finn

I apologize, Bojo.

Going back to that third-down stuff, I'm surprised they didn't pick up on that in their self-study. Third and one means a qb keeper in a big percentage of the cases.

Every...single...time.

Wow. So much for defensive adjustments during the bye.

If I were the network pitching this game, I would stress that these two quarterbacks are the biggest stories of the 2020 season, apart from Covid. Allen has improved like pretty much no other quarterback ever, and Herbert has started better than pretty much any quarterback ever. The upside of both is immense. As good as Watson and Prescott are, neither is likely to improve dramatically. Allen and Herbert could. I think Murray and Jackson will fade like all the run-first qb's before them, and the big three in the next ten years will be Mahomes, Allen and Herbert.

Right. With McDermott saying Morse was "in the mix" and "putting the team first," it seemed like he was thinking Feliciano at center, with (I suppose) Ford and WInters at guard. If that was the case, he had to change his plans. You got to trust their judgment, but it sure looks from here that Morse at center and Feliciano/Boettger at guard is the better lineup. At least Boettger had two good games (NE and Seattle); Winters at his best has been mediocre.

Yeah, but that's just now, at this point in their respective careers. Both should improve, but Allen's trajectory is a lot steeper. No one ever says it, but Allen might well end up better than Mahomes in the long haul. I for one am glad we have Allen. Have you noticed how Mahomes reacts when his teammates mess up? After he threw that interception in the last Raiders game, he peevishly gestured that his receiver should have come back from the ball, throwing him under the bus in front of a national audience and taking himself off the hook at the same time. Do you see Allen doing anything like that? Plus, I like Allen's heart and ferocious will to win. I think history will show the Bills made the right choice.

I'm in the minority, but I never thought Jackson would be a long-term star. I would take him off your list, along with Mayfield, who is already turning out to be mediocre. But Watson is the real thing, along with Burrow and Herbert. Too early to tell about Tua. Both Carr and Tannehill are really good. I'm biased, of course, but I think Mahomes and Allen will turn out to be a cut above all of them. But you're right: The best young QBs are concentrated in the AFC.

What do these lists mean, anyway? I mean, sure, the Chiefs are better than the Jets, but are the Steelers better than the Colts or the Packers better than the Bills? If you look closely, the rankings are just silly. Team A might be better than Team B but worse than Team C, and so on. If you just have to rank (and it is fun), the most accurate means I can think of would be to match one team at a time against all the other teams and imagine them playing ten games in a neutral stadium. For example, if the Bills played the Cardinals ten times, I think the Bills would win six. So they're better and should be ranked above them. Any ranking could only be understood in terms of that one team. In this exercise, I have the Bills behind considerably behind the Chiefs and Saints, slightly behind the Steelers and Titans, about even with the Rams, Packers and Seahawks, slightly ahead of the Bucs, Cardinals and Colts, and considerably ahead of every other team. But you can't conclude they're the fifth best team or even tied for the fifth best, because matchups of other teams would yield different results. All you could meaningfully say is that the Bills are mostly likely in the second rank of teams (i.e., 5-8), without being able to say exactly which other teams would also be in the top two ranks.

It's hard to argue with stats, but I expect the Bills will improve quite a bit in the stretch run. They needed to bye to get healthy and work on their weaknesses, particularly running and stopping the run. If they can do one of these, they'll win at least three of the next six. If they do both, they could win five or six. Of the two, I have more faith they're more likely to figure out how to stop the run, with Klein coming on, Edwards returning to form, and the coaches figuring out something with the weak one-technique position. Maybe Harrison is finally healthy enough to contribute. I'm less optimistic about the run game, although Cody Ford combining with Dawkins gives me hope. I worry that the coaches think Boettger is the answer at guard and that Winters is anything more than a warm body.

Depends who you mean by "we." There were reasons why he was the last of the six qb's taken in the first round.

I'm thinking of his extraordinary start, which recalls Marino, and his accuracy on the deep ball, same. I wasn't thinking personality.

I'm with you. Norman is at the very end of his career and may be finished already. He certainly can't cover deep, as we saw. Jackson is young and not only shows potential, he's already performing at a high level.

The Chargers are due for a win, which makes me a bit uncomfortable. But they're facing a rested, pissed-off Bills team, so I'm not too worried. Herbert is really something. He looks like more mobile Marino.

Valuable depth in any event. We could have used him when Smoke was injured.

This. The media--and even many people here--have locked into an immovable narrative about Allen, that he's inconsistent, with a "good" side and "bad" side that appear randomly. But whenever Brady or Lamar or Murray has a bad game, all the excuses come out to defend the prevailing narrative about them. It's "Well, his line isn't helping him out" or whatever, until they make a play; then it's "See? See? He's God incarnate!" With Allen, it's the other way around. It's "Ok, fine, he's thrown three TDs and run for two more. But just you wait. See! He just overthrew his receiver! He has to overcome his inaccuracy to be a decent qb." Lamar and Kyler could not throw another TD the rest of the season and some people would still rank them among the best QBs, whereas Allen could end up setting Bills records across the board this season and the same people would yawn.

Thanks for asking. Ideally: run defense. Practically speaking: turnovers. The Super Bowl Bills also had a mediocre defense, even with Smith, Bennett and Talley. But they were opportunistic. Nate Odomes with the interception, Smith with the forced fumble, etc. I agree that their options for improving the run d are limited, but more turnovers would help compensate.

How far we've come from "Captain Checkdown" days! I'm absorbing how my kids talk...

Haven't seen a dedicated thread on this topic. A lot of things are working well for the Bills, but I propose they should be working on these areas during the bye week: --Run game, which is essential not just to control the ball and deal with bad weather but also to set up play action. Allen is the best in the league at it but won't be for long if they struggle running the ball like they did in AZ. They should get better here just by returning Morse and Ford and moving Feliciano back to guard. The starters will need to get on the same page as a unit, but at least they're starter-quality players. I'd also like to see more pulls, sweeps, even the old Washington counter-trey. The Super Bowl Bills ran that successfully. The Bills starters have the mobility to pull it off. They're not runs, but I would also welcome more screens. --Tight end play. It's an understatement to say Knox has been a disappointment. I would say he's hurt the team more than he's helped, with his idiot penalties, whiffed blocks (including one against Seattle that led to a sack), and a fumble to accompany his usual drops. But the guy has wheels, and he has shown he can block, especially downfield. I like his energy. Having him play to his potential would give Allen another option when opponents take away the deep ball. If the run game gets going AND Knox steps up, this offense will be as good as any other in the league. Kroft is fine as he his and what he does. --Run defense. Stating the obvious. Not sure what the staff can do without one-technique tackle. Harrison doesn't seem to be the guy, and Zimmer seems inconsistent. Neither can swallow a double team like Ted Washington could, or even Star on occasion. Not much to say. Whoever plays the position just has to be better. This is the area where I feel the least optimistic that the Bills will improve. I find myself hoping Beane will pluck someone off a practice squad somewhere. --Defensive turnovers. I think actually forcing turnovers are already becoming part of the identity of the Bills D, which is wicked exciting. But it couldn't hurt to hit the Juggs machine, practice popping the ball out, getting hands up, and so on. Make it a priority. Getting turnovers will become critical if they can't improve the run D. Otherwise, I'd say they're good to go. Things can be tweaked, but I think the passing game (minus the TEs), the pass rush, the secondary, the wr's, even the linebackers are all doing great. Tremaine is coming on, and we'll have Milano, Levy and Dane back. (Norman can stay out for all I care.) Thoughts?

Been a Bills fan longer than you, lad.

To be fair, he could have had at least two more also, just from the Cardinals game.

This is why I was hoping Beane would trade out 2021 first rounder for a solid one-technique tackle, pretty much the only major hole the Bills have this year. He might have tried, who knows.

Yeah, it's a great team to watch. Good players everywhere.

What's his percentage now? Anyone know?

Well, I wonder. Don't you think it was the Cardinals defense playing terrific football? I mean, they were covering downfield, applying pressure, shutting down the running game, tackling instantly... I mean, they really were playing well. But, yes, two picks that could have been four isn't good playing from Allen, for sure. Something must have been there, maybe him running it. But the Cards looked great on D.