Cash

Good post! It seems like you’re convinced we’ll sign a vet after June 1st. I tend to agree, but I have more doubt. After listening to Beane’s press conference, specifically when he was asked about June 1 money, he went into a lot of specifics. The overall gist was that we have less $$$ than it looks (so don’t get your hopes up). My personal takeaways: -Beane definitely wants to sign more Floyd-types, but there’s only so much he can do, and even less that he’s willing to do -He might be worried that we’ll only have the budget for 1 guy. I doubt he’s willing to go heavy into void years for multiple guys -That 1 guy might wind up a pass rusher I still think it’s most likely that they make a real effort to sign Beckham, and maybe sign a Chark/Gallup/Thomas if they don’t get Beckham. But it wouldn’t shock me if they decide that those last 3 aren’t a significant upgrade over the guys they already have.

No.

I’m not sure we disagree about anything at this point, except just what we consider the word “need” to mean. I won’t be surprised (or mind) if the Bills draft a LB today, and they’ll get at least 1-2 in UDFA as well. And agreed, they do need to add some for camp.

We’ve got at least 5 on the roster currently. We usually carry 5 actual LBs and a LBINO who’s there for special teams.

Honest question: how many do you think we need? We had 4 LBs hurt at the same time last year. Can any NFL team lose their top 4 at one position group and still field a good group?

Starters: Bernard, Milano. One was awesome last year, the other is an All-Pro Reserves: -Williams. I expect him to be much better mentally in year 2. Looked very promising physically as a rookie -Spector. Looked pretty good in spot starting duty when forced in. Should still be improving in year 3 -That vet we signed -Someone I’m forgetting? Your stance isn’t at all self-evident to me, guy.

How do you figure LB is a need?

FWIW, about half of his highlights on ABC were of him playing 1-technique. Seemed like a Harrison Phillips type, and I mean that as a compliment.

Is Coleman physical enough to not get destroyed by playoff-style press coverage? And win on contested catches? If so, this was a great pick.

Agree Beane will be trading up at some point, quite possibly tonight. Could be from 60 (if we don’t go WR at 33, I’d almost bank on this). Could be from 95. Maybe even trade up from the 4th into the end of the 3rd? I don’t know the comp values well enough to say if that’s plausible; it might not be. Based on his presser, I think Beane is going to seriously listen to offers for 33. But I also think he won’t take any unless it’s a significant overpay. That’s what I hope, at least. I think it’s like, “I’ve had enough of this, thanks. I’m good.”

Here's Beane's quote: "Did not try to move up. We did not. And we didn't have any calls of people saying 'do you want?'... We were checking the whole night, you know, around our area and back." I note that to Beane, there's a distinction between "trying to move up" and "checking". He very well may have had calls with teams in the top 10 (likely pre-draft) that got into hypotheticals, but he's saying he never made anyone an offer, not got a call from a team in front of us asking us to make an offer. Which makes sense if you believe the pre-draft rumors that most teams were looking to move up, not down. I think Beane's decision tree entering last night was something like: Draft a player with a 1st-round grade at 28 Small move-up (not including 60) to draft a player with a 1st-round grade Trade down, but not lower than the 35-40 range or so Draft a player with a 2nd-round grade at 28 Maybe there's another one in there that's like, "If Rome Odunze falls into the teens, put #60 on the table to move up for him," but it's hard to say since he was off the board at 9. I feel fairly confident they weren't super interested in Brian Thomas Jr, because it probably wouldn't have been cost-prohibitive to move up for him as it played out.

Oof, yeah I’d be pretty upset at that draft.

Just watched the presser. My two cents: -“I haven’t called them” has an implicit part: “…about moving into the top 10.” But he also suggested that he will be calling them next week. So what does that tell us? Not much. My guess is that if he thinks all of the top 3 can have a Jamarr Chase like impact as a rookie, Beane will be willing to pay the steep price to move up for whichever one goes third - ESPECIALLY if that guy drops out of the top 10. I agree with others that part of what he’s doing here is managing fan/media expectations. I doubt that Beane thinks we’re truly “1 player away” right now. So I don’t think he’ll do a full mortgage type deal to get up to 7 or 8. -A smaller move up for BT Jr wouldn’t be surprising, but I don’t expect it. Obviously depends on their grades. If he’s way above the rest of Tier 2, that obviously makes a difference. I think it’s more likely that they move up 1-3 spots for a Tier 2 guy they like significantly more than the rest of the pack. No idea who that would be. -Conversely, if they have similar grades for all the Tier 2 guys, a trade back would make a lot of sense. Probably for a mid-high 2 and a 3. I don’t expect this. The way Beane was talking about what they look for in WRs, I thinks they’ll have probably 1-2 guys in a Tier that they like way better than the rest of that Tier. -Agree with Gunner that they’re happy with outside CB in terms of high picks. I don’t see them drafting one before the 4th. -I continue to think that Beane doesn’t go into the draft with a specific plan. Meaning like, “I’m trading up for Nabors, then taking a safety with my next pick, then fill holes with my remaining picks.” I do think he goes in with preference, and with various possibilities outlined in advance. But the story is written real-time during the draft, so he doesn’t try to go in with a pre-written story. It’s more of an improv exercise than a writing exercise, if that makes sense. If I’m right, then even Beane doesn’t know what he’s going to do yet. And as a side note, I think this is the right way to approach the draft.

I said trade back, but if there's no reasonable offers to do so, I'd pick Leggette.

I was going to say Allen should count double. BW, I mostly agree with your list. A few thoughts to add: Von Miller was supposed to be one of them on defense. It was looking good until he got hurt. There's still a chance (I'd say about 5%) that he gives us some level of Freakazoid play in 2024. Rousseau has the talent to get there, but hasn't shown it over the course of a full season yet. Two years ago, he was on pace for like 15 sacks or something when he got hurt. Last year, he spent a ton of time at RE, and was significantly less effective there than at LE. There's still hope, but it would be wishful thinking to include him on the freakazoid list.

Yeah, I watch a lot of Saints games, and Harty looked a LOT faster when he played for the Saints. I think some of it was down to utilization in the offense (Daboll was MUCH better at using McKenzie-type guys than Dorsey), but I also think that Harty lost a step or two right before we signed him. Still, that punt return was awesome.

Usually the reason is that they’re worried about someone else trading up in front of them. I’ve seen behind the scenes war room videos where the Bills start calling teams with a given trade offer, then keep offering the same package to every ensuing team after being turned down. I.e., pick 20 says no, so they offer it to 21, then 22, etc, until someone at like 24 or 25 says yes. If that scenario was reversed, the Bills could find themselves the first or second team called, and just say yes.

At least a full year - he'll be in the honeymoon phase for a while.

FWIW, I was fully on board with those trades at the time, even though I was bummed to lose Darby. Thought we got a good haul for both, and didn’t think Watkins would be much of a loss. (He wasn’t.) I wasn’t happy about the Dareus trade, but that one was mostly wishful thinking on my part. Dareus was so good until he lost his motivation. As for this trade? I’m not raging out or crying doom & gloom, but I’m not happy either. Just feels like we’re gonna be told that a 2nd next year is just as good as a 1st, when the Bills trade way up to get a guy who’s not as good as Diggs in 2024. Now, if we keep next year’s #1 and hit on our top WR pick anyway? That’ll change my tune a bit. Also if Diggs does nothing in Houston, that would recalibrate this trade for me.

Agree. The more I think about it, the more I think Diggs was priced to move, and that the FO thinks there’s at least some addition by subtraction in moving him. Will it be enough? Time will tell.

So close, OP! Great tip that would've paid off if you put some money on Houston. I'm shocked personally, but much less so than I would've been without this post. When the odds move that much, someone knows something that the public doesn't.

Oof. In a vaccuum, I'm okay with trading Diggs, but I was hoping for a better haul than this. A second rounder a full year away, plus we're throwing in late picks? Yikes. Maybe Diggs really is cooked at this point if the Bills are willing to sell for that price. Because now you're not just replacing Davis in the draft, you're replacing Diggs as well. We'd better not sell off next year's #1 to move up for a WR. This could be a down year (so could any year, if Allen gets hurt) and our 2025 #1 could be in the teens instead of the twenties.

Whitner was 1.) overdrafted - would’ve been a good use of a second rounder, but at 8th overall, a safety needs to be a difference maker on the level of Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott, and 2.) NOT Haloti Ngata, who was right there and such an obvious pick

Given that it came from Warren Sharp, I wouldn’t be shocked if he took Legette’s YPPR against man coverage and compared it to everyone else’s overall YPPR, or otherwise was shady statistically. Dude is either a scam artist or stupid.

Big time NO from me. Sammy Watkins trade 2.0.