Cash

I expected a rebuild to not have a historically bad offense. Teams rebuild every year, yet somehow manage not to have one of the 5 worst units of all time.

I'm not upset that the team is 2-7, or that the team is bad. I'm upset because: 1. We might have the worst offense in NFL history, or at least bottom 5. That's not okay. 2. The team doesn't appear well coached or motivated. We aren't just losing, we're getting blown out, and we're committing penalties and dumb plays at an alarming rate. 3. The FO hasn't shown any real proficiency for offense. Peterman is the most glaring example, but of all the acquisitions on offense the last 2 years, most of them have been bad. Why should I think they'll have a much better success rate moving forward? Yeah, for me, I'm hoping that either Bosa/Oliver/whoever is the real deal and we take him, or we get an RG3 type trade down deal and get like 3 good starters out of it.

No one will ever convince me that Gailey's skill position talent was better than McD's. Stevie, Donald Jones, David Nelson, Brad Smith, and Fast Freddie Smith at WR? I'll take Benjamin/Zay and 10 total games of Kearse/Pryor. Even Andre Holmes is better than Donald Jones. Give me Clay/Croom over Chandler and... Lee Smith? Don't remember, but there wasn't much there. There's an argument that Gailey had better RBs, but Spiller was really bad as a rookie and Marshawn was traded that year. Freddy was great, obviously. I'd say it's roughly a wash against Shady/Ivory. Point is, as bad as our skill position guys are, Gailey had it worse. And didn't exactly have a stellar QB or O-line. And yet we still had a semi-competitive NFL offense. in 2018, our offense is on pace to be maybe the worst in league history. That can't just be chalked up to lack of talent. To be the worst ever requires abject failure across the board. No one involved gets excused - not Beane, not McDermott, not Daboll, not any of the position coaches, not any of the players.

Is that supposed to make us feel better about the state of our team and the people running it? It doesn't. Thinking that our environment is enough on its own to ruin a franchise QB makes me feel much worse.

Do you really think the offense can go from worst in modern NFL history to good (or even mediocre) in just one year? I think that realistically, we're looking at a bottom 5 or bottom 10 offense next year, even if the Bills do a good job rebuilding it in the offseason. Goff's turnaround coincided with a coaching change. Do you think he would be doing this well if Fisher was still his HC? For the record, I still don't think McD should be fired this year. But he shouldn't feel comfortable, either. Presiding over the worst offense in league history should make anyone's seat warm.

Haven't read through the whole thread yet, but just wanted to say that while Shaw's posts are always good, this one really stood head and shoulders above the rest. Thank you for articulating a lot of my worries about this team in a way I haven't been able to do so myself.

Peterman was the opening day starter, and the team openly stated that the plan was to have Allen sit longer than he actually did.

Teams go 3-13, 2-14 every year - no big deal. Teams don't have the worst offense in NFL history every year. So I think it's totally fair to be upset about that. And one of my concerns is that even a huge jump on offense next year will only take us to about 31st in the league.

Yeah, I don't really mind that the Bills are 2-5, I mind that in 4 (soon to be 5?) of those losses, they basically didn't show up. It's depressing to watch. Chan's 3-13 season was much more entertaining. I think we started 0-8, but we were competitive in most or all of those games. And for the record, I'd probably take our current receivers (including Clay and Shady out of the backfield) over that team's receivers. It's at least close. Stevie and Chandler were the only guys who really belonged in the NFL, and Chandler probably should've been a backup.

Count me out on Tavon Austin. Maybe in a Brandon Tate role - punt returner who gets like 5 snaps at WR - but otherwise I'll pass at any price.

Fully agree with all of this. The only thing I'd add is that in addition to a draft's specific strengths/weaknesses, positional value has to be accounted for. If you're between a pass rusher and a guard in the first, and they have the same grade, you should probably take the pass rusher. Because you're more likely to find a decent enough guard later in the draft or cheaper in FA than a decent enough pass rusher. This goes double for very high picks. IMO, the only players you should draft in the top 10 are QBs, pass rushers, LTs, "total package" WRs (think Megatron, Julio, AJ Green) and players you think have HOF-potential talent. Obviously that last one is the tricky part. Looking back at the 2012 draft, I'd probably rather have Keuchly over any of the 3 QBs in the top 10, but I can't say the same about Mark Barron. Very much agree with the bolded. More below... I also totally agree with the bolded here. However, while that's true in the hypothetical you were responding to, I'm not sure how applicable it is to the real world. It's pretty easy to justify taking the 8.5 over the 7.5. But I think many (most?) draft decisions come down to more like a 7.2 vs. a 7.1 vs. another 7.2. Does the GM really have so much confidence in the highly-inexact process of scouting to say that both of the 7.2s are better than the 7.1?

Yeah, maybe. I just look at past drafts, and even in the good ones, there's almost always a Cyrus Kouandijo in the first few picks. I think looking at swapping day 3 picks for players could be very fruitful, especially given the slim pickings in FA. Who's the 2018/2019 equivalent of late-prime Brandon Marshall? That guy seemed to be traded for a 6th round pick every other year, and put up big numbers every time.

Two great posts, OP. I'm pretty down on the immediate future of the Bills, but this makes me feel a little better. Not all the way, haha - there's still the possibility that we make Golden Tate and John Brown the 2 highest-paid WRs in football, just in time for both of their careers to crater. Then follow it up with a Sammy Watkins-style trade up in the draft. I'm hoping the Bills are smart with their cap $$ this offseason. I don't mind overpaying guys a bit on 1/2 year deals, but I don't see anyone on the FA lists worth a market-setting contract. The upside is sustainability, and preventing the next regime from having to clear out a bunch of bad contracts. The downside is that it's hard to imagine the offense improving much in 2019, unless Allen takes a MAJOR leap. I think our best case offense is just regular bad instead of historically bad.

That's asking a lot, especially if they're only going to use 8 or so picks. It's fairly reasonable to expect the first rounder to be a starter*, and probably one out of the 2nd/3rd rounders. After that, I think you'd be lucky (or good!) if more than 2/7 of the late round picks hit. I think a more realistic expectation is 3 starters and 2-3 quality depth players. *I mean quality starter, not someone who is starting only because there's no better option. It's early yet, but so far the only confirmed quality starters drafter under McD are: Tre White (1st) Dion Dawkins (2nd) Matt Milano (5th) Tremaine Edmunds (1st, debatable if he's quality yet but I say he barely makes the cutoff) Taron Johnson (4th - nickel corner is a starter IMO. Only worry here is durability) Put it another way: in 2017, the Bills went 1/3 on day three picks. In 2018, they went 1/5. If they keep all 7 in 2019, we can probably expect either 1 or 2 hits. If they trade a few, probably just 1, plus whoever they trade up for. Zay Jones would like to remind you that just because you trade up for him doesn't mean he'll be great.

I predicted 5-11, but I thought the team would show up/compete on a regular basis, and ultimately lose due to inferior talent. Basically Dick Jauron 2.0, but with a worse offense. I find it disheartening to see the team not anywhere near competitive in half their games. And I expected the offense to be bad, but not historically bad. I can handle being the worst offense in 2018. I can't handle being the worst offense of all time.

I agree with pretty much all of this, including the part about still letting him do his thing - I think he gets all of 2019 at least (barring something crazy). Regarding the last point, I said last year that we were in Year Zero of a rebuild. What last year basically did was strip the roster of most of the young talent and high salaries. We managed to make the playoffs anyway, and that was awesome. But now the dead cap money has kicked in, and between lack of $$ and just poor judgment, the offensive talent losses the last couple years haven't been adequately replaced. I think it's arguable that we're the same or worse at every single offensive position in 2018, compared to both 2017 and 2016. LT is maybe the exception, but if you count the line as a whole unit, it's certainly worse now than the last two years.

I expect he'll name a starter today - seems like he usually does on Wednesdays.

I was very tempted to vote Peterman, but went for Anderson in the end. It must kill McDermott to bench his only son, but I think McD on some level realizes that he'll lose the team if he doesn't.

Can we please stop with the narrative that Peterman played "great" in preseason? In 3 preseason games this year he threw 3 pick-6s. They all happened to be dropped, but not because of anything Peterman did to make them hard to catch.

This really highlights how lame our offense has been this year. It's been really bad on its own merit, but considering that offense is UP across the league, our performance is in historically bad territory. I knew the offense wouldn't be good, but there's no excuse for fielding one of the worst offenses of all time. I think Jauron 2.0 should get another year almost no matter what, but I've had enough of hearing "it's early in year 2..." Keep that anecdote in mind the next time it looks like the Bills are doing something dumb, and the True Billievers come in with, "these are NFL coaches and they know more about football than you!!"

Probably his greatest regret as an NFL player.

...Complain a lot on this board, but otherwise not much.

Plus, by the time Peterman's hypothetical throw gets to the "open" slot guy, the safety will have come over to make a play on the ball. A lot of armchair QBs seem to think that NFL QBs are capable of teleporting the ball to the WR instantaneously.

Mathison is before my time, so I'll defer to people who saw him play. But honestly, I don't think Peterman could've made any of those (few) completions on the "highlight" reel.

I hope so on both counts!