BillsVet

Pittsburgh is practically the gold standard for drafting well. They actually take 34 OLB's high and while they're a little older defensively, Simon has pointed out they play with a lot of power. I see guys on Buffalo who are of similar size but don't dominate the LOS like Keisel, Harrison and Woodley can and do. Buddy's first draft is nowhere close to as good as a typical Pittsburgh draft. For one, he drafted a RB in the first round despite bigger needs all over the field. And neither the 2nd or 3rd round picks are really getting better but more like in a holding pattern. Frankly, I don't understand why Buddy Nix has all this draft credibility that some have ascribed to him because he was in SD. I highly doubt Kevin Colbert would use a top 10 pick, not that they've had one since 2000, on an undersized back to begin a rebuild.

Sure, in different eras there have been franchises with worse records. But since free agency in its current form began 1993, few franchises can show a worse record. The idea was to have some parity and more teams have the chance to be successful. The Bills organization have re-defined how not to be a winning franchise. The playoff drought began in 2000 and Buffalo is a cumulative 75-114 for a .397 winning percentage during these 11+ seasons. And in the past 3 seasons it sinks to 15-30, or winning 1 of 3. Losing two-thirds of your games the past three seasons and 60% of them is epically bad.

Don't forget street free agents. That's Buffalo's other source for building the roster.

Based on what? Jackson's back next year at RB, putting Spiller back as a rotational guy. Troup hasn't shown anything and now is dealing with a (admittedly not as serious) spinal fracture. Carrington's role was taken by Dareus, and Dwan Edwards play means if the Bills stay a 3-4 team, he's back on the bench when Williams returns. If they go 4-3, he might be a base 43 end, but I'm not sure his size translates there either. Easley is a complete unknown, and the other remaining draftees from 2010 are Moats and Batten who barely get on the field anymore. That draft class isn't looking good no matter how you slice it.

Gregg Williams was 17-31, Mularkey 14-18, Jauron 24-33, and Gailey is 9-20 deep into his second season. The first two guys have either returned to or become solid coordinators in the NFL, DJ inexplicably got another DC job, and Gailey was out of the NFL for almost a decade. It's beyond reason how a team can be so bad for so long without a bad front office. It's easy to blame coaching and players, but the behind the scenes people remain at the heart of their dysfunction. Whoever is running the team for RW, be it Littmann or Brandon, seems to have taken a calculated approach to all of this. I just don't think they're fooling people anymore.

The Bills are in a solidly football town and attract fans from a wide area. Jacksonville isn't and never was going to be. Despite what the new Jaguars owner says, he didn't buy the team for it to lose money or break even. He'll move them within 3 years. OTOH, Buffalo has pursued high profits at the expense of the football team's on-field success. Take the 2010 season, in which the Bills went 4-12, lost 11k season tickets off 2009 and still made nearly 41M in operating profit. If recent trends continue, the season ticket base will continue to shrink and the Bills will find ways to spend less. They'll probably be right at the salary floor in 2012 and rake in their TV money in the continued quest to maximize revenues in anticipation of a sale. I just don't think the solid Bills fans are buying what OBD is selling anymore, i.e. that they're trying to win and are close.

Taking an OT may not be the flashy pick, but a good one makes the offense better. A good one gives his QB more time to throw, which is something that opens up the playbook. Watching the Bills offense with all these short drops made them predictable and the league figured them out about two months ago. Of course, OT's don't sell tickets, and the Bills haven't taken an OT in the first or second since 2002.

Not being the absolute worst is no consolation and seeing as how the league is set up for all teams to compete, it's amazing how mediocre they've remained for this long. I'm amazed that a team that started 5-2 and then went 0-6 is readily accepted because someone is worse.

Buddy Nix has proven time and again that OT's can be found in the late rounds, off the street, and from other team's practice squads. The first round is where you take the fastest and excitin' running backs. I see the Bills using the draft once again to replace a departed player (Stevie?) or filling the massive OLB problem they have. Darn that Merriman for not working out!

The Bills HC job was not one that many people were interested in not 2 years ago. The list declining interviews or withdrawing interest are long: Leslie Frazier, Jim Harbaugh, Ron Rivera, Brian Schottenheimer, and Russ Grimm. After two weeks of being shot down, Nix hired the first guy who'd been a HC in the league (albeit it 10 years before) and who'd accept the job. I can't see Gailey sticking around for a HC job without support Given that Jeff Littmann is running the team into the ground. He (Gailey) will never get the personnel to run his system because it simply costs too much. And if Buddy's rapid rebuild is working, it's definitely hard to tell.

Are you referring to the nature of the CBA which specifies that teams must each spend a certain percentage of the cap toward player salaries? Hard to say, because it seems like they're on a succession of one year plans, all of which feature low player costs. At the same time, Forbes reported the Bills as being in the top 10 of NFL earners with 41M in profit which ranks 8th league-wide. There's other things outstanding as well, like the RWS lease agreement with Erie County that expires before the 2013 season. All I've seen is the Bills hired a stadium architect to come up with a cost of remodeling RWS with more boxes, etc. I'm sure this will be the precursor to negotiations for extending the stadium lease which the club probably wants the government to pay for.

Great thread OP. Everything suggests the family has taken over and are setting the team up for sale. When they struggled to find a GM and HC not two years ago that was evidence enough to me that no one wanted to work for them. Given the prestige of being a NFL GM or HC, the only thing I conclude is that people know what's happening at OBD and avoid it like the plague. That is, unless you're desperate to get back into the NFL and don't mind a Jeff Littmann cutting your personnel budget and Jim Overdorf trading your players.

The question was "What happens if they can't re-sign Steve Johnson" and I replied with what I see happening. Buffalo hasn't used the franchise tag on anyone since Nate Clements during the 2006 season, and granted there weren't a lot of players they could have applied it to, but I don't get the sense they will tag Johnson. Just a hunch, but they're going to talk about the young unproven types when Johnson leaves. And if that's the case, I can see them spending a high pick on a WR to appease fans. In recent memory they've used the draft to fill holes created by allowing veterans to leave, thereby cutting costs. JMO.

I guess they pocket more in operating profit. Johnson leaves for greener pastures, the Bills draft a WR who they expect to immediately start while talking up Marcus Easley as being able to replace Johnson.

We're not talking about the 2011 Colts. We're talking about the 2008 Patriots who had a 3 win drop-off from your totally arbitrary figure. They did enough with a backup QB to make the playoffs and for the first time in forever didn't make the playoffs with 11 wins. I never said I wanted someone to provide the value of Jackson, just someone who was a reliable back. You know, like when the Cowgirls lose Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray, a third round pick more than fills in. RB's aren't that valuable, and if you're not prepared to lose one, it's poor organizational planning. Except Buffalo did have a backup acquired via a high pick who can't come close to the starter. Let's see, the Patriots have started 4 guys this season at center and their line didn't fall apart when Dan Connolly and Dan Koppen went down. How do they do it? And why can't Buffalo have one single guy who's snapped the ball at the NFL level behind Wood. Organizational planning again! Demetrius Bell is an injury waiting to happen and anyone can see that. Chris Hairston is a rookie who's not cut out to play OLT in the NFL, yet there he was starting when Bell predictably went down. They haven't seriously addressed the OT position in years and this is what you get when weak players go up against NFL DE's and ROLB's. I guess Ralph is right, you've got to have luck on your side to be successful. If not, you're screwed.

Merriman was picked up off waivers. Pears was a street FA signed late in 2010. These acquisitions are very much different than signing someone off the open market during the first 2 weeks of free agency when the new league year starts.

No kidding. It remains an exercise in futility, and it wouldn't surprise me if they did less than in previous years with season ticket sales probably declining significantly. 2009 UFA: Drayton Florence, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrell Owens, and Geoff Hangartner. I'd argue they're spending less in UFA each year.

The Patriots lost their best player in 2008 and still managed to go 11-5. His replacement has not fared well in KC and may be done as a starter. Let's look closely at the injuries that have hurt Buffalo most: Jackson, Wood, and Kyle Williams. The Bills had a 1st round pick to back up Fred who has underwhelmed. Shouldn't the expectation be that he adequately fill in for Jackson given the hype and praise he received from the staff on draft day 2010? Meanwhile, they had no backup OC on the roster, so of course Wood's injury hurt significantly when they were forced to shuffle the left side of the OL. As for Williams, he was mostly their 1 gap 34 NT, where Dareus is playing, thus forcing Carrington to be LDE. And, they placed immense faith in Merriman not only producing, but remaining healthy at ROLB. Talk about setting yourself up for failure. The Bills are like an individual who lives in hurricane country and refuses to purchase homeowners insurance because it costs too much. When the home is damanged in a storm, he complains that he can't fix it now for lack of funds despite making 7 figures.

The Bills haven't selected an OT in the first three rounds of the draft since big Mike in 2002. There isn't a team in the entire league that doesn't look for their OT's strictly in the late rounds, on other teams' PS, or off the street like Buffalo does. Bell has proven unable to stay healthy, Hairston needs a lot of work physically, and Pears is slightly above replacement level. If that's acceptable to the team, it'll be hard to compete. If Gailey is going to be behind in games and forced to call as many throws as he does, it stands to reason they'll look for better options at both OT positions.

Can't help but remember the Bills went after Tyson Clabo so hard when UFA opened up in February, only to be left waiting at the altar when he re-signed with Atlanta. Pears is definitely a step up from Cornell Green and the other retreads they've had in here like Mansfield Wrotto and Cordaro Howard they tried last year. At the same time, I would hope the plan is not to be content with a Hairston/Pears LT/RT combination for 2012.

He's probably leaving because the baby's due date keeps getting delayed. Brandon's doing a heckuva job so far. 41M profit in 2010 despite being one of the league's smallest franchises and losing 20% of their season ticket base. I'm sure Littmann's proud too.

Only in Buffalo would Demetrius Bell and Chris Hairston count as significant injuries to an offensive line. Meanwhile, the Patriots have started four guys at center this season. It's practically criminal to enter the season with Hairston as your swing tackle and Bell starting given the latter's injury history. Or, not having a backup center. Or expecting your best guard to double as a OLT. The list goes on and on, and we're not even talking about Spencer Johnson having to play OLB when Merriman got hurt. Sense a trend here?

No one's conflating the argument, but rather, I'm pointing out that the roster is and will never be complete enough to win. I used the example of Demetrius Bell as another rookie people wanted to believe in who does not have what it takes to be a good player. He further represents the team-building approach this team undertook when it plays rookies out of sheer desperation because they refuse to acquire depth. This was the case in 2009 when Bell, as an untested 2nd year man with no game experience, was forced into the lineup when a player was cut and another traded. My definition of objectivism is not standing in the middle of the road, able to fall on either side of the debate at a whim. At some point, this supposed "negativity" you speak of should be expected when we're debating the merits of a team now 9-20 in the last 2 seasons and sliding further away from success. You can throw big words out there and seemingly make a statement without really saying anything. The fact remains that this team is going nowhere and shows no sign of doing so anytime soon. Ownership does not support personnel, who clearly have major issues and aren't helping out the mediocre coaching staff with players. Call it negativity, call it whatever, but in my book objectivity is about falling on one side of the debate, not avoiding it and seeking to suppress other's arguments because what they say isn't self-fulfilling.

This kinda destroys that argument of "profitability barely being acceptable compared to league averages." Forbes Bills Profitability The team is being set up for sale, with expenses kept at the bare minimum for the most part. If it weren't for a salary floor, I wouldn't be surprised if Littmann, who controls more than we'll ever know, wouldn't go Rachel Phelps and just slash payroll to nothing. That's all this has been, RW's family getting this team as attractive for sale as it can be. EDIT: It's why the contracts they're handing out typically are low in guaranteed money or have out-clauses, like Fitz' and K. Williams'.

Goodness that's rich. Objectivity? Searcy and Hairston have started less than 8 games combined and you see something there? Let me guess, you saw something in Bell 2 years ago too, didn't you? Is it "slash and burn" to note that this franchise is winning less than 39% of their games for an entire decade with no sign of improvement? BTW, homerism isn't objective either.