BillsVet

They've become predictable with their RD1-3 picks these last 3 drafts. Lot of low positional value selections coming after 2021 draft. Yeah...2022 RD1 was need followed by a RB and ILB. 2023 with a TE (where they missed on the WRs), G, and LB then 2024 going straight need at WR, S, and DT. Beane is praised around here for entering the draft supposedly with few needs, yet their board tends to be a lot less BPA for a team expected to make the playoffs. It's as if they want to be stable at every position and are content with high floor types to achieve that. Using the draft for need catches up with a team no matter who you have at QB.

They've never needed this level of rookie contribution since becoming a playoff team and it's a direct result of being as cap-challenged last off-season. And that's happened because Josh has to get paid and McD needs all of his defensive pieces. Something has to give eventually. Their top 3 picks from 2024 were made more for need than anything else. They were weak at WR and Coleman received 60% of snaps through 8 of his first 9 weeks pre-injury. Carter had 30% in 6 of his first 7 on that rotational DL. And I suspect they envisioned Bishop starting until that pre-season injury. As an aside, I noted in another thread that from the 2017-22 drafts, 22 players reached the end of their rookie contracts. 16 were re-signed (73%) with only 6 hitting UFA. Even at slightly below-market rates, that's a lot of cap expended and especially when compared with adding UFA's. Means you gotta get lower-cost players.

McD is just upset that an admin type GM like Roseman is better at finding DT's than he is.

Lot of issues with this, primarily how it points to Bills of last few seasons getting careless with resources. Carter was the RD3 pick acquired from KC to essentially move from 28 to 32 and their first DT pick since Oliver in 2019. Moves made already or likely this off-season suggest Carter receiving less PT in his second season. Also means their first 3 picks from their 2024 draft are not showing what they wanted after 1 season. It's one thing to have 1 player under-perform, but the top 3? I know McD isn't keen on starting or giving significant PT to rookies, but getting into that position last year is a direct result of misusing resources, specifically cap dollars in previous seasons at positions of lower positional value. That leads to needing rookies to play well...and in this case it was lesser regarded prospects who predictably struggled at times for a team expected to win in the playoffs. They gotta be better with positional priorities in general, but also in personnel decisions. Too many RD2 and RD3 picks just aren't measuring up and that leads to needing more higher-priced vets being signed.

With this extension, of the 2017-22 draft picks who finished their rookie deal, Buffalo has re-signed 16 versus 6 allowed to try UFA. They really love them some of their own picks.

Imagine what Josh could do with another CB. At this point it's just plain comical watching this franchise and having Josh Allen. Like Lucy not letting Charlie kick the ball comical. They rostered the worst 5 WR to open the '24 season since Buddy and Chan and it was so bad they needed to make a trade after Week 6. Cooper then opened up the passing game by his mere presence, but has likely played his last game and won't be returning. Leaves Buffalo with spare part types in Shakir, Samuel, and Coleman. Solution? Sign a guy who's averaging 47 yards per over his last 3 seasons and expect him to produce against better coverage. Expect Coleman to suddenly figure it out in year 2. And, perhaps expect Kincaid to live up to his draft status. If it doesn't happen...can't blame the reigning NFL MVP. Yet, management won't admit error running a scheme that has no margin for error and features meh offensive skilled talent. Then what? Draft another RB? Fire the OC? The offense will take a step back this year. How much is the question.

It doesn't matter what they did last year. Question to ask is why will they be better next year? UFA is over and they've once again tweaked the roster, but having done that the previous 4 off-seasons, it didn't lead to greater post-season success. Those who love swimming at the surface reviewing the AFC CG conveniently forget or are that obtuse that Buffalo was faced with 14 third downs, converted 5, needed 4 4th down conversions and as such had a heck of a time against Spagnuolo (again). That's 4 losses to KC in 5 years and just expecting the Chiefs to get worse so Buffalo can win is not a plan. Have to answer the question: how did the Bills set any distance between themselves and the Chiefs or anyone else in the AFC this off-season? I don't see it and draft picks aren't likely to provide further margin, particularly with them set to take another CB or DT in RD1-2.

Beane stopped being bold a couple seasons ago building out the roster. I attribute this to the normal course many organizations follow which sees them be bold initially to right a ship and then settling into a predictable pattern of safe decision-making. Outside of Von Miller in 2022, that's what they've been for the past 5 seasons. Still, the bold statements are there, but now there's little to back them up. Especially when your drafts in RD1-3 since 2022 have been so run of the mill. Years ago I recall seeing the sequence of 3 straight 7-9 seasons and knowing something had to give...which happened in 2009-10. Sure, they're a perennial playoff team, but scraping out a win in the divisional round or losing there is not something you can keep doing. You either get better or fall off and based on their answers to problems like a more robust passing game and pass rush help...I think there's a change coming if they remain so set in their ways.

I don't think it's Beane, but rather the philosophy they adhere to now. Because a team that does so little from the 2021 to 2024 off-seasons is more than something the GM has decided - it's an evident trend. And I suspect they are so enamored with this run-pass balance everybody eats nonsense which is convenient because WR's cost more and they've largely gone away from paying anyone big money. Their defense costs too much to maintain and something has to give.

They came out of their off-season reviews once again making tweaks across the board trusting that their overall philosophy is correct. They've more or less done the same since 2021. Defense was an issue, but a primary or contributing (at least) cause is banking on having your entire unit healthy 17+ games in. There's no margin of error in a violent game that almost guarantees injuries. And their back 7 has seen plenty. So, they go sign a banged up DE and now sign 2 with pending PED suspensions. Come on. And I suspect they'll draft a rookie CB or DL who'll hopefully contribute, but at the bottom of RD1, how much? Safety position might be better, but aside from Benford CB depth isn't great. On offense, pretty clear except to a special select few that you need WRs who can separate and work outside. They relented last year entering Week 6, but now have exchanged Cooper for Palmer which is a downgrade if both are healthy. The remainder are either highly drafted or paid and none scare a defense. And for whatever reason, having the MVP QB isn't enough to put better WRs around him who aren't unknowns heading into this season. Pretty clear HC and GM remain stubborn and just expect things to work. I don't expect this to change, but as underwhelming as Coleman and Kincaid were, perhaps blaming certain players is a symptom of something greater: the personnel decisions and the scheme those players are put in. Start there.

For whatever reason Buffalo doesn't use a lot of picks at DT - now only 3 used across 8 drafts (H. Phillips, Oliver, Carter). For reference, they've used 4 on RB's. Doesn't mean they won't this year with the talent apparently available. Somewhat of a wildcard is the Ogunjobi's suspension and whether that tweaks their board. If the conditions lead to a choice between CB and DT I suspect they'll go with the former. And I can see them going DT in RD2 if it plays out that way.

Is Palmer decent or on the descent? Or ascendant? And how does he ascend facing, for the first time in his career, the defense's likely best CB?

Cook the liability in pass blocking means he's not getting 3rd down snaps. Johnson does, but RBs out of the backfield play a complementary role anyway and aren't typically primary options in the passing game. The main effort there has to have Palmer excelling now against better CBs AND Coleman stepping up to be a real WR2. Not likely. Going from Cooper to Palmer is a downgrade which places added strain on an offense unless their UFA WR has a career year. Also, not likely. Lot of if's and hopefully's again for this WR group. Kinda like Beane's UFA strategy.

And beat the Chiefs...in Kansas City to get there no less.

It matters who and where your receivers are on the field. They got away for the first 3 weeks last season throwing it largely, by scheme, into the middle without a very good boundary receiver. Then Baltimore and Houston games clarified that you must attack outside the hash marks and make a defense defend the entire field. Or, your QB gets his hand injured having to run it in Week 1 and later his head bounced off the turf from a huge DLineman destroying him. McBeane enter 2025 with Palmer and maybe Coleman as their boundary receivers provided no one else is signed. I make no assumptions this offense maintains or improves their production. And even if Brady improves his play design and calling, the receiver talent is worse now than at the end of last season. And that limits what you can do.