Cash

Less than entering the 13 seconds game, but more than last year. I had hope last year but really just hopium - our defense was so banged up. It was hard to imagine Andy Reid would lose to a defense called by AJ Klein. But still - that’s why they play the games. And I know I felt good about the game being in Orchard Park for once. Definitely hurt, losing at home. This year, even with the injuries yesterday, we’re much closer to our full squad. And this year’s TEAM feels greater than the sum of its parts, whereas last year’s did not. With that said, my initial thought once my thoughts turned to next week was that the Chiefs would win yet another BS game. I think because they’ll have the revenge factor like we did against the Ravens, and they’ll be at home this time. We’ll see if my feeling changes as the week goes on.

Burleson also mentioned this in the postgame show.

Great point. The historical database was highly self-selected: Non-desperation 2pt and 4th down attempts were heavily weighted towards teams with elite QBs, elite offenses, and significant mismatches in whichever game. That’s not exactly translatable to the NFL as a whole. (But it is translatable to a Josh Allen-led offense, which is why I’m glad McD has gotten a let better about going for it more.)

As they lined up for the 2 pointer, I say out loud, “No way we stop this.” I was stunned when Andrew’s dropped it… But I was expecting Allen to lead us down the field for a game winning score. Not counting on it (I’m a Bills fan), but I thought we were going to win despite the Ravens tying it up. I had to give a big presentation to some higher ups at work last week. Other than loudly crapping my pants in the first 5 minutes, I thought I did a great job! I assume they’re working on the promotion paperwork now.

First sentence: major exception for Portnoy, who is about as far from a football mind as it gets. The rest: Yes! Everyone please keep counting us out. Get that line up to Chiefs minus a touchdown. Start breaking down Chiefs Super Bowl hypotheticals on the talking head shows. I want MAXIMUM disrespect for the Bills this week. Ravens are definitely not the first team to lose in the playoffs with 3 turnovers!

Eh, I don’t think that’s fair accounting. -Lamar’s INT was unforced for sure, but his fumble was under huge duress. Yes he dropped the ball but that probably doesn’t happen without a Bill spinning him around. -Textbook DPI was missed on a Shakir crosser on 3rd down. Hand around the waist, turned the receiver and slowed him down; no call. -Oliver was held very clearly at least twice that was uncalled (to be fair, one of them was on a sack and we would’ve declined it). -Broadcast replayed a textbook helmet to helmet shot on Allen by Humphrey that wasn’t called. I'm sure there’s more (both for and against us), and I don’t have the inclination to go through and total everything up. Bottom line is that we won the game, and we “deserved” to win just as much as any winner in any close game. GO BILLS!

Big agree. Do a deep dive and I’m pretty sure every single Super Bowl champion has a few crucial bits of luck go their way. We’ve generally had bad luck in recent history. If this is the year the coin flips go our way, great!

That's one of the things that’s bothered me about the analytics-driven insistence to go for it more: they’re assuming a fixed rate of 2pt success. But historically, teams were very rarely going for 2, and typically had either one or two “2 point plays” in their game plan for a given week. Basically your best play that you think will get you those few yards if your guys don’t screw up. And if you don’t go for 2 that game (or don’t need to use it for a crucial 4th and short), you keep that 2pt play in reserve for next week, so that teams don’t have tape on it. There’s no way that success rate under those conditions is sustainable with heavy increases in attempts. NOTE: That’s not to say that teams were getting it right in the past. The analytics movement has correctly highlighted that coaches were being too conservative in both 2 pointers and especially 4th down decisions. My point is that the attempts to quantify the optimal decisions are based on incorrect assumptions, and many of the people using these models appear to have no ability to question their model’s assumptions, and never acknowledge the error inherent to all modeling. In short, they have a point but they take it too far.

Yeah, still an egregious drop, especially considering how good Mandrews is, but the throw could’ve been significantly better.

New Orleans worries me the most. I’m friends with a bunch of Saints fans, and most of them have been clamoring for Brady. Ownership cares a lot about selling tickets and knows that Brady’s Saints and LSU ties will make him a popular hire. My hope is that Brady pulls a Ben Johnson and waits it out. (Even if he wants the Saints job, there’s a good chance it’ll come available again in 2-3 years, and by then they’ll be in a better cap situation.)

Great writeup! I had a tinge of nerves entering last week, and the quick TD didn’t help that. But even so, I wouldn’t say I was ever worried during the game. Going in, it was pretty clear that the Bills were the better team, and that was proven in how the game played out. The better team doesn’t win every game, but as Shaw points out - it’s pretty rare for good teams to beat great teams in the playoffs. This week, it isn’t clear going in who the better team is. We have the better record, beat both 1 seeds, and are at home. The Ravens whipped us head to head, excelled against a bunch of playoff teams in a tough regular season, and on paper, have the better talent (see All-Pro and Pro Bowl teams). Before the season, I said we were the best team in the division, and that we’d have a puncher’s chance in the playoffs. I still mostly agree with that. I won’t count us out in any game where Josh Allen is healthy, but this game (and any others, should we advance) is a fundamentally different challenge than the Broncos.

Yeah, combined with Josh’s presser I think it was a combo apology/admonishment. Basically “I didn’t flag you for Unsportsmanlike Conduct because I acknowledge it was a miss call, but I’m not going to cut you that slack again.”

Plus a great dynamic punt return! (And no mistakes on his other PR attempts)

Book your flights for SF now - 2025 Super Bowl here we come! Seriously though, Martin's had a really nice bounceback year this year, but he's getting pretty long in the tooth. Having Camarda in camp next year is a great idea.

…and mostly terrible in the playoffs. Nothing would surprise me in this game - I could see a blowout by either team, or an absolute nail-biter. For the record, I’ll predict that Lamar plays at least okay, and the Ravens win. (Which would mean we’re REALLY hoping he lays another playoff egg the following week.) I don’t think the Steelers can win without a subpar game from Lamar.