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That’s not actually what I said, but it’s fine. What I actually said was, why can’t Curtis Samuel play the Diggs role of flanker in this offense? They’re similar athletes from a size and skill perspective. When I predicted production, I projected him for like 90 targets and 700 yards. What I didn’t know at the time was how different the offense would look and how many personnel groupings they would run out there…my assumptions were based on last year and last years usage rates when the bottom half of the depth chart was trash. And Badol, I DID project targets and yards based on 550 attempts and previous year ypt. So far, it looks pretty right…Shakir with around 1k yards, Kincaid around 8-900 and everyone else between like 2-700. If they throw less than 550 times, obviously those numbers drop proportionally…more they go up. But it had Josh around 4300 yards, which is right around 8.2 ypa. He’s at 8.8. Edit: Looks like I actually projected Samuel for 80 targets and 500 yards.

Were these the same insiders who called Josh overrated? The Ravens ranked No. 1? LOL, about as valid as Lamar as MVP. Most wins the last 5 years (2019-2023) RS 1. Chiefs - 63 2. Bills - 58 3. GB & Balt - 56 5. SF - 54 6 Dal - 50 Looks to me like a much more accurate survey.

Ravens 24 Bills 23 I want to asterisk that if the Bills win I think they finish the season 13-4/14-3. That is how much stock I put into this game because I think as is they are winning the division at 11-6/12-5, but this is a very tough game that changes a season to be special vs really good IMO (think Rams 2020). The Ravens are 10-3 at home in primetime in black and look to be on the upswing despite injuries and a defense that is a major work in progress. Ravens come out with a good punch to go up 14-3 entering the 2nd quarter as they get two early rushing TDs split between Henry/Lamar. In the 2nd quarter though Josh rallies the troops on a long 7 min drive and scores a TD courtesy of Knox from 3 yards out to make it 14-10 and then a Lamar turnover allows the Bills a quick FG before entering half to make it 14-13. Buffalo gets the ball out of half and Allen finally hits MVS on a deep pass for a 55 yard TD to go up 20-14. The Ravens answer with a TD drive of their own finished by Flowers scoring on one of those reverse drop passes and the 4th quarter starts 21-20. After trading possessions Allen drives the Bills downfield with 6 mins left before they miss a 3rd and goal as Cooks drops the pass in the endzone with 1:20 left. Settling for a FG the nightmare last loss comes as the Bills defense is unable to hold the Ravens to midfield setting up a Tucker FG from 52 that just squeaks in. Allen 283 yds 2 TDs 1 Int 32 yds rush Cooks 76 yds 14 att MVS 3 rec 98 yds 1 TD

The way we are playing right now, I understand why people would say no, but the first game we lose where Allen has trouble without a "go to" receiver target on third/goal line downs, we will miss not having a guy like Hopkins. Shakir has been great but he's not a traditional outside receiver and will be on the field with or without Hopkins. Coleman isn't there yet to the point of being dependable, and Mack and MVS are never going to be more than role players. Samuels is a completely different type of gadget receiver. There will come a point I the season where we could really use someone line Hopkins on the outside honestly. Of course, I wouldn't give up a lot for him but if the titans were willing to dump him relatively cheaply and eat some of the cap, I'd be interested. Hopkins beats to his own drum for sure but is certainly not the type of selfish distraction of a person that Diggs proved to be. I'd be fine with a one year cheap flier while Coleman is still developing. We only have so many years with Allen, gotta maximize the opportunities!

Is that a problem? I always thought most folks were cool with leaving players be when they were with family and such. I know some hockey players hate Toronto and Montreal for that reason. They live in a fishbowl. I think young players thinking about their off-time get bummed because Buffalo doesn't have a "scene" like Miami or Vegas. The weather scares some players from the south who never had to deal with snow. Sadly a lot of players sit around their apartments in Orchard Park and play video games rather than get into the city and see what is there. But Josh Allen is proving that if your star shines bright enough, people will see you, even in Buffalo.

I do worry about the "bludgeoning of Derrick Henry" runs. But this isn't the Ravens D of years gone by. Josh is going to move the Bills down the field and put points on the board. Eventually, reluctantly, Harbaugh will have to start passing more to catch up. It won't work. Well, that's both my hope and official prediction.

My thought when it comes to the draft, which a lot less informed and uneducated than most on this site, is you draft a football player first. Josh Allen is a football player, he just happens to be a great QB, but he is a football player first and foremost. we see that every week.

It’s an opinion board. I gave my opinion which so far looks wildly incorrect. Have you ever been wrong about anything? I could take the route of simply erasing the thread because I’m the OP in it. Im sure that’s a route someone SoTeary as you might take. Instead I owned up to being wrong. If you had read through the thread you might have noticed. Apparently you preferred to criticize an old post that I already acknowledged was erroneous. Should I go look to see if you wanted to draft Josh Rosen and then make hoity toity comments about you?

Bumping this one since I don't want to start new topic and don't know where to put this. Anybody has a clue what happened with Josh Allen contract in these past days? I am checking sportrac regurarly and all the time since the roster was set we had about -$4.5M cap space next year. Right now, it shows about $12.7M positive cap space. The difference is $17M. I tried to find out what happened and I am pretty sure it's Allen's cap hit. All the time it was about $60M next year and right now it only shows $43M. Fwiw, overthecap shows the same. I don't know which part of his cap hit is different but something is. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total Anybody knows the reason? Is it possible that they had it wrong all the time until now?

You know damn well Allen and Brady are aware of that record Shakir can break with one more catch… fully expect it to be the first play from scrimmage on Sunday night just a quick hitting screen to get it outta the way.

These the same anonymous people that called Josh overrated?

Diggs was needed when the Bills made that trade. I think having an experienced #1 WR did Josh a lot of good at that stage of his career. Him and Jefferson learning together may have worked but carried risk. And, even if they hadn't traded the first round pick, there's nothing to say they would have chosen Jefferson anyway. There's a balance to take. This year was the right time for Diggs to go but he did a lot of good for the team whilst in Buffalo.

a few things ive noticed this year....especially last game, about Josh. ball placement has been excellent in general and for yac. he's getting the ball out faster. against jax i was really impressed how quickly he was getting rid of the ball. the last part is not only is he getting rid of the ball quicker but he's reading the field and brady is actually giving him an outlet player that isnt in his hip pocket, of which he has been utililzing.

I realize that even as an outsider (I'm not even in the US!) that has been a Bills fan for decades and suffered through the drought, Josh makes the game so much fun the void after he is gone will hit hard. Let's enjoy it now, for sure. Superbowl, baby. We need this while he's here! BTW, kudos to Josh's dad. He did mock interviews with him and all to prepare him. Think of all the time JA17 has been on the mic and never messed up! Quite impressive. As even if he does say tons of cliches and harmless answers, he adds color often, pays attention to questions, add inside jokes and all. The guy is great all around.

Ravens 31 Bills 10 The Bills undefeated streak comes to an end and the media narrative shifts from how great the Bills are to how easy their schedule was up until now. Lamar isn't asked to do much, but the little play-action he does, leads to two passing touchdowns to put the game away early in the 3rd quarter. The Bills defense is unable to get off the field early against a bludgeoning of Derrick Henry runs, and the defense is absolutely gassed by halftime. The turnovers finally happen to the Bills as we hit the perfect trifecta of Josh interception, fumble, and Cook fumble. With all the momentum in the Ravens favor early, the Bills are never able to right the ship.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777310/2024/09/26/nfl-front-office-rankings/ The Athletic polled 40 league insiders, including 35 high-ranking executives and five coaches, to compile the NFL Front Office Rankings. Respondents, who were granted anonymity for both their votes and conversations discussing them in exchange for their candor, were asked to submit their top-five front offices, in rank order, based on each franchise’s football operations side. (Respondents were not allowed to vote for their own team.) The results favored stability, with eight of the top 10 teams featuring general managers who have been in place for at least five years. Four of the top six teams, including the top two, promoted their GMs from within. “Ultimately, it’s about results,” the high-ranking exec added, “but how you operate day to day is about your process. (Do) you have a sound process in the draft, free agency (and with) contract structure? Are you matching your aggressive roster building with maybe the life cycle of your team? All of those things go into what (makes) the best front offices.” The scoring system: First-place votes were worth 10 points, second-place seven, third-place five, fourth-place three and fifth-place one. (One respondent split his fifth-place vote among two teams.) 9. Buffalo Bills Total points: 33 (appeared on 9 ballots) Owners: Terry and Kim Pegula General manager: Brandon Beane Head coach: Sean McDermott Beane arrived from the Carolina Panthers in 2017 and, with McDermott, has morphed the Bills into a perennial contender. He traded up to draft quarterback Josh Allen in 2018, built up the roster around him and gave Allen the resources and time to develop from an unpolished QB into one of the league’s best players. “Beane is the best GM in the NFL,” one executive said, adding he “understands people and culture.” After three consecutive losses in the divisional round, Beane and the Bills traded wide receiver Stephon Diggs and moved on from aging, expensive defensive stalwarts. The early returns appear positive for the 3-0 Bills. “I think Beane is a top-five GM,” said a general manager. “He is super smart, number one. It’s never about him. If you look at the drafting and free agents they have signed, how patient they have been with the head coach, got the quarterback right — that was a 50/50 deal. I’m a big fan of him. I’m a big fan of his coach. He’s got all the right stuff, in a tough market, by the way. This is not a place free agents are clamoring to go to.”

@Mikey152 was saying Curtis Samuel will replace Stefon Diggs production in this offense. I remember him extrapolating Samuel's yards per target to mean that he could rack up 1,400 yards in this offense. (Sorry for the call out Mikey, feel free to call me out for the fact that I didn't know if the Bills offense could be a top 10 scoring offense with this receiving group.) Every WR right now is meeting the expectation I had. The sole exception is Samuel who is coming in well below my expectation. The surprise of the season is not that the Bills WRs are performing above their weight class, but that the offense as a whole is efficient as can be despite having such middling WR production. To me the three biggest reasons for that in order are Josh Allen taking his game to another level, the OL being stellar in pass protection, and Joe Brady leaning on his players' strengths and actually gameplanning for his opponents. The WR room is definitely still a weakness overall. But I can't say it's an insurmountable problem until it becomes one on the scoreboard.

Josh actually played right field (and pitcher) in HS. I don't know because we haven't had enough time to see how good Samuel, Hollins, Coleman, Shakhir, MVS are in combination with arguably the best QB in the league at the moment throwing to them. I'll reserve judgement until after 11-12 games or so. It's a long season and guys like Samuel have been playing with garbage QBs their entire careers. We don't know good Coleman is either, but so far he looks pretty solid. Shakhir is obviously a good player. That's been established.

Given the drafting ability of Beane and scheme/development of McDermott.. there’s some tough extension candidates coming up. If Allen thrives in a receiver by committee approach - given how NFL ready a lot of receivers are coming out of college, you can almost treat it like RB where you just keep drafting guys to keep the cupboard stocked. McDermott is elite at secondary coaching and scheme. I think we can add linebacker to that list as well. Given those strengths, I think Rousseau has to be the #1 extension target, because top tier DL/OL are hard to find & they look to be the engine of this new chapter of the Buffalo Bills, along with Josh Allen. Benford & Shakir, I’d probably be willing to offer early extension, fair market but still team friendly contracts in the same range for their positions as Oliver & Brown (and I think we will get those done). Cook, given his receiving ability, warrants a second contract look as well, but it’s definitely further down the list. Bottom Line, long season, but early returns tell me this FO should spend big money & draft assets year after year on the lines and then use day two/day three picks & mid-tier FA’s everywhere else .. especially given Kincaid looks to be a ten year fixture on this team at Tight End, who will only get better.

Obviously, the two most important guys are the GM and HC. And when the HC is a defensive guy, the next most important guy is the OC. We seem to have found a good one. Allen has been through 4 OCs in his career so far and two of them were not good. It would be cool if we could have a Reid-Spags thing for a while - continuity with two guys who are talented on their side of the ball.

I don’t know if receiver by committee will be a thing, but I do know the FA market is due for a slight course correction. CB was kind of similar in the past. Josh Norman was the highest paid CB in the league in 2017. He was making $16M AAV. CB’s were exploding in price tags. The Bills as we all remember, let Gilmore walk and he was making $13M as the second highest. Notably, at the same time, Hopkins was the highest paid WR, also making $16M AAV. Today, there are FIVE WR’s making almost DOUBLE Hopkins’ AAV ($30M). There are 27 WR’s making more than his contract. Contrast that to CB, whose market has cooled considerably. Norman’s record breaking contract would be ranked 12th among CB’s today. There are two active contracts $8M more than Norman’s and the rest are only 4-5M more. Rules favor offense, so I don’t believe that the gap between CB and WR contracts will ever equal out again, but I also believe that teams collectively will realize the market has gone too far.

In a few years he will eventually pass Jim. 1. Kelly - 35,467 yards 237 TD's 2.Ferguson - 27,590 yards 181 TD's 3.Allen - 23,337 yards 174 TD's

I remember early in Josh's career we discussed the concept of "arm talent" and how Josh just didn't have the feel at that time. It's bizarre to see a throwing pro athlete without a range of speeds/deliveries that many HS athletes already have but that was the case. He was largely just beating the defense with his fastball. The touch on the deep ball was the bigger point of emphasis but there were clear holes in his repertoire of available passes. Back then The Athletic story of note was more about how QB's who had experience a shortstop in baseball had a much greater range of throws available to them. Josh was not that type. He was more like Aaron Judge........a big armed right fielder. I've heard Shill Capaccio going on about how much better Allen's mechanics are now but to be really good on short throws you have to be able to do it off platform or without ideal footwork as well. And he's doing that. Seeing Josh finally develop more touch actually gives me hope that he can meet Mahomes as the co-#1 QB in the NFL at least. Without that, it wasn't happening.

Josh Allen needs 8 more TD passes to move into 2nd all time, passing Joe Ferguson. He also needs 4,254 more passing yards as well.

Dude you scared me. I seen this and I was like "I wouldn't write that." Then I'm thinking am I crazy and have an alter personality. I mean I do get mood swings sometimes. Then I click it just to see it wasn't some funky bug where the message board misquoted or something and realize oooohhh it was a portion of one of those dumb "analysts" write ups. I was sold on Brady after last week. Its the first OC Josh has had that actually game plans against an opponents weakness instead of just running the same stuff every week. I remember with like Dorsey or even Daboll we were thinking ok this team is bad against the run but great against the pass. Do you think we would run the ball that week? Nope, bombs away.