BillsVet

For those thinking there'd be big changes this year, I guess not. Continuity in 2008-09 as the excuse has been changed to patience 2011-12. The result just happens to be the same or worse.

I never said upgraded, I said a replacement was available who was not a complete drop off the cliff from the starter to the backup. The run defense, much like an offense, is a team thing. Williams isn't the only guy on that DL or the defense as a whole and he definitely isn't the problem. My point remains that a 34 defense needs a different type of player and playing Williams as a 1 gap NT in a 34 is forcing a square peg into a round hole. The Bills defense doesn't have the horses to run a 34 or a 43 at this point. Play Williams as a 1 or 3 tech in a 4-3 and complement him with a decent pass rush and this team is far better defensively.

There ain't nothing on Indianapolis' bench coming as close to filling Manning's shoes compared to Buffalo's situation at RB. Running backs like Jackson, while never fully replaced, aren't as hard to fill in for as an All-Pro caliber QB. I would further add that the loss of Williams allowed Dareus to play a position he's been okay in, thus providing a more than serviceable replacement. While I'd like to have Williams, he's miscast in a 34 and won't ever be the space-eater they need. As for Wood (not mentioned) it'd be easier to offset his loss had the team planned to have someone on the roster who, you know, had actually snapped the ball in the NFL before.

Unless Spiller becomes an All-Pro, drafting a RB with the first pick of a rebuild is not a "sound plan" executed poorly. It is a poor plan executed poorly with little forward thinking considering that trends show teams who can pass and rush the passer are making the playoffs. Hybrid backs like Spiller, while a part of the modern game, aren't drafted this high, especially when the team had huge holes at QB, OT, and OLB.

32 NFL teams build through the draft. That's nothing new. Difference is, some just complete the job while others continue on the treadmill of mediocrity. And some teams, like the Steelers, Patriots, and Packers haven't bottomed out in years, turn their roster over, and continue winning. Having the same philosophy as successful teams doesn't mean Buffalo is set up to achieve the results those teams do. Levy, Brandon, and Nix all tried to build through the draft. The first two failed, the jury is still out on NIx, and the 2010 draft is looking very much like the first two GM's attempts.

Levy and Brandon were made GM, and both Modrak and Guy kept their jobs. How Modrak survived working for 3 GM's is beyond me, but it wouldn't surprise me if Whaley is made GM and Gailey stays around for another year. Remember, it was RW who fired DJ, not Brandon the GM at the time. Most teams' GM fire the HC. Walker signed a 5 year 25M dollar deal in March 2007.

Management has more influence on the roster than the coaching staff. And right now management has ulterior motives which significantly impact how the roster is constructed. Whaley isn't going anywhere either. You don't get promoted only to change organizations less than 12 months later.

This. I don't think anyone figured Nix would be around long. He'd have time to right the ship (which obviously never happened) and give way to a younger man. Whaley's promotion earlier this year and the fact he was already on-board seemed like a precursor to Nix being only temporary. At least Buddy told some great whoppers to keep us entertained. He certainly didn't get much in the way of wins.

IIRC, John Wawrow reported the Bills would not be franchising Johnson. This remains the most misleading metric to grade an OL. It is indicative of nothing more than Fitzpatrick getting rid of the ball on designed plays where the ball is out in less than 2 seconds. Even Erik Pears can't mess that up. Cue the OBD spin machine of Brandon and Berchtold, who no doubt are in high gear to explain why they couldn't come to terms. Negotiation is a two-way street and by the tone of this thread it doesn't appear that fans are buying the BS launched out of OBD. Sure it's anecdotal, but I don't talk to many fans at the games who want to see Johnson go. Commitment to no commitment but setting the team up for sale. Re-signing SJ adversely affects the P&L statement, so that's a no go for the franchise. The more things change...

I don't see Jackson going to go Shaun Alexander on this team now that he's 30. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on him for his age, though I wouldn't give him a large 5 year deal, but perhaps 3 years at 6-7M per. Contracts aren't for past performance, but what a player will provide in the future.

I remember when people said that after Marv Levy promised not to franchise Nate Clements that it would be wrong to do it for the 2007 season. Well, we know what happened and Marv remained true to his word. Flash forward to present day and Jackson noted that Nix said they'd take care of him. I would hope, regardless of what happens, that Nix lives up to his promise if it indeed was made. There is no justification for not finding the money to keep your best offensive player.

You don't wait until the off-season before a player's contract expires to re-up them. Nate Clements should have proven that quite well, because the cost only rises the closer it gets. The player just gets too much leverage as they approach UFA. I mentioned Levitre specifically, because he's been their rock on the OL for the past 2 seasons. Byrd's play has improved, although not to the level Levitre's has. And Jackson isn't signing anything incentive laden because he's proven he can be a workhorse all-purpose back in the league. Forward planning is a hallmark of successful teams, especially re-signing players who are improving. It's up to the front office to identify those types and do it for less than it'll take when their deal is about to expire. Best example of this was Marv/Overdorf doing this in the summer of 2006 when Peters got a significant raise when they realized he'd be their starting RT.

Great thread OP. I would only add that the Bills have predominantly used the last 6 drafts to address significant needs at the expense of building elsewhere. A player is cut, no replacement is available, and they draft the new guy. How can anyone expect, even with a good draft record, for this model to work successfully especially that they're reluctant to sign their own? If Johnson departs and a receiver is drafted either 1st or 2nd, how can anyone say the team is building anymore? The late Jim Kelley once described the Bills as, like you say, being built for entertainment. I'm paraphrasing, but these past few seasons are reason enough to believe there is no other pursuit by this team than to sell tickets and merchandise. Winning is a costly venture, but as RW says, you've got to have luck. If that's the case, they need a few more rainbows. EDIT: I'm constantly amazed at the reasons thrown out to not sign your own players. It seems there's a concerted effort to demean certain players who will demand big dollars. First there was P. Williams, then Fletcher, Spikes, Greer, and Peters. Now it's Stevie. Ironic how all were in line for decent sized contracts and that there was an overwhelming reason for not keeping them.

Florence, like Aaron Williams, fits with the physical type of CB Nix wants on the defense. I'm not typically a BN supporter, but they definitely didn't give him a 3 year deal averaging 5M per to be a nickel. That said, the nickel CB job is evolving to cover more TE's, so playing the slot isn't always the team's 3rd best CB there. And for the record, playing a defensive lineman at OLB is worlds different than moving CB's around.

Levitre is due a contract extension and remains their best lineman, despite playing 3 positions this season. If he gets the Pro Bowl nod he's due, the Bills better plan on paying him. I watched him stone his man on Spiller's run, opening up the lane you reference Bill. I think it's funny that Buffalo has never become a playoff team, but they've got a lot of guys coming up for extensions, Jackson, Levitre, Stevie, and Byrd. Chandler is a secondary target, but JIm Overdorf is going to have his work cut out for him. Remember, he only negotiates one contract at a time, and only when Littmann opens up RW's piggy bank.

All due respect, but if I'm taking a WR top ten I want more than an intermediate target even if I have a QB who can complete passes beyond 20 yards. And if Steve Johnson is gone, I'd rather replace him with a free agent that's got some experience in the league. I do like the concept of taking a TE high because they guys they have are either JAG's or players who should be in the UFL.

To point 1, I don't think there's a better example of this than the Evans trade. We'll never know how much influence Nix has, but it's safe to say he's not telling Jeff Littmann not to spend on free agents. I'd give him a C- at this point, but that's riding on Dareus and A. Williams who appear to be good players. His UFA acquisitions have been about the same, buoyed only by the Barnett and Dwan Edwards signings.

Bell, despite all the puff pieces and OL analysis on TBD, is not strong at the point of attack. If it weren't for the myriad of needs, drafting a true OT in the top half of the first round is beyond late. I was going to compare this situation with DJ's in 2008-09, but Gailey didn't just sign his contract. Still, if DJ could keep his job after that 2-8 finish, why can't Chan if he goes 0-9? I think they know in the front office what the options would be if Chan were axed, and it's not good. Then again, those 35 calls a day Buddy got might suggest otherwise.

How about just getting someone who lives up to being "a top five talent evaluator" for a GM?

Fitz has returned to being an erratic and weak armed QB who will occasionally have a very good game. Unfortunately, the man hired to build this team was either fooled or forced to re-sign him to a contract. I expect better from a GM that many on this board called "a top five talent evaluator." That being the case, he's fired and missed on four guys since he becoming GM: Cornell Green, Shawne Merriman, Drayton "Toast" Florence, and Fitzpatrick. I doubt Pears will live up to his modest contract either.

Pears had his worst game of the season, ironically after he signed that extension. FItzpatrick has been awful since his deal was dry as well. It's moves like this which tell me either Overdorf is deciding who'll get extensions, or Nix's pro personnel acumen is all talk. After all, Nix is an expert in pro and amateur personnel, so it stands to reason he wouldn't sign players who aren't very good. Another fallacy perpetuated on TBD is the idea that David Nelson in the slot is very similar to a good pass catching TE. Right. The Bills have invested exactly 0 1st-3rd round picks on the TE position and haven't featured it in their offense in years. While the rest of the NFL is drafting excellent TE's (see the 2010 class) the Bills are telling everyone they don't need to. And while I'd yield they have bigger needs, this has been the case for years. Whether it's Gailey's coaching or Nix's team building philosophy, neither adapt nor change when it's clear they aren't working.

Pears is replacement level and can't handle good rushers off the edge. I find it ironic, provided Hairston isn't hurt, that the team played Bell at all after Hairston started. That is, unless he was so bad they needed to insert another guy in Bell with no future on the team. It would be a huge mistake next season to expect Hairston to play LT given his body type, as he's less nimble than Bell, built like a pear, and not strong at the point of attack. If the Bills had a down field passing game with a QB with an arm to make it happen, a good LT would do wonders. Instead, they're shopping the blue light specials and re-signing guys like Pears and expecting Hairston to be able to start.

George Edwards did not choose to convert to the 34, Buddy Nix did. And that decision forced Buffalo to use lots of personnel resources on moving from the cover two. I don't see a place for Troup anymore with the DL they have. He's depth.

Perhaps, but this doesn't explain why Jim Harbaugh, Russ Grimm, and Ron Rivera wouldn't interview either. Leslie Frazier interviewed and later pulled his name from consideration. I think Marty wouldn't publicly admitted he wanted back in, but Nix wanted someone who wouldn't appear as another "buddy" and who he could get RW to sign off on. Either way, all of this illustrates how foolish it is to expect anyone with a proven reputation to work here as a HC or coordinator.

Brian Schottenheimer of all people won't even interview for the HC job and someone thinks Jeff Fisher would come to Buffalo.