Cash

Fully agree.

If Manning's available at 9, we should trade down. Might be able to pick up a 2nd AND a 4th.

Obviously Robinson is going to win, but I'm glad that at least my boy Mike Evans is running second.

I'm not sure I really get your point. The 14-year playoff drought is easy to point to because it really jumps out. But it's just a symptom, and the cause is, "the Bills are a dysfunctional and poorly-run franchise." Even poorly-run franchises sneak into the playoffs once in a while, and the Patriots being so consistently good is one of the reasons that the Bills haven't. But do you think that the Bills are well-run, and that it's only bad luck that's kept them from success? I doubt it, because you generally seem pretty lucid, but again, I'm not really sure what you're arguing. That if we were in a different division but all else was the same, we would've won the division with a 9-7 or 8-8 record once or twice in the past 14 years? And maybe that that playoff experience would've made Jauron or Mularkey or Gailey a better coach, or caused whichever GM to make more/better signings or picks to get us to the next level? (I don't buy that, if that is what you're saying.) I mean, the Washington Proud Traditions made the playoffs in 2012 and I don't think anyone thinks they're a well-run franchise -- they just made one really good move in trading a king's ransom for a transcendent talent at the game's most important position. Of course, they almost immediately started torpedoing that transcendent talent with a series of terrible decisions, which is about par for the course for them. I'll always love the Bills, and I love the community of Bills fans even more, but when the team stinks and it's the team's own fault, I will criticize them. I'm not going to pretend that all is well with the team when they keep putting out this garbage product year after year. I will continue to obsessively watch said garbage product *and* get my hopes up that things are turning around every year, but I can only ignore reality for so long.

Even changing every loss to the Pats to a win during that stretch (which almost always means adding 2 wins) still doesn't leave us with an impressive set of records. And that's unrealistic, because even switching the Pats out with the Browns/Jaguars/Raiders would still yield a few wins over the Bills in 28 matchups. Yes, the Patriots have been uncommonly good during our stretch of futility. And they've owned us during that stretch, which hasn't helped matters at all. But the Bills have been objectively bad against the whole league, not just the Patriots or the AFC East as a whole.

Totally. The other thing is that people spout "BPA" as though there's a clear Best among the players available at a given pick. Who's better, Josh Gordon or Navarro Bowman? Hard to say. The reality is that scouts do their best to grade draft prospects, but a lot of the grades are pretty bunched up. It's not like the top guy on the board has a grade of 100, then the next guy has a 90, then an 80, etc. It's more like there are three 96's, then five 95's, then four 94's, then two 93's, then eight 91's. Who can say that their scouts' grades are accurate enough that a 96 is really "better" than a 95? Now, once in a while a team might find itself in a position where they have one guy left on their board who's WAY ahead of anyone else, and that's when they might do a true BPA pick, even if the guy plays a position they don't need. But generally speaking, "BPA" is just nonsense draftspeak. Would anyone ever admit that they took a guy who wasn't the highest on their board?

Ebron kind of scares me at #9. If they do wind up going that route, I'll watch a bunch of highlights and try to convince myself he's the next Jimmy Graham, but right now, I don't like it. I think the Vernon Davis comp is pretty legit (he's definitely not the athlete VD is, but might be more skilled to make up for it), and if you guaranteed me he would have Vernon Davis' career, I still think I might prefer Evans. Don't get me wrong, Davis is a good player, and he's had some good seasons, but he's also been fairly inconsistent, and he's not a guy I fear if I'm going up against his team. If the 49ers had had a decent WR or two during his time with the team, I don't think his numbers would be quite as good, either. I dunno, I just don't see Ebron as a gamebreaker type TE, and I don't think he'll be a strong blocker, and at that point, I'd rather roll the dice at #9. I think I'd prefer one of the top OTs over Ebron, frankly. The other thing that scares me is his drop rate. I still have flashbacks of Lonnie Johnson and Robert Royal dropping away catch after catch. I totally agree with the sentiment of going after a big-time TE, especially since most of our WRs are young and won't really get better without plenty of playing time. But I don't think Ebron is the guy to justify that high of a pick. I don't think he'll ever be All-Pro or earn his way into the Pro Bowl*. Plus, I tend to agree with another poster's sentiment that Marrone probably wants more of an in-line TE who can help the run game than a guy like Ebron or Amaro who was in the slot 80% of the time. *I say "earn his way into" because with the Pro Bowl being an even bigger joke now than ever, and with both Super Bowl teams ineligible from the get-go, it's not tough to wind up with a 3rd or 4th alternate making it onto the final squad. I could see Ebron squeaking in that way, but I'm looking for more than that with a top 10 pick in what appears to be an excellent draft.

+1. Most posters in this thread are taking Graham's articles to mean that the main source of confrontation is the Byrd negotiations, but the only thing specifically mentioned in the first one was the inability to replace the training staff, and the second one spent as much time focusing on Berchtold as Littman/Overdorf combined. And I don't think anyone here thinks that Berchtold has a hand in the Byrd negotiations? Now, it's plausible that Overdorf is stymieing said Byrd negotiations, and that's a main cause of the leaks. But it could also be a coincidence. Obviously both Whaley & Marrone want Byrd back, but both of them (especially Whaley) have to have a price point where they balk. Maybe the "Eugene Parker is the devil" contingent is right and Byrd's demands are way over the top. Or maybe Joe Buscaglia's speculation is right that Byrd desperately wants to play for a winner, and that results in Byrd asking for the moon from the Bills, then signing for below-market value with a contender when the Bills balk. Either way, it wouldn't tell us much about anything that happened (or didn't) at 1 Bills Drive. Now, if they sign Byrd to a massive new contract, I think that would be a strong sign that Overdorf was put in his place. Say it with me: WE'RE NOT THE WORST! WE'RE NOT THE WORST! WE'RE NOT THE WORST! New rallying cry for 2014?

Interesting analogy. And definitely a good point about 1,000 as a "magic number". Of course, there isn't anything magical about that number of attempts, it's just a nice round number that humans like to work with, and it happens to fall at a fairly convenient spot in assessing a QB's progress. The results would probably be very similar using 931 or 1,234 attempts. (If they weren't, then that's a sign that maybe this is just a random occurrence that showed up due to the small sample involved.) There's probably a way to re-design this study using some kind of range or continuum of pass attempts, but none of us are getting paid for this, nor do we have any influence over any team's actual decision-making, so I don't really see a huge gain from complicating things. Anyway, assuming we accept that there's really something here, what's the takeaway? I don't really agree with the Gladwell/10,000 hours analogy. Yes, more reps/attempts/practice time/etc. will help a young player get better, but not everyone will get good enough to succeed in the NFL, even if he takes every snap for 5 straight years. What Ramius is really talking about is that before a player gets (roughly) to 1,000 attempts, it's tough to really predict if his current play is indicative of his future play. Once he gets there, you have a pretty good idea of what you're going to get. Combining that with Sisyphean Bills' point, I'd say that if you have a young QB with some promise -- he has the physical tools, seems to be liked/respected as a leader by teammates or seems like he will be once he starts winning, shows some flashes of brilliance or at least stretches of competence, and isn't abysmal -- it might actually be worth your while to commit to him long enough to get him to that 1,000 attempt area. Conversely, don't sign him to a big extension before he gets there, even if he's played well. And I think EJ Manuel is a great case study for the former, because he looks like he has all the tools, but certainly had his share of flaws as a rookie. I doubt he'll get particularly close to 1,000 attempts even if he stays healthy next year, but this study makes me think that it's worth committing to him for 2015 as well, regardless of his performance in 2014. If he's not good enough in 2015, then it's time to cut bait and move on. (Probably with a new head coach, because if EJ sucks the next 2 years, our record will probably stink, and Marrone's out the door.)

Great post! I think most of us in the "no OL at #9" camp could live with an O-line pick at #9 depending on who else was available, especially since Whaley has slammed the door on taking a QB. For me, if both Watkins and Evans are off the board, and one of the top 3 OTs is still there, then by all means take the OT. It would fill a need, provide some injury insurance for Glenn, and help EJ's development. But I'd much rather have a WR with a wide catch radius who can turn some of EJ's inaccurate throws into big completions. And some of these OL-or-bust posts are crazy. People are seriously pointing to Seattle as the model of how to win a Super Bowl on the back of your O-line? That only works if you ignore every objective rating of Seattle's O-line and assume that because they won the Super Bowl, they must have a good O-line. PFF rated them 26th in the league last year! Football Outsiders rated them 9th in adjusted line yards (pretty good!), but dead last in both power success (3rd or 4th and short) and pass blocking. If you're looking for an elite O-Line for us to aspire to, keep looking.

Everything? What about the debate in the 16th century about whether the Earth revolved around the Sun?

I tend to agree.

Good thread! I'm not nearly a big enough draftnik to qualify, but I'll at least go on record with the guys I really like: Mike Evans, Troy Niklas, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. ASJ I think will either boom or bust, Evans I just think will boom, and Niklas I think will be an above-average but unspectacular starter for a long time. Right now, it's looking like Evans is a definite Round 1 guy (hopefully at #9!), but there's at least a chance that 1 or both of the TEs goes in Round 3 or later.

Maybe, maybe not. I do agree in the abstract that a team's capologist/contract negotiator (which is the public face of Overdorf's job) *should* be reporting to the GM or at least defer to the GM on football-related matters. But Overdorf is a long-standing member of Ralph's inner circle, and his position with the Bills is probably comparable with Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) at a Biotech company (or whomever's in charge of the research/pipeline - titles vary by company). And I don't think a hypothetical Biotech CEO could or at least would fire her CSO without the board's approval, especially one who's been with the company for a very long run of sustained profit. And Overdorf has certainly been around for a very long run of sustained profit. I don't think Brandon's really in a position to fire Overdorf, but my hope is that he does have real authority over the dorf. And my second hope is that he's willing and able to use that authority to reign Overdorf in. It's equally plausible to me that he's on board with Overdorf's cost-saving measures.

I fully believe the stories about Littman/Overdorf interfering with football operations. This is hardly the first time these kinds of rumors have come out, and it just makes too much sense. I don't think they interfere 100% of the time, but I do think that 1 or both of them sometimes act as a shadow GM, and both of them definitely rank higher in the organization than Whaley or Marrone. What I don't know is exactly where Russ Brandon stands in all this. There are a wide variety of opinions in this thread, ranging from "Brandon is 100% with Whaley/Marrone" to "Brandon is 100% a lifer, even though he's not as old as the others." Even among the former contingent, there's a wide variety -- a few seem convinced that he's going to make major changes soon, more think that he has no power to change this situation, and probably the most don't claim to know. I.e., "this is a test of Russ Brandon's power." For me, I don't claim to know either Brandon's allegiance or his power within the organization. (If we *did* see major changes, that would pretty much prove that he's against the lifers and has full control of the team, but if we don't, it doesn't tell us anything.) What I tend to think, but am not confident of, is that Brandon is probably somewhere in the middle. He was pretty directly responsible for Whaley getting his current job, and though he claimed that he wasn't the one who hired Marrone, those two have a Syracuse connection that was pointed out at the time of Marrone's hiring. He has shown some tendencies towards newer-type thinking and strategies, and it's hard for me to believe he's 100% in lockstep with the lifers. Having said that, he worked his way up right through the system, paid his dues to Ralph, and has never been one to bite the hand that feeds him or really challenge the old ways of doing things. He's more of a "gradual change through our establish systems" than a "tear down and rebuild" kind of guy. But what's he going to do about this? Or can he do anything about this? I wouldn't put it past the Bills and Brandon to claim that he has 100% control of team operations, and that Littman & Overdorf report to him, when in fact all 3 report to Ralph (or no one), and Brandon's control is limited to things the public can see. Even if the Bills' company line is accurate, there's still limits on Brandon's power. My company's CEO couldn't just up and fire our CFO without the board's approval. In this case, Ralph is the board, and I think it's pretty safe to assume that 1.) Brandon probably won't ask Ralph for approval to fire Littman or Overdorf, and 2.) Ralph wouldn't give that approval even if asked. But if Brandon *does* think that the lifers are overreaching, there are other ways to handle things than by firing them. If they truly do report to him, he should be able to rein them in somewhat -- keep their titles the same, but make it clear to them that certain duties are strictly confined to the GM's office. If that happened, we'd never hear about it (obviously), but we could see subtle effects -- small changes in the type of quotes we see from coach/GM, for example.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/tj-graham?id=2532850 TJ Graham's combine numbers (with his 2012 rank in parentheses): 40-yard dash: 4.41 seconds (T-7th) Bench press: 8 reps (not in top 15) Vertical jump: 33.5" (not in top 15) Broad jump: 10'0" (not in top 15) 3-cone drill: 6.77 seconds (3rd) 20-yd shuttle: 4.18 seconds (15th) For comparison, here's the 10th-best value for each of those from this year's WRs at the combine: 40-yard dash: 4.44 seconds (Graham would've placed 5th) Bench press: 16 reps Vertical jump: 38.0" Broad jump: 10'4" 3-cone drill: 6.76 seconds (Graham would've tied for 10th) 20-yd shuttle: 4.01 seconds (Graham would've tied for 15th) Compared to me or any normal human being, TJ Graham is absolutely an elite athlete. Compared only to the pool of NFL WRs, however, he might not be much better than average. Particularly when you factor in his size (5'11", 188 lbs.). If he was putting up those numbers at Kelvin Benjamin's size, it would be much more impressive. (For the record, he did beat Benjamin in everything but bench press, which is pretty meaningless anyway.) Graham's speed is probably elite (although Goodwin looks significantly faster on the same field), but it's really unfair to call him an elite athlete overall. He's far too earthbound. Sorry for the off-topic post; I'll shut up now. Just bothers me when people overstate the case for TJ Graham. There's a reason most draftniks projected him as a 5th-7th round pick.

Me personally, I would prefer Evans at 9 and a TE (ideally Niklas) in the 2nd. Niklas won't be the game-breaker we'd love to have at TE, but I don't know if any of these guys will. Ebron's hands scare me, and beyond that, I think that Marrone favors a TE who can spend more time on the line than Ebron or Amaro is used to. Niklas spent the vast majority of his time lining up as a true TE in-line (see link below), and looks to me like an upgrade over Chandler. Kind of a Heath Miller/Brandon Pettigrew type who can block, catch a few first downs, and be used as a solid red zone threat, but who won't terrify opposing defenses. That's what Evans is for. He just strikes me as the perfect weapon for EJ, especially as EJ works on developing his accuracy. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46006/349/peshek-top-4-wr-metrics http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46280/349/peshek-te-metrics

In fairness to Mayock & Kiper (both of whom I respect), their TV job is most comparable to being a national scout, not a GM. By all accounts, Buddy Nix was a fantastic scout, but by my account, not a great GM. I could easily see Mayock or Kiper going the same way. If I ran an NFL team, I'd be happy to hire either as a high-level scout, but I don't think that job would pay nearly as well as their TV gigs. The only defense of Lombardi's recent tenure is that he may have had essentially no power whatsoever. Tough to say, but he certainly wasn't allowed to talk to the media very much. Having said that, I'm not a big Lombardi fan. I was initially very impressed by his appearances on the BS Report, but after hearing him enough times, I came to the conclusion that he has a variety of very impressive ways of telling you things you already know. He can talk about blue-chippers all day and it sounds great, but all he's saying is that you want to get elite players. Duh. What GM is out there trying to build around role players? (Don't say Doug Whaley.) One of his big things in Cleveland was focusing on getting half-time leads. Yeah, no shot, Sherlock. Who is out there with a gameplan of being down 10 at the half? "We're gonna lull them into a false sense of confidence!" 100% agreed.

Hope springs eternal in the offseason!

First off, this is awesome - thanks for posting! Second, between this and their first WR breakdown, I've decided I want Mike Evans in the first and Troy Niklas (or ASJ) in the 2nd. Re-sign Byrd, fix the O-line in free agency, and you can go defense in rounds 3-7 if you want.

+1. The specifics of the Ben-Gals (terrible name, btw) weight requirements seem a little harsh, but having some sort of weight requirement isn't fundamentally a problem in this case. Physical fitness and attractiveness are bone fide job qualifications for NFL cheerleaders. Thank you both. I get that a lot of women are willing to deal with terrible pay/working conditions for the "glamour" of being an NFL cheerleader, but that doesn't make it right. Whether in-person or through images, cheerleaders are used to promote the hell out of their team, and they should be paid accordingly. Would anyone be okay with the Bengals' marketing department making below minimum wage?

I think he would be best served by getting as much money as possible. This is likely his only chance for a big payday, unless he's better than both of us think. His market value definitely won't get higher by staying in Denver or remaining a #2/3 option somewhere else. All the same doubts would still be there, and he'd be older to boot.

The Legend continues... Despite being only 3'2" and 129 lbs., Kiko Alonso managed to place 4th in the league in tackles. Plus he can't get high enough to hit a ballcarrier in the head, so he avoids personal fouls too!

Decker is a solid player, Manning or no Manning, but I don't see him as a difference-maker or someone the opposing D has to scheme for. (As opposed to Demaryius Thomas, who is a beast.) At #3 WR money, I'd want him on my team, but I anticipate him getting more than that. You never really know -- a lot of players found the market wanting last year and signed bargain 1-year deals. If Decker found himself in that boat this year, I'd be all for signing him, but I can't see it happening. If he winds up stuck with a cheapo 1-year contract, he'd be best served trying to sign with the best possible QB to help his numbers for next year. The only way I could see him signing with a team like the Bills (or Jets, Jaguars, etc.) is if they pony up a long-term deal with significant guaranteed money. And count me OUT on wanting to give him that kind of deal. I think you can overpay for guys like Demaryius Thomas, but not guys like Eric Decker. I guarantee you that some free agent WR who signs a cheap deal this year will put up at least 80% of what Decker does next year. I'd rather try to find that guy, and spend the money on re-signing our own guys or trying to upgrade the O-line. (Or a big-time TE, but I don't think there'll be any available.)

Really fun! Thanks to OP for posting!