finn

Yeah, my admiration for Bass took a nose dive after this miss and the one in the Colts game. He's just another kicker at this point.

Not surprised by the overreactions, because I want to overreact, too. But it comes down to this: the weather evened the playing the field for the Pats against a superior team. The rest was a Belichick team vs. a McDermott team, and, frankly, all else being even, I would put money on Belichick. His teams make fewer mistakes, more clutch plays, and play more disciplined, smart football than more talented teams. We've seen that for 25 years now. But the gap isn't that big, and it's more than made up by the talent gap. The Bills may still win out and make it to the Super Bowl, they really might. But Breida and Knox, god. You simply don't want players like that on your team.

So why not put 11 men within ten yards of the LOS against the Pats? If they do the same, Allen throws it 15 yards, something presumably Jones can't do. Sounds like a punt fest to me, with the punts with the wind flipping field position dramatically and ones against the wind blowing backwards, meaning lots of fourth-down tries. An entertaining game, but not one that will show which team is better.

The wind evens the match, which is a shame because the Bills are the better team, maybe much better.

If I knew that Frank Reich gave an emotional speech before the game, and his team wanted to win it for him--as well as out of revenge for last year's playoff defeat--I would have thought we were in in even more trouble. Still, if McKittrick hadn't muffed that kickoff, the Bills might just have pulled it out. That was one of the worst-timed turnovers I've seen in awhile.

I agree with this take. The team's intensity and focus has wavered all year long, maybe the product of a soft schedule. I was glad to see the focus return in the Saints game; haven't really seen that since the matchup against the Chiefs, or maybe the Titans. If their head is in it, they're better than pretty much anyone, even without White and even with the weather.

I don't agree it's heavily scripted, except in the narratives fed to the media and broadcast crews; I do think there's collusion there to make money and, ideally, influence outcomes. But even if the league isn't concerned about referee corruption, it should at least be concerned about the appearance of corruption, because that will hit them in the wallet. I don't see that concern, nor even concern that many of the refs are incompetent. They're playing with fire on both counts. The NFL is wildly popular now, but it could go south very fast.

It's not a feeling, it's a suspicion; there's a difference. I watch because the refs can't determine the outcomes, they can only influence it. I don't think the players, coaches, or even most refs are biased. But I do think some refs have been given a powerful incentive to see or not see holding, say, on critical plays. Again, it's just too easy to tip the balance if one is inclined to. Taunting, roughing the passer, Offside, pass interference... All judgment calls. It's much more pleasant to think all NFL refs are just ordinary joes doing their job with perfect integrity. I don't blame you for sticking with that belief.

Until recently, I agreed. But think of the incredible sums of money being bet now on every game. The NFL itself doesn't need to be corrupt. All it takes is one organization to contact key refs in key games and offer a deal. Maybe not even a very nice deal. Have you read anything about organized crime? NFL refs should be in a witness-protection type program. I don't think there's a wide conspiracy to fix games. But I suspect that many refs have been persuaded to look for opportunities to ensure the spread is covered (or not covered). So much money is involved, and it's so easy to get away with, that I think it's naïve to think that deliberate bias isn't a major factor in today's game. If World Cup soccer can be corrupted, so can the NFL. Sometimes paranoids have real enemies.

It'll be a game of wind direction, so a quarter for one team to go on offense, then the other, and so on. Field goals and some throws possible one direction, impossible the other. Same with punts. If you have the wind, you stack the box and wait for the run, then make sure you score, because when you don't have the wind, you'll be three and out most drives. A real toss up. It's a shame, because put these teams in a dome, and the Bills would humiliate them.

All good points. But I'm beginning that, with the weather, the best team won't necessarily win. With every punt- and kick return, every intermediate and deep throw, and every field goal an adventure, it will just be a matter of who has fewer turnovers and missed field goals. They might as well have the coin toss determine the winner.

I think the Bills win, but if they lose and the season fizzles, we may look back at this as the "COVID" season, with a list of "if only" laments. If only Dawkins had gotten vaccinated, we would have won the Pittsburgh game; if only Spencer Brown had, we would have won the Jags game; if only Star had, we would have won the Colts and first NE game; If only Beasley, Gabe Davis and whoever else gets sick next had, we would have won the Tampa Bay game and the second NE game. And all these claims are perfectly plausible. But it might not go that way. Maybe Dawkins and Star could return to form, Brown could solidify the line for the stretch run, and could be no one else gets sick. Or, alternatively, maybe the brilliance of Allen and the resilient spirit can overcome the absence and debilitated play of sick anti-vaxxers. If they win it all despite the COVID hits and losing White, well, that would be something.

At least he dodged the well-known, pernicious, deadly, debilitating and widespread side effects of the vaccine. 🙄

One more indication that the media/league nexus wants the Pats to win, and one more worry that the refs will be doing what they can do throw the game to the Pats. I'm not a conspiracy nut, and I'm well aware of the power of confirmation bias, but I'm also well aware of how money corrupts people, and the sums involved in football betting now are staggering. Even if the refs are directly corrupted, it doesn't take much to bias them via subtle hints and pressures. Look for flags that extend Pats drives and derail Bills' drives, eliminate long returns, stop momentum, and so on. In a close game, that's all it takes, as we saw in the Titans game. If the Bills want to win, they need to beat the refs as well as the Pats.

Can't think of an analogue, but consider how Mac Jones, with his limited escability and mobility and so-so arm, would do behind the clown show Allen has had to work with.

Imagine him behind the Pats' line and running the same safe, "game-manager" offense, with a strong running game. He would be completing like 90% of his passes (and of course chomping at the bit). Funny you hear so little intelligent analysis among the most prominent "experts." The facts they don't see or ignore are pretty plain: Allen is a generation talent playing behind a line that's mediocre when healthy, abysmal when not, and yet he's excelling. It's like Barry Sanders all over again.

Just a quibble: Arm strength is more important in out patterns or when trying to zip a ball into a fleeting window, like Allen hitting Kumerow in that seam pattern last year. The velocity on that ball was incredible. I don't see Jones throwing that ball, even thought he's "the best quarterback in the AFC," according to some. To put it plainly, Allen can do everything Jones can do, but Jones cannot do anything near everything Allen can do (diagnose, evade pressure, run, throw in tight windows). Give Allen Jones' O-line, and you'd see startling numbers.

This seems to be the key to stopping their passing game. Jones is being lauded breathlessly everywhere, but he isn't effective when he is pressured and out of rhythm. He's a rookie, so I would think it would be effective to disguise the coverage, blitz the occasional safety or corner, and otherwise take away the short game. Dare him to beat you deep, especially if there's any weather.

This is not a good matchup for the Bills (again). The Bills play a bend-don't-break defense--all the more so with White out--and that plays to the Pats' strengths, with their limited QB, good tight end and excellent line. I don't think they'll go up and down the field on the Bills, but it will be frustrating to watch the 8- and 12-yard gains coming one after another, sandwiched between 4- and 5-yard runs. They'll hold the ball and kick field goals to go with two or so touchdowns. If that's correct, it will be up to the offense to score quite often, a tall order if their subpar line continues alternating between stupid penalties and watch-out blocks. But if the Bills are the team we want them to be, they'll score their usual 30 points, hold the Pats to 20 or so, and order will be restored to the universe.

Which makes you wonder if this one yawning difference is enough to tip the balance to the Patriots. I'd say no, but it's only because the Bills have a better team otherwise (or even) across the board. Our O-line, at least with Mongo and Brown out, may be historically bad, as in a NFL Films special or a Ripley's Believe It Or Not episode, or an exhibit at Madame Tussaud's House of Wax. No one element on the Pats is anywhere near that bad. That the Bills can STILL win is a testament to how good the team is otherwise.

Which depends almost entirely on the line giving him more than a heartbeat to throw.

We get the Titans away with both Henry and A.J. Brown, the Pats* get them at home with neither, but if the Pats* win, the story will be they're superior to the Bills.

I thought he was the second coming of Brady, Brees, and Marino, all rolled into one? If anything negative has been written about that guy in the past few weeks, I haven't read it. The Narrative is taking shape. Once it's established, there's no going back.

(You technically don't need the first two. 🤔) I had the same thought. The defense will drop a notch but will still be strong. If the offense can go up a notch and also be strong(er), they could go all the way, with some luck. Every team has flaws, especially in the AFC. It'll come down to improving the O-line and avoiding more injuries.