BillsVet

Bell, despite all the puff pieces and OL analysis on TBD, is not strong at the point of attack. If it weren't for the myriad of needs, drafting a true OT in the top half of the first round is beyond late. I was going to compare this situation with DJ's in 2008-09, but Gailey didn't just sign his contract. Still, if DJ could keep his job after that 2-8 finish, why can't Chan if he goes 0-9? I think they know in the front office what the options would be if Chan were axed, and it's not good. Then again, those 35 calls a day Buddy got might suggest otherwise.

How about just getting someone who lives up to being "a top five talent evaluator" for a GM?

Fitz has returned to being an erratic and weak armed QB who will occasionally have a very good game. Unfortunately, the man hired to build this team was either fooled or forced to re-sign him to a contract. I expect better from a GM that many on this board called "a top five talent evaluator." That being the case, he's fired and missed on four guys since he becoming GM: Cornell Green, Shawne Merriman, Drayton "Toast" Florence, and Fitzpatrick. I doubt Pears will live up to his modest contract either.

Pears had his worst game of the season, ironically after he signed that extension. FItzpatrick has been awful since his deal was dry as well. It's moves like this which tell me either Overdorf is deciding who'll get extensions, or Nix's pro personnel acumen is all talk. After all, Nix is an expert in pro and amateur personnel, so it stands to reason he wouldn't sign players who aren't very good. Another fallacy perpetuated on TBD is the idea that David Nelson in the slot is very similar to a good pass catching TE. Right. The Bills have invested exactly 0 1st-3rd round picks on the TE position and haven't featured it in their offense in years. While the rest of the NFL is drafting excellent TE's (see the 2010 class) the Bills are telling everyone they don't need to. And while I'd yield they have bigger needs, this has been the case for years. Whether it's Gailey's coaching or Nix's team building philosophy, neither adapt nor change when it's clear they aren't working.

Pears is replacement level and can't handle good rushers off the edge. I find it ironic, provided Hairston isn't hurt, that the team played Bell at all after Hairston started. That is, unless he was so bad they needed to insert another guy in Bell with no future on the team. It would be a huge mistake next season to expect Hairston to play LT given his body type, as he's less nimble than Bell, built like a pear, and not strong at the point of attack. If the Bills had a down field passing game with a QB with an arm to make it happen, a good LT would do wonders. Instead, they're shopping the blue light specials and re-signing guys like Pears and expecting Hairston to be able to start.

George Edwards did not choose to convert to the 34, Buddy Nix did. And that decision forced Buffalo to use lots of personnel resources on moving from the cover two. I don't see a place for Troup anymore with the DL they have. He's depth.

Perhaps, but this doesn't explain why Jim Harbaugh, Russ Grimm, and Ron Rivera wouldn't interview either. Leslie Frazier interviewed and later pulled his name from consideration. I think Marty wouldn't publicly admitted he wanted back in, but Nix wanted someone who wouldn't appear as another "buddy" and who he could get RW to sign off on. Either way, all of this illustrates how foolish it is to expect anyone with a proven reputation to work here as a HC or coordinator.

Brian Schottenheimer of all people won't even interview for the HC job and someone thinks Jeff Fisher would come to Buffalo.

Pittsburgh is practically the gold standard for drafting well. They actually take 34 OLB's high and while they're a little older defensively, Simon has pointed out they play with a lot of power. I see guys on Buffalo who are of similar size but don't dominate the LOS like Keisel, Harrison and Woodley can and do. Buddy's first draft is nowhere close to as good as a typical Pittsburgh draft. For one, he drafted a RB in the first round despite bigger needs all over the field. And neither the 2nd or 3rd round picks are really getting better but more like in a holding pattern. Frankly, I don't understand why Buddy Nix has all this draft credibility that some have ascribed to him because he was in SD. I highly doubt Kevin Colbert would use a top 10 pick, not that they've had one since 2000, on an undersized back to begin a rebuild.

Sure, in different eras there have been franchises with worse records. But since free agency in its current form began 1993, few franchises can show a worse record. The idea was to have some parity and more teams have the chance to be successful. The Bills organization have re-defined how not to be a winning franchise. The playoff drought began in 2000 and Buffalo is a cumulative 75-114 for a .397 winning percentage during these 11+ seasons. And in the past 3 seasons it sinks to 15-30, or winning 1 of 3. Losing two-thirds of your games the past three seasons and 60% of them is epically bad.

Don't forget street free agents. That's Buffalo's other source for building the roster.

Based on what? Jackson's back next year at RB, putting Spiller back as a rotational guy. Troup hasn't shown anything and now is dealing with a (admittedly not as serious) spinal fracture. Carrington's role was taken by Dareus, and Dwan Edwards play means if the Bills stay a 3-4 team, he's back on the bench when Williams returns. If they go 4-3, he might be a base 43 end, but I'm not sure his size translates there either. Easley is a complete unknown, and the other remaining draftees from 2010 are Moats and Batten who barely get on the field anymore. That draft class isn't looking good no matter how you slice it.

Gregg Williams was 17-31, Mularkey 14-18, Jauron 24-33, and Gailey is 9-20 deep into his second season. The first two guys have either returned to or become solid coordinators in the NFL, DJ inexplicably got another DC job, and Gailey was out of the NFL for almost a decade. It's beyond reason how a team can be so bad for so long without a bad front office. It's easy to blame coaching and players, but the behind the scenes people remain at the heart of their dysfunction. Whoever is running the team for RW, be it Littmann or Brandon, seems to have taken a calculated approach to all of this. I just don't think they're fooling people anymore.

The Bills are in a solidly football town and attract fans from a wide area. Jacksonville isn't and never was going to be. Despite what the new Jaguars owner says, he didn't buy the team for it to lose money or break even. He'll move them within 3 years. OTOH, Buffalo has pursued high profits at the expense of the football team's on-field success. Take the 2010 season, in which the Bills went 4-12, lost 11k season tickets off 2009 and still made nearly 41M in operating profit. If recent trends continue, the season ticket base will continue to shrink and the Bills will find ways to spend less. They'll probably be right at the salary floor in 2012 and rake in their TV money in the continued quest to maximize revenues in anticipation of a sale. I just don't think the solid Bills fans are buying what OBD is selling anymore, i.e. that they're trying to win and are close.

Taking an OT may not be the flashy pick, but a good one makes the offense better. A good one gives his QB more time to throw, which is something that opens up the playbook. Watching the Bills offense with all these short drops made them predictable and the league figured them out about two months ago. Of course, OT's don't sell tickets, and the Bills haven't taken an OT in the first or second since 2002.

Not being the absolute worst is no consolation and seeing as how the league is set up for all teams to compete, it's amazing how mediocre they've remained for this long. I'm amazed that a team that started 5-2 and then went 0-6 is readily accepted because someone is worse.

Buddy Nix has proven time and again that OT's can be found in the late rounds, off the street, and from other team's practice squads. The first round is where you take the fastest and excitin' running backs. I see the Bills using the draft once again to replace a departed player (Stevie?) or filling the massive OLB problem they have. Darn that Merriman for not working out!

The Bills HC job was not one that many people were interested in not 2 years ago. The list declining interviews or withdrawing interest are long: Leslie Frazier, Jim Harbaugh, Ron Rivera, Brian Schottenheimer, and Russ Grimm. After two weeks of being shot down, Nix hired the first guy who'd been a HC in the league (albeit it 10 years before) and who'd accept the job. I can't see Gailey sticking around for a HC job without support Given that Jeff Littmann is running the team into the ground. He (Gailey) will never get the personnel to run his system because it simply costs too much. And if Buddy's rapid rebuild is working, it's definitely hard to tell.

Are you referring to the nature of the CBA which specifies that teams must each spend a certain percentage of the cap toward player salaries? Hard to say, because it seems like they're on a succession of one year plans, all of which feature low player costs. At the same time, Forbes reported the Bills as being in the top 10 of NFL earners with 41M in profit which ranks 8th league-wide. There's other things outstanding as well, like the RWS lease agreement with Erie County that expires before the 2013 season. All I've seen is the Bills hired a stadium architect to come up with a cost of remodeling RWS with more boxes, etc. I'm sure this will be the precursor to negotiations for extending the stadium lease which the club probably wants the government to pay for.

Great thread OP. Everything suggests the family has taken over and are setting the team up for sale. When they struggled to find a GM and HC not two years ago that was evidence enough to me that no one wanted to work for them. Given the prestige of being a NFL GM or HC, the only thing I conclude is that people know what's happening at OBD and avoid it like the plague. That is, unless you're desperate to get back into the NFL and don't mind a Jeff Littmann cutting your personnel budget and Jim Overdorf trading your players.

The question was "What happens if they can't re-sign Steve Johnson" and I replied with what I see happening. Buffalo hasn't used the franchise tag on anyone since Nate Clements during the 2006 season, and granted there weren't a lot of players they could have applied it to, but I don't get the sense they will tag Johnson. Just a hunch, but they're going to talk about the young unproven types when Johnson leaves. And if that's the case, I can see them spending a high pick on a WR to appease fans. In recent memory they've used the draft to fill holes created by allowing veterans to leave, thereby cutting costs. JMO.

I guess they pocket more in operating profit. Johnson leaves for greener pastures, the Bills draft a WR who they expect to immediately start while talking up Marcus Easley as being able to replace Johnson.

We're not talking about the 2011 Colts. We're talking about the 2008 Patriots who had a 3 win drop-off from your totally arbitrary figure. They did enough with a backup QB to make the playoffs and for the first time in forever didn't make the playoffs with 11 wins. I never said I wanted someone to provide the value of Jackson, just someone who was a reliable back. You know, like when the Cowgirls lose Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray, a third round pick more than fills in. RB's aren't that valuable, and if you're not prepared to lose one, it's poor organizational planning. Except Buffalo did have a backup acquired via a high pick who can't come close to the starter. Let's see, the Patriots have started 4 guys this season at center and their line didn't fall apart when Dan Connolly and Dan Koppen went down. How do they do it? And why can't Buffalo have one single guy who's snapped the ball at the NFL level behind Wood. Organizational planning again! Demetrius Bell is an injury waiting to happen and anyone can see that. Chris Hairston is a rookie who's not cut out to play OLT in the NFL, yet there he was starting when Bell predictably went down. They haven't seriously addressed the OT position in years and this is what you get when weak players go up against NFL DE's and ROLB's. I guess Ralph is right, you've got to have luck on your side to be successful. If not, you're screwed.

Merriman was picked up off waivers. Pears was a street FA signed late in 2010. These acquisitions are very much different than signing someone off the open market during the first 2 weeks of free agency when the new league year starts.

No kidding. It remains an exercise in futility, and it wouldn't surprise me if they did less than in previous years with season ticket sales probably declining significantly. 2009 UFA: Drayton Florence, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrell Owens, and Geoff Hangartner. I'd argue they're spending less in UFA each year.