BillsVet

I don't see Jackson going to go Shaun Alexander on this team now that he's 30. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on him for his age, though I wouldn't give him a large 5 year deal, but perhaps 3 years at 6-7M per. Contracts aren't for past performance, but what a player will provide in the future.

I remember when people said that after Marv Levy promised not to franchise Nate Clements that it would be wrong to do it for the 2007 season. Well, we know what happened and Marv remained true to his word. Flash forward to present day and Jackson noted that Nix said they'd take care of him. I would hope, regardless of what happens, that Nix lives up to his promise if it indeed was made. There is no justification for not finding the money to keep your best offensive player.

You don't wait until the off-season before a player's contract expires to re-up them. Nate Clements should have proven that quite well, because the cost only rises the closer it gets. The player just gets too much leverage as they approach UFA. I mentioned Levitre specifically, because he's been their rock on the OL for the past 2 seasons. Byrd's play has improved, although not to the level Levitre's has. And Jackson isn't signing anything incentive laden because he's proven he can be a workhorse all-purpose back in the league. Forward planning is a hallmark of successful teams, especially re-signing players who are improving. It's up to the front office to identify those types and do it for less than it'll take when their deal is about to expire. Best example of this was Marv/Overdorf doing this in the summer of 2006 when Peters got a significant raise when they realized he'd be their starting RT.

Great thread OP. I would only add that the Bills have predominantly used the last 6 drafts to address significant needs at the expense of building elsewhere. A player is cut, no replacement is available, and they draft the new guy. How can anyone expect, even with a good draft record, for this model to work successfully especially that they're reluctant to sign their own? If Johnson departs and a receiver is drafted either 1st or 2nd, how can anyone say the team is building anymore? The late Jim Kelley once described the Bills as, like you say, being built for entertainment. I'm paraphrasing, but these past few seasons are reason enough to believe there is no other pursuit by this team than to sell tickets and merchandise. Winning is a costly venture, but as RW says, you've got to have luck. If that's the case, they need a few more rainbows. EDIT: I'm constantly amazed at the reasons thrown out to not sign your own players. It seems there's a concerted effort to demean certain players who will demand big dollars. First there was P. Williams, then Fletcher, Spikes, Greer, and Peters. Now it's Stevie. Ironic how all were in line for decent sized contracts and that there was an overwhelming reason for not keeping them.

Florence, like Aaron Williams, fits with the physical type of CB Nix wants on the defense. I'm not typically a BN supporter, but they definitely didn't give him a 3 year deal averaging 5M per to be a nickel. That said, the nickel CB job is evolving to cover more TE's, so playing the slot isn't always the team's 3rd best CB there. And for the record, playing a defensive lineman at OLB is worlds different than moving CB's around.

Levitre is due a contract extension and remains their best lineman, despite playing 3 positions this season. If he gets the Pro Bowl nod he's due, the Bills better plan on paying him. I watched him stone his man on Spiller's run, opening up the lane you reference Bill. I think it's funny that Buffalo has never become a playoff team, but they've got a lot of guys coming up for extensions, Jackson, Levitre, Stevie, and Byrd. Chandler is a secondary target, but JIm Overdorf is going to have his work cut out for him. Remember, he only negotiates one contract at a time, and only when Littmann opens up RW's piggy bank.

All due respect, but if I'm taking a WR top ten I want more than an intermediate target even if I have a QB who can complete passes beyond 20 yards. And if Steve Johnson is gone, I'd rather replace him with a free agent that's got some experience in the league. I do like the concept of taking a TE high because they guys they have are either JAG's or players who should be in the UFL.

To point 1, I don't think there's a better example of this than the Evans trade. We'll never know how much influence Nix has, but it's safe to say he's not telling Jeff Littmann not to spend on free agents. I'd give him a C- at this point, but that's riding on Dareus and A. Williams who appear to be good players. His UFA acquisitions have been about the same, buoyed only by the Barnett and Dwan Edwards signings.

Bell, despite all the puff pieces and OL analysis on TBD, is not strong at the point of attack. If it weren't for the myriad of needs, drafting a true OT in the top half of the first round is beyond late. I was going to compare this situation with DJ's in 2008-09, but Gailey didn't just sign his contract. Still, if DJ could keep his job after that 2-8 finish, why can't Chan if he goes 0-9? I think they know in the front office what the options would be if Chan were axed, and it's not good. Then again, those 35 calls a day Buddy got might suggest otherwise.

How about just getting someone who lives up to being "a top five talent evaluator" for a GM?

Fitz has returned to being an erratic and weak armed QB who will occasionally have a very good game. Unfortunately, the man hired to build this team was either fooled or forced to re-sign him to a contract. I expect better from a GM that many on this board called "a top five talent evaluator." That being the case, he's fired and missed on four guys since he becoming GM: Cornell Green, Shawne Merriman, Drayton "Toast" Florence, and Fitzpatrick. I doubt Pears will live up to his modest contract either.

Pears had his worst game of the season, ironically after he signed that extension. FItzpatrick has been awful since his deal was dry as well. It's moves like this which tell me either Overdorf is deciding who'll get extensions, or Nix's pro personnel acumen is all talk. After all, Nix is an expert in pro and amateur personnel, so it stands to reason he wouldn't sign players who aren't very good. Another fallacy perpetuated on TBD is the idea that David Nelson in the slot is very similar to a good pass catching TE. Right. The Bills have invested exactly 0 1st-3rd round picks on the TE position and haven't featured it in their offense in years. While the rest of the NFL is drafting excellent TE's (see the 2010 class) the Bills are telling everyone they don't need to. And while I'd yield they have bigger needs, this has been the case for years. Whether it's Gailey's coaching or Nix's team building philosophy, neither adapt nor change when it's clear they aren't working.

Pears is replacement level and can't handle good rushers off the edge. I find it ironic, provided Hairston isn't hurt, that the team played Bell at all after Hairston started. That is, unless he was so bad they needed to insert another guy in Bell with no future on the team. It would be a huge mistake next season to expect Hairston to play LT given his body type, as he's less nimble than Bell, built like a pear, and not strong at the point of attack. If the Bills had a down field passing game with a QB with an arm to make it happen, a good LT would do wonders. Instead, they're shopping the blue light specials and re-signing guys like Pears and expecting Hairston to be able to start.

George Edwards did not choose to convert to the 34, Buddy Nix did. And that decision forced Buffalo to use lots of personnel resources on moving from the cover two. I don't see a place for Troup anymore with the DL they have. He's depth.

Perhaps, but this doesn't explain why Jim Harbaugh, Russ Grimm, and Ron Rivera wouldn't interview either. Leslie Frazier interviewed and later pulled his name from consideration. I think Marty wouldn't publicly admitted he wanted back in, but Nix wanted someone who wouldn't appear as another "buddy" and who he could get RW to sign off on. Either way, all of this illustrates how foolish it is to expect anyone with a proven reputation to work here as a HC or coordinator.

Brian Schottenheimer of all people won't even interview for the HC job and someone thinks Jeff Fisher would come to Buffalo.

Pittsburgh is practically the gold standard for drafting well. They actually take 34 OLB's high and while they're a little older defensively, Simon has pointed out they play with a lot of power. I see guys on Buffalo who are of similar size but don't dominate the LOS like Keisel, Harrison and Woodley can and do. Buddy's first draft is nowhere close to as good as a typical Pittsburgh draft. For one, he drafted a RB in the first round despite bigger needs all over the field. And neither the 2nd or 3rd round picks are really getting better but more like in a holding pattern. Frankly, I don't understand why Buddy Nix has all this draft credibility that some have ascribed to him because he was in SD. I highly doubt Kevin Colbert would use a top 10 pick, not that they've had one since 2000, on an undersized back to begin a rebuild.

Sure, in different eras there have been franchises with worse records. But since free agency in its current form began 1993, few franchises can show a worse record. The idea was to have some parity and more teams have the chance to be successful. The Bills organization have re-defined how not to be a winning franchise. The playoff drought began in 2000 and Buffalo is a cumulative 75-114 for a .397 winning percentage during these 11+ seasons. And in the past 3 seasons it sinks to 15-30, or winning 1 of 3. Losing two-thirds of your games the past three seasons and 60% of them is epically bad.

Don't forget street free agents. That's Buffalo's other source for building the roster.

Based on what? Jackson's back next year at RB, putting Spiller back as a rotational guy. Troup hasn't shown anything and now is dealing with a (admittedly not as serious) spinal fracture. Carrington's role was taken by Dareus, and Dwan Edwards play means if the Bills stay a 3-4 team, he's back on the bench when Williams returns. If they go 4-3, he might be a base 43 end, but I'm not sure his size translates there either. Easley is a complete unknown, and the other remaining draftees from 2010 are Moats and Batten who barely get on the field anymore. That draft class isn't looking good no matter how you slice it.

Gregg Williams was 17-31, Mularkey 14-18, Jauron 24-33, and Gailey is 9-20 deep into his second season. The first two guys have either returned to or become solid coordinators in the NFL, DJ inexplicably got another DC job, and Gailey was out of the NFL for almost a decade. It's beyond reason how a team can be so bad for so long without a bad front office. It's easy to blame coaching and players, but the behind the scenes people remain at the heart of their dysfunction. Whoever is running the team for RW, be it Littmann or Brandon, seems to have taken a calculated approach to all of this. I just don't think they're fooling people anymore.

The Bills are in a solidly football town and attract fans from a wide area. Jacksonville isn't and never was going to be. Despite what the new Jaguars owner says, he didn't buy the team for it to lose money or break even. He'll move them within 3 years. OTOH, Buffalo has pursued high profits at the expense of the football team's on-field success. Take the 2010 season, in which the Bills went 4-12, lost 11k season tickets off 2009 and still made nearly 41M in operating profit. If recent trends continue, the season ticket base will continue to shrink and the Bills will find ways to spend less. They'll probably be right at the salary floor in 2012 and rake in their TV money in the continued quest to maximize revenues in anticipation of a sale. I just don't think the solid Bills fans are buying what OBD is selling anymore, i.e. that they're trying to win and are close.

Taking an OT may not be the flashy pick, but a good one makes the offense better. A good one gives his QB more time to throw, which is something that opens up the playbook. Watching the Bills offense with all these short drops made them predictable and the league figured them out about two months ago. Of course, OT's don't sell tickets, and the Bills haven't taken an OT in the first or second since 2002.

Not being the absolute worst is no consolation and seeing as how the league is set up for all teams to compete, it's amazing how mediocre they've remained for this long. I'm amazed that a team that started 5-2 and then went 0-6 is readily accepted because someone is worse.

Buddy Nix has proven time and again that OT's can be found in the late rounds, off the street, and from other team's practice squads. The first round is where you take the fastest and excitin' running backs. I see the Bills using the draft once again to replace a departed player (Stevie?) or filling the massive OLB problem they have. Darn that Merriman for not working out!