Cash
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On second thought, I'd remove RB from P9. Too injury-prone a position to get complacent, plus late-round gems are often found at RB.
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Where's QB? I would put QB at P1, but our O-line is so bad, I'll go with:
P1 = None
P2 = QB, OT
P3 = LB, DT
P4 = TE, DE, OG
P9 = FS, SS, RB
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There's a few things at work here. First off, it really doesn't matter what anyone thinks because Jauron has already stated that Trent is still too shaken up to play this week. So, in that sense, there is no debate.
Second, stats being what they are, all any one has to do is watch the last first 5 games of this season. Trent played progressively worse in each of those games. It got so bad that he couldn't muster more than 1 FG against the Browns - at home. Now, say what you want about stats or throws or arm strength or anything. But your QB has to be a leader and lead his team to more than 3 points against that Browns team. All else is fluff to a certain extent.
C. I'm still a little unclear as to what we've classified as a long ball here, but what's even more important that the depth of the pass is when the pass is thrown. When it's 3rd and long, in the 4th quarter, and you're behind; you do not throw check offs to a RB. Period. We've all seen Trent's propensity to do exactly that.
3C. In reference to the last statement, many of us have pondered... is Trent being coached to throw the dump offs or are the WRs just not open down field. Well, Fitzy, has shown that WRs sare indeed open and Jauron doesn't insist that the ball be checked down at all costs. For proof that Trent checks down more than Fitzy, I prefer to look at the number of RB recpetions:
Week 1 - FJ (5)
Week 2 - FJ (6)
Week 3 - FJ (5)
Week 4 - ML (5); FJ (3)
Week 5 - ML (6); FJ (2)
Week 6 - ML (2); CM (2)
Week 7 - ML (1)
Seems, easy to me to conclude that the RBs are catching more balls out of the backfield with Trent in the game than with Fitzy in the game.
Fifthly, I forgot what I was talking about after looking up those stats. Suffice it to say, I think there's more to it than just the number of "long passes" the QB makes. I think we have to consider the intermediate routes, the timing of the various passes, and the overall offensive production - 20 points (yesterday) is better than 3 points (against the Browns).
So, I agree with you Simon to a point, but I just think its more to it than just the number of deep passes that makes many posters want to see Fitzy starting.
http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/index.php?...t&p=1615656
Cliff's Notes version:
Edwards has thrown just under half his passes at WRs, with about a quarter each going towards RBs and TEs.
Fitzpatrick has targeted over 80% of his passes at WRs, with about 12% going at RBs and about 6% going at TEs.
No guarantee that Fitz's numbers continue at this pace, but so far, the difference is extreme.
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Awww, that's horrible math frog, my point is TE and Fitz are hitting their WR's at almost the same rate.
Fitz 7.5 receptions to a WR per game
TE 7.8 receptions to a WR per game
Better to look at targets, not completions. That helps account for drops and both QBs' poor accuracy, and just distill it down to decision-making. Luckily, espn.com's new box scores have targets in them, so it's pretty easy to add them up. For the Jets game, I went through the play-by-play and just counted a target every time it said a pass was intended for whoever. I probably wound up being off by 1 or 2, but my count should be close enough for these purposes. Anyway, I figured out the percentage of targets by WR, RB, and TE. It's not a perfect methodology, because a couple of the RB passes weren't checkdowns (exactly two, if I remember correctly), and some of the WR passes really were checkdowns (e.g., WR screens, TO caught a 6 yard hitch on 3rd and 18 in the Jets game, etc.). But it's still pretty good, and I doubt any of us has the time to go through every game and chart every pass play. So here goes.
For the year, Edwards' percentages of targets are as follows:
WR - 49.0%
RB - 27.8%
TE - 23.2%
I was honestly surprised to see how high WR was. Here's Fitzpatrick's percentages:
WR - 81.3%
RB - 12.5%
TE - 6.3%
Wowsers. Of course, Fitzpatrick's played less than two full games, so he doesn't have much of a sample size, so take this with a grain of salt. But I think the trend will continue, even if it doesn't stay quite this pronounced. And even if it doesn't, the point remains: So far, Fitzpatrick has definitely thrown to his WRs more than Edwards did. Not with great success, which is why Fitzpatrick is a backup. He's playing the right way; he's just not good enough to execute at a high level. Captain Checkdown has NOT been playing the right way, and I tend to doubt that he could pull it off if he tried.
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Yeah, it's not really about the "deep ball". It's about making plays that count when it matters. Like throwing the ball past the 1st down sticks on third down.
Example: It's 3rd and 7 with about 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. 17 - 9 Buffalo. The Bills need this first down to keep the clock moving and get deeper into field goal range. A first down here cements the win as it puts the Bills two scores ahead and runs precious time off the click.
Fitz? He needles a pass into Reed for eight yards and a critical first down.
Edwards? Of course, it's conjecture on my part. But my guess is that Reed doesn't look "open" when he glances at him, and he checks down to Lynch or Jackson, who is tackled short of the first down. Probably we still get the FG, as we were inside the 20, but the first down enabled us to burn over half the remaining game time down.
This is critical stuff on a team that plays to the wire every week, and we need a QB with the courage to get the job done.
Precisely. Only Al Davis thinks that you can build a successful NFL offense around the deep ball. Folks, there's a lot of different passes that fall somewhere between Checkdown and Deep Ball. Edwards' problem is that he mostly just sticks to the extremes, and when he does throw a deep ball, it's usually so close to the sideline that the receiver has to go out of bounds as he's catching it, and gets no RAC.
Another good example from yesterday's game was on the 3rd-and-12 from our own red zone. Fitzpatrick dropped back, was pressured almost immediately, started scrambling around in the pocket to buy some time, clearly looked to his left where he had a RB for a checkdown, then looked back upfield and hurled a pass as he was hit. It looked dangerous as he threw it, and it did sail on him a little bit, but it ultimately went to an open TO, who made the jumping catch and held on to it. I have no doubt whatsoever that Edwards throws that checkdown that Fitzpatrick passed up. How can I be so sure? Because I've been watching Edwards play all year.
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Delhomme and Derek Anderson have both been terrible all year. Sanchez has looked good in a couple games, though.
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He's one of my IDP guys in FF for a reason....
Dropped him for Poz right before the Jets game. So far, so good.
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The more i see him play, the more convinced I am that he is going to blow balls. And if he plays in the weather in Buffalo, he will blow elephant balls.
Who was the last star NFL QB who came from a super-loaded football factory? Carson Palmer, I think. Who before that? I have no idea. McCoy strikes me as a potential bust, especially in Buffalo, where he doesn't have the arm strength to cut down the wind. Even though he's a massive d-bag, I'm hoping we get Jimmy Clausen. From what I've seen this year, he looks like the real deal. And unlike Bradford and Pike, he actually takes snaps under center.
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This is my first post here. I usually post on the other message board. I'm not sure what to think about Fitzpatrick at the moment. The guy is 26 years old with only 15 starts. Edwards has around 29 starts I think. So there is still some upside. If he could just work on his accuracy he could be a good QB. When I saw him catch the Jets with too many men on the field with a quick snap I thought I was watching Manning. He is also willing to throw into double coverage. There was an article saying how he was changing to plays that wasn't even in the gameplan. That is amazing seeing as how this is his first year with the team and Edwards 3rd year with the team. Shouldn't Edwards do that? Anyways I don't know what to think because he is still young. Some people act like he has been in this league for 10+ years and hasn't done a thing. Some times all it takes is luck to find that QB. Fitz looks like he wants to win, and with him in the game the energy of the offense was different with him in.
I remember that play. It was utterly stunning. Was that the first time in the Jauron Era (or Meathead or Gregggg Eras, for that matter) that we picked up a first down by outfoxing the other team?
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What's nice about the 4pm start is that by the time the Bills kick off, I'm already half in the bag from the 1 o'clock games. It tends to ease the pain.
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The play of our D-line, particularly the white guys. (I expected good things out of Stroud, and Maybin has done nothing of note. Spencer Johnson and John McCargo are who we thought they were.)
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Does this mean we'd have to keep the 4-3 Tampa 2 defense? No thanks, hire someone who will bring a 3-4 please.
I'd prefer to stick with a 4-3, but just stock it with players who are both big and fast (i.e., good), instead of trying to find the smallest possible guys to play every position.
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I have no problem what so ever with sports writers making predictions. It's the nature of this particular prediction and the fact that he decided that it was pertanent enough to dedicate an article to it that bothers me. Just seems like there are many more stories going on in the divison currently (i.e. Jenkins' injury, Fitzpatrick starting, Henne making his third career start, the Pats* offensive display last week, Sanchez' struggles, etc) that are more worthwhile to write about. Rather than trying to decide whether the Bills are going to get gashed for 240+ yards a game for the rest of the year to set a record. JMHO.
Sanchez's struggles: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/tag/_/name/mark-sanchez
Two long pieces already this week.
Jenkins' injury: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/i...-void-in-jets-d
Henne's third career start? Seriously? What is there to write about that wasn't covered before the first two?
Tom Terrific: Thankfully, Tim has not dedicated any full-length posts to this yet this week. I for one am glad.
Fitzpatrick starting: I'd expect Tim to wait until later in the week, when it's more definitive that Fitzpatrick actually will start. Also, the Buffalo News just did two articles on this topic, so it's not like there's a lot of fresh ground to cover.
My only complaint with this post is that Tim forgot to tag it "Buffalo Bills." I haven't seen much out there talking about how bad our run D has been, and it was nice to see it put in a historical perspective. Also, there are no predictions in the post, just speculations.
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I want to just give it to the hot hand.
+1. Both guys are really good, to the point where whoever's more effective on a given day is the guy who should get more work. I think Marshawn's a little better overall, but at this stage of their careers, the gap is miniscule.
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If you don't count the two times I cheated on my girlfriend, I've been a great boyfriend.
Also, could we get a math tutor in here for Poz? 60+71 = 131. That is not "the vast majority" of 318.
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Watch this video: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...ones-highlights
At 0:15 watch Whitner only. Unblocked, runs up to the line of scrimmage and reacts late allowing Jones to breeze past him for 64 yards.
At 0:55 again watch Whitner. Once again he's unblocked and gets caught running up to the line of scrimmage in over pursuit. Once again Thomas Jones blasts past him for 71 yards. Byrd took a bad angle on this one also, but the first issue there was Whitner.
I see this every week with Whitner. Are the coaches not giving him an earful on this pathetic run support???
Both of those runs were abject failures by the LBs and safeties. Overpursuit by the LBs allowed Jones to get into the secondary, and terrible play by both safeties allowed Jones to go real long.
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Maybe so, but the toss to Evans that was overturned was deep(ish) and exactly where it needed to be. I don't see TE even attempting that throw, much less making one that good.
Nah, that's the only non-short throw that Trentative is willing to make -- long pass down the sideline, usually so close to being out of bounds that the received goes out right as he catches it.
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When they signed him (which some folks saw as just Ralph's cheap-o solution) it sounded like a very positive move. I like that they raided the practice squad of a team with a pretty good OL.
Meredith had like 30 starts @ South Carolina, under pro offense of Spurrier, so I was looking forward to seeing Jamon play.
Not hearing his name called for a penalty was quite a bonus!
Jonathan Scott seemed fairly useless in that spot, so I was very pleased with Meredith today.
You realize he was on Green Bay's practice squad, right? The team that's given up the most sacks in the NFL, including five yesterday to awful Detroit?
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Talk to me about Trent when he starts averaging over 10 yards per completion.
By the way, 10 yards per *attempt* is really good.
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It's always nice to get a win. And beating any legit NFL team on the road is sweet. That doesn't mean that this team isn't horrible, though.
But we might as well savor this win for the rest of the week, as there won't be many to savor this year.
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I don't know. I just think plays respect the hell out of Jauron. It's becoming clear that the Jags don't respect Del Rio. Also to a man, they have come out and said it's the players not executing.
Again, it's always blame the coaches. i will never say Jauron is a great coach. But in his specialty, defense, we have been great in except on game. Jauron can't make our QB throw the ball. The players, one in particular, aren't getting the job done. But it's not a coincidence that no player ever criticizes Jauron. He is one of the most respected coaches in football.
Reality says hi. Bills' D ranks:
19th in yards/game
20th in points/game
26th in first downs/game
20th (tied) in 3rd down percentage
17th (tied) in 4th down percentage
6th (tied) in most penalties
2nd in most penalty yards
29th in yards per run
29th in rushing yards/game
Just because the D isn't *as* bad as the O doesn't mean that the D is any good. It's also quite bad.
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This should help reduce the number of penalties. Might also improve cohesion between QB & receivers, in the sense that they're more likely to be on the same page. Overall, the offense will likely continue to stink (bad QB + bad O-line = bad offense, regardless of scheme), but if this is true, it is a positive move.
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With Poz back in the lineup, this game will once again be up to our offense to win. Our defense will give them three solid quarters if we get our SS and MLB back this week.
So, Bills fans, expect a loss. This defense won't win the game themselves, and the offense sure as **** won't do their part, so expect three very solid quarters from the defense followed by an offensive deluge for the New York Jets in the fourth, none of the points/scores matched by Buffalo.
QFT
Edwards fans are sounding desperate for Fitzy to fail
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
How much more evidence do you need? Edwards is a terrible quarterback. If he was capable of being a good quarterback, he'd have shown signs of it by now.
Offseason need #1 is a starting QB. I'll admit I was wrong about Fitzpatrick: I thought he was a total wasted signing, but after 2 games, I think he's more or less an okay backup. Now we just need a good starter and a good O-line for him to play behind.