BrooklynBills

Football Outsiders actually ranks Pettine's Bills D slightly ahead of our D last year even though we weren't as good against the run under Petting as we were under Schwartz.

I choose the Bengals because we just played them and I was reminded of the fact that Bills and Bengals both picked in the top 5 a few years ago. Also, I was hearing a lot about how we don't have a franchise QB and that if we lost more games that year we could have had Cam Newton. That's true but I think that is cop out for people to apologize for our ineptitude on offense. Also, they've picked behind us in every draft so it's very clear to use them as an example of how they spent their draft picks and we didn't. Also, many people on this board in 2011 were clamoring for the Bills draft AJ Green, and even Andy Dalton. They are a nice parallel. And they absolutely do not have a franchise QB and have an offense that is humming right now and that is setup for future success. I think the Seahawks and 49ers are a good a comparison to where we are right now as opposed to 5 years ago. This is not a Bills are doomed post. I don't think that. I just think we've spent unwisely in the draft the last few years and were reactionary in terms of building our offense. We took a QB when we absolutely had to. We went up to get Watkins because we needed a playmaker. But we overdrafted those players. We've spent a lot of draft picks on offensive need in recent years when it would probably have been wiser to spend our premium draft picks earlier on (4 top 10 picks in 1st and 2nd round) on offense and let the defensive talent come to us later. It is also clear that we've had no plan on offense for a long time. I hope that changes. He's tied with all Bills HCs since Levy then.

That's true about Dalton, but you could argue that they are still setup offensively if Dalton needed to be replaced. All I'm saying is that they have invested heavily in offensive talent over the years and have let them grow together, trusting that they can field a good defense without spending so much value ($$ and draft picks) on it. And Marvin Lewis has a large enough resume, with enough good years on it, that he has kept his job. Every time it seems he is on the hot seat, the Bengals end up having a good year.

Sorry. Be warned. This ended up being a long post. It is safe to say that the Bills offense has not been good for a very long time. In fact, the last time the Bills ranked in the top 10 in Offensive DVOA was the Flutie/Johnson years. The highest they have ranked since that time was 16th in 2011, Chan Bailey's 2nd season as HC. The 2002 Bills(Drew Bledsoe's 1st season at QB) ranked 18th. In contrast, the Bills have actually fielded some great defenses in that time, including the last two seasons in which they ranked 2nd last year and 4th in 2013. They also fielded great defenses from 2003-2004, finishing 7th and 1st, respectively. In fact, the 2004 Bills defense ranks statistically within the top 5 defenses of the last 15 years. ASIDE: DVOA is a very fun stat to examine. It measures overall, offensive, defensive, and ST efficiency over the course of the season and factors out garbage time, fumbles won and lost, and adjusts for strength of opponent. Some fun Bills related stuff you find when looking at it: -The 2004 Bills ranked 3rd overall (1st DEF/ 1st ST/ 21st OFF) behind only NE and PIT. So how did that team not make the playoffs, other than losing that final PIT game(who ranked 1st overall, BTW). Well they had that terrible start, but they also played 5 games against the 3 teams ranked with them in the top 4, 2 against NE, 2 against the Jets, and 1 against PIT, and also the Ravens who finished 8th overall, and went 1-5 in those games. -The late 90s Bills with Flutie/Johnson were a pretty good team ranking 6th overall in both 98 and 99. Even the tumultuous 2000 Bills, ranked 14th in offense and 7th in defense, but a dreadful 31st in ST. Maybe Wade should have just fired Ronnie Jones after all. -Last year's team finished 9th overall, and was mainly due to the Bills have the 2nd ranked D and 4th ranked ST, offense was 26th. (No surprise here). This year, so far the Bills ranked 8th overall(6th O, 10th D, 20th ST) BACK TO TOPIC: Bills defenses have been very good at times, even "elite.". But there offenses have absolutely sucked for more than a decade. Most people attribute this to not finding a franchise QB, which is correct to an extent. But it is very convenient for fans to apologize for the Bills failing to find a QB(they haven't picked 1st overall, other teams got lucky, blah, blah, blah). I'm calling bull **** on that. The Bills team building game plan has flawed and last weeks opponent, the Bengals, are the perfect example. In 2010, the Bills and Bengal were both terrible, finishing 4-12 each. The Bills picked 3rd; Bengal 4th. In examining their drafts since then, the two teams go decidedly different directions. The Bills decide to build up through their defense, spending premium picks on defense; the Bengals shift their focus to the offense. 2011 Draft: Bills first 4 picks are all defense: Dareus, A. Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Searcy Bengal go 3/4 on offense: AJ Green, Dalton, LB in 3rd, Clint Boling(starting G) 2012 Draft: Bills go 50/50 offense/defense: Gilmore, Glenn, TJ Graham, Bradham Bengals do the same but have more picks do to C. Palmer trade: CB, Kevin Zeitler(starting G), DT, WR Sanu, DT, TE 2013 Draft: Bills go more offensive: Manuel, Woods, Alonso, Goodwin, Duke Williams Bengals: Eifert and Bernard in rounds 1 and 2 2014 Draft: Bills: Watkins, Kujo, Preston Brown, Ross Cockrell Bengal: DB, Jeremy Hill, DL, Russell Bodine(starting C) 2015 Draft: Bills: Darby, Miller in 1st 4 rounds Bengal still investing in offense: T, T, TE Now this obviously doesn't include UFAs and later rounds picks because I view those less as strategic roster construction and more of a BPA type situation, but I step back and look at what both teams have been doing and see one team with a clear plan to build on offense long term which is now coming to a head and another with a plan to invest heavily on defense and to draft offense when you have to. The Bengals now have a great offense, which has seen one of their OCs get a HC job and the next likely in line for one. I don't think Dalton is an elite QB but he is now surrounded by weapons, many of whom are on 1st or 2nd contracts so they are cheaper than buying through FA, and they have played together and grown together over time. They've been hit or miss with a lot of the defenders they've taken but they made sure to grab offensive players with a lot of premium picks. The Bills on the other hand have a lot of premium picks on the defensive side of the ball, and have been overdrafting offense recently because of it. They've spent 2 1sts, a 2nd, 2 3rds, and a 4th on WRs and came away with just 2 players(Woods, Watkins). The Bengals on the other hand came away with most of their offense for the same value of picks: Green and Zeitler(2 1st), Bernard(2nd), Boling and Sanu(2 3rds) and Bodine(4th). Don't get me wrong, I love the guys we have on D as players. I'm a big fan of Watkins as a player. But would I rather have the Bengals offense? Absolutely. I don't think you can objectively look at how this Bills team has been constructed and say we have been smart in terms of how the team has been put together and in how we've spent in the draft.

That article doesn't paint Shanahan in a good light in context to what happened with RG3

I'm not going to bag on a guy for not playing if his recurring hip injury is flaring up and he mentally can't get up to play. Nobody had anything bad to say about Chris Borland.

This is a lot of what happened against NE and is a problem for us.

Rodgers was dominated, and the fact that he still could have won the game is testimate to how good he is and not a statement that the Bills D got lucky(also says something about how bad our offense was that day). Manning was not dominated. He wasn't sacked, and even with his 3 INTS, he still averaged big passing numbers per attempt which means he was still hitting some big throws. But again, a game that is probably different if the offense can do anything. Rivers not just had a good game, he crushed us. Brady also. He was better last year than he was this year IMO. Statistically, it is very reasonable to expect a good D to regress the next season. They are much harder to predict from season to season.

Playing Mario as 34 DE is not something I thought we would be seeing a lot of. We don't have the big men to play a base 34, especially now with Kyle Williams out a month so I think we'll see a lot less 34 stuff moving forward.

Highest Pass Yards/Attempt this season: Tom Brady 7.9 (2 sacks) Andy Dalton 7.4 (0 sacks) Highest Pass Yards/Attempt last season: Jay Cutler 7.1 (BTW Kyle Williams with an INT dropping into coverage) Phillip Rivers 10.2 (2 sacks) Ryan Fitzpatrick 7.2 (3 sacks) Matthew Stafford 7.5 (6 sacks) Tom Brady 9.8 (2 sacks) Ryan Tannehill 7.1 (5 sacks) Peyton Manning 8.7 (0 sacks) This D gave up good passing games last year also, several that were statistically worse than the games Brady and Dalton have had this season. Relatively speaking, this is the same group as last year. Considering passing numbers are generally up in the beginning of the season and will taper off somewhat as the season progresses, I think the Bills pass defense is just as good as last season. Their sack numbers are down, but against good, smart QBs last year they averaged around 2/game. All the talk of 34 vs. 43, and scheme fit is just noise. Rex has coached 43 defenses and 34 defenses. He coached the 2000 Ravens 43 defensive line. He switched them from a base 34 to base 43 when he took over the Ravens D in 2005. He has employed a 34 base, a 43 base, the 46 at various times. If anyone is NOT married to a scheme it his him. When he took over the Jets, they had just been playing under Eric Mancini's 34 defense so rather than overhaul their D, he adapted the 46 to it. They need to bring more pressure for sure but I think this amounts to playcalling as much as the players not fitting his defense.

Many coaches are hired directly by the owners but ours is a weird case for sure. Off the top of my head, Bill Belichek was hired directly by Kraft, Pete Carroll was hired by Paul Allen, Andy Reid in KC, Shanahan in Washington. These guys all have/had some kind of roster control. And in each case a GM was hired after the coach was hired. Also, Bowles in NY, I believe, was hired well before they hired Maccagnan. But I can't think of a situation like the Bills where it seems that Whaley organized and conducted the coaching interviews but Rex was ultimately hired by and answers to Pegula. They made that very clear in the press conference when they introduced Ryan. It also seems like Ryan has ALOT of input on the roster here with the additions of Harvin, Taylor, and Incognito, the Bilal Powell rumors, grabbing IK when he was released by the Jets, and cutting Bryce Brown all having Rex's fingerprints on it. Hell, Revis was rumored to have received a large offer from us. I know both Whaley and Ryan answer to Pegula, but the organizational flow chart certainly seems to be Pegula -> Rex -> Whaley. If you followed the Sabres/Regier mess closely, you'd realize though that organizational clarity/direction is not a trademark of a Pegula run sports team.

Jets haven't played anyone great on offense, have 3 new starting CBs, and added arguably the best defensive player in the draft.

2013 draft EJ Manuel(-) Robert Woods(+) Kiko Alonso(+) Marquise Goodwin(-) Duke Williams(-) Jonathan Meeks(Neutral) Dustin Hopkins(-) Chris Gragg(neutral) 2014 draft Sammy Watkins(+) Cyrus Kouandjio(-) Preston Brown(+) Ross Cockrell(-) Cyril Richardson(-) Randell Johnson(Neutral) Seantrell Henderson(+) 2015 draft Ronald Darby(+) John Miller(+) Karlos Williams(+) Tony Steward(neutral) Nick O'Leary(neutral) Dezmin Lewis(neutral) When you lay it out, his draft results look pretty underwhelming. He's used 3 1st round picks on EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins and you cannot argue that the return there has been poor. Hindsight is 20/20, but the Manuel pick and Watkins trade were widely panned nationally and among people who analyze the NFL for a living.

Both are equally as talented and have played lesser offenses. Cincy and NE are 1 and 2 on offense. Giants are 7. The highest rated offense the jets have faced is WSH who was 17th coming into yesterday. The highest rated offense the broncos have faced is KC at 12th, and they needed more than 24 points to beat them. Denver's D was nearly as good as ours last year statistically and the Jets added 3 new CBs, including one of the best in the NFL and the top defensive player in the draft.

Pats crushed us last year on defense. And the bengals put up nearly 500 yards on us 2 years ago. Defense around the league is down historically. Seahawks were #1 in Defensive DVOA last year(3rd year in a row) and yet they wouldn't have ranked in the top 40 historically. The Bills had the best pass defense DVOA last year but historically they would not have ranked in the top 60. It's not as if Rex has taken over 85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, or even the 2013 Seahawks, and made them average. They were not some world beating wrecking crew last year so expecting them to be dominant was wrong. Sacks are absolutely down and it would be nice to see them get more pressure but let's not overstate how good they were last year for the sake of burying them now.

Youre right. Forgot he restructured.

Last year. New England. Vince Wilfork. Ryan is here to install a defensive system they can implement over a long period of time in which they can plug and play new players over time as focusing so much on talent acquisition on every level of the defense and neglecting acquiring offensive talent is a recipe for disaster.

I agree mostly. They are asking guys to play a bit out of position at times and these guys aren't as versatile as maybe they've seemed in the past. Mario is a prototype 43 DE. When Peppers moved into the Packers 34 and was asked to play LB, he lost about 20 lbs to better acclimate to the position. Hughes is pretty versatile, but he is not a dominant pass rusher who can take over a game by himself. I think they'll get it fixed though.

Can't blame Ryan. You can't force him to coach out of his comfort zone. You can blame Pegula for hiring him, but you can't blame Ryan for installing the system that he has coached forever. The only big guy I see them getting rid of Mario, who is overpaid anyway.

Whaley will be fired and they will bring in an experienced personnel person/staff. My prediction: Tom Gamble

They do not have $250 million tied up in the DL. Their contracts are not guaranteed. And most of the guaranteed money is tied up in Hughes and Dareus, the two guys who actually fit fine in any scheme.

Not saying I completely agree about making over the defense either but it's just what I foresee happening. The idea of any kind of "push" was a bit ridiculous considering the state of the offense and QB position. The ideal guy to hire would have been Dan Quinn as his D would fit great with our current personnel and Kyle Shanahan is a great OC, but not many wanted this job given the QB position. As far as Mario goes, his cap number is outrageous for any defensive player not named Watt.

If we continue with Ryan's scheme, id imagine Dareus is played in a more 34 DE position, like Wilkerson was in NY. This is where he projected to when he was drafted actually. I also imagine we will sign/draft a true NT. I've also thought that a good possibility for why they haven't reworked Mario's contract is that they know that he is not going to be here long term at this point and are just waiting for a point that makes sense financially to release him. It's a lot of money tied up in a player who may not fit anywhere in this scheme. This is year one with Ryan. He will either get the players here to play his defense or he will get new players. I said it when we hired him. I would rather install a defensive philosophy/scheme that you could plug and play new guys in over time than become reliant on a highly paid DL.

Pettine D line front=> multiple but a lot of 43 under looks Schwartz=> wide 9 Ryan=> a more traditional 34 front Pettine and Ryan have similar schemes but they are different. This personnel is perfect for playing 43 under front. They lack the huge NT up front to clog the middle to play this defense. Dareus is not that player.

It would be nice to somehow have Gilmore, Darby, Robey, graham, and mckelvin on the field together. Size does not seem to be a major factor in where you play in the secondary in this defense.