MDH

I can say with 100% certainty that if they can’t beat the Broncos at home in a WC game with a rookie QB they aren’t winning it all.

Bills 27 Broncos 17

I keep hearing from talking heads how the Broncos are playing “really well.” In one breath they’ll tell you the Chiefs loss doesn’t concern you about the Chiefs and then say the above. How were the Broncos playing before that? Two straight losses and allowed 30+ points in both. Against Cinci the Denver offense had two chances in OT against one of the worst Ds in the league and went 3 and out both times. The 2 games before that? Both Denver wins but the D allowed 500 passing yards to Jamis and allowed 150 rushing yards to the Colts while Nix had 5 INTs combined in those two games. The Bills can certainly lose this game but somebody needs to do some fact checking before they tell me how well the Broncos have been playing lately.

They’re a middle of the pack (or slightly worse) rushing offense. EPA they’re ranked 15th, YPR is 4.1 which is bottom half of the league and even by volume - total yards rushing- they’re 16th. Defensively this isn’t a bad matchup for the Bills.

Having Rousseau and Miller healthy and rested going into the playoffs is key to their success. They have no one else who has been getting consistent push and lack of a pass rush has killed this team in the playoffs. I’d rest Miller and give him his bonus anyway.

I think it should come into the equation. If this year is virtually a dead heat why would they give Lamar his 3rd MVP before the Allen gets one, when Allen has - easily - been the better QB during his career? These are legacy awards and the legacy they’re leaving doesn’t tell the actual story of their careers.

I hate to admit it, but I’d take Drake Maye over Daniels. For an offense entirely devoid of talent dude is a baller. Doesn’t mean Daniels isn’t good, this QB class appears to be legit.

I mean, those were legit stats 20 years ago. Have fun with those. Granted, you managed to point out “other stats” so…congrats? Listing passer rating legit makes me 🤣🤣🤣🤣

They’re all just a data point. EPA is more of an offensive and defensive stat, not individual. The fact that the Bills’ O is great at EPA despite their weapons is a nod to QB and the OL.

Wait, what? “You have to get hyper specific” when, literally, the only stat he trails heavily in is the one you point out…

I mean, I totally hope he wins the SB and SB MVP. But given that there’s a small percentage chance that happens, l’ll take the MVP as a sort of consolation prize.

Coleman isn’t there yet and may never get there, but Worthy is a gadget guy at best and will never be worthy of a 1st. If given a do over I’d still prefer Leggett but between Coleman and Worthy I’ll take Coleman.

He’s a fantastic QB, one of the best, but its easier to put up those types of numbers when your D isn’t helping and you’re forced to throw it 40+ times - and hence, the gaudy counting stats (the best WR in the NFL and best WR combo don’t hurt either.) His EPA/play numbers aren’t better than Josh’s (its not even close) and the offense doesn’t score as much. Burrow isn’t ahead of Allen in QBR either. He’s just ahead in counting stats- in large part - because he has 150 more attempts. Thats 33% more than Josh. That said, he’s more deserving than Lamar. If it’s just about counting stats and not team success, Burrow has Lamar beaten. If it’s about a combination of the two and the value to your team’s success…it’s Allen. People are suffering from shiny object syndrome (just like last year) and I think it’ll likely cost Allen the award when he sits the final week. Though really if the voters are going to be consistent with how they awarded it last year, neither counting nor advanced metrics should matter, it’s only about the best record in football even if its largely because of the D - Then Mahomes is the MVP (he actually has better numbers than Lamar last year…) Yes, I kid with this last point.

In order to compare these numbers you need other WRs numbers. So I had a hypothesis - I could take almost any WRs numbers, look at their total yards for the season then look at a game log, take however many games it takes to get to around half their total yards and it would look similar to Amari’s. So the first guy I checked is who I think is the best WR in the game,- Ja’mar Chase. 2024 - 15 games 1510 rec yards. 4 BIG games (as you like to say) - 752. That’s 50% of his yards in 4 games. 2023 - 16 games 1216 rec yards. 4 BIG games - 606 yards. That’s 49% of his yards in 4 games. 2022 - 12 games 1046 yards - 4 BIG games - 510 yards. That’s 49% of his yards in 4 games. This was his most consistent season game to game. Interestingly, this is considered his “worst” year. 2021 - 17 games 1455 rec yards. 4 BIG games - 751. That’s 52% his yards in 4 games. Maybe, just maybe, WR is a high variance position game in, game out. Of course, we’d need to track a LOT more data in order to make this declaration with any certainty and I’m not willing to do so.

If your point is actually career why not let that season’s numbers stand as an outlier instead of manipulating them?

I only checked one year but thats enough to see how you’re manipulating numbers. Last year he had a -ridiculous - 265 yard game, so of course that throws the numbers WAY off and allows you to drop games of 98, 90 and 89 yards. Yes, his 6th highest yardage total last year was 98 yards but you stuck it with the “bad” games because his 265 yard game allowed you to try and get the percentage of “good” games where you wanted it. Maybe you have a legit point with the other years but with your bad faith numbers in the first year that I checked I’m not even bothering to go check your work elsewhere.

Bills have to decide on many extensions this year. Groot, Benford, Bernard, Shakir and Cook top the list. They likely can’t keep all of them. I love Cook but he’s the first off that list that I don’t extend. This is the “problem” with drafting well, particularly with most in a single draft class.

Dude has been fantastic this year. In order to finish you really need two guys getting pressure as it’s too easy for the QB to get away from a single guy on the edge. If he had any help you’d see his numbers skyrocket. Most games it’s Groot and nobody else doing anything in the backfield. They need to start manufacturing pressure since the DL as a whole isn’t getting it done with 4 games rushes.

I love the fans who proclaim the Bills as incapable of winning the AFC and if they lose in the playoffs they’ll point to the results as proof. Well - no *****- taking the field over any single team is the right call and you’ll be correct the majority of the time. That’s true for any single team (yes, even the Chiefs.) It doesn’t mean they didn’t have a chance to begin with, it means that their chances hover around 25-30% to get to the SB - which is roughly what most contending teams have.

He had some splash plays but down to down he got moved off the LoS on a pretty consistent basis. Not sure how much help he’s going to provide.

Wait, so "pre-season expectations" equates to Beane not doing a good job? That's one way of looking at it. The fact that this offseason the Bills are going to have to find a way of re-signing a bunch of their good, young, drafted, players tells a different story. Groot, Benford, Benard, Shakir, and Cook are all extension eligible and not all of them are going to be able to be paid - which is a good problem to have. That's a GM restocking the shelves and knowing when to move on from an aging roster because you realize that you have up and coming talent to fill the void. There was talent there, it's just that many people didn't realize it. I'll agree that his FA signings haven't been great, so that's on him, though Rapp and Hollins have been good additions to the roster - and that Rapp contract looks better by the week. It's interesting to me that you're going back to the offseason talking points to talk about team building issues, and not the ACTUAL issue with the team - the DL. They have one stand out player there - Rousseau (who, btw, is WAY better than most give him credit for, he's a difference maker.) Unfortunately, everyone else is a JAG or a good player that just isn't having a good year - Oliver. My only hope here is that Miller finds the fountain of youth for a 3-4 game playoff run. I'll put the DL weakness directly on Beane. It's been an issue for years despite resources being piled into it. I'd love to see McD "cover up for Beane" there, but unfortunately it's the weakness that gets us bounced in the playoffs pretty much every year. That said, overall Beane has done a good job with this roster. Not perfect, but it stands up overall to most of the other top rosters in the league with the exception of Philly and Detroit...and maybe Baltimore. Sure, it doesn't have as many household names, but that doesn't mean it's not loaded with good to very good players.

Have you only watched them on Thanksgiving? They tend to keep their starters in late into the 4th quarter and are still dropping back to pass with Goff on deep overs even when up by 20. I’ve had the exact opposite experience as you: I wonder why they’re trying to impress the selection committee instead of protecting their starters.

It couldn’t possible hit the net where it did while going through the goalposts unless the kicker has Sandy Koufax’s curveball.

Torrence looks bad this year

2nd down and short has been an issue for a couple of years. They always just want to pick up the first down and nothing more. I get it, not getting to 3rd down is extremely helpful, but in a league where big plays are in short supply that's a spot where you can get chunk yardage. And it doesn't have to be a bomb. I'd love to see some play action, even if it's just a crosser over the middle with the potential of making a guy miss and he's off to the races. They have to mix something - anything - in there on 2nd and short that isn't simply a run up the middle to pick up the first down.