BillsVet

I don't live or die on likes. This ain't some mindless Twitter post where people crave validation for their thoughts. My criticism is directed toward how this franchise values and allocates picks/UFA dollars on offense. And I suspect how they'll scheme the offense this season. Josh covers up a lot of their offensive deficit in skill players and this will become evident when they try to balance out their run-pass play-calls. Another big issue is their skill players aside from Diggs aren't blazers. Last season in more than 1100 offensive snaps they had just 2 plays more than 50 yards. And I know about Davis' Divisional round game where he broke a few. This season he moves up to be a Z from that 3rd option he'd been before. He's never had a catch rate over 57% and now faces better coverage. The AFC is quickly become dominated by the teams who not only have the QB, but feature 3 and 4 receiving options. Compared to Cincinnati, the Chargers, and KC, Buffalo is not keeping pace offensively nor do I expect their defense to get to the playoffs and shut offenses down. Defenses can't do that anymore.

The coaches and front office handling of Ford really casts into doubt their "failing" forward approach on players, especially picks. And, he's the highest drafted OLineman they've taken in 6 drafts which supports my contention that they struggle to identify and develop offensive personnel. They nailed the Josh pick, but there is no other drafted player on that side of the ball who I'd say is a Pro Bowl caliber player. At least not right now.

We'll revisit this topic when Buffalo invests a high pick to replace Hyde and/or Poyer in the short term.

GB - This is a heavy dose of quibbling. You're citing the Rams and Bucs as evidence other teams are investing as much in secondary talent? I will be ecstatic when Buffalo also begins investing on offense the way TB and LAR have these past few seasons. Or, with KC who up until last season had All-Pro caliber receiving talents that scorched Buffalo's vaunted defense 2 playoffs going. I'm not arguing against drafting CB's high (sorry @BillfromNYC), but there's a decision to be made when they're as weak in outside skill players as this team is heading into the regular season.

2 first round picks in 6 drafts is a lot of draft capital, particularly when their WR depth is as poor as it is. As are the UFA/re-signing contracts for 2 safeties and a nickel CB. At some point, the defensive investment needs to pay dividends and, considering the original point of this thread, that should be this season.

This same rationale was used in 2006 when John McCargo flopped out of the league and Kyle Williams played well. Sure, it's great that they get a starting player but missing on 1st rounders and claiming that's acceptable for the aforementioned reason isn't enough. Not when the HC is from that side of the ball and has significant input into drafting that player. McD's big thing is secondary and he's invested a ton there.

Has @Logic weighed in yet on the comparison between Dick Jauron and Bill Belichick?

I'm sure some people still make this claim re: UFA's, even after signing Von Miller. A ready-made excuse is difficult for some homers to give up when they need to defend the team at all costs. As to WR and TE, I don't think the braintrust really values those positions like they do secondary and DL. Most of their talent at WR since this regime took over was imported, either via trade or in UFA with only a 2nd (Zay) and 3rd (Knox) used there. It's as if they find a reason not to draft offense because a more pressing need exists on the other side.

McD is the primary weak link in this franchise. Not just because of 13 seconds, but rather his vision for roster priorities. He has every defensive piece a former coordinator from that side of the ball could ever wish for. He has to win now or it's an indictment of his overall coaching philosophy.

One would think that a team who can identify the QB would be able to build an OL. It's not as if they haven't spent big dollars to do so, signing a C in UFA and re-signing their LT to large contracts. Drafting another interior OL high and paying Daryl Williams. The issue to all of this is, Buffalo has not focused much on offense save for the 2019 and 2020 off-seasons. The former was all-in on UFAs and the latter to acquire Diggs. No issues there, but it's as if they said we're set there and banked on Josh to make it all work after his excellent 2020 season. This year, they threw some token money at WR and TE, drafted (another) RB fairly high for the position and, like 2021, seem content running it back again. McD is, despite all appearances, a conservative HC. He wasn't enamored with passing the ball so often and, late in the year running Josh. Dorsey will give him what Daboll did not: offensive balance. Concern there is will the OL support more rushing attempts how does taking the ball out of Josh's hands make the offensive better, and when does the lack of WR depth show up?

Maybe when Oliver starts getting more than 60% of the snaps he'll approach that. Maybe. This is another reason why McD's defensive scheme needs an overhaul because he invests high picks and UFA dollars into Dlinemen who are not on the field upwards of 40-50% of the snaps. And that's his vision of defense, the 8-9 man DL rotation, which he'll never evaluate nor adapt. So you get a top 10 pick at DT who in his seasons starting has a 54% and 58% snap count rate.

In Carolina, Gettleman drafted more players (1) who had a 10 sack season than have Beane/McD here (0). When you're looking up at Gettleman something's dreadfully wrong. Not saying a guy like Rousseau can't get there, but it's an indictment of the organization's talent evaluation they haven't identified one yet who can do that...especially for a defensive scheme that has to get pressure from the front 4.

Clearly a "process" guy.

I don't trust McD to do the finishing work on a roster. He's more suited to do the demolition perhaps, but when it comes to sourcing an offense he still has a limited understanding for that side of the ball. He'll never recognize that building an elite offense covers up for mistakes easier than does whatever an "elite" defense looks like in 2022. Expectations for the defense are sky-high, as in that they'll just shut teams down so the offense doesn't have to do as much. If that strategy doesn't work, they don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace. And that's on McD and to a lesser extent Beane for prioritizing defense again. I'm not arguing against Miller and love the signing...it's just that they left themselves thin playing whack-a-mole with the roster.

I get the impression some people would go as far as criticizing themselves before they'd do so for their Bills. #fanhood

Some people envy other people's guns.

The Pegula's don't strike me as the types who'll want to pay another HC if they fail to advance to the SB, so odds are McD stays unless they absolutely implode. Still, McD has been given everything he could ever need to win: a franchise QB who shows up in big moments, the proven pass rusher, and every other defender he's pushed for. If he can't win with this roster barring significant injury, then he's peaked. I think it was Bill Walsh who said back in the 80s that each season there's about 7-8 teams contending for the SB. The rest are either rebuilding or in the middle of the pack. That was the case last year with KC, BUF, TB, GB, LAR, and perhaps DAL and TEN being in the mix. Teams willing to be audacious are gaining advantages over those who take the careful approach. I think McD and his GM are in the latter group especially the HC. Their pass rush was anemic as the deadline approached and they did nothing, which showed up in the KC game. Old news, but a window into how McD operates with Beane. They were able to acquire Miller in UFA and for that credit to them this off-season, but you mention the deadline deals. KC and LAR made deals to bolster their pass rush with Ingram and Miller respectively. And Ingram showed up in the Divisional Round game. Still, Buffalo's made only one deadline deal during the 5 seasons McBeane have been there...and it was for Kelvin Benjamin in their first year. Oooof. The old way of drafting and developing picks, being careful in UFA, not trading picks at the deadline, etc. is falling away. We're seeing more deadline deals as teams look for a competitive advantage. Much like corporate America, you have to innovate or, at best, you stagnate in the NFL a la GB the last decade or so.

He did disappear. TMZ made him reappear for people with little to no life.

@BADOLBILZ I believe has said it before: McD is a significant improvement as a Monday through Saturday coach from his Bills HC predecessors. Evaluating McD on a scheme/personnel vision is another matter. As in, given that McD's vision/brand of football dictates how they acquire personnel, are those schemes appropriate? Especially with having a veritable franchise QB and the league placing a premium on scoring? I've long hoped they'd revisit the offense identity taking precedence with Josh, but I'm not seeing it. And, how does building up a complete defense (as McD desires/pursues) provide Buffalo a matchup advantage over teams that emphasize offense in light of rule disadvantages defensively (PI, RTP, etc.)? The cap is also beginning to run into how he builds a team. With Josh's contract hitting in 2023, the days of being 8-9 deep on DL and paying big contract for the back 7 will run into acquiring the talent to be a productive offense. Something's gotta give.

Comes down to the HC who, both on and off-field, leads the organization. 2022 will be a confirmation or rejection of his vision for a championship football team. As in, is the emphasis this off-season and previously on defense going to provide the margin to win against better AFC offenses in KC and CIN both regular and hopefully post-season? Is the likely emphasis on running the ball and taking it out of Josh's hands a net gain or loss for the offense? Are his choices for offensive assistants up to the task? Can he flex up his defense to confuse opponents, or run the same coverage schemes he has for a few years now?

Washington may be the largest man I've ever seen...at the 2000 Training Camp when I interned for a Rochester TV station. Standing next to Pat Williams, he made him look somewhat normal.

Gotta live up to the magnificent part first.

I wasn't aware we had a combination Nostradamus and Miss Cleo hiding in our midst.

With that rationale, they didn't do enough last year coming off 2020. And in their off-season review this season and by virtue of their offensive personnel changes, they took a similar approach for 2022. At this point, one does not need hindsight to cast doubt on those measures being sufficient.

Rarely when assessing why something went wrong is there one and only one true cause. Not putting Mahomes down was one contributing cause. Another was, for the second year in a row, not interrupting the routes Hill and Kelce ran and giving them free release off the LOS. Another was the rush and pass blocking. Their off-season review I would have thought identified all three as areas to improve. Their response was to overwhelmingly address 1. The second, well, it's McD's scheme Frazier is running and that will likely not change. And 3...that's what we're talking about here. This off-season the bias toward defense continued. And, as Beane has noted, you likely need to improve the areas where you lose your last game if it's in the playoffs. They haven't done that - again. This first sentence is the lead to Conflation 101.