Cash

What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols?

This is my biggest issue. Our run D was still pretty bad last year. I don’t know if it was because of everyone around Star and he’s blameless, but that seems dubious. Seems more likely that teams run like crazy on us for the >50% of plays when he’s out. I don’t have any major problems with the signing, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a Clay-type contract in a couple years.

I think the poll is setting the bar a little too high, honestly. If we're a playoff contender next year (not necessarily a Super Bowl contender), I would consider that a success. It's hard for me to define playoff contender, but I think it's basically a team that *should* make the playoffs, even if it doesn't. If we have the point differential of a 10-6 team, but get a bunch of unlucky breaks and go 9-7 or 8-8, I might still be happy (but disappointed) with the season. If we go 10-6 and miss out on the playoffs via tiebreakers, that'll suck, but the season will still be a success. If we have a 2017-like season, where we probably should've gone 7-9, but lucked into a 9-7 record and crazy playoff tiebreakers, I'll be happy, but it won't bode as well for 2020 as the above scenarios.

Great write up as always! Fully agree with you on Shady - I think he’s still got it, and the only way it makes sense to get rid of him is if the offense just doesn’t want to get RBs in space. (But if that’s the case, then we probably need a new offense anyway.) I was looking forward to your thoughts on Edmunds this game. You’ve been hard on him all year, but he was a monster yesterday. I’ve felt about Edmunds all year about the same way you’ve felt about Allen. Maybe I’m just wearing rose-colored glasses, but I just chalk up all his mistakes to being a rookie, and a 20 year old rookie learning a new position at that. I think he’s going to be absolutely amazing by 2020, and maybe even as soon as next year. As for Allen, I’m MUCH more encouraged now than I was either when he was drafted, or during his pre-injury stretch. Still plenty of mistakes, but there’s a fair amount of good things too. And it was nice to see him have a better game after a couple weeks of playing worse. Obviously a young player can’t literally perform better every game - ups and downs happen even while you’re improving - but it’s nice to end the season with one of his better performances. And in terms of fantasy stats, definitely his best.

Agree with all of this. Especially right now, when we (are about to) have tons of cap room and tons of holes to fill. I'm also against cutting guys to save cap right now. If (Clay) a player (Clay) isn't helping the team (Clay), that's one thing, but if he's good but just not worth the money? Keep him!

It's looking pretty unlikely right now, but I'd love to beat Miami to knock them out of the playoffs. I hope they at least have something to play for in week 17, even if the other games don't wind up going their way. In the even less likely scenario that the Bills & Jets both beat the Patriots, I would be able to live with a loss to the Dolphins to cost the Patriots the division. I'd still be rooting for a win, but just... not as hard as normally.

No. Everyone’s excited because the old incompetent boss is gone. Eventually the new incompetent boss will mess things up.

Have to admit, I was disappointed by this one, Spags. Not your best. Don’t get down though. You’ll do better next time!

Agreed. I listened to Buscaglia & Fairburn’s podcast, and they wouldn’t shut up about the back shoulder throw to Zay on that play. Yes, it was an Aaron Rodgers type throw, but: 1. It was a very tough catch, and 2. He had a man underneath who could’ve easily picked up the first AND gotten out of bounds #1 isn’t really a problem in and of itself, but on 3rd and 11 there, the checkdown was the way better option. A rookie is going to make mistakes, and that was one of them. Overall pretty happy with how Allen played though. Even though we’re no longer “in the hunt”, I’m pretty excited to watch him play down the stretch.

Why does everything need to be polarized one way or another? Why can’t it be both? My take: nice play by Allen to try to get it there on the run. Not actually a good pass, but maybe could’ve been caught. Would’ve been a great catch if made, but it didn’t happen. It was like a foot away from being a TD. Does that need to be only one person’s 100% fault, or can it be that we just came up a little short?

Agreed! I’m back in on Zay.

I’d keep Shady for sure, and Derek Anderson as #3 for mentorship. I’d only cut Clay if I thought there were better options. I think a great deal of this roster is expendable.

Not a big difference to me. In the NFL, both QB and receiver need to read/understand the defense on a given play and potentially adjust as a result. Zay was on the opposite end of that last year against Carolina when TT threw it where he should have gone instead of where the route was called to. For those of you who think Zay should’ve sat against the coverage, consider that doing so would’ve cost him his first TD. Not exactly apples to apples, but still the same general idea. Having said that, I thought it was a pretty good game overall for Allen. More misfires this week than last week, but he generally looked good. This info about the missed TD does make me feel a little better about it - more of a rookie mistake than a terrible throw. The other two missed TDs (bomb to Foster plus game-ender to Clay) were also not egregious, and arguably at least partially on the receivers. I’m much more encouraged about Allen now than I was after the Vikings game. Yeah, all else aside, it was a bad throw by virtue of this fact alone. A rookie mistake, but not an unforgivable one.

I really only watch Bills games with regularity, so I’ll only weigh in on Allen. I’m very encouraged by what I’ve seen since he came back. I thought he was better against the Jags than today, but still saw a lot better today than I saw earlier this year. The future may just be bright!

Not seeing it, at least not yet. I'm much less discouraged about the offense after last week, but it's still only 1 game, and our hopefully-franchise QB wasn't a part of it. Of the players you listed, all but Teller are on D, and Teller's only played one full game. He's off to a nice start, but not exactly someone who can be counted on. For us to be contenders next year, we'll need a drastic step up at the QB position at a minimum. I haven't seen anything (yet?) that suggests we'll get that next year.

I largely agree with the OP. The only time I think it might ever be beneficial to actually tank would be if a can't-miss QB prospect is going to be available, and you need a QB. Think Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning as seniors, but keep in mind that people advocated tanking for them the previous years, hoping that they'd come out as juniors*. That would've been dumb. (Hi, Jets!) I also wouldn't tank just because you need a QB and it's easier to get one at the top - like last year, for example. Otherwise, I'd rather have something positive to build on, as well as some degree of confidence that the team already has coaches and players that are worth keeping around. Tanking makes more sense in the NBA, where you usually only play 8-9 players a game, but even there, it doesn't generally work very well. Ask the Kings or Suns how quick high picks can take you back to the playoffs. *Yes, I know Luck came out as a redshirt junior, but in the real world, that was his senior year and he graduated from Stanford that year. He could've enrolled in grad school, but never gave any indications that he would, so I felt at the time that the risk of him not declaring for the draft was very low.

Q posed in the thread title A: No, let him die in peace Q posed in the OP itself A: Neutral? I harbor no personal ill will towards him. He tried his best and the result was being a national laughingstock. That's rough, and more so McD's fault than Peterman. But it's not like I'm going to be fauning over the worst QB in history either.

I'm legit surprised that Robert Foster is on the 53 man roster. He did get cut a few weeks back, right? And put on the practice squad? When did he get back on the 53?

Agreed. I hope that improvement happens. I worry that it won't. First, going from where we are now to something like 20th overall is probably like going from 31 to 1 - there's a long way to go. Second, we only have 3 picks in the first 3 rounds. Third, this regime has shown a propensity to trade up, which I'm generally against. Fourth, there aren't that many good free agents available. We'll see though. If Allen makes a big leap (maybe via not being coached by a WR coach?!), that alone will go a long way. The other scenario that worries me is that due to feeling the heat, McBeane go all in on FA spending, winding up with a bunch of bad contracts and a 7-9 team. I'd rather see a few Micah Hyde type signings and roll over a bunch of space. In an ideal world, we'd eventually use that space to re-sign our own (good) players.

That would be great! Good Allen discussion up above, btw. You guys haven't convinced me, but I'll continue to wait and see. I will say that the team has mostly looked more competitive when he plays, even when he plays bad. Small sample size, but hopefully there's something there.

I don't have any proof, but I'll go to my grave believing that the Watkins move was ordered from Brandon/Ralph. That move had marketing all over it. Fully agree with the rationale of WHY it was a bad move. Hated it at the time and now.

I agree with most of this. Whaley is horrible at public/media relations, but clearly had an eye for evaluating pro talent. The draft was more of a mixed bag, but not as bad as people might think - there are still a lot of his picks playing in the NFL, just not for the Bills. If Whaley had been able to hire his own coach, who reported to Whaley rather than to the Pegulas, and actually share a vision for team-building with that coach, things might've been more successful. Going forward, all indications are that McBeane are in lockstep the way Whaley/coach never were, so that's hopefully good. I still think it's not ideal for both coach and GM to report to the owner, though, and I don't love that our rookie coach essentially hired his own GM rather than the other way around. If they don't work out, hopefully the Pegulas ditch both at the same time and start fresh with a GM who's actually in charge. (And hopefully hire a good one!) Go Bills!

I still don't want McD or Beane fired at season's end (or earlier!), although I reserve the right to change my mind if things get even worse. I think I advocated for giving McBeane 4 years when they were brought in, and in theory, I stand by that. In practice, there's no excuse for putting an offense on the field that's this consistently bad. I don't think they need to make the playoffs in 2019 to save their jobs or anything, but if 2019 is as bad as 2018, they shouldn't be with the team in 2020. I would ideally like to have some amount of hope by the end of 2018 - young players getting better, the offense scoring on its own once in a while, etc. But there NEEDS to be something to build on next year, or it's time to move on. I don't think giving Dick Jauron more time would've helped. I don't think giving Gregggggo more time would've helped. I don't think giving Jeff Fisher more time would've helped the Rams. I don't think giving John Fox more time would've helped the Bears. For now, I'm willing to give McBeane more time, mostly because of last year.

Agreed. You're a lot higher on Allen than I am, but I'll wait and see on that front. He's probably not as bad as I feared he'd be, but what still worries me is that I can't off the top of my head think of a play he's made with his arm. Once he gets back, hopefully we see some progress/development from Allen. On a side note, I'm really sick of people using Goff and Trubisky to claim Allen/the offense's future is bright. Those guys turned it around because Jeff Fisher and John Fox were canned and replaced with Sean McVay and Matt Nagy. Which group does our coaching staff resemble more?

The difference is that the others look like (bad) NFL teams, whereas over half the time, we look like a college team. They have bad offenses. We have maybe the worst offense of all time. It's easy for me to imagine a normal bad offense jumping 10+ spots the following year just from new personnel and growth of young players. Make it 15-20 if the team also upgrades the coaching. But it's hard for me to imagine going from worst ever to anything more than bottom 5 next year. I have no problem with the Bills' record. I have a problem with how they've gotten that record. Ayjent's post above does a good job breaking down a lot of the issues on the offensive side of the ball. I don't trust that the same folks who thought we'd be okay starting Peterman until Allen was ready will be able to turn around the offense. Even if our QB coach is replaced, the fact that a WR coach was hired for that job in the first place is alarming. Will the offense be better next year? Yeah, probably. It's really hard to be historically bad. Just regression to the mean should result in a big improvement, albeit still at a bottom 5 level. But what evidence do we have that this FO/coaching staff will ever do better than that?