Cash

Yes - it's an admission that a given prospect's position will be different depending on what scheme they're drafted into (mostly 3-4 vs 4-3), but their *role* in the defense will mostly be the same. Jerry Hughes, for example, came into the league as an OLB in Indy's 3-4 scheme at the time, but now plays DE in our 4-3. Von Miller is another good example - he actually starts at OLB in a 4-3, but plays DE on passing downs. He's listed on the roster as LB, but in terms of how their defenses use them, Miller has a lot more in common with Hughes than he does with Matt Milano. Right, that's another good point. Bruce was certainly an edge rusher as a 3-4 DE in the 90s, but not every 3-4 DE fits that bill. Likewise, most (not all) 3-4 OLBs and some 4-3 OLBs fit that category as well. Sticking with the 90s defenses, Cornelius Bennett was an "edge" at OLB, but Darryl Talley was not.

I wouldn’t mind 3 picks on day 2, but in that case, I’d rather save picks to try to have 2 second rounders, rather than move up to 33 (and only have enough left to get into the late 3rd). Looking at who’s left, the only position where I really see a drop off that might hit before 40 is TE. I don’t actually think there’s that much difference between Metcalf and the next few WRs. I do think it’s a big drop from Irv Smith to the next TE, but if he’s gone, there’s a good chance Ferguson or Winovich is still there. Or at least one of the WRs. Basically I think the draft is so inherently uncertain that there’s no realistic way that we can be sure whoever goes at 33 will be better than who we’d get at 40.

This (and having a lot less free time) is why I've mostly stopped "scouting" prospects pre-draft. Easier for me to just read profiles and watch youtube clips of the guys we draft after the fact, and either get hyped or try to talk myself into them. If it turns out that I think Ed Oliver is the next Aaron Donald, I won't know it unless the Bills draft him.

That's right! I believe they used middle initials that year to differentiate them. Roy L Williams and... Roy C Williams maybe?

He won't be. Being able to change direction is very important for a WR. He's not a top 10 player in this draft, therefore he can't be BPA at #9.

Pretty cool that BPA last year just happened to be the 2 positions at which they were desperate for starters. The Bills are absolutely “eyeing” some number of players. Which ones? I have no idea! But I have a fairly decent idea of the positions. Not as good as last year, when the QBs heading into the draft were Peterman & McCarron, and the MLBs were... no one? But where things stand now, the Bills have signed 4 OL to potentially starting contracts - at least high end backup $$. Also signed 2 WRs for too much to justify not playing major roles. But no DL to replace Kyle Williams, and our interior/run D was a weakness last year to begin with. Add in that we currently only have 2 TEs on the roster, and the best one is maybe around Clay’s level from 2-3 years ago, and I think that 2 of DT, DE, and TE will be their first 2 picks. Probably DL round 1, TE round 2, with maybe a small trade up for the TE a la Zay Jonesa couple years ago.

Wow! Surprised he got that much less than Morse. I think I'd rather have Morse, but what do I know? Still don't particularly think we overpaid, just think the Panthers got a bargain.

DL yes, but I disagree on OL. The Bills have signed a C, a C/G, and an LT/RT in free agency. I think that Dawkins stays at LT, Nsekhe starts at RT, Morse at C, and Long at one of the G spots. And between guys returning from last year and dumpster-dive free agents, the Bills can probably find a "good enough" starter at the last G spot. In any case, I don't think there's any guards rated high enough to take in the top 10 this year? I think it's looking like either premier DL - either edge or interior rusher - or trade down. TE is the wildcard, but I think (hope) that the Bills would only go TE in the first after a trade down. Greedy Williams would be the other wildcard if he's there. Anything else would surprise me.

I will be surprised/disappointed if the Bills don't draft a TE in the first 3 rounds. There's still only 2 on the roster, and the money they gave to Kroft probably precludes another significant FA at the position. (I do think they'll sign at least 1 more FA, but it'll be more of a 1 year deal close to the vet minimum.) I'd be okay with a TE at #9, although I don't think there's any worth the pick this year. I'd be thrilled with one of Hockenson/Irv Smith/Fant either at #40 or in the 1st after a trade down.

I like this signing! He's old, but legit good. Should hopefully be a solid starter for at least next year.

Agreed. Last year was a great time to sign Brown: production >> price. This year, not so much. I think we're getting a below-average WR for average $$. I wasn't on the Antonio Brown bandwagon, but I'd rather have an elite guy like him for $18mil/year than 2 John Brown types. We'll see, hopefully I'm wrong.

To clarify, I'm talking about what the Bills SHOULD do, not necessarily what they ARE doing. Last year's team was a loooooong way away from being a contender. More than a full offseason away, in my opinion.

Given how it turned out, not much. (And I haven't seen any credible speculation about what the trade compensation was yet.) There's probably a price point at which AB would've committed to playing for the Bills next year. There certainly was for Shady when we traded for him - he was very upset by that trade until we gave him a new deal, then it was all smiles. If the Bills had gone all-out to get Brown regardless of cost, that would concern me. The Bills are at LEAST a year away from being a "win-now" team. I certainly don't mind the team pursuing one of the top players (ever) at a position of need, but there's a point at which the price is no longer worth it.

What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols?

This is my biggest issue. Our run D was still pretty bad last year. I don’t know if it was because of everyone around Star and he’s blameless, but that seems dubious. Seems more likely that teams run like crazy on us for the >50% of plays when he’s out. I don’t have any major problems with the signing, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a Clay-type contract in a couple years.

I think the poll is setting the bar a little too high, honestly. If we're a playoff contender next year (not necessarily a Super Bowl contender), I would consider that a success. It's hard for me to define playoff contender, but I think it's basically a team that *should* make the playoffs, even if it doesn't. If we have the point differential of a 10-6 team, but get a bunch of unlucky breaks and go 9-7 or 8-8, I might still be happy (but disappointed) with the season. If we go 10-6 and miss out on the playoffs via tiebreakers, that'll suck, but the season will still be a success. If we have a 2017-like season, where we probably should've gone 7-9, but lucked into a 9-7 record and crazy playoff tiebreakers, I'll be happy, but it won't bode as well for 2020 as the above scenarios.

Great write up as always! Fully agree with you on Shady - I think he’s still got it, and the only way it makes sense to get rid of him is if the offense just doesn’t want to get RBs in space. (But if that’s the case, then we probably need a new offense anyway.) I was looking forward to your thoughts on Edmunds this game. You’ve been hard on him all year, but he was a monster yesterday. I’ve felt about Edmunds all year about the same way you’ve felt about Allen. Maybe I’m just wearing rose-colored glasses, but I just chalk up all his mistakes to being a rookie, and a 20 year old rookie learning a new position at that. I think he’s going to be absolutely amazing by 2020, and maybe even as soon as next year. As for Allen, I’m MUCH more encouraged now than I was either when he was drafted, or during his pre-injury stretch. Still plenty of mistakes, but there’s a fair amount of good things too. And it was nice to see him have a better game after a couple weeks of playing worse. Obviously a young player can’t literally perform better every game - ups and downs happen even while you’re improving - but it’s nice to end the season with one of his better performances. And in terms of fantasy stats, definitely his best.

Agree with all of this. Especially right now, when we (are about to) have tons of cap room and tons of holes to fill. I'm also against cutting guys to save cap right now. If (Clay) a player (Clay) isn't helping the team (Clay), that's one thing, but if he's good but just not worth the money? Keep him!

It's looking pretty unlikely right now, but I'd love to beat Miami to knock them out of the playoffs. I hope they at least have something to play for in week 17, even if the other games don't wind up going their way. In the even less likely scenario that the Bills & Jets both beat the Patriots, I would be able to live with a loss to the Dolphins to cost the Patriots the division. I'd still be rooting for a win, but just... not as hard as normally.

No. Everyone’s excited because the old incompetent boss is gone. Eventually the new incompetent boss will mess things up.

Have to admit, I was disappointed by this one, Spags. Not your best. Don’t get down though. You’ll do better next time!

Agreed. I listened to Buscaglia & Fairburn’s podcast, and they wouldn’t shut up about the back shoulder throw to Zay on that play. Yes, it was an Aaron Rodgers type throw, but: 1. It was a very tough catch, and 2. He had a man underneath who could’ve easily picked up the first AND gotten out of bounds #1 isn’t really a problem in and of itself, but on 3rd and 11 there, the checkdown was the way better option. A rookie is going to make mistakes, and that was one of them. Overall pretty happy with how Allen played though. Even though we’re no longer “in the hunt”, I’m pretty excited to watch him play down the stretch.

Why does everything need to be polarized one way or another? Why can’t it be both? My take: nice play by Allen to try to get it there on the run. Not actually a good pass, but maybe could’ve been caught. Would’ve been a great catch if made, but it didn’t happen. It was like a foot away from being a TD. Does that need to be only one person’s 100% fault, or can it be that we just came up a little short?

Agreed! I’m back in on Zay.

I’d keep Shady for sure, and Derek Anderson as #3 for mentorship. I’d only cut Clay if I thought there were better options. I think a great deal of this roster is expendable.