BillsVet

He's not going to accept an AAV equal to what he had this year: 4.5M. So bank on at least 7M per. And that's low-balling it. Say Buffalo re-signs him. They'd have big dollars tied up in two DTs, a 3rd round pick and a top 10 pick. I'm sorry, but this team can find a solid contributor without investing big resources at DT. McD likes his waves of DT's, but was Buffalo's interior DLine that much better with Phillips? It wasn't, but plenty of people focus on that 10 sacks number and think he's gotta be retained. Not at the kind of money he'll be looking to make, but working in the Bills favor is that (so far) the DT UFA class looks pretty strong.

He's going to want a 4-5 year deal, and at 8M per we're talking probably 20M+ guaranteed. That's a lot for someone with 1 out his 5 NFL seasons being very good. I know some people are emotionally invested in keeping him, but the value isn't there and emotion doesn't play a part in this. Also, consider that Phillips plays the 3T most and that's where this team just took a kid 9th overall. He's also not a great fit at 1T where Lotulelei and H. Phillips will be next season in all likelihood (although it remains to be seen what Star brings). The PFF analysis makes a compelling argument for allowing him to test UFA. Just because a guy has sacks doesn't mean you keep him.

Bills fans paraphrasing Henny Youngman: "Take my offensive coordinator....please!" A top 30 offense 2 years in Buffalo no less!

This. Times a million. Or, the frequent use of "I mean" or "you know" to begin a statement. It's nation wide and annoying.

SAM's are not on the field as much with the game flexing toward passing and I'd think Buffalo would look to someone from within or a moderate UFA at most to replace him. For example, Lorax's snap count amounted to less than 50% in 11 of 16 games that mattered this season (everything minus the finale). After the Washington game, he largely hovered in the 30-50% range for snap counts. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlexLo99.htm In terms of leadership, I would expect by now that certain players can fill the void in the locker room after his retirement.

Beane mentioned that Singletary's setback with the hammy was unfortunate. Have to wonder if he ever fully healed and if not, they limited his touches for a reason other than Daboll forgot him. And I could understand that reason given the OC's penchant for the aerial game.

There's a reason McD talked at the Combine about needing to score 21 or more to have a chance to win NFL games. Teams scoring 21 or more points have won 46 of the last 55 playoff games from 2014 and 2018. Gotta score at a higher rate than 19 per game and I trust that McD and Beane will allocate the resources to improve the offense for 2020. Otherwise, their ceiling is probably 9-10 wins.

One weekend's worth of football doesn't change a decade plus trend that has demonstrated you've got to have a strong offense to win in the post-season. Even still, Buffalo is a 25-25 team with the offense they've put on the field under McD. I'll take my chances with a really strong offense and enough defense versus a pedestrian offense and excellent defense.

I can't help to look at what Baltimore did this year with Lamar Jackson, who was successful in large part because they didn't put a massive playbook on him. Instead, they had or surrounded him with plenty of talent, particularly on the OL and at TE. Their TE's caught 125 passes for 1500+ yards and 14 TDs. McD acknowledged yesterday that scoring points is harder that playing outstanding defense. Perhaps it'd be best to not rush this complicated scheme and build on what Josh has learned. If Baltimore can do what they did with Lamar, I'd expect Buffalo could find a way to similarly put Allen in position. In 2020, I expect McD and Daboll to modify that AND put a lot more talent out there to help him. Or else you're going to get a kid who tries to do everything again and his development will be hindered.

His criticizing the food put out for the media at a home game last month tells you the story about Jerry. He's just an angry human being that has an agenda and will color things in a way to support that. He's simply not a trustworthy source anymore. I'm not happy they lost, or over some of the decisions made, but it's over. The axe he's trying to grind has nothing left to sharpen.

When McD talked about there being "one voice" at OBD when he was hired, that wasn't just for PR reasons. He is a control-freak, and I say that in a positive way. He's also the one building the culture and the front office is supporting that effort in personnel evaluation, among other things. The players are guys that he can work with. I'm not saying other people don't get to communicate, only that he's leading this thing.

The bigger question is whether or not the HC begins to embrace a different ideology. Does he remain a HC that tries to keep games close and keep a lid on an offense to minimize risk? Or, does he become more aggressive now that Allen has more experience? You can sign and draft new offensive players, but none of that matters if the overall strategy remains the same.

McBeane had a 1st round grade on Ford, traded up into the top half of the 2nd to draft him, saw him not take the job in camp from a journeyman, and then demonstrate he is not a NFL RT. Allen took some hits because Ford doesn't laterally move that well. I'd say that's an indictment of the scouting process, or at a minimum, the decision makers. 4. Defense only carries a team so far, and as proven in Seattle, keeping and "elite" one together is impossible. Players age, contracts end, and players demand more money. Defense is nice, but having an elite offense is better and they'll need to do that before they can be considered contenders. The Bills have not yet had to deal with players wanting new deals and the philosophy McD employs of being strong against the pass leaves the vulnerable versus the run. That showed up at bad times against better opponents. They 5. Tre getting beat up by Hopkins and being named 1st Team All Pro really make it hard to understand where he fits in among the great CBs. He's excellent, and shut down some names this year. I doubt his price goes down after the Houston game, and his window to be re-signed begins when the new league year opens. He's the first home grown player McD drafted who'll demand big dollars. How they approach this tells the story of how McBeane go about retaining their better players. McDermott is a .500 coach after 3 seasons, yet, when push comes to shove he's another conventional coach. Hope to get a lead, then sit on it type. People should be questioning why his team blew a 16 point lead with 21 minutes remaining in that game. Or why he struggles big time against quality (i.e. playoff) opponents. He's 3-17 against playoff teams or in playoff games. That's gotta improve for his "process" to mean anything more than just a catch-phrase uttered by an average coach. Buffalo's strength of schedule was 30th and their strength of victories was 26th in the NFL this season. That's not going to happen again next year when they have the NFC West and AFC West on the schedule. Miami and NY Jets will improve.

McDermott has final say on personnel decisions. This is extremely early given that players have until 1/15 to declare, but I can see McD going DE. He'll justify it because Murphy is in the final year of his deal (if he's retained), and Hughes turns 32 this year. Lawson is likely gone, and then there's nothing behind them. Would rather see a WR, although there will be options in the 2nd given the depth of this class. Still, it's time to invest in the offense after what we see on display this past weekend.

And, as you noted earlier, much of this happened after he got ear-holed by JJ Watt when Cody Ford had another breakdown.

All of this depends on the HC changing his stripes and embracing the offensive game. I don't expect Air Coryell or anything like that, but there is an old-world thinking that needs to change. It starts with establishing a new offensive identity, finding better talent to fit, game-planning, and then in-game changes. They're a long ways off on all counts. Sean McDermott is the key to whether this team languishes as a defensive team that tries to play offense, or makes the leap toward being a contender. It's the difference between being .500 or slightly better versus a first round bye team. Right now, the HC is the main problem. Everything at OBD flows from him.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/02/what-sean-mcdermott-said-about-being-defensive-coach-in-offensive-era-of-nfl.html "We want to be able to score 21 points at least every game - be a threat to score 21,” he said. "Whether that happens or not, you’re going against a defense and weather. ... (You build your roster) to give yourself a legitimate chance to score 21 points. That’s really where the league is."

HBF - McD talks plenty about scoring points, but his actions say more about his coaching strategy. He’s a conventional HC that has resisted where the game has gone offensively. McD is a dinosaur in a 45 year olds body.

Let's go back to the Cleveland loss. That day was another badly managed game where McD was criticized for playing it conservative. And what was the response? Well, the guy who is the one voice of the franchise told the team they needed to play fearless. Miraculously, Chris Brown reported that and it became a catch phrase. Yet, the effect was it took the blame off of McD and Daboll by making it seem the play-calling was good, but the players were not aggressive. Same thing has happened after a much bigger game. McD made some dubious decisions that need to be scrutinized, but you wouldn't know that anything bad happened from a game-management perspective. No, according to McD, Josh was trying to do too much. I like Josh and he does admittedly play reckless, but he's a 2nd year QB and McD has been in the NFL 20 seasons. Daboll isn't far behind in experience. Which people in that situation should have the onus placed on them for blowing a 16 point lead with 21 minutes remaining now? McD is a manipulator, but with every close loss he's showing that he's another in a long line of play-it safe, don't risk much, hope to win a close one type coach. Those guys have a shelf life and it ain't that long.

No one thought they'd be this bad offensively after all the changes in 3 off-seasons. But it happened and must be fixed for this team to take a leap forward in 2020. McD is 3-17 in games against eventual playoff teams and in playoff games combined. In those 20 games, Buffalo averaged 11.6 points while giving up about 25 per game. Some of this is the result of the disastrous 2018 season, but all told, it's a common theme that McD falters against better competition. That's gotta change if this team ever expects to go deep into the playoffs. Meaning, McD needs to change his approach in 2020. All I've see is a coach who talks about playing to win, but doesn't coach that way.

Very few long term injuries to the OL. Morse in the pre-season had concussion issues and Nsekhe missed time, but nothing major for the others. I don't see them re-signing Quinton Spain because he's JAG. Dawkins I think goes into his contract year without a new deal. Morse is here to stay by virtue of his contract and while he's an improvement, he's not top tier either. I like Feliciano at RG, but RT is a mess. Nsekhe is passable, but Ford is incapable of playing the position and requires help. Why they left him alone against a even a wounded Watt is unbelievable. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a backup next season. The OL is still very much a work in progress.

You get out to the start they did and the expectations change. Going 5-1 doesn't justify keeping the same pre-season expectations. McD is the dominant voice at OBD and he has prioritized a defense that he builds with his guys. Beane's role is supporting McD to find those players who fit. That said, yes, the prioritization of defense should not be the case moving forward, especially with a young QB they moved up for. He is their franchise, not McD's defense.

To be ranked in the bottom quarter of the league after their spending last off-season and year 2 of JA is underwhelming at best. Still, if Daboll left either via a new job or was fired, who in their right mind wants to work with McD? I see a HC who de-emphasizes offense and their personnel evaluators don't seem to understand positional value (OT vs WR) or whom to pick.

McD's game roster decisions are head-scratchers. Presumably, putting D. Williams on the 46 man was an admittance of needing a big bodied receiver who could make contested catches against a weakened Houston secondary. Yet, where was that all season long against their weak schedule? Did they only figure out that they needed this element? It's not as if the other WR's were injured and Duke was the last man standing. It reminds me of last year when they went with tall slow receivers who did not separate. By the end of the season those guys were shelved and in came Ray-Ray McCloud and Isaiah McKenzie. McBeane are not forward thinkers on offense and largely react because they can't see where the league is going nor allocate resources to that point. It would have been nice to have DK Metcalf yesterday and not Cody Ford, who rarely meets a DE he can not get his a$$ kicked by.

Here's McD at the Combine talking about offense and then compare to their output this season: https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/02/what-sean-mcdermott-said-about-being-defensive-coach-in-offensive-era-of-nfl.html Cliff notes version: Gotta score 21 points per game. 2019 Bills Reality: Did so in only 6 of 17 games against one of the league's easiest schedules.