BillsVet

I think Nix doesn't value the OT position and would rather spend his picks on 5 tech DE's and of course RB's. I don't care for Modrak, but I recall Tim Graham mentioning that many college scouting directors do not work out of the team headquarters. But relative to Modrak, how can anyone blame him for not being located in Buffalo? Then again, RW probably calls him 3 times a day. I think the owner acts like a man who's 90+ years old. His world is smaller and he only wants people he trusts regardless of their skill or acumen. Unfortunately, his decisions and desire to hire people he personally knows have seriously harmed the franchise and as a result, he couldn't hire a top qualified GM, personnel execs, or HC if he wanted to. When you add it all up, the Bills are managed by inferior people who predictably make bad decisions more often than the teams who succeed.

It does matter who this team selects with their top 2 picks, because these guys should be expected to start from Day 1, unlike last year's top 2. The exception remains a QB who needs time before starting. No team drafts purely for need and likewise for BPA. There has to be some of both in your top 2-4 picks. A team that strictly goes BPA, which I what I think Nix thinks he can do will take a significantly longer time to rebuild. This somewhat reminds me of how SD rebuilt from 2001-2003: nearly all of their top picks were skill players: Tomlinson, Brees, Jammer, Sammy Davis, and Drayton Florence A lot of fans think SD is a very talented team, but three years into their rebuild, they were back picking first overall. The notion that Buffalo can't take a step back now because they're two-off-seasons into this rebuild is false. And drafting purely BPA, i.e. Patrick Peterson or AJ Green, doesn't necessarily equal wins Buffalo needs serious help at QB, OT (LT and RT), OLB, ILB, and DL for whichever defense they run.

It's really amazing how terrible Buffalo's first round picks have been going to 2000. They've had 13 picks in the first round since that year and of those, they've got one Pro Bowl appearance (Clements) and no less than 5 busts.

My main issue with Von Miller isn't with the player himself, but the team. We all know the Bills have a myriad of problems, namely pass rush. But the Bills have already invested big dollars into this one position by re-signing Merriman and Kelsay although neither is going to scare opponents. Using the 3rd overall pick on an OLB means spending a lot of resources into one position. Gabbert, OTOH, seems like something manufactured by the draft hype machine at ESPN, et al. As for Peterson, I'd like to not have Bill from NYC's head explode, so no on that one.

SD took 3 full seasons and 4 off-seasons to go from picking 1st to being a playoff team. The more savvy teams don't need 3 or 4 seasons, which is important now because the NFL is more win-now than it's ever been. Since Nix has taken over, the Bills have made some poor pro personnel moves: signing Cornell Green, re-signing Kelsay, and giving guaranteed money to a player who's missed chunks of time in Merriman. On draft day, he used a top pick on a RB who couldn't start and seems to think he can find bargain bin OT's to start. At this rate, the Bills might need a lot more time than fans have patience for.

Modrak identifies that safeties who can cover and support the run are valuable, which is correct. Donte Whitner never could do either all that well, which is why he wasn't re-signed before the lockout. But this is a guy who's only big pick in Round 1 going back to his Philadelphia days has been Donovan McNabb. Marv's problem was he wasn't a GM and figured the guys working for him were competent enough to make up for that. Jauron, Guy, Modrak, none of those guys are renowned for their decision making at the position they were in with Buffalo.

Decades of fail tend to color your perception of where the team is going. Tom Dimitroff and Mike Smith put a playoff team on the field their first year together. Ozzie Newsome and rookie HC John Harbaugh did that the same year. Both teams did it with rookie QB's. So, the idea that you can't judge yea or nay after a season is not accurate. This is the same stuff people said after DJ's first two seasons, that he hadn't been given enough time. Well, there are subtle but obvious examples to demonstrate people aren't going down the right path to rebuild. And I'm referring to taking a RB 9th overall at the beginning of a rebuild who can't start for you. Nothing against CJ, but he wasn't ready at an easily to transition position his rookie season. A seasoned talent evaluator like Nix should know this.

Wannstedt has been a 4-3 guy since entering the NFL. He'll be tasked with coaching the ILB's, who both function much differently than a MLB. The defense and offense need serious help at the marquee positions, OT and DE/DT. Dareus would be the guy who could work in both a 4-3 and 3-4, but he'll be long gone. I get the impression Buddy wants out of 3 because the prospects don't line up with Buffalo's significant needs. If they want a 5 technique, it's not good value at 3.

I'm amazed Nix and SD used only one pick in the top 3 rounds from 2001-08 on an OT, that being Marcus McNeill. I wonder if Nix even values the position as much as some of us, given that LT and RT are the two most important OL positions. What's scary is the depth at QB behind Fitzpatrick. Protecting him with a bargain bin pickup via UDFA, low cost UFA, late round pick or former practice squad type on his 4th team in three years wouldn't seem prudent. Then again, I think Nix thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and can find OT's anywhere during the season in case something happens.

I love it when posters who don't agree with someone's negative opinion on the Bills simply resort to attacking the person and not the opinion. Of course, it's fun when someone associated with the NFL says something so ridiculously wrong about the Bills that a poster chimes in and says because posters aren't NFL'ers that we're automatically wrong. Which one applies here?

Buffalo Bills drafts 2000-2008: "Hey, we're not as bad as Detroit!" Is that what you're trying to say? Even the owner admitted last December that their drafts had been "terrible."

I'm sure you're right regarding Whaley. And perhaps there's something to be said for engaging the not-so hardcore fans at events like that State of the Bills function this past week. They make up a significant portion of the fan base. Heck, 4 years ago it was a press conference where Marv spoke, minus fan attendance, so they're using it for the right reasons. And yeah, I can understand the offensive theme present at an event like this. Talking about 5 technique DE's and WILB's probably wouldn't go over that well. Still, if they finish with less than 8 wins, I'm not sure they're going to have much confidence after 2+ seasons of rebuilding. JMO.

Third overall picks from 03-08: 2008 Matt Ryan 2007 Joe Thomas 2006 Vince Young 2005 Braylon Edwards 2004 Larry Fitzgerald 2003 Andre Johnson Vince Young didn't pan out, and there were some guys before 03 who didn't either, but picking third means the player becomes one of the best at their position. With 5 out of 6 guys having met that criteria, it should not be out of the question in 2011 for Buffalo. Nix and Gailey talk about not wanting to pick 3rd again, but if they're going to improve (and that's no guarantee) then they need to strike gold with their top picks. And for a team with 0 Pro Bowl starters from 2010, it has to start with this decision. Just an above average player isn't going to cut it. The league is predicated on having a few stars with a great supporting cast. Buffalo has no stars and an inferior supporting cast, at least as of right now.

In the 10 minutes of comments I saw Nix deliver, he didn't speak about defense much if at all. I'm not sure if that's a sign, but it's clear they've got to get the front 7 improved immediately. Still, this franchise knows ticket sales and their reputation aren't very good, so a signature guy needs to come in. OTOH, Nix understands that drafting a Newton or Gabbert opens the door for people to say it was RW and/or his people prodding them in that direction. There's a lot of maneuvering going on right now, as is the case every year. No matter what, they cannot afford to bust on this 3rd overall pick. Doing so sets the franchise back about 3 years and probably ends Nix' time as a GM within 2.

Great job Steve.

So in other words, the labor pains are what we're hyping and the baby will eventually come? I guess Nix and Gailey are the anti-Marv/DJ/Brandon triumvirate that royally screwed things up, so they're still getting a pass on many decisions. OTOH, if Buddy and Chan don't get Buffalo to 8-9 wins this season, it's going to get ugly.

Listening to Buddy at the State of the Bills I don't get a warm and fuzzy there's got a long term rebuilding plan. Granted it was a pep rally for fans, but it's not comforting to hear they're talking up Erik Pears as the starting RT. This is a guy on his fourth team in 3 seasons. They have major issues on the DL, and their LB's are bottom of the barrel as well. I have no doubt Buddy can be a solid national scout. But the jury's out on whether or not he's capable of molding a plan to rebuild and then carrying it out. I think he's been promoted beyond his skill set, but only time will tell.

The Bills need a long term answer at QB, but taking one for the sake of taking one is wrong as well. I would hope the talent evaluators are left to pick the best player at a position of need, and not forced into taking a QB. It's one thing to bust on a 8th-12th pick, but doing so in the top 5 takes a lot to recover from. Newton and Gabbert have issues that most top-5 drafted QB's don't have. Then again, Nix may not have a choice but to pick a QB.

I think the OP makes good observations about certain players. The Bills roster is very weak and still in need of a lot more talent, which the GM and HC admit. Unfortunately, they have very little idea what they're doing defensively, either 4-3 or 3-4 despite what the GM and HC say, which makes for interesting personnel decisions. They have two many guys who can play in either/or defense, not both. Offensively, they need real NFL OT's, not projects, UDFA's, or garbage UFA's at the line's 2 most important positions. They struggle to defend the run and run the ball. Not much has changed since DJ was axed. It's okay to be a fan and complain about a team that's gone 11 seasons without a playoff appearance and has all of 1 winning season in that time. It's fine if some want to be blatant homers and never question OBD, but with their track record, almost everything should be questioned.

Buffalo is in no-man's land considering their needs. There isn't a franchise QB available a la Ryan, Stafford, or Bradford. There isn't a top notch LT, and being a 3-4, I don't think they want to pay a 5 tech or ROLB #3 money. Being that this is the NFL, I think they'll place a priority on spending big dollars on (generally) the most highly paid position. And I'd say they're looking hard at Newton if he's available.

Not only this, but Buddy Nix' credibility needs to be called into question. Last year he said the OL would be a major area to improve and they did jack there. Now, he's admitted that the NFL's 32nd ranked run defense needs help. Drafting Peterson would probably constitute a BPA, but does nothing to improve their porous rush D. Oh, and for history's sake, SD used their top pick during Butler/Smith/Nix' first year on a RB. Guy's a HOF'er. In their second draft, they used a top 5 pick on a, wait for it...a CB. Back then, it took them 3 full seasons and 4 off-seasons to rebuild (2001-04). I'm not sure with a drafting strategy to take BPA no matter what that they'll even rebuild that quickly.

Owners wanted 1B off the top, and eventually negotiated down to 325M of that pool. So no, the 9B wasn't halved toward players and owners. OTOH, the owner's offer was made at noon on Friday, and the players countered with demanding to see audited financials at 4PM or thereabouts. A constant theme in these negotiations is the players as partners, for which I do not agree. De Smith has been preaching this since the time he took over in 2009, but it's his trial lawyer contentious overtones which need to be analyzed for what they are-a prelude to what we have now. Players assume a physical risk playing this game. Regardless, I don't see that translating into being full or less than majority partners in the NFL, which is why I don't side with their "right" to see financial records as a requirement to continue negotiating.

First, teams had to spend above the salary floor in 2009, and all of them did. Second, those 31 teams plus the Packers offered via their negotiators, the chance for the players to take 50% of the potential 9 billion dollar revenue pool. If that's not good enough, then this thing is going to drag out for months, because the owners aren't revealing their numbers.

Partners dispute? Seriously? What business is it of the players to know what each individual franchise earns? When the players were offered 50% of that 9 billion money pool and rejected it, this became more than any sort of "dispute." The players demanded to see the books because it's the coup de grace when it comes to current and future labor negotiations with the NFL.

Labor agreements are never black and white, but the previous CBA signed in 2006 called for 59.6% of a certain revenue pool to go to players. It wasn't all of league revenues, but significant enough to move the league's salary cap from approximately 85M in 2006 to 128M by 2009. The NFL was willing to go to 50% of revenues, or 4.5B to go to players and the NFLPA rejected it. The PA's insistence on having team financial records for the past 10 years is unreasonable and nothing the NFL would ever agree to. I guess the PA is banking on Judge Doty to rule in their favor, but the idea that 50% of league revenues (which BTW would have increased the cap to 161M IIRC) is not enough remains absurd to me.