finn

If I were a conspiracy guy, I would suspect that the league is worried about the increasing grumbling that the KC-Buffalo game was rigged, and to quell it is now twisting arms to swing the MVP vote to Allen. Throw 'em a bone to shut 'em up.

Their bias has been well documented. Read Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. But I suspect their bias isn't just unconscious. With billions of dollars hanging on the spread, wouldn't at least some interested parties try to persuade them to influence the game, even in a limited way? Think of a) how many highly motivated parties there are out there now with gambling legalized; b) how many ways refs can be "persuaded" to participate, the many variations of threats and bribes; c) how easy it would be for a ref to cheat; and d) how easy it would be to deny the cheating, especially with the full force of the league backing them, as well as many fans (albeit a dwindling number). All these factors add up to a high probability that at least some games have been influenced by at least one corrupt ref, with higher likelihood of playoff games with their higher stakes. As someone pointed out, cheating might not even be illegal, pushing the probability even higher.

It may be time to admit that the "everybody eats" motto was putting a happy face on a bleak situation. That's not a criticism, either; they were making the very best of a poor WR roster. Shakir and Hollins were terrific in their roles, the rest were frankly mediocre. Brady and Allen played a lousy hand brilliantly, which is why Brady drew interest as a head coach and Allen is the clear MVP.

That's like saying it's not a controversial statement to say Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were great players by pointing out how many home runs they hit in 1998. How many Super Bowls would Mahomes have won if the league, via the refs, weren't putting their thumbs on the scale? I don't care if he goes on to win ten Super Bowls. All but the first few will always carry an asterisk. One of the many disgusting aspects of the cheating, the one I'm least concerned about actually, is that it does diminish what Mahomes and the Chiefs have done. For this reason, rather than denying the cheating (which they have no part of), they should be first in line criticizing it.

It really may be time to move on from McDermott. He's had so many chances, especially in the 13-second game. My nightmare is that Beane will stick with McDermott for all of Allen's prime before even he agrees the man is not the answer or he himself is fired. And when will Allen realize he can't win in Buffalo with this coach and say it's him or me? We have the wrong head coach.

Good point. It's easy to kvetch, especially with hindsight. And maybe Kincaid and Coleman will work out. Maybe.

Three years ago, Beane, needing a cornerback, panicked and traded a fourth rounder to move up to pick 23 for Elam, a bust, after KC traded a third and fourth to move up to 21 for MacDuffie, an All-Pro. The following year, needing a tight end, he traded a fourth to move up for Kincaid at 25, leaving Detroit to take LaPorta, a Pro Bowler, in the second round. Last year, needing a wide receiver, he declined to trade up to 23 for Thomas or stay put for Worthy, opting to trade down for Coleman. In sum, instead of Elam, Kincaid, and Coleman, he could have had MacDuffie, LaPorta, and Thomas. Say that out loud for full effect.

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but this is just the reasoning the league, if it is cheating, wants to hear from fans. "It didn't happen" along with "If it did, it wouldn't have affected the outcome," with plenty of "What about that call?" remarks thrown in. If the cheating is real, you're playing a very important role for the league, which, with you and other ordinary fans defending them at every step, hasn't even bothered to dispute the charges (although they're careful to come down hard on the more damaging criticism from players and coaches). I'm skeptical of all conspiracy theories because of motivated reason (you find what you're looking for and disregard the rest). But sometimes there is some truth under the suspicion. So I play the "believing game" to explore the given question. For a moment, put aside your skepticism that the league cheated and believe that it did. How would they go about altering the result? What would they do and not do? For example, would they urge the refs to be blatant or subtle? Would they tell them to try to throw blowouts or only very close games? At the end of those sorts of questions, I get the KC-Buffalo game. Even then, I'm not persuaded there was cheating. But factor in the billions of dollars balancing on the outcome, it seems blindingly naïve that conclude that there wasn't.

No way I'm watching the Fraud Bowl with the incessant glazing of Mahomes. Makes me physically ill to hear that garbage. But first signs of recovery: I'm just beginning to think about the draft. I hope Beane realizes his team doesn't just have go be better than KC; it has to be a LOT better to overcome the cheating. Somehow he has to give Allen receivers of Bengals caliber and a defense of KC caliber, or even one of these. I know he's been trying. The Von Miller contract was--and will continue to be--an epic disaster, through no fault of Beane's, as was the Diggs contract albatross last year. If both those players had worked out, things would likely be different, even with the cheating.

Right. The better question might be, "Is Allen actually compensating for McDermott and Beane?" You can give McD credit for building a team culture, but it's hard to deny he's been outcoached in the playoffs every year, consistently one step behind his peers. And you can give Beane for finding late-round and free agent gems, but the overall talent on this team is below average, outside of the supernova at quarterback. Sometimes the truth is so blindingly obvious we don't see it. Allen IS this team. Without him (i.e., with a Tua type at QB), they'd have a top-ten pick in the draft this year. I suspect his teammates know this.

Good thread. The answer could be a blend of two or more of the four options you lay out. McDermott and his staff might be excellent at developing players but less good, maybe even below average, at game-day preparation and management. So they develop a sixth-round cornerback into an All-Pro quality player but are surprised by Mahomes running the ball every other play. They build one of the best offensive lines in football but don't prepare them for a team that stuffs their most successful plays. So McD could be excellent at one aspect of his job and mediocre at another. Same with Beane and his people. He finds gems in late rounds and free agency, but he whiffs a lot, especially in the critical early rounds. His record in both areas is arguably better than most teams--impressive considering he's drafting so late--but he's falling behind teams his main competition: KC, Baltimore, Philly, and Detroit, all of which are somehow are finding and keeping better rosters. I mean, we were upset that only Allen and Dawkins were named to the Pro Bowl, but who else should have gone? Benford, Brown, Cook, and....? Take off the rose-colored glasses and look candidly at the Bills' roster. Aside from these five excellent players, you see few very good ones and otherwise a whole lot of "adequate" or worse: Kincaid, Knox, Coleman, Samuels, Cooper, Hamlin, Douglas, Rapp, Epenesa, Jones, Miller, and Bass. On the other hand, he was a magician finding Douglas and Floyd last year, and Cooper and Hollins (both for cheap) this year, when he was in salary cap hell because of prima donna Diggs. And if Miller hadn't been injured, the Bills might have won a Super Bowl by now. In short, I would argue that McDermott is elite in developing players and a winning culture, but he is a grade below his best peers at game-day prep and management. And Beane is one of the best in the league at drafting and free agency, but he is not as good (or lucky) as Veach, Roseman, DeCosta (Baltimore's GM) and Brad Jones (Lions).

But can you point out bad calls for the Chiefs that were pivotal? I don't think you can. Assume for a moment the league wants the Chiefs to win but doesn't want to be obvious about it. Would you have all or even a big majority go against the Chiefs? Of course not. That would be a mistake. But neither would you gamble with your Golden Goose by allowing the Bills to gain home field advantage. So you make sure the Chiefs have that cushion of a game or two during the regular season, and you make sure as hell the calls go the Chiefs' way in the playoff games. I rarely am persuaded by conspiracy theories. For one thing, confirmation bias is just too strong in our species. But even a paranoid person might have real enemies. When you consider the billions and billions of dollars that now hang on every game, it's naïve to think some party has figured out how to put a thumb on the scale somehow. The Bills were not going to win this game. They were/are better than the Chiefs, but not by enough of a margin to overcome the calls of referees who were instructed (threatened, bribed, whatever) to tip the game when they could get away with it. Show me a call of the same impact that went against the Chiefs and I'll rethink my position. The fix is in, people. When it comes out, as it will eventually, it'll be a big scandal, and the accomplishments of the Chiefs, an excellent team that might have won some of these playoff games without help, will forever carry a big asterisk. It stinks no matter how you look at it.

Precisely. I think the Bills would have won in a fair game, but given they lost, Brady's failure to prepare and respond is the story. Also, the quality-control person, whoever that is, should be fired. Brady's patterns were as transparent as air to KC.

I'm in the same place, brother. Am I too invested, to the point of being a bit of a loser, living off the ups and downs of an NFL team instead of living my own life with its own ups and downs? Frankly I think the answer is yes. It's probably healthier to find ways to invest my energy in the real people around me, take pleasure (and pain) in my own plans. The genius of professional sports--the NFL in particular, I think--is its cyclical nature. Soon after the fraudulent Super Bowl is played and the insufferable glazing of Mahomes stops, talk about the draft starts, like little shoots of green in a frozen garden, and I find myself thinking about the Bills again as I go about my life. "If they draft a big DT and sign a real safety and WR, they could go all the way!" Hope rises again, and that's a powerful drug. That's why the media and fan narratives are so important to us, I think; they're the real measure of how the Bills (which is to say we) are doing. It's not just the standings. You identify too closely with your team, the talking heads aren't just describing them as winners or losers, they're talking about us, and that's hard to shut out, even when your team loses. I'm sure, like me, you were right there suffering all those years during the Drought, right? Each year thinking, "This year might be different. This year they [I] will win." But let's not kid. If this has been my pattern for decades--decades!--there's no way I'm going to give up this drug, especially with someone like Allen as quarterback. They're too close. If (here I go) they're just a little better next year, and the ball bounces their way a few more times, they'll overcome the NFL's thumb on the scale and win the Super Bowl. After that, it's all gravy.

I'm getting some clarity by now, thinking a) the refs were biased (and I didn't fully believe that before); b) the Bills were outcoached on both sides of the ball pretty badly; and c) the Bills overachieved with a roster that is mediocre across the board except for Allen, Cook, and the offensive tackles. Putting b) and c) together, the coaches deserve accolades for getting this far with this roster, but they were spanked by better coaches in the final game. To be fair, they had the bye week, a huge, deeply unfair advantage. Bottom line: bitter about the cheating, grateful for all those fun weeks, not yet ready to think about next year.

That's good to hear. After this year, I would be happy to draft one starter-quality safety and two or even prospects to develop. Indulging in hindsight, I wish Beane had traded up for Cooper DeJean instead of down for Coleman. I realize Coleman may still end up to be terrific, but DeJean would have made a much bigger impact this year.

It's worth considering what we'd be saying about the Bills if Kincaid had caught that pass and the Bills went on to score and win. The commentary is almost exclusively negative about everyone concerned, but if they had won it would have been almost exclusively positive. That's irrational, since everything else would be the same. I do think the KC coordinators did a better job than ours, but, again, we're looking at the game through a particular lens; you find what you're looking for, and if the Bills win, we'd be talking about Brady's excellent calls, Allen's clutch performance, Babich's adjustments, and so on. (Even more satisfactorily, the world would be dumping on Mahomes, who is a godhead to the media.) Reality is more dull than joy and despair. The reality is that Allen is incredible, the line is superb, and Babich and Brady have done an excellent job given the roster they've been dealt. Also reality: Outside Allen and the line, the team really is no more than average. Beane has a lot of work to do to get to the level of the Ravens and a healthy Lions team. Meanwhile, no one will beat KC until the league decides it's time to choose another cash cow.

Imagine doing something different than what is on your film. Revolutionary. And preparing for different looks from what your opponent has shown. Astounding innovation. This may be unfair, but it sounds like Brady's attitude was "Why fix it if ain't broke?" and Babich's was "We're well prepared, but only for what they've done in the past!" I hope both coordinators learn from this undressing.

I agree. In fact, someday the evidence will come out, and it will seem obvious to everyone, in hindsight, that of course the league had a finger on the scale. As you say, it's SO easy to sway the outcome of a game, and the stakes are SO high that it's ludicrously naïve to think they (or some other party, like gamblers or the mob) wouldn't jump at the many chances to cheat. Just follow the money.

Thought experiment: Imagine that the refs are in fact biased: they're instructed to "massage the outcome" as one commentator put it. How would those responsible (the cheaters) want everyone involved--players, coaches, fans, the media--to respond to complaints? Answer: They would be thrilled by much of the reaction here and elsewhere: "Boo hoo"; "losers whine, winners win"; "too bad you suck"; "it's lame to blame the refs," even "wait till next year." In other words, if there is cheating (a big if), people sneering at those who are objecting are playing the role of stooge for the cheaters. Useful idiots.

No one will agree with this, but I think it comes down to chance. The Bills had only a slim chance to win the first time they met KC (slim partly because a witless McDermott brought a tennis racquet to a gun fight), but they had a 98.5% chance the second time (again, McDermott stopped them), and an almost even last year and this year. (I do give McDermott credit for other things, btw.) The laws of probability say that they should have won at least one of these, with a smaller chance of winning two, and a very small chance of winning three or four. Sometimes you flip a coin four times and it comes up heads each time.

Oh, I'm quite serious. Allen can do everything Mahomes can do, but Mahomes can't do everything Allen can do. Don't give me the hardware argument, either. Swap the two quarterbacks; you think Saint Patrick could take this otherwise-average Bills teams this far? If so, you either bought into Groupthink or aren't being honest. Nothing personal! You're a Bills fan, which absolves almost all sins.

Good lord, what an athlete Allen is. The other 31 quarterbacks in the league--including His Saintlihood--would have been sacked on that play and likely fumbled. Allen not only gets off the pass, he throws a ball downfield that bounces off his receivers arms. That is just extraordinary. Back to the 24-7 coverage about what how great Mahomes is....

Give me a hundred chances to take Mahomes or Allen, and I would take Allen every time. On the other hand, I would take Creed Humphrey over Boogie Basham and McDuffie over Elam. They can keep Worthy, though. Sounds like an a-hole.

Play action on the tush push, please.