BillsVet

This year, the pick of the litter isn't all that special. Newton is a complete project who'll need 2 seasons minimum and Gabbert has too many negatives to be a top 3 pick. Of all the years to have a high pick and need a QB, this one isn't it.

Makes one wonder why John Guy got the ax after the 2009 season and Modrak remained. Both were hired long ago by a GM who's not in the NFL. Both were promoted to VP after the 2008 season, and of course both had equally bad records in their side of the personnel house. I get the impression the major reason Guy was fired was because fans had learned his name and knew how bad the pro personnel side of the house had been of late. Perhaps if enough people complain about Modrak, RW and his marketing people will sense an opportunity to satisfy the fan base by cutting the Director of Amateur Scouting.

Not all positions are equal in terms of value. Guards and safeties are, for the most part, easier to find than OT's and pass rushers. And for as good as it seems Levitre and Wood appear to be, they were 2 of the highest drafted interior OLineman in the 2009 draft. The Bills will get credit for a solid draft when they begin filling the marquee positions of QB, OT, and pass rusher, 43DE or 34OLB, with outstanding players. In the past 11 drafts they haven't found one guy who could play any of those 3 positions. Fine guard and safety play does not make up for it, especially when those guys are found with high picks. Draft value isn't something the Bills have mastered, let alone finding talent high and low.

This concept that finding a few late round guys who became marginal to above average starters makes up for 1st/2nd round busts is laughable. Yes, they found Kyle Williams and he partially makes up for the failure of John McCargo. But playoff caliber teams find a Williams in the 5th AND outstanding players in the first and second. It's why Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and New England are regularly in the post-season and Buffalo languishes in the doldrums with no elite talent. Rarely are teams finding elite players in rounds 4-7 or in UDFA. Buffalo has 1 Pro Bowl appearance out of their 10 1st/2nd round selections from 06-09. While the book isn't closed on the 09 class, that's an extremely poor record for a team that relies more heavily on the draft because of their market size.

This is the same person who ordered Wade Phillips to start Rob Johnson in a playoff game because the QB beat Indianapolis in a near meaningless finale. I thought April fools was on the 1st. It's well known that RW wanted Lynch badly as well. Do you work for the team or something?

Sam and Wills are not taken 2nd overall in the NFL draft because it's terrible value. I don't think Miller is Denver's pick for this reason, and they've got Dumervil and the underachieving Ayers to be their DE's in that 43. It's also poor value to take 5 technique's 3rd overall, especially when you just drafted 2 Dlineman with high picks a year ago and signed another for decent money. If the Bills take a Cam Jordan at 3, they're not getting value. The NFL places a premium on QB's, pass rushers, and OT's. Cam Jordan is a fine player, but he's not going to be pressuring QB's like Von Miller does from the ROLB position in a 34. Right now, if Dareus isn't available, the pick should be Miller.

Clearly you're a conspiracy theorist. There's little to no evidence that's ever been the case.

If the Bills elect to take Gabbert third, I would hope they make a point of giving him the tools to succeed. At this point in a unique offseason, they have no designated starter at RG and a complete black hole at RT, the second most important line position. From a skill position perspective, the receivers and backs seem adequate, but a young QB should have a TE capable of making teams pay down the seam. Merely drafting a QB doesn't mean the position is finished from a personnel standpoint.

I think RW trusts Nix, but as an owner (in concert with senior finance types) he's looking at the team marketability factor as well. Buddy Nix, OTOH, is a scout who's looking at the players probably without the thought of marketing the team. This is not an argument based in absolutes, as is so often portrayed by RW apologists, but somewhere in between. This time, with the 3rd overall pick, I'd trust Nix before RW because I do not agree that they have to take a QB like the owner does. And if Nix takes a QB, there'll be suspicion that RW influenced the pick. Based on the owner's personnel moves like ordering RJ to start in the MCM game and signing TO, can anyone blame those people for thinking that? It's ironic on TBD that many drown out the voices who believe the origin of most problems at OBD is the owner. The record speaks for itself, and I'll refrain from listing it. But as much as it's wrong to say "RW makes all the picks" it's also incorrect to mention that RW allows his people do the jobs they're hired for. After all, he admitted the drafting is terrible and did nothing about it save hiring Nix who was not allowed/did not re-order a scouting department which consistently failed going back to 2002.

Completely missed the point as usual. It doesn't need to be a QB selection for RW to have "involved" himself in the decision making process. After all, Jerry Sullivan has mentioned that RW wanted Lynch in 2007 (cue the Sullivan rant) and I'm sure that's not the only instance he's been immersed in a draft pick. But because it's someone saying something negative about the Bills, it's wrong and we conflate the argument.

The only question is when RW orders Nix/Gailey to play the highly paid rookie. Seriously, Buffalo going QB will raise questions about who's really making picks at OBD. Then again, as long as RW owns the team that suspicion will always be present. Kinda like drafting a RB 9th overall and then putting 2 bad to mediocre OT's in front of him, right? Taking a QB means investing serious resources into the OL, likewise with drafting DB's: they need people in front of them, and Buffalo is so busy fixing a myriad of problems, they don't fix one side of the ball nor build a team.

Yep. Merriman is getting 2.5M guaranteed in 2011 and Kelsay inked an extension paying him 28M over 5 years. Sure, CK probably won't play out that deal, but using the 3rd pick on Von Miller means a lot of money is tied up in the OLB position. The ROLB is typically the pass rusher (going against a LT) and it'll be interesting to see who starts there. If Buffalo takes Miller, he needs to start from Day 1 at ROLB, although who plays LOLB is anyone's guess. Merriman and certainly Kelsay couldn't cover a TE to save their life.

Four teams in 3 seasons tells me all I need to know. Journeyman type who should be a backup.

(3) Von Miller (34) Christian Ballard (68) Lance Kendricks

I think Nix doesn't value the OT position and would rather spend his picks on 5 tech DE's and of course RB's. I don't care for Modrak, but I recall Tim Graham mentioning that many college scouting directors do not work out of the team headquarters. But relative to Modrak, how can anyone blame him for not being located in Buffalo? Then again, RW probably calls him 3 times a day. I think the owner acts like a man who's 90+ years old. His world is smaller and he only wants people he trusts regardless of their skill or acumen. Unfortunately, his decisions and desire to hire people he personally knows have seriously harmed the franchise and as a result, he couldn't hire a top qualified GM, personnel execs, or HC if he wanted to. When you add it all up, the Bills are managed by inferior people who predictably make bad decisions more often than the teams who succeed.

It does matter who this team selects with their top 2 picks, because these guys should be expected to start from Day 1, unlike last year's top 2. The exception remains a QB who needs time before starting. No team drafts purely for need and likewise for BPA. There has to be some of both in your top 2-4 picks. A team that strictly goes BPA, which I what I think Nix thinks he can do will take a significantly longer time to rebuild. This somewhat reminds me of how SD rebuilt from 2001-2003: nearly all of their top picks were skill players: Tomlinson, Brees, Jammer, Sammy Davis, and Drayton Florence A lot of fans think SD is a very talented team, but three years into their rebuild, they were back picking first overall. The notion that Buffalo can't take a step back now because they're two-off-seasons into this rebuild is false. And drafting purely BPA, i.e. Patrick Peterson or AJ Green, doesn't necessarily equal wins Buffalo needs serious help at QB, OT (LT and RT), OLB, ILB, and DL for whichever defense they run.

It's really amazing how terrible Buffalo's first round picks have been going to 2000. They've had 13 picks in the first round since that year and of those, they've got one Pro Bowl appearance (Clements) and no less than 5 busts.

My main issue with Von Miller isn't with the player himself, but the team. We all know the Bills have a myriad of problems, namely pass rush. But the Bills have already invested big dollars into this one position by re-signing Merriman and Kelsay although neither is going to scare opponents. Using the 3rd overall pick on an OLB means spending a lot of resources into one position. Gabbert, OTOH, seems like something manufactured by the draft hype machine at ESPN, et al. As for Peterson, I'd like to not have Bill from NYC's head explode, so no on that one.

SD took 3 full seasons and 4 off-seasons to go from picking 1st to being a playoff team. The more savvy teams don't need 3 or 4 seasons, which is important now because the NFL is more win-now than it's ever been. Since Nix has taken over, the Bills have made some poor pro personnel moves: signing Cornell Green, re-signing Kelsay, and giving guaranteed money to a player who's missed chunks of time in Merriman. On draft day, he used a top pick on a RB who couldn't start and seems to think he can find bargain bin OT's to start. At this rate, the Bills might need a lot more time than fans have patience for.

Modrak identifies that safeties who can cover and support the run are valuable, which is correct. Donte Whitner never could do either all that well, which is why he wasn't re-signed before the lockout. But this is a guy who's only big pick in Round 1 going back to his Philadelphia days has been Donovan McNabb. Marv's problem was he wasn't a GM and figured the guys working for him were competent enough to make up for that. Jauron, Guy, Modrak, none of those guys are renowned for their decision making at the position they were in with Buffalo.

Decades of fail tend to color your perception of where the team is going. Tom Dimitroff and Mike Smith put a playoff team on the field their first year together. Ozzie Newsome and rookie HC John Harbaugh did that the same year. Both teams did it with rookie QB's. So, the idea that you can't judge yea or nay after a season is not accurate. This is the same stuff people said after DJ's first two seasons, that he hadn't been given enough time. Well, there are subtle but obvious examples to demonstrate people aren't going down the right path to rebuild. And I'm referring to taking a RB 9th overall at the beginning of a rebuild who can't start for you. Nothing against CJ, but he wasn't ready at an easily to transition position his rookie season. A seasoned talent evaluator like Nix should know this.

Wannstedt has been a 4-3 guy since entering the NFL. He'll be tasked with coaching the ILB's, who both function much differently than a MLB. The defense and offense need serious help at the marquee positions, OT and DE/DT. Dareus would be the guy who could work in both a 4-3 and 3-4, but he'll be long gone. I get the impression Buddy wants out of 3 because the prospects don't line up with Buffalo's significant needs. If they want a 5 technique, it's not good value at 3.

I'm amazed Nix and SD used only one pick in the top 3 rounds from 2001-08 on an OT, that being Marcus McNeill. I wonder if Nix even values the position as much as some of us, given that LT and RT are the two most important OL positions. What's scary is the depth at QB behind Fitzpatrick. Protecting him with a bargain bin pickup via UDFA, low cost UFA, late round pick or former practice squad type on his 4th team in three years wouldn't seem prudent. Then again, I think Nix thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and can find OT's anywhere during the season in case something happens.

I love it when posters who don't agree with someone's negative opinion on the Bills simply resort to attacking the person and not the opinion. Of course, it's fun when someone associated with the NFL says something so ridiculously wrong about the Bills that a poster chimes in and says because posters aren't NFL'ers that we're automatically wrong. Which one applies here?

Buffalo Bills drafts 2000-2008: "Hey, we're not as bad as Detroit!" Is that what you're trying to say? Even the owner admitted last December that their drafts had been "terrible."