BillsVet

FSU must be good because Buffalo selected 4 in the past two drafts: EJ, Hopkins, Bradham, and Zebrie Sanders. That, or Nix and Jimbo are best buds.

Since 2009 only two position players have represented Buffalo on AP's 1st or 2nd Team All-Pro list: Jairus Byrd and Kyle Williams. Byrd was 2nd team in 2009 and 2012. Williams was a 2nd teamer in 2010. The only other non-special teamers since 2006 to be named All-Pro were Jason Peters (2007. 2008) and Aaron Schobel (2006). Schobel signed the largest deal in Bills history just before the 2007 began. Kyle Williams would sign a 6 year 39M contract extension in August 2011. Peters was dealt, in essence, for Eric Wood and we're waiting to see what happens with Byrd. Either way, Parker seems to have Russ' number and will probably get his client paid one way or another.

How many times in the past few years have people on this board explained how important safeties are to the game? I remember during the Whitner debate that people repeatedly echoed this sentiment. And while I realize Donte was a SS and Byrd a FS, the position is evolving. In the box types are giving way to more well-rounded guys who cover and play the run. Now I'm not about to compare Byrd with a Troy Polamalu as a run defender, but he's the best they've got and fits the latter description. I know Mike Pettine can use him and if the pass-rush is improved, he stands to collect some turnovers. If the Bills can't sign Jairus Byrd long term this off-season, he's gone. The Bills haven't done a major in-season contract extension, save Fitz when they were pressured, in a long time.

That the same guy is in charge making personnel decisions this off-season whose draft picks two years ago are being traded (Sheppard) or changing positions (Aaron Williams) should be alarming. I recognize there's a new coaching staff in place, but we have the new team president telling us the GM still makes the calls. And his calls haven't been all that great, particularly in rounds 2-4.

That 2011 draft keeps getting better and better.

This being a very visible position (certainly this time of year) no NFL personnel guy wants to talk about their departure. It would be a distraction. But it's reasonable to suspect that Nix will depart despite there being no official or unofficial statement. Marrone was hired more by consensus as opposed to Gailey. And while we can disagree, this year's picks don't follow an established trend from 2010-12. Moreover, Whaley's promotion and aversion to interviewing for GM jobs probably means Nix ain't hanging around to see the result of the 2013 draft class.

How about the team's record the past 3 seasons?

Let's not conflate the argument. Of course, the South has an impressive concentration of collegiate talent. Yet, I think it's no coincidence the Bills' premium picks all came from that region of the country and almost 80% overall. You can call it coincidental or based on the region's talent, but from 2010-12 Buffalo's personnel department all but ignored a huge part of the country. It's Buddy's backyard and that's what he knows. And for someone who avoided risks like the plague (trading down during a rebuild, not picking a QB) it's not hard to imagine the GM looked to his part of the country for talent. We can agree to disagree, but Buddy didn't really interview for his job like a normal franchise would either. As for analytics, well, that's another story. The GM admitted he didn't know much about it in early January and it stands to reason with his departure most likely imminent, that he didn't break out the books since that time. My interpretation of analytics is that it helps to drive decision making by bringing a statistical approach to personnel with key metrics. The Bills are going in a different direction and it started this off-season.

The Bills had 27 picks from 2010-12. 22 of them were from the South including Texas. In rounds 1-3, the Bills had 9 picks in those same years and all of them were from the South. If that's not a big enough sample size, I'm not sure what is. And with Russ apparently going to a more analytics driven approach to personnel, it should be obvious Buddy isn't making picks like he did in 2010-12.

Two west coast picks! Did Buddy know about this?

Remember when Brandon talked about analytics at the press conference introducing Marrone and Nix was baffled? I think Brandon, despite what he said, knew Buddy's style wasn't working.

A player from outside the South? Maybe Nix isn't making the call anymore.

Then I don't know what to tell you. The league is trending away from bigger linemen and teams aren't taking them, save Fluker in the first. And there aren't too many teams winning by running the ball. Peterson ran for 2k+ and Minnesota barely made the post-season. I'd say, probably as a result of the spread's proliferation in the college game, that athletic linemen are going to become more common. The bigger types are going the way of the dinosaur and Nix, at least from 2010-12, was behind the curve.

It seems, at least from 2010-12, that Nix differs significantly with the rest of the NFL on what to look for in lineman. Of the 8 OL picked 1-20, only Fluker goes above 320. OTOH, Nix drafted Cordy Glenn as a tackle who is about 345 and picked Hairston who goes about 330. Bottom line is, the league is getting smaller and more mobile at OL to support pass first offenses. Nix, at least in those drafts and via the UDFA/waiver wire market, has gone bigger. The premium placed on pass blocking to support these pass first offenses is increasing. Most teams aren't looking for 330 pounds who might win in a phone booth but struggle with speed. And it's why teams are going earlier with blockers and not just this year. You just don't typically find athletic lineman who can handle edge rushers and in late rounds and via UDFA, street FA's, or the waiver wire.

Did they not have "buzz" last year when Mario came to town and then signed? It's nice to have the football world mention you and your QB selection. But I couldn't care less about "buzz."

No, they're not. I just can't see Nix pulling off something like this.

The Bills don't typically acquire top 5 or top 10 position level talent. And so, it's rare they have to negotiate a contract extension with these caliber of players. It was only 4 years ago when Jason Peters' camp demanded too much and Russ had him traded. If, and it's only an if right now, Buffalo trades Byrd it sends a message that they're not willing to pay for their own drafted and developed types to play here. And while Steve Johnson got a good size contract, he's just not top-5 or top-10 at his position. Byrd can be considered that and will expect to be paid as such. If you trade players to get out from under their contracts it's impossible to build a football team. Eugene Parker may be a tough agent to negotiate with, but running away from him is not the answer here either. I would be more confident they had a decent rebuilding strategy if the team president weren't a football neophyte and the GM had a shred of management credibility.

Another item. It's well-known that the Jets have a need for another QB and I doubt their new GM Idzik wants to go with Sanchez regardless of inheriting the HC. And so, does Buffalo pass on Nassib and allow their division rival to have a shot at him?

You have to wonder what precipitated the Nassib hype the past month. Is it everyone just following the next person or did he really improve during the off-season that much? I wasn't enamored with his Senior Bowl effort nor the combine performance, but perhaps people know that someone is using a high first round pick on him and these draftniks want to say they ranked him highly when he's picked. Either way, teams need QB's as is the case every season. Problem is, there are moderate issues with each top prospect. I think Nassib appeals because he's a safe pick to some, but he does have issues that might prove hard to overcome at the pro level. JMO.

Bills ticket selling strategy in 2004, 2006, 2010, and 2013. The coaching failures are a symptom of the root cause that is Bills management failure, which includes the GM, president and/or owner. I think HC's get blamed because to the casual surface level fan, they're visible and so are their game-day decisions. Meanwhile, GM's typically are rarely seen and most of their work is done in a conference room or away from a camera I doubt it. Teams that change defenses typically need time to adjust to and learn the scheme. Part of the reason this organization has been on the merry-go round of defensive ineptitude has been the constant changing of their scheme. 4-3 Cover 2 from 06-09, 3-4 (followed by the amazing 5-2) in 2010-11. Then a 4-3 under by Wannstedt. To think they'll ace the next defensive change because they've played everything before is extremely remote. Going to take time to acclimate for the players to Pettine's scheme.

Buddy was pretty silent after his meltdown on WGR in November. Thought I'd read someone talked to him about keeping quiet. But yes, Nix isn't the most adept at subterfuge and tends to shoot too much from the hip. I'm sure Berchtold is working untold hours this off-season keeping their hopefully lame duck GM from saying anything advantageous to the other teams. Of course, when you put yourself into a hole at QB, talk about taking one, never do, and then have your back against the wall it's not hard to figure out what Buffalo will do. That is, unless Nix is now a figurehead and others are making decisions now. Who knows.

Not quite. Those teams, Cincinnati and San Francisco (both with 2 playoff appearances in 2011-12) picked A.J. Green and Aldon Smith respectively with their first round picks. I'd say they had a better handle on the draft than most teams did and managed to get outstanding value thus far with their top two selections.

Moving Williams to safety is not cause for celebration. It's further indictment that talent evaluation, at least in the 2011 draft, ain't what it was cracked up to be. What makes it worse is two now starting QB's were taken directly behind Williams and neither team felt the need to trade up in front of Buffalo to take them. I'm not sure how they knew or whether they just have great poker faces. IMO, moving a CB to S is like moving an OT to G. The former positions are harder to find, and moving them to the latter is an indication the player needs help. Nix drafted Williams to play CB and the new coaching staff is saying he can't play there after only 2 NFL seasons. They can't get rid of Nix soon enough.

Everytime I hear Buddy speak, it reminds me of Taggart played by Slim Pickens from Blazing Saddles:

Don't put words into my mouth. I'm referring only to the most recent rebuild attempt these past three years which resulted in 4, 6, and 6 wins. The team spent considerably on free agents, had 3 years of draft picks, and a coach who we were told was better than his predecessor. If you want to quibble over my comment, so be it. But don't tell me what I think.