BillsVet

The defense is a part of the discussion because it doesn't have built-in durability. From 2017-23, they relied on veterans who had the experience, but had/have a lot of mileage on them and would get banged up. And then there's the LB's who, while good in coverage, don't hold up with both missing key games. I'm really not surprised they put another body at S, LB, and CB given the rampant injuries there. And that naturally spills over into how they scheme the offense, which when the defense is banged up, has the brakes put on it. Only now, the skilled receiving talent hinges on improvement from 2nd and 3rd year guys, a WR who might be a big slot type, and a having a strong running game. Difference this season is, I don't see anyone who can threaten deep. And, I'm not expecting their OL to be as healthy as they were last year. For Buffalo to win using this method against top teams, everything has to go right. The offense needs to get leads allowing the defense to play downhill and force teams to throw into that zone. When it works, it's great...but when it doesn't, things get ugly. You end up with Josh lugging it as Brady and his two predecessors needed.

Yeah, to run as fast after multiple IR stints, off-season surgeries, and the wear and tear of a 16-17 game schedules. Even WR's who aren't making contact every play, you still have a guy like Curtis Samuel with more than 4,000 snaps taken in his career.

This was the "take your medicine" draft for McD and Beane after years of predominantly mediocre UFA decisions and meh drafts. Taking Josh in 2018 and fitting a lot of UFAs around him accelerated their rebuild. Job accomplished. But what McBeane have demonstrated is they could not maintain that because they relied so heavily on higher priced UFAs/trades, notably at DL, OL, and WR. They kicked the can down the road often through frequent re-structuring. I'd argue it's harder to maintain a top team than it is to rebuild, but that task is made harder when you're trying to be solid across on both sides. Point is, you can't build out a complete team in this era and gotta prioritize. And you must draft well or else it leads to UFA spending that eventually catches up with you. That happened this season. Everyone here who follows the league understands the Bills are swimming against the current balancing the team between defense and offense. Hoping to break the mold at WR featuring a bunch of small and big slot types who will operate closer to the LOS. Expecting the defense to remain healthy into the playoffs and as effective there as they typically are in the regular season. It might be a "transition" season, but it was coming. This isn't a discussion about individual players. It's whether or not, once again, their plan is appropriate. We're going to see.

It will be interesting how teams prepare defensively for Buffalo with all these short to intermediate options. They might not need to play much 2 deep because there's no threat deep and can afford to cheat up even on PA. At least not one who's done it, despite having the QB with the strongest arm in the league. Also puts the running game at a deficit being so predictable throwing it.

And when they don't meet expectations, he offers a weak excuse like not being able to draft a JaMarr Chase-type WR because their QB was healthy. A fan can live with that if there's improvement the following season, but that didn't happen in 2023. It was same old, same old. I've always wondered when Beane would come to the realization that being tied at the hip of McDermott was an anchor on his career. Because as much as McD got him this job, it's McD whose plan largely drives personnel decisions. And, that plan does not seem to consider that Josh could want out because his career is physically and competitively being hampered by McBeane.

You're starting to catch on Logic. Good for you. This regime is playing from behind and McD is doing his version of Sinatra's "I did it my way" approach to building a roster. Brady calls the offense to fit the HC's strategy. He doesn't get to freelance and certainly is limited by the players he's given. And the guy who's in charge of player priorities is the same HC. You're satisfied that the same people who couldn't get over the hump from 13 seconds are now going to get it right after these cap issues they got the team into? This group has a tendency to cry cap problems that they themselves have inflicted when the masses aren't enamored with their decisions or limitations. McBeane are poor stewards of the cap and now they gotta take their medicine. But it's OK.

You forking out 5 figures for a PSL and then 4 figures for a ST?

Lotta mileage and gonna be 25 in November. Maybe Buddy Nix helped with the board this year in a consultant-type role.

Some have discussed this once or twice in the past few off-seasons.

There's been a splash move every 2 years (Josh, Diggs, Von) and now when nothing happens, people are upset. Besides, usually a solid foray into UFA. This is where the regime is now: out of money and with a smaller complement of picks they can't maneuver up with (at least on Day 1 and 2). Fans gotta get used to it.

Barring a major move, Beane and McDermott are going for walks and singles. That's OK if you're a team with a QB, WR1 and decent defense as Buffalo was in 2021 and 2022, perhaps 2023. Not so now, when the WR group consists of Samuel, Shakir, and WR4/5 types. Day 2 and 3 draft capital are bloop singles and maybe doubles without a big move for a veteran now that the top 5-6 WRs are off the board. It's like 2022 when their first 3 picks were a CB, RB, and LB given the positional value compared to their situation even then at WR. We will see though.

Yeah, you can either have the used car salesman (Beane) and his manager (McDermott) running things. Or, you can have Mr. Burns. That's how I see the Bills right now.

Shakir averaged 36 yards per game last year, so I wouldn't point to him as this major coup of a pick. Buffalo's best draft pick used on a WR in 6 drafts is a 4th on Davis. And he was so good they let him walk in UFA. McBeane have found most of their production from UFA or trades at the position in a league which prioritizes them in the draft.

Everything doesn't have to be a mechanical discussion Beck. The problem here is that you understand cost without value. Yeah, trading for Diggs cost a 1st in 2020 and paying his salary, which led to the contract extension he desired. On-field, the production offered meant there was value to the move. It gave the QB a much better receiving option and, in 2020, their offensive exploded. With any trade up, we're talking about maximizing the biggest asset - Josh - with someone who'll be a primary receiving target for him. Someone who elevates the other players in their roles beyond the QB. As in, it allows Samuel to be a Z, Shakir (or someone else) to the play the slot and Kincaid to be their flex TE. That threat should help the running game. Besides, the human element to the player they select is why you do the research. There's risk in taking a kid who'll be handed a large contract. That's where having a coach who understands people with a development program is crucial. Controlling risk becomes a priority when you lack confidence. And draft night is all about being confident in your research, scouting, and decision-making ability.

All this subterfuge about Thomas fed to sports media types talking to team executives. I can't believe people don't know how this works after years of these late reports/issues for a particular player.

Taylor, are you down on Travis already? I guess that wouldn't be unexpected. Maybe Kincaid is your man now...that would definitely make the season interesting!

Playing it safe most years is partly why they've ended their season with a Divisional Round loss three years running. Yet, the one time this regime went big on draft in 2018 they landed Josh. Credit to McBeane for being bold and positioning themselves to move up for JA. You can't do that every year, but there's a time and a place for it, notably QB and now WR. Fortune favors the bold. The NFL remains an offensive-driven league and I'm not sure how people keep missing this. You don't get as far with a pedestrian or even decent offense and a regular season excellent defense in the playoffs. The strategy hasn't worked in years. Other thing is to what's happening in the background. No, this isn't Whaley and Brandon using future picks they might never have had after RW passed away which has been pointed to in this thread. But it probably isn't lost on McBeane that they are selling PSL's, a new stadium is going in, and they need to win. I don't think Terry is as hands-on with the Bills, but that's a factor, even if distant. McBeane should take a calculated risk, if they deem the player worth it, because Josh deserves more than what is on the roster now.

When will they hold struggle / re-education sessions with Commissar Beane to "enlighten" the whining and crying Bills fans?

It helps to play Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles 6x/year with an elite QB when Justin Herbert is the best of the other 3. They also get to play Buffalo at some point in the playoffs and have their number. Ironically, their 2 seasons in the past 5 they didn't win the SB was against a top-end offense in Tampa Bay and against a Bengals team in the AFC CG that featured a healthy Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. You keep your head above water on defense and feature an elite offense against KC. Hard to win otherwise in the playoffs when all the marbles are there for the taking. They're coached well and resourced better.

Buffalo needs the ability to out-score opponents in the playoffs and even with Josh, they haven't been and still aren't capable of that. You just aren't going to stop elite offensive teams even when relatively healthy in the post-season. Drafting more defense is spinning your wheels. At some point, expecting to get to the playoffs with a high-rotationally driven defense, especially DL, is not realistic. You'd be lucky to keep healthy McD's 8+ man DL after 17 or more games. You're lucky if Bernard and Milano who are both undersized and adept in coverage healthy after so many snaps. McBeane can continue being late to the party on offense and trying to thread the needle with a balanced offense and going the same path on defense. It's more likely to fail and we'll all be back to citing injuries or the offense struggling because it's predictable. The vision has to change beginning now.

You forgot the /sarcasm at the end of your post.

The issue with a WR/TE group consisting of short to intermediate options is that it is limited and predictable. With no speed guy, teams can play up because the deep threat isn't on the roster. Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid (how they used him last year) and whatever else do not offer this kind of capability. Perhaps they unleash Kincaid more, though it remains to be seen. Or, their WR group reflects how the coaches want to run the offense in which case it will fail against better defenses, i.e. in the playoffs if they get there. Keeping the passing game closer to the LOS, reducing risk, and trying to assemble 8+ play drives is not aligned with successful modern offenses featuring a talented QB. For now, Samuel is an average Z and Shakir might be a good slot option. The rest are JAGs who'll be, at best, WR4/5 options.

Yeah, he's a human being and it seems people want to canonize him while still alive. Wouldn't be the first athlete who was lauded publicly that had a lot of issues going on behind the scenes. Walter Payton comes to mind. It's all still entertainment. Much more important things going on, but nice to have a QB after all those years of not. I hope he gets his sh** together and the team puts better players on the field around him. We'll see.

It would be the biggest gut punch for Bills fans to have the franchise QB demand a trade after the 2025 season because the QB didn't perceive the HC/GM provided the resources to win in 2024 and 2025. Because by early 2026 the PSL's are sold, ticket prices raised, and the new stadium set to opening for the 2026 season. I can't see, if Terry was faced with a Josh or McD decision, the HC not being sent packing. There's too much financially riding on Josh and McD ain't that great a coach. You hope it never comes to that, particularly because McBeane know who is carrying them today and into the future.

That's not the point really, nor anything I'm doubting. McBeane have proven time and again they'll use draft picks to move up, as they did with Kincaid and Elam in RD1 these last 2 years. The issue is, people like to claim the draft is a total crap-shoot and that's surface-level analysis. You can be a decent drafting team without prioritizing the riskier positions to draft and look OK or better. You can get burned drafting the higher positions and be viewed not so good. Drafting well is finding talent primarily at the harder to find positions because it more than likely shows up in W-L column. I don't think the question to ask is whether the draft is a crap-shoot, which in this discussion is mostly RD1-2 picks. It's more about are teams bold enough there to go after the premium positions to find elite talent. When they do, they're more likely to win if they have decent personnel people.