BillsVet

Buffalo was fortunate that their 5 starting OLinemen, Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Torrence, and Brown all played 96% of their offensive snaps. I do not expect them to feature a starting 5 next season that duplicates that luck It also speaks to how having a unit that is experienced with perhaps less talent > a talented unit that is newly assembled. If the OL is comprised of Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, and Brown that's at least 1 new face and I'm not sold McGovern is penciled in at C just yet as much as SVPG is talked up. Also think the threat of Allen running has bailed them out some, but would need more data on his non-designed runs to see how much.

It's funny, because there was talk by some solid posters here about the WR position as a need in 2021, 2022, it heated up in 2023, and continued into 2024. It's become clear their lack of investment there points to a schematic priority they don't share with most of the NFL. Frankly, it's personnel blockheadedness. OBD do not get points in 2024 for what they did in 2019, 2020, or 2021. That was an eternity ago and the NFL is a "now" league. Offensively, the NFL is a vertical game and throwing downfield well tends to win in the post-season. Throwing horizontally and short to backs, slot receivers, and to the TE makes them predictable. Their personnel is going to limit them a lot sooner than people realize. The MVS signing was an acknowledgement they know they're limited at WR they needed to sign a guy who's been available for 2 months on the market. All their guys practically have the same skill set.

It's pretty simple. Bills have dramatically under-allocated draft picks and UFA dollars to the position the past 7-8 offseasons. This, ergo, somehow becomes how the position isn't really that valuable to align with what the "team" has done. Not surprised people arrive at that take to deflect from what the team decided. This issue at WR will become even more noticeable in September and continue the whole season, whereupon people will forget theoretical discussions about the value of WR's in the 2024 NFL and wonder why the heck McBeane don't invest there.

To quote Chesterton, "We shall soon be in a world in which a man may be howled down for saying that two and two make four, in which people will persecute the heresy of calling a triangle a three-sided figure, and hang a man for maddening a mob with the news that grass is green." Developed countries are losing population rapidly and people respond to the idea of marriage and family like it's wrong.

16 days? That's all? Some here have been doing it 10, 20 years or more. It is so much fun telling people what is real instead of making them feel good. So take those arrows and smile.

Maybe McD can get Phil McGeoghan back from the UFL next season and help him find another WR. It's already worked once before, why can't it again?

Buffalo Bills WR room slogan this year should be "The sum is greater than the parts." Issue with their WR/TE group is they're either very young or a one-trick pony. It'll take a lot of scheme and tremendous development to get consistent production. Still no all-around WRs on the roster who can remain on the field in most situations. Diggs lined up in different positions and offered versatility they now lack. It's still going to be a predictable offense in certain situations.

Not a big fan of Warren Sharp, but on X the other day he posted that Buffalo has the 4th cheapest WR room at 15.2M in the league ahead of only the Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers, and Packers. Baltimore was next at 20.3M.

Amazing how they led the league in points scored that season and a full point per game higher than the season before with Hill. Maybe not as dominant, but still pretty good to win a SB for a transition year. Ironically, both KC and BUF have the same set-up with their HC's relationship to the GM. In neither does the GM supervise the HC and the latter sets their vision for the roster. KC, despite being somewhat cash poor, is still a better run organization than Buffalo.

I remember making fun of people here who claimed KC was done after trading Hill. With Mahomes, Kelce, and yeah, even Reid that was absurd. KC then invested part of the money saved from not paying Hill on Juju and some other receivers. And then won the SB. It's kinda like the people who pronounced KC done when they lost their starting multiple OLinemen from their 2020 bad OL ...and then picked up Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown at the start of UFA.

If the objective criteria of success is for a guy to demonstrate he "popped off the screen" I don't know what to tell you. Funny thing about the Chiefs is they've become a more complete team since the AFC CG loss to New England in 2018. They were 31st in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed (EDIT: that year). Last year, they were 2nd in both categories. We can go on all off-season debating this, but it's a very different ideology for building a roster there. The one thing they've been more adept at is sustaining their success and I haven't heard anyone in KC mention about being in "transition." No one said that when trading Tyreek Hill was done. The common theme is having difference makers and Buffalo doesn't have that aside from Josh. He's a big piece of the puzzle, but Buffalo lacks an elite receiver or pass rusher and haven't developed any either - yet.

I liked the Rousseau pick and still believe there was great value in signing Miller because a pass-rush is must-have to their scheme. Oliver, well, he's been real good, but it took to season 4-5 for it to happen. It's the need to have serious depth on DL that has always been an issue. They signed numerous DTs to serve as depth as their WR group remained the same or declined. But it's their "model" and what they do. The Chiefs have difference maker in Chris Jones, but also have out-performed Buffalo finding and developing pass rushers from the draft. It should be alarming the McD-coached Bills really haven't. As to not being in a position to draft good pass rushers, George Karlafaftis went 30th overall and registered 10.5 sacks last year. It's a cop-out of Doug Whaley proportions to say they don't draft high enough to obtain good ones. Point is, their "model" has failed to improve upon the 2020 season. Period. They've gone no further than the Divisional Round and if you're not improving, you're regressing. It's a model which is never challenged inside OBD and that's a problem. And now they have the cover saying their self-inflicted cap situation is inhibiting which necessitates a "transitional" year.

One of these decades the Carolina model could work. Carolina went 6-10 after that 15-1 season, so pretty clear that model is not sustainable. Besides, the game is changing rapidly now and what worked in that one excellent season nearly 10 years ago no longer applies. This is an issue of positional value. McBeane have a tendency to address their personal priorities first to fit their scheme and then cry poor when other positions aren't and they flak for it. They've now worked themselves into a corner cap-wise, and are sure to remind people of that self-inflicted limitation. If a team is using high draft picks on starting LB's and end up with Carolina's group in 2015, fine. If they "need" to use more high picks and UFAs for non-pass rushing DLinemen, not so fine. Buffalo still prioritizes the wrong positions and tries to get by at the high positional value slots with less. But it's their plan and they'll keep trying to jam that square peg into the round hole like a 4-year old. Papa Terry doesn't seem to care they're wasting his quarter-billion dollar QB in the process.

They spend months evaluating their season, identifying areas of improvement and personnel priorities, strategizing, and setting up their board. To conclude from one carefully edited video anything concrete is unrealistic. That board is built after all that off-season self-analysis is complete. Tendencies have merged from several drafts and UFA signings now. Sometimes, what they say offers insight into their overall strategy, like McD saying they want to run the ball better ever since the 2020 season ended. Those tendencies are out in the open now...like not taking WR/TE in 2021-22 and being forced to by 2023-24. Or seeing Brady get them in the second half of the 2023 season back to evening out the run to pass ratio. I'd argue the overall vision is pretty consistent pre-Josh becoming a franchise guy compared to now. This isn't about a RD4 RB or a RD5 C either. It's about their vision, which on offense doesn't come off as innovative. It's safe, and that's a characteristic McD has been since Day 1.

On X, Sharp followed up that this stat was since 2020, not 2000. That said, the strategy to just have Josh elevate everyone around him...I think he's done that about as much as you can ask a NFL QB to do. It's a risky strategy just expecting him to do that each and every year. If that's gonna be the case this season, he cannot be hurt or they go into the tank fast.

What is Anquan Boldin doing these days?

The issue is philosophical now and has been for a few years. This latest draft put it out in the open, but it's actually been a common theme McBeane's whole 7 years. First thing McD was saying after the 2020 Bills scored 500 points and made the AFC CG was he thought the offense needed to run it better. In the ensuing 2 drafts they used 0 picks in RD1-3 on WR or TE as Brown and Beasley declined. And they did run the ball decent later, but the offense was overall worse because their passing game declined. Compare their scoring from 2020 to 2021 to 2022 to last season. I'd expect a team to revisit their philosophy every off-season and ask whether it's working. This team though has a habit of running things back because innovating isn't their strong suit. 3 straight divisional round losses point to it not being. I think @Kirby Jackson had it right that anyone could get this team to 10-11 wins and perhaps 1 playoff win with Josh. Besides, the people who lazily compare this result to the drought years are just spewing sophistry into the discussion. It's not an either or of the drought performance or this. It's about getting beyond where they've been 3 years running and winning the SB. If you're content with increasingly worse divisional round losses, then go for it. Most fans with Josh aren't anymore.

Khalil Shakir is becoming the Bills equivalent of Bill Brasky. Every time the TBD'ers mention his name it's on some level of magnitude greater than the last time. It's funny, but so TBD. By the time camp rolls around I'm sure someone will project him as an All-Pro. "To Khalil Shakir!"

What is the impact of a Diggs-less, offense? That is the key question almost no one is considering. He was their best and most versatile receiver that defenses keyed on. Sure, down the stretch he wasn't the biggest factor, but now that he's gone, it's not just replacing his production. I laugh at people who assume that minus Diggs' targets, they'll just be equally spread among those remaining without any drop in production. Every one of their receivers AND Josh now doesn't have the benefit of Diggs drawing the opponents best corner. C I'm not on this board to massage fan feelings about the team. This years' offense given their current skill types will be slower, closer to the LOS, and more predictable. They were trending that way at the end of last season trying to balance the run with the pass. Josh only threw for more than 300 yards 2x out of the 9 games Brady was OC and one of those was the OT loss to Philadelphia. And when they don't have the solid pass offense, it'll bleed over into the run eventually.

I'm not your wife/GF, so I don't need to hear you out. The Bills do not seem interested in featuring a high-cost WR anymore for cap reasons. Because they won't have enough room to pay Josh, a non-rookie contract WR1, and providing all the pieces to McD's defense. I said around 2021 here that something would have to give eventually with their UFA spending, getting the pieces to the defense McD expects, and paying Josh. We're at that point now. You and many others are rationalizing what they've done and manufactured into why it's right. We're going to find out, but there is no proven deep threat on the roster and having watched this team, the more questions you have entering the season, the slimmer your margin for error is. Even with a franchise QB. It is a question how a flex TE who averaged 9 yards per catch last year suddenly becomes their deep threat. And none of Samuel, Shakir, or Hollins are that guy really. They don't offer the versatility, they don't separate, and their limited to being short to intermediate guys against Everyone expects these WR's will get production and people will move up to the next position on the depth chart seamlessly. Big ask for guys who've never been covered by the opponent's top DB's.

Yeah, you've framed the debate around winning when Mahomes has 3 of the last 5. Making the SB, there's Hurts with AJ Brown and D. Smith. Cincinnati with Burrow having Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Goff in 2019 with R. Woods, Cooks, and Kupp. If you're talking about making a CG, there's Purdy having McCaffrey, D. Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. Even Buffalo did that with Diggs, J. Brown, and Beasley in 2020. It's pretty common to put receiving options, UFA or drafted, around a younger QB to accelerate the development and increase chance of offensive success. Buffalo made sure Josh had better targets in 2019-20, but stopped adding in 2021-22.

If the last 9 games under Brady are any indication, at a minimum they'll be more balanced. In those games, they ran it 331 times versus 311 passes (including sacks taken). Maybe some wiggle room with Josh taking off on a pass play, but that's a 51.5-48.5% run to pass ratio. By comparison with Dorsey, it was 254 runs to 363 passes from games 1-10, or a 41-59% run to pass ratio. Whether or not that will be as successful with their personnel group is another question entirely.

Ironic that their defense has been well-defined since Day 1 of this regime schematically and in personnel. Offense, not so much. I think McD has always wanted a strong(er) running game, because he prioritizes the offense along what he fears most on defense. And his defense can be susceptible to a strong running game. Still, that's maybe not ideal given league-wide trends that favor passing and who he has at QB. Problem is, the OC's he hired all saw they had Josh Allen and weren't going to avoid using him like Brady seems willing to given the priorities and lack of complete passing options. Issue with this offense...it's safe and predictable. Running the ball complemented with a short to intermediate passing game and personnel to match. The quick-strike ability doesn't fit with reducing the defense's time on field. Then again, that's the HC. He plays it safe on draft day with Beane. Safe offense. A defense that is structured, but the scheme hasn't changed much in years. Safe gets you perhaps into the playoffs, but not much further as demonstrated by the past few years.

The defense is a part of the discussion because it doesn't have built-in durability. From 2017-23, they relied on veterans who had the experience, but had/have a lot of mileage on them and would get banged up. And then there's the LB's who, while good in coverage, don't hold up with both missing key games. I'm really not surprised they put another body at S, LB, and CB given the rampant injuries there. And that naturally spills over into how they scheme the offense, which when the defense is banged up, has the brakes put on it. Only now, the skilled receiving talent hinges on improvement from 2nd and 3rd year guys, a WR who might be a big slot type, and a having a strong running game. Difference this season is, I don't see anyone who can threaten deep. And, I'm not expecting their OL to be as healthy as they were last year. For Buffalo to win using this method against top teams, everything has to go right. The offense needs to get leads allowing the defense to play downhill and force teams to throw into that zone. When it works, it's great...but when it doesn't, things get ugly. You end up with Josh lugging it as Brady and his two predecessors needed.

Yeah, to run as fast after multiple IR stints, off-season surgeries, and the wear and tear of a 16-17 game schedules. Even WR's who aren't making contact every play, you still have a guy like Curtis Samuel with more than 4,000 snaps taken in his career.