Midwest

I would suggest that we draft Lynch at twelve, personally. I love his vision, his toughness and size in between the tackles to as well as his quickness around the corner, speed that makes him an authentic homerun threat who can outrun DB's, his competent hands as a receiver, and the exuberance and extrovertedness that make the linemen love to block for him. But if my feelings about the Cal running back aren't shared, I would rather trade down, like you recommended. Thanks for your thoughts, fellas!

No replies whatsoever?

I was reading the thread that discusses if the Bills would possibly pass on Peterson if he were there at twelve in favor of Posluszny, and I noticed that the discussion then degenerated into a Peterson vs. Willis argument. First of all, I've heard no rebuttals that suggest that quite possibly Willis won't even be there. He and Okoye are two of the exponential risers in the draft and San Francisco's coaches worked with him at the Senior Bowl and allegedly became enamored with him (not to mention that San Francisco's current inside linebackers in their 3-4 are Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich). Regardless, even if San Francisco chose Adam Carriker, there was a report on NFL Sirius Radio (I don't know if it has legitimacy) that said that the Lions, when/if they are able to trade down, would take Willis which whatever pick they would end up with; the report actually linked the Falcons, so the Lions, who are very desperate for a MLB, and who missed out on Fletcher in the off-season and started Paris Lenon (who?) last year, would take Willis at #8. And that isn't too high for him: he was not only the Butkus winner and 1st-team All-American last year; we all know his exceptional Combine and even better pro-day. I've also heard that Minnesota and Miami have so interest, for whatever that's worth as well. I think that realistically the question for us at #12 comes down to Lynch or Posluszny (or Peterson; believe it or not, I think that Peterson could stand as good of a chance of falling to our pick as Willis or Okoye- Okoye has too many potential suitors: Washington, Atlanta, Miami, and Houston. But realistically, none of them fall). I hope that we would choose Lynch in such a scenario for the superior value he offers. I also believe that the separation between Peterson and Lynch and the other running backs (Antonio Pittman, Kenny Irons, Tony Hunt, Chris Henry, etc., etc.) is more substantial than the separation between Posluszny, Timmons, and Beason and the other outside linebackers (Justin Durant, Stewart Bradley, Tim Shaw, Rufus Alexander, etc., etc.).

I'm not saying that Carolina, Pittsburgh, or Jacksonville will take him. I am just saying that the groundwork for the rationale is in place because he's a possibility for these respective teams For example, I personally think that Carolina would take Greg Olsen or Reggie Nelson before Posluszny, but his name is out there nonetheless as a conceivability.

With ongoing discussions and the likelihood of a trade of Spiikes, I am afraid that the Bills, whom if last year is any indication will take a player who hasn't been on the fans' radar or not as substantially so, will draft Pos; Posluszny is considered a good fit at strong-side linebacker, which would be his position on the Bills and the position from which Spikes would be departing. I'm not a crackpot and I REALLY, genuinely fear this. The reason that I am afraid has less to do with Posluszny's value as a prospective NFL linebacker (I think he could be pretty good; at least solid) as it does at his value as a draft pick at pick #12. The justification for Posluszny at #12 is already partially being articulated- for what it's worth, there have been more and more suggestions around the league that have him going fourteenth to Carolina (serious linebacker needs before they lost SLB, Chris Draft), and fifteenth to Pittsburgh. In Pittsburgh, Posluszny would be a replacement for Porter but not the pass-rushing threat that Joey was; they're slowly transitioning to a more Mike Tomlin-favored Cover 2 scheme- that's why I'm surprised many believe, mistakenly so, IMO, that pass-rushing threats like Jarvis Moss will go to the Steelers at #15. I doubt they're looking for a prototype of the player they released (if was about more than money or decreasing production out of Porter that they released him). If the Steelers go linebacker, I think that a player like Pos, a better run-stuffer than pass-rusher, will be the sort of player they seek. Jacksonville at seventeenth is also mentioned as a possible destination for Pos, and I could see that happening as well. If not them, then perhaps #20 to the Giants. Then he'd fall to New England at #24, likely. Of course, Posluszny looks better and better the further and further you go down the 1st-round because the Scouts' grades for him (which are not at all identical to individual teams' grades for anyone) suggest that he would be a very significant reach at #12, even with the Whitner-esque rationale provided that the teams not far below us may want him, too. And keep in mind that there is a VERY good chance that Okoye and Willis will not be options; they're two of the hottest and expotential risers in the draft. No, players more likely to fall include someone like Jamaal Anderson, whose combine didn't enhance his status (Levi Brown won't fall out of the top-ten because of he's a projected left tackle- a greater priority usually). I could see this scenario playing out (negating trade possibilities or roster additions- like Carr to Oakland): 1. Oakland- QB JaMarcus Russell 2. Detroit- OT Joe Thomas 3. Cleveland- QB Brady Quinn 4. Tampa Bay- WR Calvin Johnson 5. Arizona- DE Gaines Adams 6. Washington- DT Amobi Okoye 7. Minnesota- RB Adrian Peterson 8. Atlanta- FS Laron Landry 9. Miami- OT Levi Brown 10. Houston- DT Alan Branch 11. San Francisco- MLB Patrick Willis 12. Buffalo- OLB Paul Posluszny

I agree that Washington is the key. I think the players that end up falling out of the top eleven are players that we wouldn't draft, anyway: OT Levi Brown and WR Ted Ginn Jr. So for us at #12, it'll either be Lynch or trading down; I think CB would be too high here. It is a first-day need, but I think we either wait until the second to see if there is great value to be had (Daymeion Hughes? Marcus McCauley?), or more likely take a LB in the second (if we take Lynch in the first) and wait until the third for a CB; someone like Tanard Jackson with our first third, if he falls, or C.J. Gaddis of Clemson with our second third, would be quality additions.

Thanks for the responses from all of you, which got progressively more complimentary, LOL. Washington is apparently very interested in Okoye (it could be a bluff, but Washington's traditionally not been as adept at bluffing as other teams; when they want a player, they WANT a player). If they take Okoye, that has a two-fold effect: first of all, it eliminates Okoye as an option for Buffalo and second of all, it means teams like Houston, Miami, and San Francisco, who would consider Okoye, will look elsewhere; the most damaging effect for that concerning us is if San Francisco takes Patrick Willis at #11; Derek Smith in their improved and revamped defense, just doesn't seem to be cutting it at MLB. And some think the top eleven is too high for Ted Ginn Jr., so we'll have to see. Secondly, about Marshawn Lynch, he was not only exonerated for "insufficient evidence," which could still indicate his guilt but just not enough evidence to pursue it in court. No, the testimony by his ex-girlfriend was chocked full of inconsistencies, to the point that it looks much more compellingly that she made it up than that anything happened. So that should not be greatly held against him. I've also listened to him in interviews. Some may be bothered by his "grill," and some may think he's not as "polished" as a Patrick Willis or Amobi Okoye (not that I believe they'll last to #12, anyway) whatever "polished" means, anyway. But Lynch does seem like a good guy who's done a heck of a job transcending his circumstances of growing up poor in gang-ridden, inner-city Oakland. He also seems much more extroverted than McGahee ever was, which hopefully translates into him being eager to please as a RB for the Buffalo Bills. And he would have an opportunity to be a great one; this guy has all the skills, there are few that doubt that.

What do you think? Does this bear anything to reality? 1. Oakland- QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU) 2. Detroit- WR Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech)- Matt Millen defies his critics again and Mike Williams may be a cap casuality in June. 3. Cleveland- QB Brady Quinn (Notre Dame) 4. Tampa Bay- DE Gaines Adams (Clemson)- They addressed LT with Petitgout and now look to replenish at DE (Rice aging; Dewayne White left via FA). 5. Arizona- OT Joe Thomas (Wisconsin) 6. Washington- DT Amobi Okoye (Louisville)- If they're already high on him, nothing they'll learn from here on out will dissuade them. 7. Minnesota- RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma)- Chester Taylor, no Chester Taylor- Peterson offers too much value here. 8. Houston- FS Laron Landry (LSU) 9. Miami- DT Alan Branch (Michigan) 10. Atlanta- DE Jamaal Anderson (Arkansas)- Kerney opted out of his contract and headed for Seattle, and Abraham is perennially injured, it seems. 11. San Francisco- MLB Patrick Willis (Ole Miss)- They'll continue to address WR in the coming rounds, but Mike Nolan wants to solidy the middle of that defense. 12. Buffalo- Marshawn Lynch (California)- Trading down is an option, but with Willis gone, running back by committee may eventually give way to the dynamic and elusive Lynch being a 315-carry back by 2008 for Buffalo. 13. St. Louis- CB Leon Hall (Michigan)- Would love to go DT, but no other DT is worthy of #13 with Okoye and Branch both gone. 14. Carolina- OT Levi Brown (Carolina) 15. Pittsburgh- LB Paul Posluszny (Penn State)- A surprise pick, but Posluszny may be a better fit to help against the run with the increased incorporation of Mike Tomlin's Cover 2 than a pure pass-rusher like Jarvis Moss or Lawrence Timmons; they could have kept Joey Porter if that was their intention. 16. Green Bay- TE Greg Olsen (Miami)- Somewhat crushed that Lynch is in Buffalo, they will trade to trade down to the bottom of the first. If they're unable to, Bubba Franks' replacement is found in the highest-rated TE in the 2007 draft: Greg Olsen. 17. Jacksonville- Reggie Nelson (Florida) 18. Cincinnati- CB Chris Houston (Arkansas) 19. Tennessee- WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Ohio State)- Talk about a glaring hole, though DE Charles Johnson will be considered because 24 sacks as a team is a very paltry number. 20. New York Giants- LB Lawrence Timmons (Florida State)- Poor combine or not for Timmons, the Giants have multiple needs but none worse than OLB's. 21. Denver- DE Adam Carriker (Nebraska)- They need an injection of youth upfront and they narrowly lost out on Kerney to the Seahawks. 22. Dallas- CB Aaron Ross (Texas) 23. Kansas City- WR Robert Meachem (Tennessee) 24. New England- DE/LB Jarvis Moss (Florida)- Good value here, and he'll transition to a 3/4 OLB for the Pats. Rosevelt Colvin is in the last year of his 5-year, $25 million dollar contract signed in 2003 and just like with Adalius Thomas, Belicheck will love Moss' versatility. 25. New York Jets- CB Darrelle Revis (Pittsburgh)- Justin Miller, while an exceptional returner, has been a disappointment as a starting CB. Revis just seems to have a knack for producing big plays despite top-end speed. 26. Philadelphia- WR Dewayne Bowe (LSU) 27. New Orleans- CB Marcus McCauley (Fresno State)- A bit of a reach after a poor 2006, but he has an excellent combination of size and speed and fills the Saints' biggest need. 28. New England- SS Michael Griffin (Texas)- Rodney Harrison turns 36 in December and has been battling injuries for the last few years. The Pats have his replacement, plus a better contingency plan if he gets hurt again. 29. Baltimore- OT Joe Staley (Central Michigan)- The Ravens need line help, but they may be fine with an interior of Jason Brown and Keydrick Vincent at guard. Staley can play LT if Odgen retires (admittedly a bigger responsibility than the Ravens want him to have immediately) but more likely replaces Tony Pathos at RT. 30. San Diego- WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina) 31. Chicago- G Ben Grubb (Auburn) 32. Indianapolis- OLB Jon Beason (Miami)- In the event that June ultimately doesn't re-sign, Beason would be very good value at pick #32 to fill in at the weak-side. He's not as good in coverage as June, but he has better size and may prove to be a better run-stuffer than what the Colts' are accustomed to from the "Mike" position.

I think it is fair to say that James Cameron and his assistant, TV director, Simcha Jacobovici, are making some convoluted connections that may not be warranted. Anyway, here's a link that goes into depth quite a bit about this. Still incendiary, it is more descriptive about the methods used to come to this "discovery." And it also suggests the reasons to be skeptical about it being true. It is a longer read, but FWIW, I think it's worth it. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17328478/site/newsweek/ In reference to those connections that are made that maybe shouldn't be that I mentioned, here are the main points (if you don't have time to read the article): the "Newsweek" article says that he is taking the "James box", which the Israel Antiquities Authority deemed to be invalid and actually forged (I don't think they'd be a capricious source to declare that) and 1). declaring that it is actually valid and 2). declaring that it was it was from the Talpiot cave (even though it wasn't found there by the achaelogists in 1980 and subsequently examined). That cave was the same place where the patina of Talpiot, or the ossuary that allegedly contained the bones of Jesus' family, was found. He then is comparing the DNA from both sources. Anyway, those jumps don't seem seamless to me, bias and all. And the article says that a positive match, even if Jacobovici says he has one, is still inconclusive; the materials being examined may be too crude, and the methods to examine them too convoluted, to ascertain a match.

You're right: $23 million - $8 million = $15 million/5 years = $3 million per year (assuming the salary isn't escalating) + $8 million for the signing bonus = $11 million against the self-imposed ceiling of $30 million. Sorry for the oversight, but thanks!

Yeah, we will find out soon enough... yet paradoxically not soon enough, too. I am ready to get this off-season started, but we're still twelve days away. Then again, once it begins, who knows? I might be hoping as strong that it hadn't started. But if what you are saying is what is true, then I am little relieved...

So you're saying that all the articles that state that 'cash to the cap' means we're going to only spend $30 million dollars (approximately the amount we're under the cap) have the figure wrong to begin with? I don't believe Levy explicitly said $30 million dollars, but I still need either corroboration that what you're saying is right and what everyone else is writing is wrong. Thanks for the reply.

If I have this correctly, Clements is essentially unrealistic. If he signed a contract with us: 7 years, $60 million with an $18 million signing bonus, even if the base salarly was escalating, his contract would be absorbing $20-22 our of self-imposed ceiling of $30 million. Considering that our needs are too numerous to tackle in the draft alone, we need to sign more than one or two players in FA. Unfortunately, this is tantamount to declaring that Clements is already on the next plane to the Jets, Browns, 49ers, Redskins, Rams, Saints, etc., etc. You know, for all of those who talk about building through the draft and not FA, isn't the key component that you retain the players that you drafted? Even if a CB in the Cover 2 is deemed expndable and interchangeable, I sure hope to God that there's no way in hades we lose Evans and Losman. I don't think we will lose them because the moment our team can't afford its (still early, but it's promising) franchise QB and its #1 stud receiver, is the moment we pack our things for Toronto or Los Angeles; the Buffalonian fans would rather have no team.

Hey, I have been lurking around here for a couple of weeks. I'm a member of the Bills' official site, but I have enjoyed peeking in around here for more knowledge than what actually is often offered there. Anyway, I have a couple of questions pertaining to Levy's press conference, the first of which is what this means regarding our draft selections. I don't believe our 'cash to the cap' philosophy affects draft picks. It doesn't, right? Last year, the 12th pick in the draft, Haloti Ngata, received $9.3 million in guaranteed money, and that figure should be expected to rise 10% to over $10 million one year later. So... my question is, does this further decimate the amount of money we're going to spend this off-season? $10 million, or the allocation of guaranteed money that we will have to give to whomever we draft at #12, would cut our total spending money and total spending power of $30 million by 1/3rd if the 'cash to the cap' philosophy is applicable towards our draft pick, too. Chris Brown, a beat writer for the Bills on their website (as if you didn't know that, LOL) said in a related article that the Bills' had already reserved their money for draft-picks, but it was written in an enigmatic and unclear way, so I'm confused. I don't think that the $30 million includes draft picks, but even assuming it doesn't, I'm still confused. My new understanding was this. First of all, the Bills' must spend at least $93 million (85% of the cap) to meet the minimum NFL salary cap threshold and receive the lum sum of $109; we are $30-33 million under the cap, and $14-17 million from the minimum cap. Secondly, the 'cap to the cash' of $30 million dollars is obviously self-imposed and I had thought before I came on here today that the figure doesn't combine base salaries with signing bonuses. In other words, if we're going to spend $30 million, that just includes signing bonuses and NOT annual, base salaries. And we wouldn't exceed the cap with those two totals because the NFL doesn't let entire signing bonuses be absorbed by teams in one year; by league rules, it always has to amortized, or spread out evenly. So our front-office may think they're paying $30 million in signing bonuses, but $30 million in signing bonuses won't be absorbed by the salary cap. League rules don't allow it. But to be superfluous, I read a post today by Kelly the Fair Dog, and he said that the $30 million self-imposed limits DOES includes signing bonus and salary. So if we signed Derrick Dockery (5 years, $23 million; $8 million dollar signing bonus), he would potentially count nearly $12.6 million against the our self-imposed cap, depending on whether or not the annual, base salaries would be escalating. There goes 42% of the money we're allowing ourselves to spend.