finn

Yeah, it's not clear yet how good this team is. The 4-2 record might be masking a truly rotten defensive substructure that a one-dimensional offense can't bail out in the long term. OR it could be that the reinforcements will turn around the defense, while Brady will make better use of Kincaid, Cook, Shakir, and Coleman (??) so his HOF quarterback isn't forced to be a Trent Edwards clone. I think the writing is on the wall: Unless Beane does something now, this team WILL (not might) lose again in the playoffs. He gave up a first-round pick and more for Diggs, so we know he has it in him. He can't afford both a CB and a WR, but he probably can swing one and would have to cross his fingers on the other. I'm not optimistic. I think he'll give up a fifth for a meh CB and hold pat on offense. But at least he'll have his top picks for more defensive lineman next year!

Stopping him from scrambling is the way to beat Mahomes. He relies heavily on that, despite his reputation as a passer. Contain him and you can sack him.

Did you see the two injury reports? Nothing but "Full participation" on the Chiefs side and "Did not participate" on the Lions side.

Can you imagine if Bishop gets hurt? Then we'd have Poyer playing next to Tre White. Get out the canes and that old-timey music!

Nah, they're going to win handily and continue to win right up to the Bills game. I'm bracing for all the chatter about how they're back, and they will be. Like Harry Potter and Voldemort, the only team that can stop them is the Bills. It has to be the Bills.

I so wanted Beane to draft Xavier Watts in the second round. I get it that d-line is premium, but he went too far, and I don't say that in hindsight. Three expensive free agents and three of the first four draft picks necessarily means you're neglecting other positions. To me, the most glaring area of neglect was safety, with receiver right behind. Rapp is no more than adequate, better as a backup and mentor (the Poyer role now) to Bishop and someone like Watts. I realize how easy and unfair it is to criticize Beane from an armchair, but I do think he fixated on penetrating linemen to a fault. We're seeing that fault playing out in real time right now. It's a good team with three possibly fatal weaknesses (run defense, the secondary, and wide receiver) that he didn't address well enough in the offseason, largely because he doubled and tripled down on pass rushers. To be fair, maybe Hoecht and Obiwan will be difference makers. We'll see. But I doubt Rapp will suddenly become anything more this year's Hamlin.

I forgot about that! Wow, between that episode and this one, he's not doing so well, is he.

Wonder if it's CTE.

I have a different take. I think they've been slack, undisciplined, not hungry, not surprising after so many Super Bowl appearances. But the talent is all there, and I think they're going to get their act together, beating a banged-up Detroit team at home and so make a statement that they're back. If the Bills lose, they go into the bye with two consecutive losses and only one convincing win, despite what looked like a pretty soft schedule. Meanwhile, I think the Chiefs beat the Commanders at home, too, and of course the Raiders, also at home, so they're 5-3 playing the Bills at 5-2 (assuming they beat Carolina). They would have the "We're back!" momentum, while the Bills will have had the bye, giving them not only some rest and time to reset but also bring the reinforcements up to speed. As I said elsewhere, I don't see how this year will be any different than any other year if these teams meet in the playoffs--except if the Bills get the first-round bye. That's mostly why this matchup is key.

A calm and accurate take, thanks for this. I don't have examples at hand, but many Super Bowls have been won with flawed teams. It's normal to lose games, even to look quite bad for stretches during the season, and still pull it together in the playoffs and win. Even without additions at CB or WR, this team will almost certainly make the playoffs and could even go all the way. But the probability is higher if Beane does make moves to shore up WR and CB. Even Allen can't do much with this mediocre WR corps, and good QBs will continue to feast on Trey White. The Chiefs are looking very dangerous. This franchise cannot absorb a fifth consecutive playoff defeat to Mahomes.

Is that the one in which McDermott kept punting on fourth down at midfield and kicking field goals, hoping his defense would stop Mahomes, which it never could (or would), instead of trusting Allen and going all out for the win? Or is it the one Allen did win the game in one of the most extraordinary feats of quarterback the league has ever seen, only for McDermott's defense to give it away in a matter of seconds? I'm sure you're not referring to last year's playoff game, when McDermott's defense gave up 32 points. Yes, the team--the defense in particular--has been unprepared to play every time they have faced KC in the playoffs (to say nothing about the loss to Cincinnati). Does anyone want to make the case that this year will be somehow different, with McDermott still in charge of preparing the defense?

"Two new ones" ("ones?") is also a weak choice. Buscaglia is great; his writing isn't. At least he's human. Pretty soon, it'll all be AI.

Good post. I suspect that the many variables in play make it hard to come to simple conclusions. For instance, McDermott might be a terrific coach in the regular season but a choker in the playoffs, a charge that was thrown at Andy Reid and Dan Reeves. He might also be very good in some ways, such as building a winning culture, but not in others, like game-day coaching. I do think McDermott deserves credit for much of the team's success in the Allen era. A lesser coach might have given us a version of Herbert's Chargers or Marino's Dolphins. So we should appreciate him for that. But the 13-seconds game is a real black mark on his record, as is the team's repeated defeats to the Chiefs. It won't be pretty if the Bills lose again this year to Reid and Mahomes.

Maybe. It could also be the Pats' combination of an excellent d-line and excellent corners, which simultaneously shut down the run and downfield throws. It's not an unbeatable combination, not with their relatively weak linebackers and safeties, but unfortunately Brady wasn't up to the challenge. He seemed puzzled in the first half especially and never did find a real answer, which now seems blindingly obvious: Use Cook (zero targets) and Kincaid (just 54% of snaps). When he was stopped, Brady neglected his two best weapons. He also inexplicably left Hawes on the bench. You can blame Coleman with good reason, but I think it was Brady who s--t the bed.

Your conclusion doesn't necessarily follow from the data. For all we know, they could break records in points and yardage if they did open up. Allen attempted a pass 20+ yards just three times on Sunday, including the gimmicky flea flicker. That's hardly wide open. I think they are in fact holding back but for good reason: they don't have the horses. Palmer is no more than what he was for the Chargers, Coleman is a disappointment so far, and Samuels, Shavers, and Moore are no more than complementary pieces. Only Kincaid, Shakier, and Cook are real assets, and none of them can stretch the field. Teams are starting to figure out that they even Josh Allen needs something to work with, and if you stop the running game, you stop the Bills. No run, no play action, and little chance that anything but short passes will work, not with these receivers. We don't need to wait for the bye to take stock. The team needs a deep threat as wide receiver, along with a dependable cornerback to replace Tre White. That's given that the pass rush and run defense will improve with the reinforcements and no one gets hurt. Without these two additions, we're looking at another letdown in the playoffs.

Do you think the reverse is also true, that the high-win QB's had amazing head coaches?

How did a really good defense let Carolina (Carolina, just to be clear) score 30 points on them? Right, but we have a Hulk.

Fair point. I'm not saying McDermott is a bad coach, just that the excellent win percentage people point to as evidence of his prowess is dubious given the quarterback he's been bestowed. It's like saying "Look at all the championships Scottie Pippen won! He's obviously one of the best players of all time."

Beane has invested a lot in quick pressure after seeing from their two Super Bowl defeats that this is the way to beat Mahomes. Oliver, Hoecht, Ogunjobi, Walker, Sanders, Bosa... they're all penetrators, not edge setters or run stuffers. But he may have put spent too many resources there, at the expense of players who can tackle, cover, and stop the run. If you're good at only one thing and suck at everything else, other teams catch on fast. Not to put it all on Beane. Maybe he was expecting McDermott and his defensive staff would do a better job than they have. Anyway, plenty of blame to go around. The defense still has time to turn it around, as we keep telling each other.

Well, let's look at the NE game, since the Bills lost and maybe Brady messed up because he wasn't using his best receivers. Here is what I would say is the rank from best to worst, with their snap count (distorted because Cook and Ty also run the ball): Cook (72%), Kincaid (54%), Shakir (63%), Ty Johnson (12%), Palmer (52%), Coleman (62%), Knox (56%), Shavers (25%), Samuel (49%), Hawes (29%), Ray Davis (6%), and Gilliam (8%). Lost in the data is how Cook and Ty Johnson were used as receivers. They weren't, which I would say is problem one. The second problem is Coleman's high snaps. He's a weak blocker from what I can tell and is an exceptionally limited receiver. Why is he getting so many snaps, especially when Kincaid, arguably the only only star on the receiving roster, is getting a lot less? Lots of caveats: no context, small sample size, etc. But I would say that Brady needs to use Kincaid a LOT more and Coleman a lot less. I would see what Shavers can do; he can't do much worse than what Coleman has shown.

You know, I'm tired of hearing that win percentage stat trotted out every time anyone suggests McDermott is a mediocrity. Dick Jauron could win with Allen playing for him.

Yeah, I think it's pretty plain that this Bills team is good but not great. I think the offense will bounce back, and the defensive reinforcements, especially Oliver, should make a difference, but they're no juggernaut the way they have been in the past. The only real hope of going all the way is that no other team looks great, either. Or that Hairston is a revelation and someone tells Brady that Kincaid is on the team. Or Beane trades for a CB and WR. Or all of these things. Anyway, a good humbling may be just what the team needed.

Right. I mentioned elsewhere that the Pats are the first team to figure out that if you stop Cook, you stop the Bills. Allen could have eaten a sandwich on some of those pass plays, and even then his receivers evidently couldn't get open, or at least not when Allen was looking their way. Take-away: Elite receivers make so much money for a reason: They really do make a difference. "Everyone eats" is happy talk for "Our wide receivers are mediocre." Yes, the offense can and will still carry the defense to win a lot of games, but what an appalling waste of Allen's prime. It's like making Usain Bolt race wearing mud boots.

I'm not sure what to make of Brady. Is he holding back, maybe at McDermott's request, playing conservative ball to take the win? Or is this all he can do with the best quarterback in the league, a terrific line (and line coach) and running back, and the best tight-end trio in the league--against bottom-half teams? Maybe Babich is struggling because of a dearth of talent to work with, but you can't say the same of Brady. My growing sense is that he's just a guy who happened to be around when McDermott needed someone to take over. I credit him for turning things around, and I'm not giving up on him yet, but he's been dealt pocket aces and so far this year he's playing like he has 5-7 off.

I missed the game. How did the refs give them the points? I couldn't tell from the highlights.