BillsVet

After the last 3 games that mattered (Week 14-16) when they've scored 17 points in each, we should be thinking they've been holding back for the playoffs. Or not. It is, as JaCrispy noted, McD we're talking about. ?

If a 3rd OC came in after Daboll presumably leaves, delivering similar bottom half of the NFL rankings points to the HC as much if not more than the new OC. At some point, the HC's strategy the OC implements on that side of the ball is not oriented to being a top offensive unit.

A third OC who delivers similar results with presumably better talent on offense definitely points more toward McD than it does the OC. Hard to argue 3 OC's preferring safe offenses which take few risks. There's only two things guaranteed in life and we all know what they are. That said, fortune favors the bold. Audentes fortuna iuvat.

The continuity argument was repeated endlessly during the DJ years, particularly after Buffalo had finished 2-8 in 2008. That was only 2 months after the Bills extended Jauron's contract. If something's not working, it's incumbent on management to make a change. The Bills invested plenty of picks and UFA dollars on the offense and it's only produced the 23rd ranking in points scored. They were 30th last year for reference. I don't see an innovative OC or someone with fresh ideas. Perhaps that's the HC guiding the game-planning, who knows. But Daboll's track record in Buffalo isn't one the supports the continuity argument. The unknown (a new hire) could very well be a better option than continuity.

Agreed. Ironically, that's when they started their most difficult of the season. McD said in the off-season they need to score 21 points per to have a chance at winning games. That happened only 6 times this season, and only once against a team that finished .500 or better (Dallas). Scoring 17, 17, and 17 against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England is not the way to head into the playoffs.

We're going to learn plenty about McD and whether he opens it up or tries to batten down the hatches. It's probably somewhere in-between, although how that works in the playoffs remains to be seen. Houston is definitely beatable, although it's going to come down to how Buffalo's offense can score on the less than reliable Texans defense.

Teams aren't concerned with the Bills, not their offense at least. Buffalo was 1-4 against playoff teams, with the lone victory coming against a Titans team that wasn't yet QB'd by Tannehill. Besides, the Bills scored all of 72 points in those 5 games against playoff teams and I can't see them suddenly improving in the post-season. McD's team is defense first and, as such, as a small margin of error. I can't see them really scaring anyone with that offense as a result.

The '78 rule changes implemented opened up the NFL for more passing, and that's what is here to stay. The running game isn't coming back like it was before those rules. And I'm sure the NFL is okay with that because there's less likelihood for injury than guys running into piles of bigger guys. The league's rules are situated to encourage passing, not to mention analytics tend to favor it given the propensity for big gains. Putting together long drives with plenty of running isn't as easy as hitting on a few intermediate or long passes. Sort of like MLB hitters swinging for the fences instead of trying to hit singles and doubles. A defense first team with a pedestrian offense has a ceiling, and it's not frequent that teams designed this way win in the post-season.

Another thread about Daboll where half the people cannot spell his name. LOL Daboll as a HC candidate is like Henny Youngman's quote to a robber to, "take my wife...please." Take my offensive coordinator...please.

QB's tend to break so called "curses."

During this season I've tracked Buffalo's strength of schedule (SoS) and strength of victories (SoV). Their SoS was the lowest in the NFL (.453) and SoV was ranked 27th in the NFL (.340). The teams with a worse SoV were Tennessee, Oakland, Dallas, NY Giants, and Washington. Contributing to these schedule ranks was Buffalo played 5 games against 4 of the worst 5 teams in the NFL. https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Sure, the schedule is out of their control, but the overall board sentiment I'm seeing is fans are happy Buffalo made the playoffs. At the same time, it's recognized this team has a lot of deficiencies which tend to show up against the better opponents. The 10-5 record in year 3 of their rebuild should also be compared to the other teams since 2017. For example, Baltimore was 9-7 in 2017, 10-6 in 2018, changed QBs and is 12-3 now. San Francisco was 6-10 in 2017, 4-12 in 2018 changed (or had an injury to their) QB, and is also 12-3 this season. Green Bay was 7-9 in 2017, 6-9-1 in 2018, changed HC's after last year and is now 12-3. The playoffs will again provide Buffalo an opportunity to show where they are. A win in the post-season demonstrates they're improving in year 3 of McBeane. Not winning a playoff game after 3 seasons is underwhelming compared to other teams that have rebuilt.

Investing in the DL with a top 5 paid non-QB? Reminds me of what happened in 2012 when Buffalo flashed Mario, Dareus, Kyle, and Marc Anderson. That DL didn't make the team demonstrably better and HC's like Belichick figured out how to avoid Buffalo's strength. You win with offense and having enough offense. Not devoting more resources to the defense so you can have at best an average offense.

For now it's nice to get into the playoffs, but Bills fans will want more than just an appearance. At some point, winning a post-season game will be the expectation and I'm not so sure McD's vision is consistent with doing that. Schottenheimer could well be the comparison if McD can't figure out a way to beat the better AFC teams. They're 0-3 against NE and Baltimore, so unless he figures things out offensively I'm not sure about where he's going. That said, his decisions in offensive personnel and subsequent strategy have me concerned. They've scored 21 points per in only 6 of 15 games this season and those opponents were not good. There's a need for a significant investment still on offense.

All of the "conservative coaches" named in this thread have been out of the league 30+ years. (OK, Noll retired after '91). Come on people, the game has changed dramatically over that time. Phil, your takes are not thrilling. If fact, I'd characterize them as poorly researched and vapid. Let's go back to McD's first comments to the media at the Combine in February. I distinctly remember hearing him say they needed to score 21 points per to have a shot at winning games. It was his way of blunting criticism about the anemic 2018 offense that was downright horrible the first half of the season and rallied somewhat in the second. (Cue the people who said they didn't have enough cap room to spend on offense last off-season). Yet, here we are in 2019 and In only 6 of their 15 games have they reached or exceeded that mark: at NYG, vs CIN, vs MIA, vs WAS, at MIA, and at DAL. I don't see the offense as really improving much from the start of the season to now.

McD is who he is and not about to change his spots. This is how he's obtained a HC job and acquired the power at OBD to implement his vision for this franchise. It's not new that he's a defense-first coach who, I surmise, wants to win with great defense and a safe offense. The off-season personnel and in-game decisions illustrate that so often it can no longer be ignored. I don't care what he says before and after games. If he doesn't acclimate to a rapidly changing NFL and begin to surround that QB with better talent they're not going to be a top AFC team. Because every time they play a top echelon team this is going to be the result.

The award is apparently handed out on Feb. 1. I don't think McD will be able to attend because he'll be game-planning for the SB on Feb 2.

It should be patently obvious by now that the Buffalo Bills miss having a starting WR with some size who can separate and win contested throws. Particularly when the QB isn't the most accurate and needs a WR to adjust to an off the mark throw. One thing about McBeane I don't understand has been this either/or mentality with regard to receivers. In 17-18 they pursued some guys with size like Z. Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, and Andre Holmes. By late 2018 they went away from that toward smaller types like McKenzie, followed by Brown and Beasley in '19 UFA. Gotta have some more balance and it's something I wish they'd be proactive rather than what I presume is reactive in the 2020 off-season.

Rank the top 5 UFA's Beane has signed regardless of contract terms. Then, compare that group to the number of UFAs signed (or players traded for) since 2017. That exercise should clarify the results have been underwhelming and Simon's point stands: pro personnel decision making, particularly on offense, has not provided this QB with the players around him to have a better shot at success. This was on display Sunday.

That doesn't change that their evaluation was off when they moved up to take someone who couldn't play the position they drafted him for.

Hard to understand how this regime traded up to take someone who continues to show he can't play the position they drafted him for. Then again, the entire OL was not good today, so that likely means less negative attention on Ford.

They need more talent at WR, all along the OL, and next year at draft time I hope fans remember this game when the decision is there to select offense or defense. A team predicated on playing strong defense without a top notch offense will struggle against more well-rounded teams like Baltimore.

I still remember one Saturday morning in March 2018 when so many TBD'ers went ape-sh** after NYJ sent 3 second rounders to Indianapolis to move up to take Darnold. The demand from a lot of fans that day was Beane "do something" and for some that meant trading from 12 to 2 no matter the cost. Funny how things play out. Reminds me of Marv Levy's comment about not listening to the fans because you'll wind up next to them if you do.

Both the Brown and Beasley deals are at their market value and I wouldn't consider them team-friendly or, for lack of a better term, unfriendly. I'm concerned with McD's overall personnel decision strategy, as evidenced by their move to take Cody Ford over D.K. Metcalf. If you've got a chance to get a skill type who can demand defensive attention, that's more important than plodding interior OL types like Ford. You can find those guys later or in UFA on team friendly contracts. You don't find top skill types there. Not quite. He is a guy who plays in any system, but has been used as a decoy in many respects by a HC who is not up to par for the NFL. There aren't many learned Bills fans who would say no to OBJ because he makes plays. Sometimes HC's have to learn how to manage personalities and not avoid them. High performing people in any environment make the difference and in a results oriented environment they can be the difference between winning and losing.

There are several chapters yet to be written about Beane and McDermott and this season alone neither proves or disproves their competence at team building. Early signs are encouraging though. Still, teams do not win without elite talent in the NFL and the HC and GM need better offensive talent for the long haul, particularly at WR because Buffalo has no depth there after Brown and Beasley. Speaking of those two, Brown turns 30 in April and Beasley will be 31 that month so they need talent there. The point is that coaches or GMs who eschew star players so as to have an easier way with building their culture are doing themselves a disservice. OBJ is a #1 receiver in a league with few of them. He's on a team with internal strife at every level and his production cannot be isolated down himself alone. He's a far better receiver that what one season's stats say and just because he hasn't lived up to the hype of that move doesn't mean he won't.

I would argue it starts when the teams run onto the field. Or, when they arrive for the game and go into the locker room. It could even be construed as beginning when the Ravens arrive on Saturday afternoon. One thing that's pretty likely is it's the beginning. Now, whether it's the beginning of the end or end of the beginning is a debatable point.