finn

Well, yeah, anyone is going to be injury prone if overused, and a player can be more susceptible to injury if he's too small for the position, like Bernard. I'm just objecting to the superstition that so often gets attached to the designation. A player could just be unlucky with a series of unrelated injuries, yet he'll be lumped in with the Bernards and Milanos who are punching above the weight class and whose bodies can't take the punishment.

"Injury prone" is a fallacy if applied to future prospects. Yes, Bosa has been injury prone, but that doesn't mean he will continue to be., as long as he's healed up. Why would he be more likely to hurt his ankle or back or shoulder than any other player? Because he's unlucky? That's voodoo talk. For all we know, he could be the healthiest player in the league going forward.

Picking at the end of every round is hard, but Beane hasn't shown much imagination. For example, in 2021, I wanted him to draft Creed Humphrey even though he had Mitch Morse, and take a flyer on the injured Trey Smith in the fifth or sixth round. Similarly, this year I want him to take Shannon Revel in the first round. He would have been one of the first cornerbacks taken, but he got injured last year and is still recovering. Sign Rasul or Dane Jackson for a year to let Revel recover and develop, and voila, you have one of the best young CB tandems in the league in 2026, and maybe sooner.

Keep your own, just like Marv always said. Still plenty of cap space for Bedford and Cook, too, sounds like. Nice work, Beane--and McDermott. Their job building a team and culture that players want to stay part of is paying off off the field as well as on it. Well, looks like the draft will be have to be the difference between AFCG and Super Bowl next year. With ten picks to work with, Beane has capital to get creative. Cornerback has become a yawning chasm with the decline of Rasul and the undeniable bust that is Elam. It would be nice to have Dane Jackson back as a CB3, but the CB2 probably is going to have to be first-round draft pick. In a deep DL draft, Beane can pick up his DE and DT in the second round. A speed WR in fourth, if the pick survives Beane's itchy trade-up finger, a safety with the other fourth. Sounds good, but let's be honest, the pass rush won't be much better, the secondary will be deeper but still not stellar, the linebackers a pair of injuries waiting to happen, and the wide receiver room still as bland as ever. Best case scenario: Bishop shines, the new CB2 is a home run, Rousseau becomes a monster playing on his natural side (with Von gone), Milano and Bernard finally stay healthy, and either Coleman or Palmer is a revelation. If all these pieces fall into place (and everyone stays healthy), they...could....go... all... the...way!

And Floyd. Beane doing what he does best, just filling out the team. He doesn't do as well with splash signings or early draft picks, but let him cook with his own ingredients at his own pace, and Josh will take care of the rest, provided that McDermott continues to stay out of his way. That will get them to the AFCC. To get to the Super Bowl? McDermott will need to get out of Babich's way, too.

He checks most of the boxes except speed and production, so who knows. But why didn't the Rams bring him back? And is the high price Beane paid a reflection of the competition he had landing this guy?

It's just probability. Compare it to poker, for instance. If you're one of the strongest players in the tournament, you'll likely get to the final table most years, as the Bills have done (playoffs), and some years you'll get to the final two, heads-up match, as the Bills have done twice now (AFC championship). If you're as good your opponent, over time you should win half the games, but in the short term, you may win more or less than half. If you've played poker, you know the frustration of your opponent landing a straight with a 5-6 off-suit. The point is that probability will even out over time, will regress to the mean. If the Bills stay cool, they'll go to the Super Bowl soon, maybe repeatedly. The real danger is (besides being outcoached 😒) is going on tilt. I think that's what happened to the Kelly-era Bills after wide right. Kelly was a mess against the Redskins, and Thurman melted down against Dallas. They lost their mojo. The good news is that losing mojo or confidence isn't in Allen's DNA. He might try too hard, but he's not going to choke. McDermott will, as we've seen, but as long as he continues handing the game to his quarterback to win, they'll get there, probably (!) this year or next year.

How about he gets no sacks and little pressure for that price, and, worse, he plays on crucial third and long situations, meaning a better player does not? Vet minimum or say goodbye.

This is the key point, I think. McDermott's defenses have always played soft--don't give up the big play, wait for them to make a mistake. To give him credit, that does work in the regular season. But it fails spectacularly in the playoffs year after year after year, especially because he doesn't introduce new wrinkles, like KC offense did against the Bills in January. Yes, he'll show one coverage then switch to another, but that's pretty routine nowadays and good QBs can adjust. Worse, he doesn't seem to prepare his team for wrinkles from their opponents, like Mahomes running. (Hardly an innovation, but his team wasn't ready.) There are signs he might be starting to get it. Beane reportedly looking for corners who can play man as well as zone, for instance. But this defense needs a philosophical overhaul. If I had executive control over this team, I would instruct McDermott to hand over the defensive reins entirely to Babich. If McDermott remains in control, calling his soft coverages and weak rushes against the Burrows, Mahomes, and Jacksons of the league, the Bills will always lose in the end, no matter how much Allen scores.

Maybe also not choke them, either, eh?

Agree. Stop accommodating the geriatric Miller and let Groot rush from the right side, ideally opposite a quality player on the left side, and you'll see results. It really is time to cut Miller. He gave us half a season for $20 million, and is an expensive waste of a roster spot. Sign Josh Sweat or trade for Hendrickson, and draft a DE with one of the two second-round picks to join Javon Solomon. Together with a big, active DT and Oliver, that would be a real line.

Edmunds in Chicago, Gabe in Jacksonville, Diggs in Houston... the players we let go aren't showing too well. Maybe Beane does know what he's doing after all.

Sounds familiar.

And he did this playing either on his less favorable side or opposite Epenesa, one of the weaker starting ends in the league.

Not as young as Tremaine. Just saying.

I forgot about Trent Murphy. What an awful signing that was. Settle wasn't any better. But Beane hit on Floyd and Dequan. It's like throwing darts at a board.

I can see they're missing WRs, but one top OL? Who do you see as deficient? Seems the Bills need a DE, DT, CB, WR, and a safety to develop. OL isn't even on the list, unless you think they should cut Edwards? Every team's fan base wants their team to be just like that year's Super Bowl winner. But the Bills are better off sticking with what worked for them last year, at least on offense, particularly their balanced attack. Two major tweaks: Allen runs less and they get themselves a WR to stretch the field, say Hollywood Brown or Darius Slayton. Even if Kincaid, Samuels, and Coleman have another disappointing year, the offense will still be potent enough to go all the way--IF they don't have to carry McDermott's defense. What they need to do on defense is closer to the Eagles model: a pass rusher, two big tackles, a shut-down corner, and a top-shelf safety. That's a lot to ask, but it can be done. Sign Josh Sweat, draft the best available safety with your first-round pick, go DT with your two second-round picks, and trade your two fours to move up in the third for the best CB still available to develop behind Douglas, whom you sign to a one-year deal. Voila: a much better defense. Then somehow persuade McDermott to dump his bend-don't-break, play-not-to-lose defense, at least for the playoffs.

Yes to a second. That leaves a first and third for defensive line and the two fours and free agency for the depleted secondary, with enough cap room to be made for resigning practically everyone.

That's a point. Brady leaned on his running a lot last season, and that's just not sustainable.

I'm not saying the Bills should stay pat on offense, just that they don't need another monster on that side of the ball. A Hollywood Brown or Darius Slayton would fit the bill nicely. Yes, with Metcalf they may score even more than the 31 ppg they scored last year (second best in the league), but if signing him means no first-round pick and no big splash in free agency, they'd need to score 35 points a game to compensate for a sieve-like defense.

Even then you're saddled with a second huge contract on offense, limiting what you can do on defense. Allen is a monster on offense, lifting the entire platform all by himself like Atlas. He doesn't need another superstar to win games, as we saw last season. He just needs a defense that can do its part, or at least not go belly up every week. No, Beane needs to throw pretty much every last resource into defense to make up for his meh draft record and McDermott's meh coaching. With ten picks and plenty of cash, maybe he'll hit somewhere, like the proverbial blind man. Fun to dream about a Metcalf-type bombshell, but the result would be like one of those weight lifters with a huge upper body and stick legs.

I can't see those two names without thinking Beane could have picked both of them. Instead, he chose Boogie Basham and Rashad Wildgoose. Yeah, hindsight and all, but the man lacks imagination. He doesn't want to take an excellent center high because he has an aging Mitch Morse, and he can't take a flier in the sixth round on an excellent guard with injury questions. I've had faith in Beane for years, but the evidence is accumulating that the draft is his weak suit, at least the early rounds. He trades up when he should trade down, trades down when he should stay put, and stays put when he should trade up. You could field a pro-bowl team with the players he's passed up to take the likes of Tremaine Edmunds, Cody Ford, Boogie Basham, AJ Epenesa, Kaiir Elam, and Dalton Kincaid.

Thanks. I realize there's not much to choose from. Slayton seems the best of the bunch, sort of a deep-ball version of Shakir in his reliability and lack of star quality. In that sense, he'd fit right in. Brown might be the best of the bunch, but he's always injured. Plus, he's small, and McDermott evidently doesn't want a smurf. Brown... He did well in they playoffs, but there is good reason for the Commanders to let him go. Seems like you could get the same or better production out of a fourth-rounder. Do you agree with all that?

Who do you think would fit their plans? (Curious.)

Their valuations ticking up is one thing (led by a few headline anomalies like this one), their going way up is another. Very good running backs are too common and their shelf life is too short for the position to go the way of wide receivers. But I agree they'll be getting a significant bump.