BillsVet

It's a prerequisite this time of year when people realize the TE position is weak. Next thing will be people saying is how a 215# WR can replicate what a 240 pound guy can do in terms of match-ups.

How many good teams have mediocre let alone bad GM's? And how many GM's get to a second chance to rebuild a franchise after their first attempt fails? What has Buddy done to instill any level of confidence that everything will come together now in 2013? It must be May.

Byrd and Parker would not be judged kindly in league circles if they took a deal less than Dashon Goldson's 5 year 41.25M deal with 22M guaranteed. Using that as a baseline and considering Byrd is a better safety, 2M might be a bridge too far. We don't know the nature of the offer or what the player is seeking. I highly doubt Parker will ask for less than what Goldson received and if that's the case, then the agent wants at least 8.25M yearly, but probably more like ~9M per. So the Bills are probably offering ~7M and the agent is balking. Not surprising, but perhaps initial offers. In which case, one would hope this dialogue between sides continues.

I wish you would be more positive.

Crazy as 'ol Buddy on the backroads of Mississip looking for another diamond in the rough. Individual players still don't tell me about a team. Even if the roster is better (and it should be) the record still doesn't illustrate that. Why? The answer, IMO, is simple. Personnel placed into a fluid environment of changing schemes will not produce results. Buddy Nix himself ensured that when he made a few key decisions, namely the defensive scheme change that had guys like Kyle Williams masquerading as a 1/0 tech NT. On offense, he seemed to be building the offensive line for the exact opposite of what Gailey wanted to do. While Nix wanted his 330 pound blockers, Gailey wanted a short quick passing game suitable for his lesser QB's that didn't run the ball from anything but a spread based scheme. And then, they draft their water bug back who wasn't a between the tackles runner. Where is the cohesion there? You can't ever build a team when forcing players into a revolving door or schemes. It doesn't and will not work. Players take time to learn how to play in new alignments, and they certainly aren't set up for success when their talents are not suitable for a scheme.

Sure, fine. But in the NFL, 3 years is an eternity. Looking around the league, teams are rebuilding and doing it for the long haul in 3 seasons. Seattle, Washington, Atlanta, Cincinnati, et al have done it. It's reasonable to expect in the age of free agency that a franchise go from being a division doormat to making the playoffs in 3 years. Why does it take the Bills longer? I look down at the roster and see a big youth movement, many of whom aren't NFL proven. And shouldn't we expect the roster to be better after 4 off-seasons of rebuilding? Four 1st round draft picks, millions of UFA dollars, and plenty of the blue light waiver wire/practice squad signings Buddy is famous for should mean things are better, right?

You mean the one non-personnel men Levy/Brandon and their HC Jauron built versus the Nix/Gailey edition? Let's be real clear here. We were told Buddy would straighten things out and he himself talked about doing it in 3-4 years because that's how long it takes to do it right. Well, we're into the 4th off-season with the 2nd HC, 2nd starting QB, about the 4th defense and expectations (outside of the homerific view) are not high. But I'll answer the question anyway: I'd rather have the 2010 team, minus the absurd decision to switch to a 3-4 (which later brought us the infamous 5-2) in favor of a 4-3. This would have allowed the team to address both sides of the ball, rather than Nix pouring resources into an ill-fated defense which they then scrapped in 2012.

Expectations in 2010 were far different than 2012. Everyone knew Buffalo was rebuilding off the Jauron/Levy/Brandon years and 2010 figured to be a long season. In 2012, expectations were high with Mario signing, the money spent on other players, and the third year of Nix/Gailey. They then fell flat on their face despite the GM talking about taking the next step, i.e. playoffs. As a result, the rebuild which started in 2010 failed by 2012. The evidence comes in the form of a new HC and drafting a new QB in the first round. At this point, which metric would you suggest using, aside from W's and L's, to indicate success or failure? If 2012 (Year 3 of the Nix rebuild) did not result in a playoff season, one can only conclude they didn't meet their goal started when the rebuild started in 2010. Moving the goal posts to re-define success is an argument made out of homer desperation.

No. The part driving people nuts is that Nix is rebuilding off his first rebuild that failed miserably. If you can't see the folly in that I don't know what to tell you. If results are optional, then NIx is your man.

The problem for most in evaluating the LT position remains that success there can't be easily quantified. Whereas every other position on the field has statistics, offensive lineman remain the only group who don't. Sure, PFF or other sites can give grades, but fans aren't typically studying that in-depth. And most barely watch OL play during the course of a game. A team may not need an elite LT like they would a top QB, but no one can argue having a Walter Jones or Orlando Pace is bad. The next question is are they worth the money they'll make? Some here didn't think Peters was worth 10M per, but did credit the Bills for their offer, which I'm not sure was every publicized and was probably around 8.5M. It's still a matchup game and who can win those one on one battles. With pass rushers getting faster, I'd want a LT who can stop that guy from getting in my backfield. It's different now than when Chris Doleman was stymied by Steve Wallace 25 years ago, but the concept is very similar.

My bad on Dareus' deal. As for Peters, that agent didn't tell him to stop working out during the off-season, but the holdout was their big leverage against the team. It helped that their backup and other option were to play Langston Walker out of position, only to put Bell in when he wasn't ready. And it's looking like that's happening again, with Searcy being more of a SS and the two rookies not battle tested either in the pros. Should be interesting, but I don't expect to see Byrd before Week 1 much.

It seems there are three ways to go about publicly getting a new contract with Buffalo, illustrated by 3 high-profile players: 1. The Kyle Williams method: See a third overall pick get signed to a large rookie deal (brought on by the player's agent and the then system in place. Play ball with the team and negotiate behind the scenes. Emerge with a nice contract before the season begins. Continue playing well while dealing with injuries. 2. The Aaron Schobel method: Watch fellow DE (Kelsay) get re-signed to a decent deal (4 yrs 23M) just before UFA in 2007. Conduct a quasi-cold war in OTA's and mini-camp. Don't go against the team, but go on record as expecting a new deal. Sign largest Bills contract on eve of 2007 season. Retire after '09 season. 3. Jason Peters: Watch as you're paid less than Dockery and Walker. Continue playing All-Pro caliber football. Agent opens up negotiations somewhat publicly and team reciprocates. Acrimony a result of both sides seeing who's bigger. End up getting traded for essentially Eric Wood just before 2009 draft. Go on to 2 more All-Pro teams. I don't know what Parker will do this time, but he doesn't have the most cordial relationship with Buffalo. Perhaps that's because he drives a hard deal, but the Bills can't be pals with every agent. I get the impression Brandon thinks he can negotiate more in public as though it were a stadium lease deal. Unfortunately, negotiating with players is much different than what he does marketing the franchise and I'm not sure he appreciates that.

Dickerson a blocker? He's an H-Back type who'll probably compete with Gragg for a job.

I'll bet they get at least 35 calls a day for jobs in that department. And you would not believe the names.

FSU must be good because Buffalo selected 4 in the past two drafts: EJ, Hopkins, Bradham, and Zebrie Sanders. That, or Nix and Jimbo are best buds.

Since 2009 only two position players have represented Buffalo on AP's 1st or 2nd Team All-Pro list: Jairus Byrd and Kyle Williams. Byrd was 2nd team in 2009 and 2012. Williams was a 2nd teamer in 2010. The only other non-special teamers since 2006 to be named All-Pro were Jason Peters (2007. 2008) and Aaron Schobel (2006). Schobel signed the largest deal in Bills history just before the 2007 began. Kyle Williams would sign a 6 year 39M contract extension in August 2011. Peters was dealt, in essence, for Eric Wood and we're waiting to see what happens with Byrd. Either way, Parker seems to have Russ' number and will probably get his client paid one way or another.

How many times in the past few years have people on this board explained how important safeties are to the game? I remember during the Whitner debate that people repeatedly echoed this sentiment. And while I realize Donte was a SS and Byrd a FS, the position is evolving. In the box types are giving way to more well-rounded guys who cover and play the run. Now I'm not about to compare Byrd with a Troy Polamalu as a run defender, but he's the best they've got and fits the latter description. I know Mike Pettine can use him and if the pass-rush is improved, he stands to collect some turnovers. If the Bills can't sign Jairus Byrd long term this off-season, he's gone. The Bills haven't done a major in-season contract extension, save Fitz when they were pressured, in a long time.

That the same guy is in charge making personnel decisions this off-season whose draft picks two years ago are being traded (Sheppard) or changing positions (Aaron Williams) should be alarming. I recognize there's a new coaching staff in place, but we have the new team president telling us the GM still makes the calls. And his calls haven't been all that great, particularly in rounds 2-4.

That 2011 draft keeps getting better and better.

This being a very visible position (certainly this time of year) no NFL personnel guy wants to talk about their departure. It would be a distraction. But it's reasonable to suspect that Nix will depart despite there being no official or unofficial statement. Marrone was hired more by consensus as opposed to Gailey. And while we can disagree, this year's picks don't follow an established trend from 2010-12. Moreover, Whaley's promotion and aversion to interviewing for GM jobs probably means Nix ain't hanging around to see the result of the 2013 draft class.

How about the team's record the past 3 seasons?

Let's not conflate the argument. Of course, the South has an impressive concentration of collegiate talent. Yet, I think it's no coincidence the Bills' premium picks all came from that region of the country and almost 80% overall. You can call it coincidental or based on the region's talent, but from 2010-12 Buffalo's personnel department all but ignored a huge part of the country. It's Buddy's backyard and that's what he knows. And for someone who avoided risks like the plague (trading down during a rebuild, not picking a QB) it's not hard to imagine the GM looked to his part of the country for talent. We can agree to disagree, but Buddy didn't really interview for his job like a normal franchise would either. As for analytics, well, that's another story. The GM admitted he didn't know much about it in early January and it stands to reason with his departure most likely imminent, that he didn't break out the books since that time. My interpretation of analytics is that it helps to drive decision making by bringing a statistical approach to personnel with key metrics. The Bills are going in a different direction and it started this off-season.

The Bills had 27 picks from 2010-12. 22 of them were from the South including Texas. In rounds 1-3, the Bills had 9 picks in those same years and all of them were from the South. If that's not a big enough sample size, I'm not sure what is. And with Russ apparently going to a more analytics driven approach to personnel, it should be obvious Buddy isn't making picks like he did in 2010-12.

Two west coast picks! Did Buddy know about this?

Remember when Brandon talked about analytics at the press conference introducing Marrone and Nix was baffled? I think Brandon, despite what he said, knew Buddy's style wasn't working.