the fans were even thinking about the "problem". I think Bernard made more plays in his first game than Edmunds made during the entire 2022 season, and all the angst over the Bills supposed hole at LB faded away. The Bills offense will look different than in past years without Diggs, but that doesn't mean that it won't be as productive. Allen needs receiving options, and he'll have them by September, although not necessarily a WR1 as good as Diggs in his prime. It's also possible that "the hole at WR" goes the way of the "hole at LB".

To be truthful, I don't think Edmunds enjoyed contact. Mitch Morse said about Josh Allen that "he's sick in the head because he likes it" (meaning contact, running people over, taking a good hit). Richard Sherman talked about the first time he went to tackle Josh Allen, Josh lowered his shoulder and Sherman was thinking "oh, OK now, you the QB and you're going to lower your shoulder, let's go". He said "next thing I know, I'm on the ground, you see them little blinks". You would know more than me, but I've heard football players talk about the buzz they get from contact, it goes white, "you see them little blinks", it's an adrenaline rush. They all get desensitized to the pain of contact where instead of taking over their nervous system with a rush of sensation, the brain says "OK, no injury there, Carry On", but the ones who play with joy and abandon actually get something enjoyable from a good hit. "You need a little contact" I could be wrong, I just don't think Edmunds ever enjoyed or got into hitting or taking hits. Whereas you can tell Bernard and Williams are "Bring It!". Taylor Rapp is a bit *TOO* "bring it!".

Agreed. I don't want a Whaley type move of stupidly giving away the store with trade ups, and McDermott did give away picks for Edmunds and Elam. I also think that quarterbacks AND receivers obviously benefit from very strong offensive lines. A quarterback like Josh can find any receiver given all day to throw. Your stats went back 20 years but the NFL is an increasingly offense oriented league, passing in particular. I think that the Bills should focus on wide receivers and blockers for depth. This would well serve to keep the Bills competitive. One last point.....I saw the blame that you placed on the Bills losses in recent big games, but you left out McDermott. I'm just sayin.....

Anyone know what the playing time benchmarks are for comp picks? What I keep reading is Edmunds missing time due to injury may have been why we got a 4th not 3rd.

Unless they do another change or Floyd or Davis miss an extended period of time next year - we'll get those picks. We didn't get the 3rd for two reasons. 1.) They on a whim decided to change the formula and incorporate things like void year money instead of just the strict cap number it was before - choosing to do it retroactively instead of going forward and 2.) Edmunds missed some time. Beane said they were talking to the league all year and they told him he was getting a 3rd, until they randomly decided to change the qualifications at the buzzer. I don't think they're going to do that again this year. It is wrong. Our picks are as follows: 1 2 (from Minnesota via Houston for Diggs) 2 3 4 (from Chicago for a 2024 5th) 4 4 (Compensation for Davis) 5 (Compensation for Floyd) 6 (from NYG for Basham and our 2025 7th) 6 Our 5th was traded to Houston as part of the Diggs trade.

I didn't miss the point, I don't agree with your point nor do I believe it is an accurate way of looking back at our history. Again, no disrespect, but I think you are only picking some things to support your narrative rather than looking entirely of what really was going on each year. In 2018 the team was still eating a ton of dead cap and was in total rebuild mode, Josh Allen was a rookie. You spoke of picks immediately after Allen in listing Edmunds who was chosen in the very same round. But that is neither here nor there, so lets get into your explanation here. 2018 was not even in full rebuild mode yet as Beane was still in the tear down phase of clearing out the cap. He positioned himself to go after a QB in that draft, and did just that, but that does not change the fact that he was still cleaning house elsewhere on the roster, especially the cap. DRAFT: Set the tone with Allen at QB, then nabbed Edmunds to be the QB of the defense. 2019 he was able to start to build up some pieces and he immediately went out and signed John Brown and Cole Beasley. DRAFT: Beane used 3 of our first 4 picks on Offense. And when you are rebuilding a team, you invest in the trenches first which he did with our first 2 picks in Oliver and Ford. Of course, Ford didn't work out, but does not change the intent or the fact it was offensive heavy draft that included multiple starters. 2020 Allen is coming off a year where he really showed his potential and took yet another major step forward. Beane went out and made a big trade for Diggs investing our first and a 4th to go get him to add to Brown and Cole who were coming off career years with Josh. Now Brown got hurt, but Diggs and Cole formed an excellent duo. DRAFT: We needed a DE as we were old there, and having no first AJE managed to slip to us in the 2nd and was BPA and also a major need. Beane then went OFFENSE the next FIVE picks (including Gabe Davis) in what would be an almost entirely offensive draft with the only other non-defensive player being Dane Jackson as our final pick. 2021 Bills got DOMINATED by the Chiefs in the trenches and we didn't sniff Mahomes in the playoffs either. The trenches were our biggest needs coming into the draft, especially after transitioning from our old vets as pass rushers began. We had elite Diggs, Cole, and now Davis coming off a strong rookie season filling in for an injured Brown. They still signed Sanders to replace Brown to go along with the other 3. DRAFT: We had to over the hill starters at DE and AJE was coming along slowly as he had his rookie year heavily impacted by COVID season. We were also picking late and were able to take Groot who slid to us after sitting out his COVID season. NOW...I won't argue that maybe going back-to-back with Basham given we also did have AJE was too aggressively addressing this position. However, Beanes first 4 picks were all in the trenches on the DL (first 2) and OL (2nd two picks). When a team kicks you a** in the trenches to the point you don't look like you belong on the same field, its not out of question to go heavy in those areas. 2022 Bills decisions in 2021 resulted in record breaking offense in the 2021 playoffs where Allen and the offense went off in the playoff games and our defense collapsed AGAIN, but this time in the most impossible but Billsy way of 13 seconds and OT. Once again, we did not sniff Mahomes in the playoffs and he went off. DRAFT: No question our biggest need was CB heading into the draft, and they took Elam then Cook, who was not only to bolster the run game but to give Allen another receiving weapon out of the backfield which they tried to address in FA but the RB backed out and went back to Wash after agreeing to come here. We had moved on from Cole, so they signed Crowder in FA and then drafted Shakir as the future of the position. Beane drafted Elam, Cook, Bernard, and Shakir of which 3 have hit and Elam may be emerging still. To go along with Benford later in the draft as well. 2023 and 2024 Beane used 3 of his first 4 picks on offense as well, but again we are talking about the earlier drafts as you said he didn't address offense until late which is categorically not true and completely disregards the early years where Beane was rebuilding an entire roster, not just an offense.

For whatever its worth: PFF says he was 12th out of 46 qualified (300+ run snaps) LBs vs the run.... and he was slightly better than Bernard in coverage, just behind (ex Bill) Terrell Edmunds

Uh, yes? We extended him before his 5th year option officially kicked in. Maybe it gave us an extra two months to negotiate, but that's all. Like I said, it's a bargaining chip. The same effect can be had by using the franchise tag if you really need it. The 5th year option is most useful for players like Edmunds or Rousseau where you're not quite sure what you have and you want that one extra year of tape to see if they're worth extending. No, they did it for the same reason Minnesota swapped one pick with NY at #10 - they got scared we would trade back with someone else (likely aided by a bit of salesmanship from Beane) and they would lose out on getting their guy. This happens all the time. Again, look at the trade value chart. #31 to #32 is -6 points. #32 to #33 is -4 points. #33 to #34 is -5 points. Teams are telling you that the 5th year option is worth less than the drop off in total contract value.

OK so we're not getting a 3rd because we lost a 1st rounder in Edmunds, it's completely because of the contract he signed with Bears?