BillsVet

Who cares? Go read a book or exercise because it's not worth the mental energy demanding talking heads repent.

Funny thing about turnovers... The two teams to lead the league in turnover differential? Baltimore and the New York Giants at +19. And the next 3 teams? New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. Maybe turnover differential ain't that big a deal as people are led to believe. But what is a big deal and a guaranteed way to not make the playoffs is when your franchise QB is out for the season. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/turnovers/table/miscellaneous/sort/turnOverDifferential/dir/desc

Comparison has to be having a healthy Josh > an injured Josh. Josh has thrown too many picks, but there hasn't been much discussion of how several other NFL QB's have upped their number of picks. Hurts had 15, Mahomes had 14, and Tua had 14. Real question is, are throwing a couple more INT's over the course of the season better than having a guy moderately to significantly degraded physically at 30? And what can the franchise do to make the passing game better, provided that Josh is preparing appropriately?

I credit the team for rebounding from 6-6 after the Philly game and winning their final 5 to earn the 2nd seed and a home playoff game (hopefully more) this weekend. At the same time, you can't help but see that Josh is needed to run the ball down the stretch more each season, particularly after or into their normal mid-season swoon. Either by design or when receivers may not be open - far too much Josh has is still carrying the ball and under all 3 coordinators they've had: Under Daboll: 2020: Buffalo entered week 9 at 7-2, finished 6-1, with Josh averaging 5.5 runs to earn the second seed. (No games with more than 10 carries) 2021: Buffalo entered week 9 at 5-3, finished 6-3, with Josh averaging 7.2 runs to earn the third seed. (3 of last 5 games with 10 carries) Under Dorsey: 2022: Buffalo entered week 9 at 6-2, finished 7-1, with Josh averaging 7.8 runs to earn the second seed. (3 of last 6 games with 10 carries) Under first under Dorsey, then Brady: 2023: Entered week 9 at 5-3, finished 6-3, with Josh averaging 8.3 runs to earn the second seed. (3 of last 5 games with 10 or more carries) Maybe they'll finally re-look their offensive identity, personnel decisions, and play-calling this off-season to avoid needing to do this. Until then, they're going to rely on Josh carrying the offense again in the playoffs.

McBeane have used almost as much RD1/2 draft value to acquire Josh as they did on offense in those rounds from 2018-2022. They went Edmunds, Oliver, Ford, traded for Diggs, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Elam, and Cook. My concern is McD gets his way again and because they used their 2023 on Kincaid, figure they can go back to defense in 2024.

Every time subjects like this are brought up, they're presented as some sort of binary issue. As in, you do or don't need an elite QB. You need an elite one who is surrounded by excellent talent...especially in the playoffs. The Eagles with Jalen Hurts lost in the SB to the team with a better QB AND offense last year. Brock Purdy comes to mind this year, a competent QB with top-end skilled talent and solid blocking. That will take you far, but in the 2023 NFL, it's no SB guarantee. See the 2019 San Francisco 49ers...perhaps the league's best defense that gave up 21 straight points in the 2nd half to an elite offense and lost that SB. That said, Buffalo seems to have had a plan for this franchise in 2017-18 that is largely the same today. They succeeded in acquiring the QB, but still want to feature an elite defense as though that will carry them. It might for some games in the regular season, but come playoff time it's victimized. They finally add a legit WR2 and WR3 who are threats and this team can go places. Of course, that'll mean not having everything on defense, but it's a net gain. I doubt they'll ever begin favoring the offense though. Perhaps the Bills start getting it right, but they need a course correction with where this franchise is going.

Buffalo is one of the older teams in the league and they've played 72 games since the 2020 opener. What's funny is the people who get worked with the woe is us mentality that guys are getting hurt on defense. Most of the ones who missed significant time (Miller, D. Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Milano) play positions where contact happens frequently. And with so many games played, it should be expected given the snaps. I think that's why McD insists on having so many high picks and vet UFA's on his DL. I'll never understand why McD insists on trying to keep a defense together, including that DL. The Seahawks had an excellent defense 10-11 years ago and within 3-4 seasons that was no more. The most sustainable way to continue winning is building an elite offense in this NFL era. That compared to retaining and acquiring parts to doing so across an entire defense is counter-productive for several reasons, notably, because it draws from what they could be doing on offense. Ironically, their 5 OL starters all have taken over 90% of the snaps this season. They've been fortunate there and I hope it remains the case.

There isn't 1 team in the league after 16 weeks who hasn't dealt with injuries. Every single guy is banged up because it's the NFL. Just because they aren't on the injury report means (EDIT: doesn't mean) they're healthy. The idea that a team can go a full season without a significant injury is pie in the sky nonsense. Maybe the biggest weakness of TBD is most Bills fans aren't following the league, or do so through reading headlines. As all of this debate around Josh happens, what happened to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? He's not the passer this season he was in 2020, or 2022 for that matter. What could have changed? Is he not taking the game seriously? Could it be the Chiefs stopped investing in top-end receiving targets and teams are better suited to defending them? Nah, couldn't be. Or what about Jalen Hurts and the Eagles? He's thrown double the INT's this year (EDIT: compared to last year) and the Eagles are struggling. Maybe, just maybe it's a confluence of factors. As in, teams having more film on these guys and defenses adapt or the coaching staff isn't innovative and going with the same old old, or they are dealing with injuries or they didn't have great skilled talent. It's never just one thing. Josh has had some issues, sure. But they're back running him and expecting him to get by with inferior skill talent around him as well.

I still don't know what their offensive identity is under McD in his 7 years, multiple 4 OC's, and all while featuring for the last 4 years one of the best QBs in the league. HC talks about not wanting to run Josh, but in crunch time needing to win multiple games, they go right back to it. We'll never know it, but I've often wondered if Pegula asks his HC why they put their 43M per QB into harms way so often. Serious conversation needs to be had about whether McD is a good steward of what he's been given, particularly this QB.

And if the defense struggles, I doubt they'll be able to adjust the offense in-game to make up for the passing game decline.

On the broadcast, they showed the run-pass play-calling between the 2 OC's. Dorsey was 46% run to 54%...but Brady is 53 to 47 in his 6 games. Looking at current defensive ranks, Dorsey faced 6 teams ranked in the bottom third of (EDIT: pass defenses) and only twice ran it more than 50%. Brady's faced mostly mid-ranked (EDIT: pass) defenses and run it 50% or more 4 times. Brady's delivering on the HC's desire for a balanced and safer offense, but they're more predictable. Of course, the passing game would be better if they'd invest in WR's more, but almost no one knew Gabe and their group of WR3-5 would disappoint.

Allen's supporting cast was not characterized as "bums" which is just a hyperbolic statement. The comparison was to teams like CIN, KC, and PHI he didn't have the skilled talent at WR/TE. I wouldn't characterize Kincaid as "one of the best receiving TE's in the NFL." He's averaging 8 yards per catch, good for 112th in the league among WR and TE. As advertised, his hands are excellent but he's not top tier yet. Also shouldn't go unsaid that the OL playing well is a major factor, but skilled receivers are not all that.

Mike Stivic on All in the Family. And still a meathead decades later.

When it works that offensive game plan with motivated players is great. Paired with a defense that then gets to play downhill an opponent is forced to throw (Edit: into that zone). Getting all these elements to go this way is challenging.

Did he expect sympathy from JA on that field after that result? Because I'm pretty sure that Josh is walking away not giving a rip about his whining.

I'm not aware of any fans here who are paying Miller's salary. If there are and now that investment is struggling, I'd like to know. I'll predict people will point to this move for why they're in cap trouble which is wrong. Besides, hindsight is 20/20. Most of the fans here complaining about the 2023 (before the DV issue) Miller were championing him coming to Buffalo in March 2022. For many, their collective Bills inferiority complex highlighted this signing as evidence the Bills could attract name UFA's. Now, those same people complain that he's not worth it. Well, which is it? I don't expect people to announce their own mea culpa because that'd require wiping the egg off their face. And if you're still clenching your fists, then blame McBeane for prioritizing the pass rush at this cost. The player was performing before the injury.

The game changes fast and comparisons to the 60s, 90s, or even 2010s are irrelevant now. This is a win-now league and certain teams with franchise QB's get after that goal with greater urgency than others. Doesn't mean make reactionary moves, only that those who play it safe end up losing. It's why the people here (prior to the DV issue) ragging on Buffalo for signing Von Miller are just following talking heads' opinions. Because prior to 2021, the Bills had a pass rush issue not featuring a guy who could get to the QB consistently. Had no issue with the Miller signing. Or, when it came time to draft a QB they went with the most physically gifted guy. You take controlled risks within your plan. We've seen Josh make plays in the playoffs that should have won at least 1 game. He's not perfect and this off-season needs to get his mindset sharpened. But the weak link in Buffalo is the HC who, at crucial times falls short all too often.

This will probably start like some of the European soccer teams do playing 1-2 games in North America before the season. The US fan base is pretty much what it is and there's not a lot of room for growth. So, like any corporate initiative, they'll look for emerging markets and believe Europe/South America/Asia represent that. Not surprising. What I'm interested in is how the NFLPA addresses initiatives like this. They eventually caved on 17 games and likely will when 18 is up for consideration. Seems like they get pushed around now by the owners in a way that Gene Upshaw never would have allowed. NFLPA strikes me as just controlled opposition now, bending to owners' desire for revenue with token resistance. 18 games is coming and so are more international games. Also means more injuries, shorter careers, and lower quality games. Have to wonder when the players start pushing back on their weak union.

Sometimes that's not the best way. Doing it all the time wears a person out I would suspect. I see plenty of emotion on the field lead to unnecessary penalties.

In other words, 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2022 were defense heavy. 2019 and 2020 were not. Thanks much for making the case that the organization builds its roster in the way I've described: defense first. A defense that breaks down in big moments as we've seen at crucial times going back a few seasons.

Name them. And then compare those to moderate to major (EDIT: defensive) signings and give me the delta.

Do you think it's a coincidence that 2017's first priority was overhauling their secondary? And yeah I know, Beane wasn't "officially" here yet. Or that they prioritized signing Star to a 5 year 50M deal in 2018? You know, during the time they were getting out of the previous regime's cap issues? Or, used 5 of 7 1st round picks on defense from 2017-2022? Or, have targeted defensive players first in each UFA period save for perhaps 1 maybe 2 since McD took over? Nah, McD isn't the prime voice at OBD. Not enough evidence. 👌

Beane is essentially McD. His primary responsibility is to work the personnel side on behalf of the roster priorities of the HC. And the past few off-seasons he either told McD the UFA priorities and draft needed to shift toward offense and was overruled or he didn't do it at all...we'll never know. The football people making decisions lack aggressiveness to make their own way. Most of the time it's acceptable to be cautious, but there's a time to create an opportunity and not just wait for one. It's funny because there's an organizational trend to be risk-averse not only in personnel acquisition, but to play things safe in-game.

If Beane went along with McD drafting and signing all those defensive players as the offense was under-resourced, I'm real hesitant to believe that he'd stab the guy in the back who advocated him for GM. Beane can demonstrate l a used car salesman persona, but I'm not seeing it to that degree. Besides, it'd get around in league circles and make life hard for a guy in his mid to late 40s to find subsequent employment. I can see you've thought this through for all of about 5 seconds. And whiffed tremendously.

Sure, it's that easy. To a fan that is. Try looking at it from a business and operational perspective. If Pegula fires McD that means: 1. Eating 34M+ (I've read McD makes 8.5/per) of salary from a contract extended a few months ago through 2027. 2. Starting the process to interview HC candidates and hire another guy which TPegs hasn't really excelled at. 3. Paying that new HC market rate in addition to the cost to fire McD. 4. Probably needing to hire another GM because Beane and McD are a package deal. So, going through the GM interview process potentially. And making sure the new GM and HC can work together because that's kind of important for a NFL franchise. 5. That new leadership will introduce significant changes in the football operation, including new schemes and personnel priorities. 6. Having all the scouting done in the fall on college and pro prospects needing to be done by the new group. 7. Oh, and the guy leading this is in his early 70s with an ailing wife who winters in FL while the new stadium is being built that is costing more money than he'd originally expected. Yeah, it's easy. And for the record, I'm in favor of firing McD.