BillsVet

Buddy Nix does not control the purse strings. At all. If you don't understand that, go on keep believing they'll be signing quality types at 4PM on 3/13. The Bills GM can't even sign his own WR who they've had producing for 2 years. So why would it make sense that they're all of a sudden going to sign other team's free agents? This is a team that gives decent guaranteed money to Chris Kelsay, Shawne Merriman, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't know what's going on with SJ's contract, but they're taking their sweet time. The Detroit contingent has a lot more say in the operation than the GM does. When you understand that, it'll make free agency less of a disappointment.

Nix isn't scared, rather he's working under the restrictions of a team geared more to be sold. Buffalo made nearly 41M in profit during 2010, but I doubt that Nix/Gailey/Whaley, et al are afraid. The front office could improve significantly on draft day and free agency, but when they struggle to sign their own it's not for any other reason than money. Charley Casserly mentioned on his recent interview on WGR that Buffalo struggles to sign their own. When he was Pro Personnel Director for SD, they signed big money guys like David Boston. The dynamic has changed considerably in his role as Buffalo's GM.

2010's (edit: top) draft picks should be outright starters in their 3rd season. Period. Instead they have none, and while Spiller's going to share carries, they didn't get much in rounds 2-3. Those are the places to hit on picks, especially small markets who aren't active in free agency finding quality veteran talent. Troup won't start over Williams or Dareus, and Carrington isn't going to be their base end over the overpaid Chris Kelsay. I remember this board gaga over Levy's first draft when it looked like Whitner, K. Simpson, Butler, Williams, and Ellison would be long term starters. Now, they have 1 of those guys and 3 are out of the league. And I love that a draft can be declared good after 1 season, but if it doesn't look promising (2010) you don't dare say it was below average. If's, hopefully's, and maybe's aren't good enough. 2012 is playoffs or bust and the 2010 draft should be a foundation draft. Instead it features a bunch of spare parts. If the rebuild is going so swimmingly, why does Buffalo have so many needs heading into the personnel acquisition phase of the off-season?

There isn't much margin for error on draft day for NFL teams, whether it's the GM's first or 30th draft. You don't get mulligans for the draft, and when you swing and miss a lot (2005-2008) it hurts the team in the long run. Even batting .500 on 1st-3rd round picks isn't good enough for a small market team that outright brags about not spending in UFA to mitigate their ineptitude on draft day. This team needs a Jerry Reese or Ted Thompson, not someone like Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, or perhaps even Buddy Nix.

Buddy said they received 35 calls a day for the HC job. Buddy said the media reports during the HC search were 80% false. Buddy says a lot of things that are typical hyperbole and lacking substance. As Ramius said above, when he controls the purse strings (currently held tightly by Littmann via Overdorf) I'll believe they're going to be active in UFA. Until that time, Buddy is blowing smoke up fans collective hind quarters. One pass play demonstrates deep accuracy? From 2+ seasons ago? Fitzpatrick deep accuracy If they lose SJ it's a first round pick and a combination of Marcus Easley, David Nelson, Donald Jones, Derek Hagan, and whomever comes cheaply in UFA they can hype.

Carrington bulked up to 304 to play the 5 technique. Bruce cut fat to get down to 270 or so to be a 5 tech 25 years ago. There's a big difference, and it's not a given Carrington can cut muscle. This is the price you pay to jump between defenses 3 times in 4 seasons. Buddy's first draft features 0 starters entering their 3rd NFL season. It's interesting to note that even if you exclude Spiller, the 2nd and 3rd round picks will not start. Where's the value and drafting expertise from Nix? He's the type GM who is so-so on draft day, and the team he works for doesn't spend in UFA to make up for it. So you get a host of UDFA's, street FA's, low round draft picks, and low cost UFA's playing when their draft picks can't.

If you're looking for certainties, taxes and death are your only ones. Sometimes it behooves a franchise to take a calculated risk based on research and experience. The Bills were never going to commit to trading up for even a QB, despite having no long term solution on the roster. They've wedded themselves to a journeyman for at least 2012. The Bills organization hasn't traded down in a draft since Tommy D in 2001, which IIRC, is the longest streak without moving back. Nix is set on his guy and doesn't move up or down, as evidenced by his drafts in 2010 and 2011. It's simply amazing this team has so many starter and depth needs after 2 solid years of rebuilding. Changing defenses has exacerbated the problem as new schemes require new players, while holdovers now have perhaps their 3rd scheme to learn in 4 years. Last year, the Bills became a fortress of solitude and weren't speaking to anyone per Peter King. They practice no subterfuge to convince a likely trade partner they could take their player. And if they could do this, it might get them more value for their pick in a trade. I just don't think Nix is very savvy and draft day indicates that to me.

Are injuries set to on? And if so, do they allow him to play like this? Too bad Merriman's legs won't hold up like Jennings' did in Madden.

How in hades do you know 2 months before the draft?

It is playoffs or bust in 2012. You don't take 3 off-seasons and 48 games to go 8-8 or 9-7. Every player in the draft is unproven. Even Andrew Luck, and I'd deal 2 #1's to get him.

First, the Bills aren't one of the great drafting teams in the NFL. Second, from 2006-11, there have been 7 players drafted in rounds 3-7 who had 5 sacks or more that I could find, 4 of them in 2011: Klug, Houston, Acho, and Pernell McPhee. So in 30 rounds of drafting at 32 picks per, you have 7 guys out of almost 1,000 picks who were adequate or better rushers their first NFL season. And let's say half of those were offensive picks, so that's 7 out of 500. Not very good odds in my book.

You're not finding a situational pass rusher in the mid rounds, for 2012 at least. I can't remember the last time a rookie from rounds 3-5 came in and contributed in that part of the game to the point of improving that area much. A line featuring Kelsay and Carrington as the RDE and LDE respectively generates as much pass rush as their personnel inadequate 3-4 with no OLB's. One of the reasons this team fails in the pass rush game is they're trying to find those players on the cheap or create pressure through scheme. None of it has worked and while I have reservations about hoping a first or second round type is impact from Day 1, it's where you find top pass rushers. There's no sense signing an Abraham type without grooming the next guy. You just don't get pass rushers without spending significant resources on them.

Buffalo doesn't need any 7 or 9 tech DE's at the top of the draft. They need depth at the position because their starters will be perennial pro-bowl DE's Chris Kelsay and Shawne "IR" Merriman. Unless of course they've set their sights on someone in UFA who'll be their RDE and can get to the QB more than once in a blue moon. And this concept of drafting a DT who weighs 300+ to play DE in a 40 front is mind-numbing.

Tagging SJ, even at 9.4M for 2012, also serves to minimize the commitment Buffalo has should the team be put on the market. I realize that's somewhat macabre considering the ownership situation, but I've never felt they have a vision, but rather reflect successive one year plans.

The Bills know how much flack they'll take from this fan base by not keeping SJ. They'll bite the bullet and franchise him to help ST sales and team interest for 2012, even if it means having a possibly disgruntled player making 9.4M up for a deal in 2013.

Where is the homer who asks why the OP doesn't find another team if he's so dissatisfied? As if anyone complaining about a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 12 years and has now forced them to buy another bad game ticket isn't without blame.

For the record, I don't want to be right about the Bills not signing SJ. They need to build a team, not replace pieces year in and year out, or what they've essentially done since TD was fired. It takes a lot of good decisions and eventually money when you draft well to maintain a solid core of players. If the team isn't willing to pay SJ, and we don't know right now, then long term how can anyone expect anything to change? It's merely a ride on the Bills tilt-a-whirl, because they'll sign core player and let another hit UFA. And the fun's just getting started because other key players will come up for extensions in the next 2 seasons: Levitre, Wood, and of course FJ. You may not keep them all, but you oughta to get to them before their peak value to avoid paying premium and losing others. Easier said than done though. If they use the franchise tag, well, there should be a long term plan by the beginning of the regular season to retain his services for multiple seasons or they should trade him. Just tagging him to keep him this season isn't satisfactory either.

Maybe it's been said before, but Russ Brandon has become the Bills version of Baghdad Bob.

He was so effective in those first 5 games the Bills defense yielded only 2,109 yards or 422 per game. If anything, the defense improved from Game 6-16 when they allowed 348.1 yards per game and he was again on the sidelines. This concept that Merriman helped in ways not quantifiable is really reaching. For the money he was paid, he didn't do anything and his contract prevents the team from spending elsewhere.

BR didn't exactly have the best info immediately after the deal was signed: Merriman contract details 10-11 If Buddy is so amazing as a GM, how did he hand out that kind of money to a guy who'd played all of 18 of his previous 48 games and then proceeded to miss the remainder of Buffalo's 2010 season?

Nix tied up millions in Shawne Merriman, who aside from selling some jerseys, has done jack and squat now in the 15 months he's been on Buffalo's roster. As for cap space, all it takes is a signed letter from the owner to get another 21M on top of the reportedly 20-22M (before any roster cuts) to work with.

Yes, free agency is typically underwhelming, but there are some who wish upon a star that Littmann will open RW's piggy bank and let Buddy Nix go Pac Man Jones every year.

He didn't like the city of Buffalo and didn't want to be here. The Bills don't get into bidding wars. CB isn't a huge priority. Routt is overrated and his new team paid too much. You don't build through free agency. Sometimes free agents don't play to their contract, so it's a big risk to sign the higher priced ones. I don't care about Routt, but it's got to be alarming that Buffalo isn't signing as many guys as they have interest in. I think free agency will be a let-down for those believing the Bills will spend money.

There have been few contract extensions in the weeks after the regular season ended for non-playoff teams and even those who went to the SB. At the same time, the WR market does have several options prior to franchise tags being used: Colston, Bowe, V. Jackson, Garcon, Wayne, Stevie, et al. Despite the options, teams still are going to spend big money to get these players now that good WR's have become so important to offensive and thus team success.

The Bills have very little leverage unless they use the tag, which sounds unlikely given the 9.4M tender they would have to pay. In a year where the team can roll over 21M in cap room, I have little doubt anyone would accept losing SJ especially with the team so mediocre the past 12 seasons.