BillsVet

I sometimes think they're satisfied it's a winning strategy to have Josh with Brady's complementary football friendly offensive scheme. That, skilled talent is secondary and the QB + scheme will be their competitive advantage. And probably, that some guys are going to break out like Shakir and Kincaid. If it works, great. But if it doesn't...for all the talk about how Beane and McDermott are improving, that's a significant miscalculation. This is a matchup league and scheme can only get you so far. It's why I'd expect a trade by the deadline and Beane will then take a victory lap for making that move. Somewhat like trading for Benjamin in 2017...after botching the WR room that off-season.

This along with the other 100+ page thread is gonna be a back and forth of the raw emotion fans versus those who look for statistical evidence and/or understand human nature, i.e. what defenses will likely do. After Shakir went for 3-115-1 against NYJ in Week 11 he proceeded to go 11-143-1 in his next 5 games before 6-105-0 at Miami in the finale. That's 20-363-2 under Brady on 24 targets in 7 regular season games. Then 10-75-2 in the 2 playoff games on 12 targets for 30 catches on 36 targets totaling 438 yards and 4 TDs in 9 games. Can see a few scenarios happening...either he elevates his game as a good slot receiver and performs fairly decent against even better coverage. Or, they line him up outside and he struggles with less than ideal physical traits. Or, he struggles inside against better coverage. Whatever the case, just because he had moments last season doesn't mean it'll just work that way again. Especially without Diggs to take heat away from him. Someone else will have to fill that role to allow others to flourish.

Hopefully San Francisco gets this guy as part of their enhanced player security detail:

Ridiculous is the new normal here man. KC's defense doesn't get the credit they deserve, but they've steadily improved since 2018-2020 when they were not good. No longer are they the side that was 31st in yards allowed in 2018...they were 2nd in that metric and 2nd in points allowed last year. It's why KC can have a down offensive year now and still win a SB. Buffalo's a top-10 defense in yards and points allowed during the regular season, but can't keep that up in the playoffs. Difference this season is, if Buffalo's defense doesn't limit opposing offenses, their own offense isn't gonna be able to out-score opponents with their limited receivers.

I wouldn't even look at 2023 or 2024 yet. Too early to tell. But 2018-2022...kinda meh in the way of reliable starters on O or D (sorry, 6th round kickers don't count considering most aren't even drafted). And not guys who occasionally started or were primary depth. Leaves Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Gabriel Davis, and Christian Benford. Add Milano from 2017 and that's 3 defensive starters, 1 miscast WR2 on offense, and a G they prematurely let go who performed with another franchise. They're not a great drafting team because more often than not they play it safe and conservative. That's great if you want a roster with no big holes...but not if you're trying to win the SB featuring a more talented top of the 53.

Owners are making bank and that's who Goodell represents. Best part is seeing the post-Gene Upshaw NFLPA put up almost no resistance to anything. I'm not surprised to see PE given the ability to have minority interest, even if unable to make decisions. They'll eventually be allowed to have more of an ownership stake.

This goes further upstream than what players or even one side of the ball does on the field. Yes, even some of the best players make mistakes that affect outcomes. Absolutely. Still, before the first snap of the season management has already made their bed for the most part. Coordinator choices, which schemes they're running, UFA signings/draft picks, etc. You look at that first before isolating on field-level stuff. They've declined on the field because of what management decided off it for a few seasons now. And I'm not enamored with the idea the same leaders are going to get the team out of it.

This ain't about 1 game or even last season. Even when healthy, the defense paired with a good offense struggles in the playoffs. The 2019 defense had 15 defensive starters/contributors play 12 or more games and they still couldn't hold up benefitting from a 16 point lead in the WC round to HOU. 2020 defense was healthy overall with about same # of starters/contributors remaining healthy during season and in AFC CG vs KC it didn't matter because they gave up 38 points. 2021 defense saw White get hurt, but they were healthy otherwise. Didn't matter...still gave up 40+ to KC in Divisional Round game. Common theme is when a McD era Bills defense goes up against a really good offense in the playoffs they lose. Difference is in 2024, they won't have the offensive weapons to overcome defensive lapses, even a defense that is healthy.

Of course the HC is a part of the reason...how much so is the question. Versus KC in the Divisional Round they were minus defensive starters that impacted their game plan. Everyone by now understands that. Yet, this is more than 1 playoff game...the previous 4 seasons (2019-2022) they fell apart in the playoffs. I see people pointing to it being bad luck that players, especially defensive, are getting injured and stop their analysis right there. Someone upthread, I think it was @Billl mentioned their reliance on veteran players who likely have a lot of wear and tear on their bodies. The LB's can cover, but in the run game can be susceptible to injury because they're smaller framed. The scheme in general during the regular season is good against mediocre to average QBs, but in the playoffs against better ones tends to break down. All of this begs the question: if your defense is key, but doesn't hold up against better teams and the players are getting hurt after a 17 game season...how do you address that in the off-season? With new defensive additions? A new DC? Putting the breaks on your offense to maintain TOP and help the defense? Running it back personnel-wise for a few seasons with the same result? Because they've tried all that (or are going to in 2024). There isn't a lot of confidence that this time it'll work.

Their use of UFA from 2017-2020 to improve the roster perhaps allowed them to rebuild faster, but covered up that they aren't/weren't a great drafting team. When those UFA's moved on or aged out, the talent drop-off ensued as it has leading us to 2024 because their young talent wasn't up to it. Outside of taking Josh, trading for Diggs, and signing Miller, they're overall a really safe team in terms of personnel decisions. That's not always bad, but the roster taking a step back for 2024 isn't just a result of their cap limitations. Years of taking the low risk player with low to moderate upside is equally a problem. And, trying to fix problems from the previous season without anticipating their future challenges. Can't run it back frequently and claim you're getting closer to winning a SB. Eventually something's gotta give.

Buffalo's 2018 offense scored 96 points in their first 9 games. If your point is that the 2024 offense is likely not going to be worse...well, point made. They started at QB, in this order, Nathan Peterman, Josh Allen, Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley, and back to Allen For the record, 2018's first half of the season, offensively speaking, was statistically one of the worst since passing rules were changed effective in 1978.

A serious team having a franchise QB doesn't make this mistake. That's just pi$$-poor planning because you never bank on 5th or later round picks panning out. (Cue the clown who highlights a good late round pick and neglects to mention most never make it). And, McD knew he wanted Diggs gone at some point during 2023 because they didn't just wake up on 3 April and decide to move him. Point is, Buffalo has mismanaged (outside of trading for Diggs) the WR position for years largely because it's not a priority for them. For a professional team in this era that's inexcusable.

If there was a downside to the Diggs trade, they thought it meant they didn't have to draft WR or be aggressive in UFA in 2021 and 2022. Those decisions are a big reason why this is where they are now at WR...they weren't developing much there in those years. This makes me wonder whether the personnel teams, amateur and pro, are advocating for WRs and ignored or just focus harder elsewhere because they know what the bosses want. Regardless, even if they maneuver to get high enough to take a WR in next year's draft, I have doubts they'll get it right. Because 1) they've used only 2 top-100 picks on WR in 8 drafts and neither were/are highly rated prospects while 2) based on the Carolina WR decisions...their acumen finding good ones ain't great. Now, with their cap issues surfacing...they can't bail themselves out signing high dollar UFAs or trade for a 30M/year type. Now they gotta draft a good one AND get production immediately. Because Josh's contract really hits hard next season...and we all know he'll expect more than this motley crew of WR's they've put together.

I really got back into the Bills when they steamrolled teams the last half of the 2020 regular season. I hadn't seen such a dominant team since the SB years and being in the AFC CG was just out of this world. After the generation of fail from 2001-2016, 2017's backing into the playoffs, the debacle of the 2018 season, and not being confident in 2019 only to blow a wild card round 16 point lead I was tapped out. And then after 2020, their attempts to build around Josh slowly deteriorated. He's not perfect, but I'd rather have an imperfect Josh paired with actual NFL WR's than what they're going with this season. And I find myself mixed between anger at McBeane for following their stupid roster formula and indifference because it's clear they are less talented now than they were in 2020.

Re: #3: Brady retires for a season to find himself...but absolutely doesn't get fired. He's just not with the team anymore.

You likely don't have to trade for or sign UFA WRs (and take on decent sized contracts) if you A) draft WRs high and B) hit on those picks. Buffalo only got serious about WR this year they decided to move on from 2023's starters. Because...what you do in the draft tells everyone what your priorities are. And they didn't take a WR in RD 1-3 from 2018-2023. Always had another draft priority in that time. And still, as many others have observed, everything aligned well in this past draft. Buffalo needed a WR and the draft was widely held as strong there...yet they walked away with only 1. Living up to their history, they had more picks to use on safeties and DTs. Meh.

This year's WR group says more about how McD views Allen than anything else. Because the offense with Allen and Diggs meant you'd want to throw it downfield to maximize those players' skills. And both Daboll and Dorsey did, with good results at times. Removing Diggs, they've assembled a bunch of slot receivers, a rookie, and some low-end options who'll play close to the LOS. And the new OC knows that his HC expects the offense to go a different way than his predecessor OC's. This is by design and drafting Coleman doesn't really change the offense much for 2024. There's something about all of these moves which suggests McD wants Josh to play a safer style that will run it ~50% of the time and largely mixes in short passes to that limited WR group. I'm not even convinced that Kincaid is suddenly going to be catching passes downfield either. By constructing the offense this way, it speaks more to how the HC is unwilling to cede any more control to the QB than is absolutely necessary. Of course, something has to give eventually and it's only a matter of time. You can't have the HC clipping the QB's wings...the guy they need when the new stadium opens and charge exorbitant prices just to have the right to buy tickets.

Those jags behind their screen right now:

I've always pictured you as a Kramden-like blowhard anyway.

I am reminded of the scene in The Shawshank Redemption where Andy Dufresne is telling Warden Norton about someone else who committed the crime which put him in prison. After making a coherent argument, Norton argues against that possibility, leading to Dufresne to ask him "how can you be so obtuse." This thread is a lot of Dufresne's arguing with Warden Norton's...the latter of whom have something to protect and cannot be bothered with reason. Apparently now, if someone doesn't explicitly state something, it can't possibly be true.

Pretty alarming that a few weeks into TC they're coming to the conclusion they need more outside speed. Then again, it's not the first off-season they've had a lack of speed on offense...unless you count the short-yardage WR options they brought post Brown and Beasley. Agree that it's puzzling they're reaching this point, trying to be a team that's horizontal and not vertical when you have Josh Allen as your QB. It's almost as if they want to force Josh into becoming a semi-game manager type QB who has all these short options because throwing intermediate to deeper routes is risky. That was harder to do with Diggs and even Davis to an extent...both were guys people expected they'd throw those routes to. With them gone...oops...now we need to be within 10 or so yards of the LOS.

Have to keep the defensive unit off the field at all costs to preserve them for the playoffs...and we can't even get out of TC healthy. This is what happens when the offense doesn't play complementary football: defensive players get hurt.

And that's a fair distinction to make as it could point to a change in use for this season. My main point is they now need to feature him Kincaid deeper and his development from Year 1 to 2 is paramount to their offense succeeding. I don't like the emphasis they're placing on Kincaid improving so much. And, Coleman being put into a tough position as, apparently, the X. Can't have him averaging 9.2 yards per catch this year. We will see.

If McBeane were confident with their WR group, they wouldn't be making moves or inquiring about street FA's at this point in camp. Because if losing Chase Claypool means you gotta find explore WR's off the street, something is dreadfully amiss. Thing about Kincaid is, they used him close to the LOS and this season that's not going to fly. His 73 receptions averaged 9.2 yards per catch, or among TE's with 20 or more catches ranked 37th of 47. His yards per target was only 7.4, or 24th of 47. For reference, Knox was 40th and 45th respectively. They have to feature Kincaid on deeper routes, because their WR group features no one who is a legit threat. Not MVS, not Hollins, and certainly not Shakir or Samuel. And if you need to bank on Coleman, then that's an issue as well.

Beane loves his Corey's...he once took a swing on Corey Coleman and blew 3M in cap room. OBD has really dropped the ball, in all seriousness, at WR this off-season. Comes off as amateur hour.