finn

Beane's motivation level doesn't change year to year; only his results change. He took a big gamble with Allen. That easily could have blown up. His critics were right: no QB had ever improved his accuracy dramatically after he was drafted. Ever. Did Beane know that Allen would be the one exception? I'm sure he hoped so, but Allen could easily have been one of the many, many quarterbacks with huge potential who end up busts. Give Beane credit, though: He went all-in on a inside-straight draw and nailed it on the River. Took guts. I also disagree that he hasn't been aggressive since drafting Allen. Just in the first two rounds moved up for Edmunds, Ford, Elam, and Kincaid. He also traded a first-rounder and a fourth for Diggs. He's no wall flower. But neither has he been particularly effective. As a drafter, he's ok, not bad, above average. But I agree with the OP that he needs to go get a blue-chip prospect, someone who will PROBABLY be great, not someone who might be, maybe. Trouble is, we're going to be the first people who squawk if he doesn't address team needs across the board. For example, say he trades both seconds and the first to move up to 12 or 13 to draft one of the best CBs. Now he has just the two fourths, a bushel of fifths, and change for WR, DE, and DT, along with a punter and LB depth. He'd need to get very lucky to land very good players at that point. So we can't have it both ways. Be nice to have a Bruce Smith to go with Allen, but are we ok with drafting him and starting Rasul Douglas, DeQuan Jones, and Josh Palmer?

I have high hopes for Babich this year. He didn't have much to work with last year, with an anemic rush and a bench warmer starting at safety all year, yet his defense contributed in many games by actively creating turnovers. If Beane gives him some playmakers, and if McDermott keeps his mitts off--both big "ifs"--he has the potential to make this defense potent in its own right. He did a great job as linebackers coach.

Exactly. And that's pretty disappointing for a first-round draft pick (with a fourth-round pick thrown in). Based on their production to date, he and Coleman would have been reasonable fourth-round picks. They could both turn it around, though. Kincaid needs more muscle, Coleman needs to want it more.

Agree. If the Bills don't win a Super Bowl in the Allen era, we'll be rueing all the chances Beane had and didn't take, or the chances he took but that blew up, like going all-in on the 33-year old Von Miller. The good news is that there is still time. Allen is doing more with less than his peers. If you give him what Mahomes had and Jackson and Burrows have, he'll do the rest.

Any award or praise of Burrow's play has to carry an asterisk. He's playing with not one but two elite receivers, much like Mahomes did all those years.

I'm saying he has to draft better. If an elite player appears to be falling to him, then by all means stay put. He shouldn't trade up mindlessly, but neither should he continue to settle for second-tier players year after year in the hopes that they may become elite someday.

And that's with a mediocre (but generational!) quarterback throwing to him. As others have said, Beane might have tried and failed to find a trading partner to land Thomas. But maybe he should have looked higher up in the draft, packaging a third instead of the fourth he might have been offering, or even a third AND fourth. Would you trade Coleman, Ray Davis, and DeWayne Carter for Thomas? Would you trade Kincaid, Torrence, and Dorian Williams for a lockdown corner in Christian Gonzales? All these years, Beane has been choosing quantity over quality. In his mind, better three pretty good players instead of one great one. So what does he have? A pretty good team and a pretty good coach to go with an incandescently great quarterback. It shows you the greatness of Allen that he's taken the team as far as he has with no help. In fact, in the clutch, his teammates aren't even "pretty good": the receivers drop passes, the kicker chokes, the defense doesn't show up, and his coaches are unprepared and utterly predictable. Beane's response: Bring in more pretty good players. Maybe the pretty good coaches will develop them. He...just...doesn't...get it. Allen needs Brian Thomas, not Keon Coleman. He needs Brock Bowers, not Dalton Kincaid. He needs Micah Parsons, not Hamlin and Oliver and Bernard and Epenesa. Message to Beane: You have TEN picks in this draft. Forget "pretty good." Do your job and get an elite player.

That does seem to be Beane's pattern. He'll likely move up in the first round and package some of his fourth- or fifth-round picks to land a third-round pick, and more late picks to move up in other places. To myself, I've been predicting he ends up picking just seven players in the end. I just wish he had a better record of moving up: Edmunds, Ford, Elam, maybe even Kincaid... When I see "Trade!" my blood goes cold. I wonder if his scouts are muttering to themselves every year, "Just stick to the board, just stick to the board, just stick to the board..."

You're better than #3 at a glance.

I don't think he has. As you say, the players he's signed, along with Palmer at WR, might be slight upgrades, but I don't see them as much more than than. So far, Beane is just shuffling his feet. The draft might produce a difference maker, but how often does that happen, picking so late? No, as fun as it is hearing about new players joining the Bills, objectively speaking, this new-look line will likely get the same results as the last two years. That doesn't mean I won't be hoping that Bosa will light it up from one side, freeing up the monster in Groot on the other side while Ogunjobi and Oliver collapse the pocket. Hey, it's the offseason!

Isn't he a poor tackler?

How about a fourth safety? I like him on the roster in case of an emergency, but not the first one in when (not if) Rapp injures himself or Bishop. Having him back there is like a huge marquee blinking "Throw! Throw! Throw!"

Well, yeah, anyone is going to be injury prone if overused, and a player can be more susceptible to injury if he's too small for the position, like Bernard. I'm just objecting to the superstition that so often gets attached to the designation. A player could just be unlucky with a series of unrelated injuries, yet he'll be lumped in with the Bernards and Milanos who are punching above the weight class and whose bodies can't take the punishment.

"Injury prone" is a fallacy if applied to future prospects. Yes, Bosa has been injury prone, but that doesn't mean he will continue to be., as long as he's healed up. Why would he be more likely to hurt his ankle or back or shoulder than any other player? Because he's unlucky? That's voodoo talk. For all we know, he could be the healthiest player in the league going forward.

Picking at the end of every round is hard, but Beane hasn't shown much imagination. For example, in 2021, I wanted him to draft Creed Humphrey even though he had Mitch Morse, and take a flyer on the injured Trey Smith in the fifth or sixth round. Similarly, this year I want him to take Shannon Revel in the first round. He would have been one of the first cornerbacks taken, but he got injured last year and is still recovering. Sign Rasul or Dane Jackson for a year to let Revel recover and develop, and voila, you have one of the best young CB tandems in the league in 2026, and maybe sooner.

Keep your own, just like Marv always said. Still plenty of cap space for Bedford and Cook, too, sounds like. Nice work, Beane--and McDermott. Their job building a team and culture that players want to stay part of is paying off off the field as well as on it. Well, looks like the draft will be have to be the difference between AFCG and Super Bowl next year. With ten picks to work with, Beane has capital to get creative. Cornerback has become a yawning chasm with the decline of Rasul and the undeniable bust that is Elam. It would be nice to have Dane Jackson back as a CB3, but the CB2 probably is going to have to be first-round draft pick. In a deep DL draft, Beane can pick up his DE and DT in the second round. A speed WR in fourth, if the pick survives Beane's itchy trade-up finger, a safety with the other fourth. Sounds good, but let's be honest, the pass rush won't be much better, the secondary will be deeper but still not stellar, the linebackers a pair of injuries waiting to happen, and the wide receiver room still as bland as ever. Best case scenario: Bishop shines, the new CB2 is a home run, Rousseau becomes a monster playing on his natural side (with Von gone), Milano and Bernard finally stay healthy, and either Coleman or Palmer is a revelation. If all these pieces fall into place (and everyone stays healthy), they...could....go... all... the...way!

And Floyd. Beane doing what he does best, just filling out the team. He doesn't do as well with splash signings or early draft picks, but let him cook with his own ingredients at his own pace, and Josh will take care of the rest, provided that McDermott continues to stay out of his way. That will get them to the AFCC. To get to the Super Bowl? McDermott will need to get out of Babich's way, too.

He checks most of the boxes except speed and production, so who knows. But why didn't the Rams bring him back? And is the high price Beane paid a reflection of the competition he had landing this guy?

It's just probability. Compare it to poker, for instance. If you're one of the strongest players in the tournament, you'll likely get to the final table most years, as the Bills have done (playoffs), and some years you'll get to the final two, heads-up match, as the Bills have done twice now (AFC championship). If you're as good your opponent, over time you should win half the games, but in the short term, you may win more or less than half. If you've played poker, you know the frustration of your opponent landing a straight with a 5-6 off-suit. The point is that probability will even out over time, will regress to the mean. If the Bills stay cool, they'll go to the Super Bowl soon, maybe repeatedly. The real danger is (besides being outcoached 😒) is going on tilt. I think that's what happened to the Kelly-era Bills after wide right. Kelly was a mess against the Redskins, and Thurman melted down against Dallas. They lost their mojo. The good news is that losing mojo or confidence isn't in Allen's DNA. He might try too hard, but he's not going to choke. McDermott will, as we've seen, but as long as he continues handing the game to his quarterback to win, they'll get there, probably (!) this year or next year.

How about he gets no sacks and little pressure for that price, and, worse, he plays on crucial third and long situations, meaning a better player does not? Vet minimum or say goodbye.

This is the key point, I think. McDermott's defenses have always played soft--don't give up the big play, wait for them to make a mistake. To give him credit, that does work in the regular season. But it fails spectacularly in the playoffs year after year after year, especially because he doesn't introduce new wrinkles, like KC offense did against the Bills in January. Yes, he'll show one coverage then switch to another, but that's pretty routine nowadays and good QBs can adjust. Worse, he doesn't seem to prepare his team for wrinkles from their opponents, like Mahomes running. (Hardly an innovation, but his team wasn't ready.) There are signs he might be starting to get it. Beane reportedly looking for corners who can play man as well as zone, for instance. But this defense needs a philosophical overhaul. If I had executive control over this team, I would instruct McDermott to hand over the defensive reins entirely to Babich. If McDermott remains in control, calling his soft coverages and weak rushes against the Burrows, Mahomes, and Jacksons of the league, the Bills will always lose in the end, no matter how much Allen scores.

Maybe also not choke them, either, eh?

Agree. Stop accommodating the geriatric Miller and let Groot rush from the right side, ideally opposite a quality player on the left side, and you'll see results. It really is time to cut Miller. He gave us half a season for $20 million, and is an expensive waste of a roster spot. Sign Josh Sweat or trade for Hendrickson, and draft a DE with one of the two second-round picks to join Javon Solomon. Together with a big, active DT and Oliver, that would be a real line.

Edmunds in Chicago, Gabe in Jacksonville, Diggs in Houston... the players we let go aren't showing too well. Maybe Beane does know what he's doing after all.

Sounds familiar.