Cash

Pretty surprising - I thought he actually had half-decent numbers for once last year? Maybe that was 2016. Anyway, this is one of the few draft busts I've ever called, so obviously I am a profound football knower.

Sorry, only read the first post and snap-responded. Obviously not quick enough on the trigger.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

Presumably he'll still be part of the rotation at DT, if he makes the team. I haven't seen anything from him so far that suggests he's worth getting excited about.

I like it!!

Snead's okay, but I wouldn't recommend him. He's a viable NFL receiver, but I don't know that he's any better than Deonte Thompson. If Thompson had had Brees as his QB his whole career, his numbers would be a lot more impressive. Don't know enough about the other 2 to have an opinion.

Sal and I have pretty much the same amount of inside knowledge of the Bills' plans.

I definitely remember lots of people raving about Hyde in the signing thread.

I'll be shocked if we sign Matthews; I meant that with his terrible 2017, he might choose to sign in a good situation for a very cheap contract in the hopes that his numbers rebound, and thus not be a qualifying FA loss. We'll see on the others - I'm no expert. Gaines getting $9-10mil average value wouldn't surprise me, but Brown getting $8mil would.

Didn't look at 2017, but 2016 had Dak Prescott and Alex Collins - that's pretty good. In general, any 3rd round comp pick is basically the top pick of the 4th round, which is pretty useful. Agreed. If there's a non-qualifying FA who can help about as much as a qualifying FA, that should be taken into consideration. But a lot of that consideration depends on what picks you might be getting.

I'm a big proponent of using the comp pick system as much as possible - I was one of the whiners last offseason that we lost a 3rd round pick (Gilmore) and a 4th round pick (Woods). I don't have a lot of basis for this, but I think Beane also values comp picks - he wasn't hired until most of our FA signings were already done. But having said that, I will go on record and say that we won't get any comp picks from this free agency period. And I'm probably okay with that. Why? Last year, we lost 5 qualifying free agents, and Gilmore (3rd) and Woods (4th or 5th) were sure to be worth fairly high picks. This year, I think we lose fewer qualifying free agents. Here's everyone I think has a chance to qualify: E.J. Gaines Kyle Williams Jordan Matthews Preston Brown Deonte Thompson I think it's very possible that Matthews signs a 1 year minimum deal in the hopes of cashing in after a year of better numbers. Kyle might return to the Bills or retire. Preston might be back. Thompson might not get a qualifying contract. And even Gaines is unlikely to rate better than a 4th rounder (I think 5th rounder more likely). That's not a lot of return for constraining yourself to only 0 or 1 qualifying free agents. Like last year, we have a lot of holes on the team. (Maybe more - our DT situation was a lot better in 2017 than it is in 2018.) Unlike last year, there's not as much payoff to limiting signings to non-qualifying free agents.

I would not make that deal. Very happy with how things played out overall.

At the very least, they'll try to! I agree; I don't think training camp will be just Shady, Ivory, and 4 UDFA/Joe Banyard types. Only thing I disagree with is the "younger" part - if they don't get a guy in the draft, I think they'll look to the "bargain bin" FA market, and youth will take a backseat to other qualities.

Yup, fairly similar situation here. That's why I'm pretty meh/slight negative on this signing, rather than doom & gloom like a couple posters in this thread. If the Bills see another potential Kamara in the 3rd or maybe even 2nd, I don't think the presence of Ivory will stop them from pulling the trigger. And as a veteran backup, you could do worse than Ivory. I just think they overpaid - I would've expected Ivory to get closer to the league minimum, and I don't see Ivory as a guy who's much better at his age than a minimum-salary guy like Joe Banyard or Tavaris Cadet. It's pretty weird that LeGarrette Blount had 1100 yards and scored 18 TDs, became a free agent, and got basically a 1 year minimum deal, while Chris Ivory had a pretty weak 2016 and 2017, got cut, and now gets high-end backup money. And I stand by my original statement. I watch most Saints games, and Peterson was definitely the #2 back at the start of the season, with Kamara as the 3rd down/receiving back. Even as good as Kamara was, the pricey veteran backup got more carries until week 4. Unless our Kamara 2.0 is absolutely unbelievable in training camp, I expect it would be a similar situation for us - Ivory has the main backup job until week 4-6 or so. How long did it take Rico/McDermott to realize that Tolbert shouldn't be getting 10 carries a game as the primary backup last year? I'm guessing it would take Daboll/McDermott about that long to realize that Kamara 2.0 should be getting Ivory's work next year.

I don't mind Sal C - he seems like a nice guy - but sometimes his analysis is a little underwhelming. He seems to be implying that Ivory is being brought in to compete and might theoretically lose out to a different FA signing and/or a rookie and be cut. But if the reports are true that Ivory's contract has $3.25 million guaranteed, there's virtually no way he gets cut before 2019. Follow the money. The Bills are currently #1 in 2018 cap $ at RB with only 3 players under contract. Chris Ivory is currently the #21 RB in average salary, and should wind up around #28 or so after free agency and the draft. That's a lot more than just being brought in to compete - he is our primary backup RB until proven otherwise. Now, I'm sure that if he sucks (hopefully not), McDermott will be willing to bench or cut him, which is good. Other than Tolbert, he hasn't shown much favoritism so far, and even Tolbert eventually lost most of his role before injuries put him back in the lineup. (And a lot of the problems with Tolbert might be on Rico - I don't think either Tolbert or McDermott had the idea of lining Tolbert out wide and throwing him a quick slant.)

Thanks! I was really surprised his was that high - I was expecting it to be much lower. Selective memory, I guess.

Chris Ivory: 19 fumbles on 1206 touches (1112 carries + 94 receptions) - 1.57% fumble rate Thurman: 50 fumbles on 3349 touches (2877 carries + 472 receptions) - 1.49% fumble rate Emmitt: 61 fumbles on 4924 touches (4409 carries + 515 receptions) - 1.24% fumble rate If Emmitt had fumbled at Ivory's rate, he would've had 77 fumbles in his career instead of 61. (Only about 2-3 fumble difference for Thurman.) I also checked on a couple other RBs that came to mind: LeGarrette Blount: 1.22% fumble rate Antowain Smith: 1.30% fumble rate Fred Jackson: 1.69% fumble rate Marshawn Lynch: 1.07% fumble rate LeSean McCoy: 0.84% fumble rate (!) I generally agree that it's not THAT big a deal. But I think it's a valid criticism, because fumbles are a lot easier to overlook if they're backed up by HOF production. Much harder to swallow for a guy who's getting you 3 yards and a cloud of dust.

Chris Ivory is definitely nowhere near the 21st best RB in the NFL. Probably closer to 21st best backup than 21st best overall. Granted, he'll get bumped down by some actual free agents, but I still expect him to be a little overpaid next year. Not by a huge amount, but these things add up. I didn't realize he had so many fumbles - yikes! Looks like 2016 was the big problem - 5 fumbles on 117 carries compared to 2 on 112 last year. But he's had at least 2 fumbles every year since 2013, and it's not like he's had a lot of carries in those years, either. I'm downgrading my rating from "not bad" to "kinda bad but not terrible".

Meh. You could do worse, so I don't mind this, but I'm not excited. I was a big Chris Ivory fan when he was with the Saints, but he's 30 now and IMO in decline. Yards per carry last 4 years: 3.4, 3.8, 4.3, 4.1. I'll be surprised if he's over 4 for us next year. Pluses: He's a real NFL player who knows how to play RB Not huge money Could serve as a decent goal-line back? (I haven't seen him in that role in a while, so not sure if he's actually good at it or just seems like he would be) Doesn't count against comp pick formula Less pressure to draft a RB in 3rd round or higher, but still have the option to do so if a great prospect is there Minuses: Best days are likely behind him, not clear how much he has left in the tank Money is still way higher than that of a 4th/5th round pick, and there'll be at least 1 of those who's better than Ivory this year All in all, not bad. I'm with others who think that he likely takes most of Tolbert's carries. The question becomes, does that mean Tolbert is gone, or does the team ask him to switch to FB and cut the higher-paid DiMarco? I hope we don't intend to carry Tolbert as basically a mascot. I'm sure he's great for the locker room/culture and all that, but he makes too much money not to contribute on the field. I'm okay with him as FB if that's the route they go.

He also had a pretty decent career... certainly disappointing for a #7 overall pick, but people act like he was just worthless. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MamuMi20.htm 8 sacks in year 2 (as a 16-game starter on a 10-6 team), 8.5 sacks in year 5 after missing year 4 with a knee injury. I'm not sure why he stopped playing after 6 years (doesn't seem to be injury related), but he was an okay player during that time. I'd gladly take him over Aaron Maybin or Erik Flowers.

Very interesting! I haven't seen this stat before - any idea if this has been done for previous draft classes? I'd love to see how well it correlates to NFL success.

Has the full audio of either interview been posted anywhere yet?

Pretty good evaluation, OP.

I generally like PFF, but if this is the outcome, I have to question their methodology. Our O-line was not good at pass blocking this year. Take the Tyrod flame war out of the equation for a minute - how did the pass blocking look with Peterman under center? Our O-line had some nice plays in pass protection here and there, but there were way too many times when a guy came free almost right away, and several whole games where the opposing D was in our backfield seemingly the whole game. Again, I don't know what PFF is looking at or using as their criteria that translates those results into #2 in the league.

These Madden-generated rookie names get more unrealistic every year.