Cash

Who are some of these quality GMs you have in mind?

Last week, "about a quarter" meant 1.5 drives for Allen and 2 full drives for the rest of the offensive starters. This week, I'm expecting either 3 or 4 full drives if conditions are good. (Probably only 4 if at least one of them is a 3-and-out.) As always in preseason, things could happen to get starters pulled earlier, but never later.

I don't disagree, but it doesn't particularly affect my point. I believe Shakir led the NFL or was very close to it in a couple efficiency stats. Even for a young/improving player, it's really rare to lead the league in anything 2 years in a row. Similar example from the NBA: As a rookie, Jason Tatum shot the highest % of all-time for corner threes. Did he improve as an overall player in the next couple years? Absolutely yes. Did he ever hit that same % for corner threes again? No, he did not. And betting on his corner three % to drop from year 1 to year 2 was pretty much a slam dunk. FWIW, I'm expecting Shakir's counting stats to go way up this year, with some dropoff in his efficiency stats. But I still expect his efficiency stats to look pretty good overall.

Agreed. It's very likely that both: 1.) Shakir will take a step forward as an NFL player this year, and 2.) Shakir's efficiency numbers drop off compared to last year This is regression to the mean - when someone's numbers are that ridiculously high (or low), usually they wind up moving more towards the middle the following year.

FWIW, I think you do. “Every dark cloud has a silver lining.” Meaning things are bad: I wanted a bright sunny day but instead I’m looking at a dark cloud. But even under this dark circumstance, not everything is bad - that silver lining is fairly pretty to look at, even if it’s not as good as a beautiful blue sky.

I get your point, but never is a strong word. You want to go for it on 4th and 10 from the 30 instead of kicking a 47-48 yard FG? The vast majority of models would say to kick in that situation.

I forget what game it was, but mine is probably the TD pass to Emmanuel Sanders where the ball hit Sanders exactly in the hands while running full stride in the endzone. I remember Sanders talking about it after the game, and he was blown away - basically saying he put his hands up and the ball went directly into them with no adjustment whatsoever.

I agree with this. Upthread @GunnerBill posted the drive lengths from the JAX game last year. I think about half the drives were 4 plays or less, and maybe 1 drive more than 6 plays. That’s not going to get it done UNLESS you’re scoring TDs on those 3-4 play drives. (Spoiler: we weren’t.) I don’t know if Brady will be good as our OC. I hope so, but the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. I also don’t know if the doomsdayers are right and McDermott is the problem. I hope not and I don’t think so, but I can’t prove them wrong at this time. I also don’t know if Dorsey will succeed in his future NFL career. (I think it depends on how much he learns from his first go-round.) But I DO know that, despite having a transcendent talent at QB, things were seriously off with the offense last year, and some (but not all) of that wrongness went away when the OC was fired. I think it’s wrong to pin 100% of the problems on Dorsey. But Dorsey was absolutely part of the problem, and if you disagree, I really don’t know what to tell you. Again, the first time the CB covering the flat peels off and intercepts a ball intended for Davis on a deep out, maybe that’s a good play by the D or a bad route by one of our players. The third or fourth time, it is a fundamental problem with the offense and the blame lies squarely with the OC.

Agree with that, and would add two complaints of mine: 1. In 2023, way too many receivers were bunched up at the end of their routes - more so than I’ve ever noticed before. Maybe that’s down to execution, but it is in the coach’s job description to get the players to execute. What he was telling them wasn’t working. How many picks did Allen throw on that out/flat route combo with Gabe and an underneath option? I think about 3 or 4, and the culprit was that the routes were too close together and the short defender had time to peel off and get between Gabe and the ball. And yet, we kept calling that route combo, and kept running it to the same depths. 2. Adaptability seemed to be lacking. We had a bunch of great offensive games under Dorsey, so he obviously was doing some things right, gameplan-wise. But it seemed like if Plan A didn’t work, or the opponent adjusted to handle Plan A, there was no Plan B. And that applied at a bigger scale as well: It really felt like opposing teams started figuring out our offense last year, and Dorsey had very few answers to the problems that presented.

2x Super Bowl champ, and made big plays in both of those playoff runs. For someone with the extreme self-confidence needed to make the NFL in the first place, that’s plenty of pedigree.

Interesting. Thanks for posting! I was pretty skeptical about this rule change, but now that it's a done deal I'm approaching it with an open mind. I definitely WANT kick returns to be a relevant part of the game, and if this works, I can live with the weirdness around it. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out. If this ultra-small sample is representative (unlikely), then we may be going back to the stats of my youth, where 20 yards/return was basically the minimum standard of "not-bad". There were KRs who averaged <20 yards/return, but they were all bad kick returners and their teams usually tried to upgrade the spot the next offseason. 20 was like minimum acceptable, and anything 25 or over was nutso.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm 2020 is still Allen's best statistical season by a good bit. Returning to those numbers would, IMO, count as a "better" Josh Allen. Year Comp. % TD/INT ratio TD% INT% Yards/Att Adj. Yards/Att 2020 69.2% 3.7 6.5% 1.7% 7.9 8.5 2021 63.3% 2.4 5.6% 2.3% 6.8 6.9 2022 63.3% 2.5 6.2% 2.5% 7.6 7.7 2023 66.5% 1.6 5.0% 3.1% 7.4 7.0 Regardless of where the counting stats wind up, if Allen is getting close to the 2020 numbers above, you're going to see the offense look REAL good.

That's clearly McD responding to a question along the lines of, "What are your thoughts on how Tyrell Shavers is looking in camp?" And it's effusive praise, which is great. And also, McD gives praise to every single player that he's asked a specific question about. I'm very pro-Shavers, but the only "unprompted" praise I've seen from the Bills thus far has been Beane listing Shavers first when talking about the WRs "already in the room". IIRC, that was around draft time, in response to a question about the Bills' needs at WR. No one is asking about Justin Shorter, because he hasn't looked good in camp. But if beat reporters were asking about Shorter every time McDermott or Brady gives a press conference, you'd still see a bunch of really positive quotes about him, because that's how the Bills coaching staff rolls. (And for the record, I think they have the right approach - give the corrective feedback in person, but the positive feedback is fair game for public consumption.)

Reporters are hyping him up for sure. I don't think the team is particularly hyping him up at this stage. Brady was asked a question about Shavers and responded with praise. Same as every individual player he's asked about.

Totally agree with that logic (pardon the pun), but I still don't see why it's one or the other. Who do you see the 6 WRs being if MVS is cut?

I can't claim I called Shavers making the roster, but back in April I ID'd him as most likely dark horse candidate of our non-rookie WR room:

Not sure if I'm off-base here, but why is Shavers vs MVS being talked about as an either/or? Coleman, Shakir, and Samuel are looking like locks for the top 3, and Mack Hollins is looking like a roster lock and probably active every week he's healthy. That leaves probably 2 roster spots for WRs - there's a very slim chance they keep 7, and I'd be really suprised if they only kept 5. MVS is probably getting one of those spots as a veteran and proven deep-playoff contributor, unless there are 2 guys who impress so much that the Bills have to cut MVS. Maybe Shavers is one of the two, but if so, who's the other one?

Steve Young, obviously

First two posts nailed it for me: Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk - in that order.

You do you, but that interpretation trivializes the question for me. TO is arguably a top 5-10 WR of all time. Him in his SF prime is a no-brainer.

Great thread! Honest question: how good do you think other teams’ #4 outside CB is? I can’t name a single one (except ours), so I have no idea myself. My feeling is that Jamarcus Ingram is probably on par or better than others around the league. That’s not to say I’d be happy with him starting a playoff game, but I doubt there’s a #4 outside corner in the league that could make their fans happy starting a playoff game. Full disclosure: I’m still a full-on Elam believer and think that most of his problems last year were from trying to play through injury. I’d be totally fine with a healthy Elam starting a playoff game. For me, I’ll say the O-line. More of a ? than a concern at this point. Plan A is to have a guy play C for the first time in a long time, and promote last year’s jumbo TE to a starter. It might work fine, but it also has 2 potential points of failure. I’m curious what Plans B and C would look like. Also curious how committed they are to Plan A. Sometimes it’s on the level of, “This is what we’re doing unless we simply can’t,” but sometimes it’s more like, “This is where we’re starting but it’s an open competition.” If the latter, I could see Alec Anderson getting the C job if either Edwards or McGovern struggle in the new role. Side note: Who else remembers the drought year where we signed a guy to play either C or LT, then moved him to the other position? White guy, pretty nondescript name I think. I don’t think he was particularly good at either position.

1. IMO “in his prime” can only mean “his prime as a Bill”. The TO we watched was good, but not at HOF level. To a lesser extent, same thing applies to Lofton. 2. I actually think Stevie would be a bad fit for Josh. He and Fitz worked great because it was a timing based offense and Fitz was throwing to a spot. Stevie would put on whatever moves he needed, but ultimately get to that spot at the right time. But Josh prefers to hold on to the ball and try to look for a big play. I’m just not seeing it. 3. Lofton is very intriguing. Best deep out route runner in the NFL when he was with us. Allen’s arm strength makes him one of the best deep out throwers in the league. 4. Andre Reed is at his best in the slot, which isn’t where we need help the most right now. But he was absolutely incredible, and he’d IMO be quite a bit more destructive now with the increased focus on player safety. In his day, slot receiver was a much more high-risk job than it is today. 5. Moulds was the first guy who popped in my head. Big, physical, POWERFUL, and fast enough. Flutie made a living off of hucking it up to Moulds almost every time Moulds was single covered. And it usually worked out. I think Keon Coleman’s best highlight reel reps remind me of Moulds somewhat. 6. Lee Evans is the other guy in my fan lifetime who needs mentioning. I think he would thrive with Allen, but at the end of the day I think I’d prefer the contested catch guy who’s fast enough (Moulds) over the true burner in Evans. Final thought: we’ve talked about playoff performance mattering, and many have pointed out Diggs’ tepid playoff numbers. Look up Moulds’ performance in the Dolphins playoff game in the 1998 season. From memory, I think it was about 240 yards and a couple TDs, and nearly a game-winning catch. (IIRC he was stopped on about the 5, leading to another brutal playoff loss.)

Not quite the same, but I'm also reminded of some clip from Sammy Watkins' first training camp that a bunch of posters were creaming their jeans over. In the clip, Watkins put on a sick move to be sure, but it was against some UDFA CB who was like 14th on the depth chart. I.e., not an NFL player.

I don’t know why James Cameron spends all that money on CGI for the Avatar movies when he could just paint Trevor Lawrence blue.