BillsVet

A QB refusing to sign would be the nail in the coffin for this franchise. Someone will make the point it didn't hurt SD in 2004, but the scenarios are completely different aside from Nix being in both places. SD already and unknowingly had a top QB on the roster and received a king's ransom for the pick from NYG. Several respected people have come out and openly questioned how the BIlls operate, including Pat Kirwan, Jay Glazer, and Adam Schein. For a #1 pick to pull a John Elway on Buffalo would make clear the fact that Buffalo can't compete and isn't willing to do so.

No one's offering a trade for the #1 pick. It hasn't been done in 7 years come next April and back then the salary impact was much less than it will be barring a new CBA with a rookie cap. If you want to make the point that the first pick isn't always the best, well, that happens almost every year. It's a weak point, especially when bad front offices get the top choice because they remain at the top of the draft year in and year out. The teams that bust on QB's with #1 picks are those who are or were perennially bad: OAK, SF, HOU, ATL, CLE, and SD pre-Butler/Smith. Those teams always draft in the top 10 because their front offices were horrible. By comparison, IND, SD, NYG, NYJ, and ATL won't be returning in the top 3 anytime soon. And Polian and Jimmy Johnson knew what they were doing in 98 and 89 respectively. They never returned to the top 10 of the draft either. It's funny that some fans are so fearful of using that top pick because there's a chance it won't go right. That's a defeatist mentality borne out of this front office's failure to draft well for the better part of a decade. It's why the Bills are where they are.

There are too many ifs yet to be determined, but Luck is the clear-cut top QB at this point. As with most topics in the NFL, nothing is black and white. But here, if you've got the #1 pick, you take the best QB if there's a need and move forward. There are exceptions, but barring a Ricky Williams type offer, teams get the best QB with the top pick. Your Elway comparison is made with the benefit of hindsight. That deal would have gone over like a lead weight when Kelly didn't sign and considering the Bills had just jettisoned Chuck Knox so they could get Kay Stephenson. For argument's sake, let's assume there's a rookie cap in 2011 and Luck comes out. Buffalo deals the top pick for a package of picks. At that point, there'd be a revolt when Luck lands elsewhere and the Bills take a lesser prospect in order to built the other areas of the team.

If Buffalo has the first pick, Luck is available, and they trade it then just close up shop and move. The circumstances in 2001 and 2004 were very much different, in that neither #1 guy, Vick nor E. Manning, were who SD wanted. And the guaranteed money back then was a fraction of what it'll be in 2011 without a CBA including a rookie cap. In 01, Vick was not a complete NFL QB. E. Manning and Rivers in 04 were the top 2 QB's in a deep class. It doesn't look at this point like there's much guaranteed behind Luck if he comes out. Mallett has footwork and touch issues while Locker is more athlete than QB right now. That's not to say they can't be good, but you don't pass up a turn to take a NFL ready QB with huge potential. Bill Polian could have traded down in 98 and let someone else take P. Manning. But he didn't and that guy became the cornerstone of the franchise.

If the Bills OLB's had to rush their starting OT's each week, would they be able to get to a QB?

I would have thought offensive genius Chan Gailey would have figured out a starting RB without a trade, distributed the ball to the water bug 9th overall pick, and not had an issue picking a QB. But 5 weeks in we're finally getting some answers! Maybe by Week 10 they'll have some more slants called to minimize the lack of pass protection.

One off-season into Year 0 of the rebuild, Buddy has emphasized not trading picks and that they'll sit out free agency while the big dollars are spent. Dwan Edwards and Andra Davis were lower to middle cost UFA's brought in to help the 3-4 transition, which is what they've done. At this point in the rebuild they're sellers, not buyers. They'd rather sign other teams PS guys or sign some street free agents than trade picks or even players like Lee Evans. Trade deadline or not, it's going to be a long season and no reinforcements are coming.

This is a sad statement. DW is easily replaceable, and being the 8th overall pick he's as close to being a bust without actually being one. Marv's drafts were the result of consensus, which translates to compromise. Why this team decided to rebuild its secondary before the OL and DL was beyond me. I can excuse them for holding onto JP in 06 and not drafting Cutler (like Modrak claimed he wanted to do) but there was no reason to draft DW. I was blasted for having the audacity to note that Marv had no NFL experience handling the highest ranking position on the football side of the house. And now 4 years later it's clear that while his intention to replicate the Polian years was nice, he didn't have Butler, Smith, or Adams to help him make decisions. In their place he had Modrak, Guy, and Jauron who won't go down as much beyond mediocre talent evaluators. Also find it funny that Modrak's survived through 4 different GM's. Maybe he (like Overdorf) can't be fired without the owner's personal consent?

How does a professional sports team have a plan when they've got a 92 year old owner who admits they need another 3 years? And said owner already hired a 70 year old man for GM who hires a 58 year old man who's had multiple spins on the coaching merry go-round with little success in 9 years? And aside from firing a bad Pro Personnel Director, what's changed in the front office to demonstrate non-football people aren't still influencing decisions? Nothing. If more Bills fans expanded their minds and looked at how other teams rebuild, they'd understand by the end of Year 0 there should be some good signs. Sure it's early, but they're grasping at straws already. The DC is throwing the kitchen sink out there, is rotating guys and still can't stop Jacksonville from rolling up 450 yards and scoring on 8 of 9 possessions. Offensively, I've seen little from Gailey to get his prized possession, their 9th overall pick, the ball. The OT's are a revolving door of terrible, and they were either A) fooled by Edwards off-season or B) arrogant to think they could change him. Ughhh. Changes aren't necessarily better. It's more rearranging of deck chairs.

Russ did go to the Combine to scout. And was promptly laughed at for masquerading as a GM. I saw Mr. Smithers walking on the field Sunday. Didn't look enthused, but hey, they've got Toronto for a few more mil.

Not quite. Marv's drafts, the result of "consensus" were horrid. The mark of a decent starter is whether they can earn a contract extension or win big in UFA. Whitner won't be re-signed and neither will Ellison. Williams is high-energy, but part of a defense leading the league in rushing yards allowed. It's not a crusade like it was 2-3 years ago for me to say those drafts, particularly when viewed with who they missed picking, were brutal. They wouldn't be rebuilding if they had 3 legitimate NFL starters from each draft.

I recommend fans read "The GM" about Ernie Accorsi's last year as GM for the NY Giants. When Accorsi was faced with a top pick in 2004, he personally scouted Eli Manning and said that was his guy. He also scouted Jeremy Schockey in 2002 and even went to his hometown. And if my rep was dependent on a high pick, I'd want my GM to personally see a guy if he chooses to pick him. GM's do indeed scout, and I have no issue with Buddy doing this. He has an Asst. GM in Whaley who's been around for a few years. Besides, don't they have phones now? It's not like the guy is completely out of touch if he's not physically at OBD.

Polian had a hand in the 85 draft, then built the team through 3 more drafts (with help from ex-USFL'ers) before they went to the AFC Championship in 88. In 2010, team's have help in free agency and frequently build in 1-2 years. I don't think this rebuild will last less than 3 more off-seasons. Even if RW remains owner, the stadium lease expires after the 2012 season.

I could see the NFL, as a possible offering to the NFLPA, yielding the rookie wage scale during CBA negotiations. That doesn't mean it's not an issue, just that both sides know the success of the NFL stands in the balance. This is a problem owners created with help from scrupulous agents. 1st rounders on average receive 15-20% more over the same slot from a year earlier. If the same holds true in 2011 and Buffalo selects a QB, the kid will get 55-60M! I too have a hard time seeing anyone paying that out, let alone Buffalo.

IMO, far too man people overestimated Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix. We all tend to get emotional with our teams and value our players/coaches more than they're worth. Gailey and Nix are what they are: people unproven in their current positions who would most likely not be in the NFL were it not for this franchise. Both are likable, both are versed in football-speak, and both have cut their teeth in lower jobs. Right now, the GM and HC are working under conditions unsuitable to winning in the NFL of 2010. A new GM ought to hire his own people, but it's people like Modrak and Overdorf who couldn't get fired if they wanted to. George Costanza dragging the World Series trophy around in the parking lot comes to mind. There's no reason the entire front office wasn't cleaned out, unless it isn't the GM calling the shots.

What will it take for some homers to finally stop giving Bills management the benefit of the doubt? Every negative report is ridiculed, every reporter discredited with questionable reasons, and inexplicable moves forgotten. This is the same team that re-signed Chris Kelsay to a contract extension after all. Anyone still wonder why Buddy never got a GM job?

I don't see GE getting fired during the bye week, because they now know how little talent they inherited. And that they drastically exacerbated this dearth of players by converting to a scheme for which they could not staff. But most of all, they won't fire Edwards because it would indicate their initial decisions were wrong. In this case, firing a DC isn't going to make that side of the ball better. Besides, who are you going to elevate? Giff Smith? Bob Sanders? Those are unappealing options IMO.

You've got to be kidding. Matt Ryan was a rookie, regardless of draft status and Chad Pennington was coming off his 31st shoulder surgery in 2008. Difference was, their coaching staffs planned around their limitations and found ways to put them into position to succeed. You don't need to be a SB contender to have completed a rebuild. I would say that even though both teams stumbled in 2009, they're primed to be better than the failures they were before new regimes took over. And when I say new regime, I'm referring to new everything in the front office with complete support from the owner. That's what it takes to win in the NFL of 2010, not some half-measures like keeping the director of amateur scouting through 4 different GM's. No, you can't completely judge the rebuild yet. But you can see some moves made that defy logic, are short sighted, or came in the regular season that should have been done earlier. As I said in another thread, guys like Mike Shanahan don't wait for Jason Campbell to stink before cutting him. He made the change when changes are made: in the off-season. And it's why a team in an equally difficult division, who changed their defense and offense, a coaching staff, and won fewer games last season than Buffalo will be better than the Bills the following season.

Simon goes on a rant once or twice a season, so this isn't surprising. If you listen regularly, Simon and White bemoan the team but clearly do not know how a team is built nor that it can be done quickly with sufficient resources. This is a main problem of TBD as well. When Simon and White make their points to Sully, it's a conflation of arguments, half-truths, and taking things out of context. Either they're dumb enough to believe themselves, or are showcasing a persona they don't truly believe. I'd say the former. First, Simon and White attacked Sully's opinion that the franchise needed to bottom out. Sully wanted the team to bottom out, ergo, it's what you wanted and you shouldn't be upset. Well, it's one thing to bottom out with some pieces on the roster to build on. But this team has very little with which to build, particularly at QB, OT, and pass-rushers, the premier and required positions for success. Not all of it is Nix and Gailey's fault, but they eschewed opportunities to acquire some guys. And they drafted a RB who while talented, doesn't address their gigantic holes on the OL and DL. Rebuilding teams don't have the luxury of taking BPA. And their other early picks are not playing or hurt. Not a good start when other teams have so many guys contributing. Which brings me to point 2: that it takes a full regular and post-season to evaluate the roster. That should have been done, regardless of the previous system, in the off-season with film study and in practice. No, they can't turn the roster completely over, but it's absurd to think they needed regular season snaps to know what Fewell did in 09 re: T. Edwards. Lastly, Simon and White attacked Sully for saying Lynch needed to go long ago. Unloading Lynch may have brought only mid round picks now or in April, but it would have opened up the backfield for Jackson and Lynch to team up rather than crowd them with a third guy needing touches. You can't quantify this, but undoubtedly they'd be better with only two backs needing carries than three AND having picks without a Lynch distraction. Most of Sully's point is that the Bills are prolonging the rebuilding process by doing the work in the regular season that most teams do in the off-season. Think Mike Shanahan needed 2-3 games to evaluate Jason Campbell? No sir. And he also points out that moves like re-signing Kelsay is a waste, when it contradicts them wanting good players who produce. Since when has CK produced on the field? Leaders who can't play aren't worth what that guy received. Talent evaluators are not all created equal and here the organization has not earned the benefit of the doubt. White and Simon are like goober fans who don't possess the savvy to make moves when it's the right time. Sully may be critical, but this team has earned nothing in the way of credibility. They have a lot to prove and I'd trust Jerry Sullivan to rebuild the Bills more than Simon and White who are wedded to playing the role of schlubs that retreat into absolutes when the subject is so multi-faceted.

It's ironic that Buffalo's top 3 picks in 2010 were all southern guys. Yes, it's a talent rich area but Nix and Darrell Moody have an avowed love of the southern area from their work there. Heck, Buddy lived in TN while Pro Personnel Director for SD.

At the risk of hijacking the thread, TG did a great piece on the Kelsay extension: TG re: Kelsay extension Based on TG's research, there was little if any reason to re-sign CK for this money and this time. But most of TBD already knew that. For Nix and Overdorf to give this kind of money to CK is what everyone's been saying: ridiculous and unfounded.

Homers don't see anything wrong with the current state of the team. They're rebuilding and it had to happen after 4 years of DJ. Of course, they said the front office had to be given time to change back then too and we know how that went. As others have said, the burden of proof is squarely on the front office to prove they've corrected their ways, given the GM and HC the resources commensurate with succeeding in the NFL of 2010, and minimized interference from non-football people. It may not be able to be corrected overnight, but the early returns show that decisions are being made by less than adequate (based on resume) leadership and are merely reactionary as opposed to part of a long term vision. Giving the front office the benefit of the doubt is something I stopped doing years ago. Sully ain't perfect, but he's a columnist in a town with 10 going on 11 seasons of mediocre to bad football. Gee, I'd wonder if something was seriously wrong with that track record.

The entire future of the franchise rests on the shoulders of a soon to be 92 year old man. As inconvenient as it is, this is reality for Bills fans. Everything else is secondary when discussing the success or failure of the team.

Thanks John for the intel. I stand corrected in my assertion that the team responded to Sullivan's column.

Amazing the power of Sullivan's columns. The guy writes an article and then blammo, Nix appears. I know BN can't say much and won't yield that things are terrible, but the fact they jump when Sullivan says jump is hilarious. There's never been more uncertainty surrouding the team and someone at Nix' level doesn't have the answers nor can assuage the concerns of fans about the future. The organization is totally reactionary, and it goes all the way from personnel moves to public perception.