Cash
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Posts posted by Cash
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14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I seem to recall some comments from the last report card that the team's nutritionist or dietician was shared with the Buffalo Sabres so the players felt they didn't have enough time to craft individual programs for them.
I'm surprised by the "team travel" thing though, because I remember McDermott saying that the Pegulas had ensured they were comfortable when they traveled, and he appreciated that.
Hopefully someone will look into the basis for these ratings and fix them.
Right, and this is the team where players have played in 4 Superbowls the last 5 years and won 3 of them.
Boggles the mind - like, the other 31 owners want to be that guy
Per Alaina Getzenberg, one of the complaints from the survey is that staff gets priority in airplane seating, leaving the biggest dudes (players) in coach-size seats. (Which seems like a very legit beef to me.) So I guess McDermott is indeed very comfortable, with his 5'9" self relaxing luxuriously in first class. 😆-
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5 hours ago, SCBills said:
Yea, it's not a slam dunk either way. For me, I think this team just needs to get younger in certain spots. I'm fine paying 10M'ish for a good 30 year old pass rusher or a bit more for a younger wide receiver on a 1-2 year deal. I'm not really that interested in paying 10M to a 30 year old cornerback, and I'm definitely not interested in making a multi-year commitment to a 30 year old cornerback.
But Douglas is a good player and it's a shame that he was probably at 50% in the KC game. Floyd disappeared down the stretch, so for me, he's a thank you for your service but let's see what else we can do on the DL.
Totally see what you're saying and partially agree. But 30 isn't 35, and Douglas was such a spark to the defense that I'd prefer to have him back if possible. Under McDermott, even when our defense is playing really well, not everyone on it has that "big play" mentality. By which I mean, actively looking to make a play rather than trying to not give up a big play. (As an aside, Jairus Byrd had some great comments on that back in the day, with the gist being that when the ball's in the air, he views it as his ball, not the receiver's ball.) You don't need everyone on the defense to have that mentality, but I think you need a few leaders to have it for sure, and Douglas showed it big-time last year.
I seem to be in a very small minority, but I also wonder if Benford might move to S this offseason. I know he's been good at CB, and I'm fine with him staying at CB. But it seems to my amateur eyes that his strengths at CB would also be major assets at S. His size is great for what the Bills usually have at S, too. I just wonder if he's a good CB who could be an elite S. Both Hyde and Poyer were originally drafted at CB...
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7 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I think you're correct in terms of how this organization has functioned.
However, we're entering a new era. One where they won't have the luxury of 6-12M vets all over the roster.
Does the staff have more faith in a young player like Kaiir Elam being able to hold down CB opposite Christian Benford in Year 3, with 10M in saving to be used elsewhere or do they have more faith in going young on the DL or at WR.
Would you rather have Rasul Douglas or Hollywood Brown? Rasul Douglas or another Pass Rusher?
1.) Probably Rasul Douglas. I don't think Hollywood Brown is that good, and he's a risk to be a malcontent if he's not playing enough.
2.) That's a tough one. Do I know if the pass rusher will be any good? Floyd was an awesome signing this year, but even then our pass rush was invisible in the playoffs. If the choice is between Rasual Douglas and "good pass rush in the playoffs", I want the latter. But I honestly don't think that option is realistically on the table, so I think I'd take my chances on having a good and deep back 7? To some extent I think we should start defending Mahomes in the playoffs by spying him with 3 guys and rushing zero. I'm just demoralized at this point.
1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:He sort of half suggested they want AJE back because he talked about "it only takes one team to be willing to overpay a guy and you lose 'em" and the only guy I could see that happening with is Epenesa. He also hinted another dust settles June move like Leonard Floyd could be in the offing to fill that unit out.
Would make sense. Similar to Floyd, if there's a proven vet out there, we offer an opportunity to play and contend for a title. As long as the money is competitive, there's real appeal there. And in general, I wouldn't be shocked to see us sign a guy or two to those 1-year "prove it" deals. Agents know that big playoff moments get guys paid, and we're very consistent about being involved in big playoff moments. (And just big moments in general - the last few years, we've been on the losing side of the game of the year pretty consistently.)
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2 minutes ago, Logic said:
I'd be quite surprised if they cut Rasul Douglas, particularly after the cap number wound up being higher than Beane and co. expected.
If he was a free agent and the Bills were just choosing not to re-sign him, then I'd understand. But given that he's under contract for 2024 for an extremely reasonable $9.9million, and given that the Bills gave up a pretty good draft pick for him, and given that he was their best defender in 2023...it would seem absolutely crazy to me to just cut him outright.
I fully believe that they may want Elam to see the field more, but this regime has always been about "the best players play" and "everyone earns their spot", and it's hard to argue that anyone in our secondary has EARNED playing time over Rasul Douglas.
The ONLY way I could see them moving on from Douglas is if they've committed to drastically change the way they play their corners, and to move to more of a man-based scheme. But I doubt that's the case, because then they'd be relying on a twice-seriously-injured Tre White and a still-unproven Kaiir Elam, as Benford is also not a fit in a man scheme.
I say Douglas is far more likely to be extended long term than to be cut, and I will be seriously surprised if he IS cut.It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, that's for sure. The only prediction I'm comfortable making is that we won't get any meaningful contributions from Tre this year - or at least for most of the year. Based on how tentative he played coming back from his ACL tear, and knowing an Achilles tear has an even longer recovery period. I don't know if his future lies at CB or S, or if he'll ever get back to a "Tre White" level of play. But I'd be suprised if he's a plus player in September or October (probably even November) this year. I'm hoping the Bills consider that in their contract negotiations with Tre. I love the guy, and ideally would like to see him back, but it feels like this is a rehab year, not a Pro Bowl year. You can't pay a guy what he's making to rehab.
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14 minutes ago, finn said:
Yes, he was terrific. But he did have some odd moments of standing around. At least twice I wondered, "Who in the hell is 31?" Also, Elam's upside is pretty high. He's got length, size, speed, athleticism, and (we're told) a solid work ethic. You would think his weaknesses--tackling and zone awareness--could be learned. But busts do happen. Anyone old enough to remember James Williams, the Bills' fast, athletic 1990 first-round pick at cornerback?
Anyway, yeah, a tough call. If Beane extends Douglas, he'll have a solid corner and good depth for at least two or three years, albeit an older one (Douglas will be 30 in August). But his salary cap problems deepen. If he doesn't extend him, he saves a nice chunk of change but is gambling that either Elam or White can hold up that side.
Given that it's a lean year and we have no DL depth, I would understand if Beane rolled the dice.
Oh yeah. AKA J.D. Williams. He's the guy who changed his number in the hopes that officials would forget who he was, because he thought he was typecast as a guy who commits a lot of penalties. (It didn't work.) He either went from 29 to 31 or vice versa, I think.
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6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I agree with much of what you say, they only thing I'm skeptical about is the "4th and 25" as an option. With the way officiating has been I would hate to see some ticky tack PI, some no call on an obvious PI or one of those ridiculous "toss it short and force the DPI" plays having a factor.
In theory it works. Picking up 4th and 25 is likely the same odds of recovering an inside kick. Just too many ways the "human element" comes into play for my own comfort.
My problem with that idea (besides the fact that special teams are fun and cool) is that it just gives even more priority to having a top-tier passing offense. The run game is already heavily devalued as it is; I don't think we need more rule changes to devalue it further.
Bottom line for me: If you want all passing all the time, and super high scores, we already have the Arena League for that. I don't mind watching AFL once in a while, but it's like an overly sweet dessert. A couple bites are nice, but I'm not having a bowl of Skittles for dinner.
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1 hour ago, MRW said:
This is what I favor, except I'd just eliminate OT in the regular season. Don't want the game to end in a tie? Go for 2 on a late/game-ending TD. But I think I'm in a very tiny minority that would be ok with that.
There are dozens of us!(Also, I favor the full quarter approach for playoff OT, but think it should be sudden death if tied after the quarter.)
2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:But there is the issue...they are not equal advantages. That is the point people are making on college vs pros.
The OT rule is improved now, but college system is still the single only true equal opportunity structure.
Counterpoint; College overtime SUUUUUUCKS. No special teams, virtually no value in field position, takes way too long, and feels like something out of the XFL. Count me out.
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Good for him! No hard feelings.
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How do you know if you’re trading up for Julio Jones or Sammy Watkins?
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On 2/1/2024 at 11:35 AM, Kirby Jackson said:
Lol, I do not believe in any of this. The game has changed. If Josh doesn’t run, he isn’t nearly as effective. We should have NEVER talked about limiting his carries. Let Josh be Josh. If the Bills are going to reach their goals, in this era, it’ll be because Josh Allen took them there. He’s the franchise and that’s more true now than at any point since he got here. Go play his game and let the chips fall where they may.
I think we should limit the designed runs in the regular season. (And we have, for early season at least.) I completely trust Allen’s judgment when it comes to scrambling, and don’t want the coaches messing him up by harping on it too much.-
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18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I'd say they were about 10 executable plays away from winning that game. It was do-able and it was the route to victory. But 2-3 is seriously downplaying it. But OK, if 1 was the TD to Shakir.......the other 2 were what? A sack that they have never had in 3 playoff games against Mahomes? An interception when they hadn't turned the ball over offensively and his receivers were largely running wide open all day?
I'll bite.
- 2nd and 9, hit Diggs on the short crosser. Sets up 1st and 10 from the 16, KC calls timeout #2 with about 1:51 remaining
- 1st and 10, run for 3 yards. KC calls timeout #3 with about 1:44 remaining
- 2nd and 7 from the 13, run for 4 yards. Clock runs down to about 1 minute
- 3rd and 3 from the 9, run for 4 yards. Clock runs down to about 25 seconds
- TD on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down. Bills have 2 timeouts left so running is still viable. Maximum time left is about 20 seconds.
There you have it - 5 plays, all on the final drive, and we're up 4 and need to prevent a TD in the last 5-20 seconds. The runs could also be checkdowns instead.
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Thanks for posting! Some of these reporters need to be willing to be boring. No one is "A PROBLEM" at a Senior Bowl practice. And if a guy's 1-day practice performance is "making me feel things", it's time for some serious self-reflection.
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Excellent post. And a great point about sample size.
I’ve seen this a couple times, but not many: what the models should be spitting out is the “break even” probability for going for it. (And with all of the assumptions, approximations, and missing variables, they should probably be rounding to the nearest 10%.) If I’m a coach, that’s what I want to know. Do I need an 80-90% chance of success to be worth going for it, or is it closer to 50/50? And comparatively, how much do I trust my offense/playcall/QB against their defense right now?
And on another note, the advantage of being up 3 scores vs 2 is significant. If the model (or the coach making decisions based on the model) didn’t take that into account, that’s a major problem.
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Thinking of you @whorlnut. Best wishes.
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8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
Good stuff. I agree.
Especially as to #4. If I have Kittle, Samuel, and McCaffrey, I'm designing my offense to get the ball to those guys in open space. Every player is different. Diggs is shifty, but he really isn't a productive open-field runner. Nor was Davis. Nor Knox. So, if those are my broken field runners, I'm not worried about getting them the ball so they can run. It just isn't a priority in my offense.
Which means that #5 is correct, too. It's important when it's important, but it isn't the be-all and end-all.
I've said this before, but I'll say it again. There's a reason some stats are more important than others. Completion percentage, for example, is more important than RAC or YAC. How do I know? Because completion percentage is more predictive of a good passing offense than RAC or YAC. RAC and YAC may be valuable to coaches trying to evaluate players, to evaluate offensive strategy, etc., but it isn't predictive of overall offensive excellence. It's like the debate that went on for a few years about Taylor not throwing over the middle enough. It was interesting data, but if he'd suddenly started completing two more passes a game over the middle, he wasn't going to suddenly become a star quarterback. All that data showed was that there was an area of the field that he was, relatively speaking, neglecting. Or like people saying the Bills need a better #2 receiver. Unless you have two first-round picks at wide receiver, you just aren't going to get 1000 yards out of you number 2, and two first-round picks is not sustainable. So talking about that as though that's the fix to the offense, or talking about YAC, or talking about throwing more over the middle is focusing on the wrong stuff.
The Bills have a really good offense (it actually had a bit of an off-year this season). The objective is to improve it, but it really needs only marginal improvement. Those improvements could come from many different sources. Fixating on these narrow data points isn't what will make the team better.
Where I think it matters is for big games against elite teams with top-end coaches (like the Chiefs or Bengals). Those teams have a tendency of being able to force teams into doing what they’re worst at. That could mean giving up completions underneath and daring our guys into making one of their guys miss. If we don’t have anyone who can break or evade a tackle, or don’t have a QB who can place the ball accurately enough, that could be a problem. Maybe there’s other ways to beat that kind of defense; I don’t know. -
45 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
He still finished 7th in receptions, 13th in yards
Yeah, his first half (or thereabouts) was massive numbers. The hope would be that he tailed off due to some injury he was hiding, but I’m not sure I buy it. If he’s playing hurt, why throw him a ton of screens? And what injury causes you to get the drops for the first time in your career?
If it wasn’t physical health, I’m wondering if it was mental health, or something else. There has to be a reason his performance dropped off so dramatically - even adjusting for changes in usage under Brady. It’s probably a combination of factors, but I think there’s one main reason that Diggs knows, but we don’t.
I’d love to know that reason. And if it’s something that’s likely to carry forward into next year. At Diggs’ age, I’m going to assume that it will carry forward unless I have reason to believe otherwise. And I think that’s where the “not a #1 WR” sentiment is coming from. They’re assuming that 2024 Diggs will be the same guy we saw down the stretch this year. And that guy was not what people think of as “a #1 receiver”.
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
The point about small ball is a good one. Bills intentionally developed the short passing game this season, and it naturally leads to more YAC.
And I've been meaning to come back to my earlier post. I don't pay much attention to YAC, and all I did was go grab the stat and post it. I looked again later, and although the Allen was, in fact, 6th in YAC, he was 19th in YAC per completion, which is probably the more relevant stat. So, even though is YAC improve considerably, given the number of passes he completed, he still wasn't generating a lot fo YAC.
Having said that, I don't care about YAC. Coaches do, in some sense, but I think it's one of those stats that is illuminating about some aspects of a guy's game, what matters is completions and yards and touchdowns. If Allen improves his YAC per completion to top 10, it's still going to be only maybe 300 more yards per season. That's nice, of course, but that's not what will make the difference between what we got this season and what we all want. 300 yards is 300 yards, and if they get 300 more yards more from the receivers and not one more yard of YAC, it's the same 300 yards. Or 300 yards from special teams. Or 300 yards in INT returns.
YAC's a detail.
My thoughts:
- I prefer RAC (run after catch) to YAC (yards after catch). No beef with anyone who disagrees; just personal preference.
- I'm too lazy to look it up, but I would expect that our RAC numbers look very different under Dorsey vs under Brady. My guess is we were somewhere around 28th in RAC/completion under Dorsey, and probably close to 10th under Brady. Shakir especially starting getting some great RAC once Brady took over.
- Like Shaw says, what matters is yards & TDs. A throw into the endzone, by definition, can't get any RAC. But no coach, player, or fan would ever think it's bad to complete a pass in the endzone if you're trying to score.
- I think a lot of RAC is scheme dependent (see #2). Both in terms of what plays are called and how they're designed. An offense with a lot of screens, crossers, and swing passes is going to get more RAC than one that mostly throws hitches and deep outs. Obviously there's a player component as well - ball placement by the QB makes a difference, and skill players who are fast and/or can make a guy miss, etc.
- So what? So RAC is only important when it's important. By which I mean overall numbers don't tell you much of a story. What the coaching staff should be (and probably is) doing is looking at plays where we could or should have gotten signficant RAC, and determining why we got it or why we didn't.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't agree that our oline got outplayed. Even second half. I think both offensive lines neutralised both defensive lines. I don't buy that the whole team underperformed on Sunday and yet was 1 or max 2 plays from beating the Chiefs. Unless of course you believe on paper we are just a lot better than them and I don't think that. I think they are two very evenly matched teams. The last 4 matchups have gone right to the wire. We are 2-2 in those games. Sadly they won the 2 most important ones. We had chances in both but couldn't make a play. They had chances in both the regular season games too and couldn't make the play they needed.
Agree to disagree on the O-line, but I'll concede that they held up much better than the D-line. And I think I came across more strongly than I intended to. I wholeheartedly agree that the teams are evenly matched. Regarding the bolded: I don't purport to know anything definitively, but it feels like it's not a coincidence that they've won all 3 of the playoff matchups, including both of the close ones. (I also don't think it's a fait accompli by any stretch - I 100% believe we would've won the 13 Seconds game in OT if we'd won the coin flip, and we could've stolen the win last week with a perfect final drive.) Andy Reid seems to save his best stuff for the playoffs, and Mahomes has shown that he's basically never going to make a mistake against us in the playoffs. There's a mental toughness there that our team sometimes has, but sometimes doesn't.
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2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
Last Bills game I attended was Thad vs the Bengals. Great game but sad ending.
Not the most recent one, but I did see Thad duel Drew Brees in the Superdome back in 2017. SPOILER: Brees won the duel.
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1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I'll say this for any and all "trade Diggs" conjecture:
No. Not in 2024. No way, no how. Especially the "no how" part. As in, the Bills would incur a $4 million cap LOSS on top of what they would have to pay the new guy in a year where they desperately need cap space. There's a reason that player for player trades don't happen often, and it's more commonly player for picks.
If the Bills hit every lever to free up space, effectively say good bye to all departing free agents (bye Floyd, Epenesa, Shaq, Dodson, Dane Jackson, DaQuan, Phillips so most of our defense) and need to hit on nearly every draft pick as an immediate starter the Bills could maybe trade Diggs for picks. What worth all that, multiple first rounders? We ain't getting that for Diggs.
Diggs is a near certain lock to be on the roster in 2024. And, let's face it, likely 2025, because the Bills are so cap strapped I don't see how we field a roster anywhere as close to last year without restructuring or extending him.
I think you hit the nail on the head - it's the HOW part. In his year-end press conference, Beane said something about having to be very careful about every dollar they spend. I doubt he thinks they can afford a $4mil cap hit just to get rid of Diggs.
Now, if this was the NBA's cap? I'd be calling Tampa about doing a sign & trade of Diggs for Mike Evans. And in a cap-free world, I'd be calling Jerry Jones and selling him on adding another star, while also reuniting the Diggs brothers. All for just the low, low price of this year's first round pick. (In the cap-free scenario, I'm also doing whatever I can to sign Evans outright.)
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
1 - personnel issue not a coaching issue. We cannot separate vertically at all. We are forced to play small ball. Dorsey got fired because he was still trying to run an explosive offense with players that couldn't do it. We have to get more explosive in the offseason.
2 - yep it has. Being down to our third string linebackers did not help. KC exploited that masterfully.
3 - I disagree.
Agreed on 1 & 2.
On point 3, I hope you're right. My worry though, is that the team is consistently close to KC, but also consistently just enough worse to lose these big games. I still haven't read Tyler Dunne's full hit piece* on McDermott, but the "tightness" talked about in the free section does seem to add up with the results on the field. My hope is that McDermott can get better as a coach, which includes setting the tone in a better way than he has been.
McDermott has shown the ability to learn from his mistakes before, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for another year. But at some point, we need to see a playoff game against another elite team where our guys look more energized than their guys. Take the last game for example: Our stars on the D-line went up against their stars on the O-line, and theirs won handily. It wasn't a back and forth, where we won some and they won some. It was our guys getting smoked every down, all game. KC had a massive advantage in yards per play, and it showed. Position-by-position, they looked like the better team, and if we won it would've felt like we stole the game to some extent. Some of that is our injuries in the back 7 on D, and missing Gabe. But we were healthy on both lines, and both lines got way outplayed in the 2nd half. When the whole team (except your superhuman QB) is underperforming, you have to start pointing fingers at the coaching staff.
*McD haters: Yes, it's a hit piece. That doesn't mean I doubt his sources, or think that anything in it is factually incorrect or otherwise unfair to McD. I'm going to read the full thing with an open mind. But the lede is written in the style of an editorial, and specifically calls for McD to be fired. That's a hit piece by any reasonable definition of hit piece.
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Michael Lombardi is a dumb guy who learned enough pithy catchphrases to sound wise. Don’t waste your time.
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15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
He helped the Dolphins defense improve from 24th overall, to 22nd overall
I will grant that Fangio dealt with significant injuries to major players on defense towards the end of the season. But for contrast, the Bills dealt with significant injuries at all levels of defense starting Game 4, and the defense dropped from #2 to #4
I remember at the start of this season, I saw a few people saying that Fangio’s success usually shows up in year two, because there are usually growing pains for players as they learn the system.If true, it makes this move seem pretty dumb! But to be fair, the article I read when Fangio was fired seemed to think he really wanted the Philly job and basically asked for his release. If that’s true, tough luck for Miami. I wouldn’t force someone to coach for me if his heart wasn’t in it either, because I don’t think that could possibly lead to good results.
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13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Need a WR in the first two rounds. Ideally jn round one. My preferred plan is:
Rd 1 - most explosive WR available
Rd 2 - best DL (edge or tackle) available
Rd 3 - safety
Rs 4 - either OT or C with development upside
Rd 5 (two picks) - another WR (gadgety fast guy) and a DB
Rd 6 (three picks) - depth on both lines and a developmental Quarterback
Rd 7 - kicker
Sign me up for this, except maybe for the kicker.
EDIT: And I'd make one of the 6th rounders a linebacker.
Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I largely agree on this. Like I’ve said elsewhere on this board, I’m basically ready to punt on the idea of pressuring Mahomes in the playoffs. It’s been about 3 straight years of throwing huge resources at the pass rush with nothing to show for it in the playoffs. If those moves had panned out, they’d have been great, and maybe it just comes down to Von Miller getting hurt. But they didn’t pan out, and I think it’s fair to say we try a different tack at this point.
Hap is right that we’ve had a mid season swoon for a while now, and since Daboll left we’ve had big consistency problems on offense. I think it’s fair to ask for a better overall coaching ouevre next year, especially on offense. And that could help a lot, regardless of talent. But I don’t think we’re gonna get Andy Reid level coaching anytime soon. And Spags is back for at least one more year. If we face them in the playoffs again, he’s gonna be willing to play press man and dare our guys to win those 1 on 1s. Up till recently, Diggs was that guy, and would feast when any DC tried that. Diggs wasn’t that guy down the stretch. The best case (plausible) scenario is that he was playing hurt. If that’s true, then we really need a second guy in case Diggs gets hurt again. The other plausible scenario is that Diggs is starting to show signs of slowing down. And if that’s true, we ESPECIALLY need another guy.
Having said all that, I just want to point out that Leonard Floyd and Deonte Harty each signed for about $9 million, right? Some of the WR names I’ve seen thrown around could very easily be worse than Harty, and Floyd absolutely helped us win games. So I’m a little more agnostic on where those few veteran FA dollars should go. I just want them to be well spent in hindsight.
My bottom line: I still think we need to commit significant resources to the offensive skill players, most notably at WR. Unless someone crazy falls all the way to us, our first draft pick should be a WR. And I’d have no problem if they went WR again in round 2 or 3.
Hypothetical question: What if we drafted a repeat of 2013? Basically meaning we draft this year’s versions of Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin? I’m not sure if I’d be happy or disappointed.