BillsVet

The roster is better, the QB is more experienced and they have continuity at the coordinator and HC. Everything is aligned for Buffalo to beat their biggest adversary. Still, it should be noted that McD is 0-6 against BB and been out-scored by 85 points in those games. He's gotta be better because most games are decided by one score or less.

I'd much rather have a dangerous offense than a dangerous defense. The first wins championships. The second wins over fans debating about pointless morning show rankings.

Dad's are always soft on the daughters. The boys OTOH...

Three drills do not nearly form the basis for comparison for a given player's best position. I'll give you one that isn't the whole story - Ed Oliver plays at (we're told) 285-290 on a 6''0-1 frame. Epenesa is 6'4-5 and has been listed around 275-280. Body composition notwithstanding, just comparing height/weight/speed is not telling anyone much of anything. Epenesa looks most like a 40 front LDE and was, in all likelihood, drafted to play there. After all, they signed 2 DT's this off-season, drafted Oliver last year, already had Phillips and Star from the year before. Let's not overthink this. Especially because he's not going to be a 1 technique if he played inside and could (underscore could) bump inside to rush as a 3 tech. Does that push out Oliver on passing downs? I'd hope not considering Oliver's a top 10 pick. Which situations does Epenesa move in?

McD's job title needs to change from Head Coach to Chief Executive Officer.

Those who are objective typically are chided or, at worst, ripped for not applauding most if not every move. I get that to be a fan you have to love the team. At the same time it's not wrong to be analytical and compare your team to the successful ones. I want Buffalo to win the SB like any fan. Loved the trade for Diggs, not keen on trying to be a top defense if it takes away from offensive investment given league trends and what the best teams are doing. We'll see, but all fans' perspectives should be discussed openly and without judgement. Here, that's a bridge too far when it comes to the biggest decisions.

If you add in cap hits of Addison's ~10M 2020 contract and assume Epenesa with 1.25M for this year, we're talking about 61M going toward the DL of their ~215M in cap dollars spent (assuming 6M for rookie contracts this season). That's approximately about 28% of their cap going to DL and the highest in the NFL so far as I can see. And yes, we should see significant production from that group. My guess is also that Murphy with a 9.775M cap hit many not fit into this group given. Just trying to put some context around this. The cap is flexible and many contracts are short term, but they'll have decisions to make on players soon. Especially with White, perhaps Dawkins, and hopefully Allen up for extensions.

Looking at McD's tenure as HC, he's 3-17 against playoff teams or in the playoffs combined. If we throw out '17 and '18, they were 1-5 last season against those caliber of teams. They kept games close with defense, but struggled on offense, never scoring more than 19 points against any of those teams (NE 2x, TEN, PHI, BAL, at HOU).

I did not notice that Addison is being counted as a LB in that analysis. That adds to my argument they've loaded up there and they've not yet signed Epenesa to his rookie contract. We're going to find out if this plan of featuring a deep DL pays off in wins. Ultimately, I think McD wants to be strong against the run to force teams to pass into that secondary with White, Hyde, Poyer, and whomever is CB2.

I think the concern with Buffalo is they lack elite talent outside of Tre White and perhaps Stefon Diggs. You'd hope that younger players like Oliver, Edmunds, Allen, Singletary, and others might distinguish themselves because the NFL is about creating matchup disadvantages. Heading into the season, Buffalo is strong across several position groups, but their lack of top end talent is something to be aware of. That said, Buffalo isn't going to sneak up on teams the way they might have in 2019 coming off a poor 2018 season. Hopefully, we'll see higher picks ascend into being top performers. They almost need to given the challenge of playing the AFCW and NFCW this season.

It's not an immediate concern, but many of these short term UFA DL signings will need to be replaced with draftees, yet after 4 drafts they've got 3 younger players on the DL: Phillips, Oliver and Epenesa. If they're going to perennially need a 7-8 man DL rotation, they'll require more draft picks because that seems like the HC's strategy. Bottom line is the 2020 Bills feature a lot of UFA's starting or contributing big minutes and the DL isn't the only example. Their OL and WR groups are largely made up of UFAs or those they've traded for. Still, something to watch out for.

I look at defense from the standpoint of impact plays: INTs, forced fumbles, and sacks. You can always debate which events on defense are most important, but swinging the momentum typically comes on defense with those results. And, it gets the ball into your offense's hands more to score points. Buffalo didn't lose much talent from their 2019 defense, yet they added 4 DL in the draft and UFA. To me, that's a lot of resources put into a unit that had already contributed to being 2nd in points allowed. I don't think the loss of Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson really hurts them significantly. I also recognize they needed to be replaced, and Epenesa probably fits into the role of base 40 front end. Still, is that investment likely to contribute to more wins against a more difficult 2020 schedule? That question will be answered in short order. In the interim, per Spotrac, Buffalo is investing about 23% of their current cap dollars in the DL. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/ Perhaps they have the flexibility to continue that trend when Tre White, Dawkins, Milano, and Allen come up for contracts in 2020-21 although it's hard to tell because the cap is very flexible. The point remains that player investment on defense should be centered on who provides impact plays and of course, on the offense. That to me is what makes good teams excellent and improves the W-L record.

Buffalo's DL depth largely is geared toward stopping the run and less so rushing the passer. Of those players on the roster, Hughes, Oliver, (EDIT: Addison) and perhaps Murphy are the guys who might regularly get to the QB. The rest are either unproven or not pass rushers. The key to good defense now is getting impact plays like sacks, INT's and fumble recoveries, not being strong against the run. Buffalo collected 14 INTs, 9 fumble recoveries, and 44 sacks which combined ranked 11th in the NFL.

My friend is a Vikings fan, so I hear all about the concerns he has with Zimmer trying to pair a strong defense with a run first offense. Doesn't help that Cousins is limited in some respects. Tennessee, from a team design standpoint, is still an outlier given their lack of results of multiple seasons. The point being, you're not riding Derrick Henry to playoff glory year after year the way a franchise QB that leading an ultra-productive offense can. Teams that try to balance out offense and defense end up running behind Kansas City in the AFC. Tennessee had a good defense and they got 35 hung on them in the AFCCG. San Francisco's defense broke down in the SB when they needed it most, albeit combined with an ineffective and uber-conservative offense late. I know many here want to latch onto the McDermott way, but if he doesn't begin prioritizing offensive production over his precious defense, Buffalo is topping out at a 5/6 seed or losing in the divisional round. Buffalo has to figure out how to compete with the AFC's best if they're going to advance and win the SB. That means beating KC.

The walk to the parking lot after that game was surreal. All the miscues, and bad coaching that took place near the end of that game was unbelievable. That final drive, Dallas then missing the 2 point conversion, getting the onside kick, and then...how do you let Patrick Crayton make the catch along the sideline to set up that FG? The DBs were off those receivers and gave them the sideline catch. What a mess. Freaking Dick Jauron. No way am I watching that game.

Buffalo scored 21 or more points just 6 times out of 17 games with five of those performances coming against teams that drafted in the top 10. I want to see the HC get away from the keep-it-close mentality that depends on the defense showing up every week. To win 10 or more games against this year's opponents it's going to take some weeks where Buffalo puts up 30. And that might mean throwing it 40 times. Teams that want to be strong defensively and conservative on offense have a ceiling that is around a 5 or 6 seed. It's going to take the HC changing his perspective and using newly acquired (Diggs) or hopefully improved weapons (Allen, Singletary, Knox) in the passing game.

In fairness, Beane hasn't had any team draftees up for an extension yet. Tre White figures to cash in, but he'll be the first. I disagree about receivers needing 2-3 years in the NFL to develop. Plenty of rookies, even those in the 2nd, 3rd and even later rounds have produced out of the gate. 7 receivers after the 50th pick last year recorded more than 500 yards receiving and that was considered a weak class. This year's class likely has to develop without a full off-season, but features a LOT more talent. I've read through coverage of Buffalo's two WR picks, Davis (4th) and Hodgins (6th). Ultimately, they are the bigger framed types McD seems to have clamored for last season. They're looking for a possession type and don't really have anyone on the roster resembling that aside from Duke Williams.

No, neither the HC or GM will go anywhere and I did not imply that. Yet, I am extremely confident McBeane didn't do all this work to go 9-7 and hope for a 5 or 6 seed Psychologically speaking, I think most people are afraid to have expectations for fear they will not be realized. It's OK to expect big things. It's OK to demand them from your favorite sports team and one is not less of a fan for doing so. For all the glowing reviews McBeane have received each off-season, isn't it logical to expect to see excellence by year 4? You can't applaud the personnel moves and then set the bar low for the coming season. It's a non-sequitur.

Four off-seasons into this regime has helped illustrate who they are and which priorities they have in assembling a roster. Much of the heavy lifting has been completed such as identifying, maneuvering, and then acquiring the QB. Or, building the defense into a unit the HC demands. I've said it elsewhere, but the plan has to bear fruit this season, i.e. a playoff win and a division title. McBeane will be judged not by individual player decisions with much of rebuilding behind them. Now, it's all about how their plan leads to wins in the regular season. I just hope the plan (or "process" in McD speak) can accomplish this. If not, the plateau into being average or slightly better will be frustrating. There are no more excuses.

Well if he does believe in that strategy, drafting a base DE and a slow RB probably aren't the ways to prove it. Or trading up to take an OT last year instead of a WR. I give them lots of credit for acquiring Diggs. I just see a very conservative coach on game day and more often than not in personnel decisions. Their 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't going to change the fortunes of this franchise. But those decisions illustrate OBD's mindset which, contrary to what management says, comes off as following the safe route. I get why they did last night. I just don't see it as the way to being an elite team when teams win by passing the ball and having just enough defense.

They have to win a playoff game this year to begin talking about extensions and the emotion at the high point of the off-season doesn't matter without that. This season is the final exam to determine whether or not their rebuild has been successful. Teams that jettison big contracts, completely overhaul the roster, draft a young QB top-10, make trades like the one for Diggs and completed 4 drafts should be expected to go deep into the post-season. The schedule will most assuredly be harder in 2020 than it was (30th hardest) in 2019.

Who cares? There were 15 WR's taken, 6 of which came in the first round. Another 9 in rounds 2-3. RB's are a devalued asset in the modern NFL. And it shows year after year when perhaps 1-2 are taken in the first round.

Which ones? Tennessee is the outlier, not the standard. In Back To The Future, Marty McDly went back 30 years into the past. You've done that outlining the strategy needed to win games in the 1990 NFL because ball control doesn't matter when your opponent scores 30+ like KC or perhaps BAL can do. Didn't Houston just score 19 points on Buffalo in something like 1.5 quarters? How are base DE's and slower RB's going to help Buffalo score?

Good offenses beat good defenses. See the SB win or AFCCG. Pretty much every game KC or BAL play. Those are the teams Buffalo needs to beat to advance.

Because as we all know...the key to winning is running and stopping the run. Oh wait, that was the 1985 NFL calling. Sorry.