JuanGuzman
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Posts posted by JuanGuzman
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while I applaud the effort and it certainly has created a discussion and judging from the posts a lot of people enjoyed the read. My issue is the subject matter doesn't lend itself to inferential statistical analysis, essentially for statistical analysis to be meaningful e.g., to make inferences or prediction based the information at hand the statistic must be "observable" even if its only on a limited basis. For instance with just a small sample size e.g, if we take a sample of the heights of of 29 people who post on the Stadium Wall, we could say with great degree of likelihood what the average height of the entire board is, and describe the likelihood of a poster being 7'feet tall or being a midget.
Whereas you're basing your analysis on the opinions of perceived experts predictions, unfortunately the true data is not observable and resides in the heads of GMs/and Coaches. Moreover the GM's intentionally obfuscate the discussion to disguise their poker hand, and the experts themselves (e.g., blogs, media) fall victim to group think, where their aim is not an accurate prediction but rather one that is in line with their peers to avoid embarrassment.
I think your analysis works well as an aggregator of the opinions of the blogs/media, e.g., if someone didn't have the time to read 30 blogs and media predictions they could read your post and come away with an accurate description of the what the blogs are saying, but as far as using your post as predictor of what will happen it is simply not statistically valid.
I do think you could say something valid with regards to the past performance of these websites in terms of accuracy of their predictions. Just off the top of my head Logit analysis would probably work the best as your dealing with qualitative information.
Cheers, and thanks for the hard work.
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Thank you for the link to the Article. Its a nice story that looks like it may end well.
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I enjoy the fact that Bernard Pollard was in on the play, it looked like Welker hurt the knee when he tried to cut right but I'm sure it didn't help that Pollard came in low for the tackle.
Honestly, if Welker is done (which it looks like he is) Bernard Pollard could go down as one of my favorite players of the decade - - He quite possibly ruined two patriot seasons single-handedly. Bernard Pollard I am currently searching ebay for your game worn jersey!
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oh man I lost by less the a point in fantasy semi, I crushingly witnessed a Clay Mathews sack, FF, and FR get overturned on instant replay review with 1:17 left in the first Q Ptt vs G.B. My issue is, Clay Mathews an IDP player for my my team should have been credited with a PD on that play after the FF was overturned. However, as of yet Matthews hasn't been credited with said PD and the final scores are up in my league. My question when does the NFL put out there final stat corrections and will it have any affect on my league as the 1pt from a PD would put me in the final.
* I know I probably sound like a whiny B word but the 500$ prize winnings could help me buy some xmas gifts haha
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I wouldn't bench LT, Cincy run defense isn't the same without Peko in the middle + norv turner has shown willingness to get LT the ball at the goal line. The Packers defense is worrisome for Mendenhall but I think he is more trustworthy than either Harrison or Jennings - - although if reports have one of two browns RB getting the majority Carries maybe roll with them.
Is Arian Foster (Hou Rb) owned in your league? Foster ended up with 17 touches lastweek and Kubiak sounds inclined to start him this week
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Thanks Jokeman, I see this forum is hardly in use so I appreciate the reply. Its tough because Smith had one of his best games of the year last week against a stingy cincy defense, meanwhile I just don't know how many touches Quenton Ganther will get - word is the load will be shared but Oakland run defense is so bad if Ganther can get 15 touches I feel like he will put up a worthy stat line.
Right now I'm rolling with Ganther
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my options are not pretty
Kevin Smith @ Baltimore D
Fargas or McFadden vs Was D
Justin Forsett @ Houston (I hate Julius Jones)
Quenton Ganther @ Oak
believe it or not right now I am leaning towards Quenton Ganther. I don't like my chances
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I had the game PVR'd and was fascinated by Mike Williams play. He looked like a solid to strong RG for the redskins. Solid in the run game, excellent in pass protection and made a few athletic plays when he was asked to pull.
too bad that fat bastard didn't have the work ethic in Buffalo.
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Do you even know what happened? The Rough Riders players stepped onto the field before the play was over. It wasn't a ST mistake. It was a whole team f**k-up!
PTR
PTR, I am not sure where your getting the information from but your wrong. I watched the game live and the Roughriders had 12 man on the line of scrimmage, and 1 guy in the end zone to return a potential missed kick = 13 men. (Field Goals are live for the kicker to recover in the CFL) hence the need to have a return man back there.
The Special Teams coach Kavis Reed already took the blame himself, video clearly should 13 guys participating in the play. I have no idea where your getting the info about the teams stepping on the field before the play was over causing the penalty.
Here is the link: Coach explains 13th man Gaffe
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yeh, I usually don't consider myself overly optimistic, but I thought McCargo would find his way this year as a slashing/penetration DT. I didn't think he would live up to his billing as a #1 pick, but I was expecting more snaps from him + occasional good play.
Still think he has the talent, but he has done nothing to deserve respect. I am going to try to keep an eye on the few snaps he does play for the rest of the year.
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14 team league, each team must start a minimum of 2 WRs, with the possibility of 3.
We currently start 2 WRs, 2 RBs and a flex WR/RB
My WR's are: Rowdy Roddy White, B. Marshall, Mike Sims-Walker, and Sidney rice.
in terms of Sneaky Depth I also have: Antonio Bryant and Anthony Gonzales.
Right now I am leaning to trading Roddy White cause I think everyone see's him as a big gun WR, while people don't respect how good Sims-Walker and Sidney Rice are.
My Rb's are A. Peterson, Kevin Smith, and sadly the entire raiders backfield McFadden, Bush, Fargas, so I need to pick up a legitimate RB as A. Peterson, and the raiders have a bye week together coming up.
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I have Leon Washington, currently he is on my bench although he could easily start over D. McFadden or Kevin Smith some weeks. (we start 2 rbs 2 wrs a flex (wr/rb)
my starting roster usually looks like this RB: A. Peterson, K. Smith, WR: Roddy White, (And then a choice of Antonio Bryant (quasi injured), L Coles (sucks), A. Gonzalez (injured) or Mike Sims Walker (deep sleeper/sucks)) and for my flex I start McFadden.
Leon Washington is currently a bench player but I could see him starting some weeks and he has a lot of potential.
I guess the question is Marshall upside worth making the trade if he gets his act together, currently he doesn't know that playbook and is only getting limited playing time.
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Yeh I think Garrard is the best option there as well.
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You still need a passport to cross the border flying or driving.
I heard they are flexible on the driving one (case by case basis) and if its your first time crossing the border without a passport, they will just give you a reminder that the next the time you will need a passport. but that may have changed
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Hey I am a university student and a retarded friend of mine is getting married in Vegas 5 days from now (I found out lastnight and was the first to find out after his parents). I can't fly from Toronto because my passport expired and I haven't ordered a new one. My plan was to drive down to Buffalo next thursday and catch a plane. Any suggestions on how to do the flights as cheap as possible? also any other tips re: first time traveler to VEgas?
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Fourteen teams, pretty standard scoring 2RBs, 2WR, 1B, 1TE and a flex WR/TE/RB.
Our snake draft works like this
round 1 1>14
round 2 14>1
Here is the change at the end of round 2, round 3 begins again with whoever got the 14th pick, and we go down the snake. After this we continue with the regular snake draft
Here is a sample:
Guy with #1 Overall pick - - first ten selections: 1,28,42,43,70,71,98,99,126,127
Guy with 7th overall pick - - 7,22,36,49,64,77, 92, 105,120,133
14th overall last pick - - 14,15,29,56,57,84, 85, 112,113,140
I understand this kind of an esoteric question, but i would appreciate your help as I won the draft lottery and I am not sure if its a blessing or a curse!
Thanks guys
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I have a really attractive girlfriend, this is unique for me. Its not that I normally date ugly girls, its just that I usually happen to date middle of the pack girls. (6's or 7s) girls who are decent looking (e.g. okay/good looking but usually not the hottest girls in the room)
But with my new GF (dating for about six months and the new car smell is starting to wear off so to speak) I humbly suggest I am a little out of my league. She fits the category of "The Hot Girl", all the guys at her workplace drool over her including one who I think has crossed the line, and when we are out its not uncommon to see guys blatantly checking her out or making obvious passes. To add to my trouble she enjoys the flattery & being at the center of attention - she dresses sexy, spends a lot of time getting ready always trying to look her best and is herself quite bubbly/flirty with most people.
As any red blooded male this is starting to get on nerves a bit, I have strictly avoided playing the jealousy card (even though that jealousy probably expresses what I am feeling to a tee) getting jealous or bitchy would make me look insecure. My current strategy is to feign ignorance and trying to make her good friends and co-workers think I'm a cool guy, you know like an everyman/ backslapper politician who is real easy going.
Obviously I know feeling sympathy for a guy who posts at a message board claiming: "woe is me I am dating a hot girl, and I just don't know what to do". But I prefer you think of me as a die hard bills fan who recently just happened to luck out and date a really attractive GF, I want to keep this going like a run in vegas or something.
Also feel free to flame/insult away as any post this lame deserves more than a few verbal barbs, but if anyone has decent advice feel free to contribute. So far my my ideas have been fairly simple e.g pre-emptive break up (George Costanza), start being a dick to everyone she works with/under cutting them by picking out their flaws and making fun of them when they are not around (not my personality but I can put on a facade), or just start blatantly flirting more with her GFs or some my friends that are girls and see if that does anything.
thanks.
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The Rat Pack
Brad Butler as Frank Sinatra
Kirk Chambers as Dean Martin
Geof Hangartner as Joey Bishop
Eric Wood as Peter Lawford
And Langston Walker as Sammy Davis jr.
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Clearly he is talking about the 2002 dismissal of Robo-Sack Rob Johnson, that or the the decision to let Bruce DeHaven go as special teams coach in 1999.
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yeah, if he had knees. If I recall correctly a couple of years back there was some interest but he wanted no part of it. He's fiercely loyal to Philly. Something to do with the wife and kids, he didn't want to uproot them.
Do you think he plays this season Tipster, or is he done?
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Jon Runyan is a free agent that the Bills front office should target IMO. Yes he is old and is coming off Micro Fracture surgery, but I think a move inside to guard might prolong his career. Also he would likely come cheap.
He is one of the best drive blockers around, he is a big ol mack truck when he gets his hands on you he usually moves you back. I attached a 2008 haloween article from espn.com that talked about players worse nightmares.
Espn Fear FactorTennessee Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan is regarded as a fearless player, aggressive in coverage and against the run. Ask him about a nightmare scenario, and it doesn't take him long to come up with one involving a notorious Philadelphia Eagles tandem."A screen with Jon Runyan with [brian] Westbrook behind him," he said. "One-on-one with Runyan with Westbrook behind him for a touchdown. Oh my goodness. I know I am going to have to go through him if it's for a touchdown. I'm just thinking about what body part I am going to use that could be injured. Shoulder? Neck? Back? Those three things I would be highly worried about with Runyan.
"I think if you go low on Runyan, he may drop the knee somewhere. So I think you have to stay high and just let him baptize you. That's probably what I would do. You know when you go backwards and your head hits first and you wake up as if somebody baptized you or blessed you? I think that would be Runyan right there, all day, every day."
Philadelphia's Runyan, the only active player in the league who suited up for the Houston Oilers, is in his 13th season. Finnegan has played against the Eagles only once, his rookie season in 2006, and encountered Runyan just once in that game.
"He plays the game at a high level, he's a nasty player," Finnegan said of the 6-7, 330-pound Runyan. "He got his hands on me when we played Philly and he threw me about 25 yards away from the play, and the play wasn't even around me. So I just know if he got his hands on me and he was the lead blocker on a screen that it could be detrimental to my health."
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Long Arms doesn't correlate well with Bench Press, 19 is disappointing but not horrible. I'd rather have a guy with 1.5 inch longer arms than someone who can do ten more reps on the Bench. Measuring his forty is ridiculous all that shows is how much effort he has put into training for it but seriously the only time Coaches should be looking at his TEN, and short Shuttle times from an evaluation standpoint.
Watch the tape this guy can play, I watched a lot of Alabama and he was a force to be reckoned with. Tape wise by far the best OT in the draft. Obviously his issue is motivation and drive who knows what will happen once you guarantee him a bunch of money, but I wouldn't rule out drafting just yet. He is a force of nature. I think they key here is to return to Andre Smith and have an individual workout with him, and flush out things in the interview process.
I would not take him off the Bills draft board after his pro day
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I remember watching the game. Springs did a terrific job against T.O that game and was a big part of why Washington won the game.
Fantasy Baseball Roto advice
in Off the Wall Archives
Posted
My friends convinced me to join their league, I know baseball fairly well but have never played the fantasy version of it, and never done roto either. Categories are standard (5x5) HR, AVG, R, RBI, SB + Wins, K's, Saves, ERA and WHIP
my question is with regards to Caps. My league has an innings pitched cap (1250) and a maximum number of games played at each position 162. is there a best practice for managing them?
I think meeting the innings cap would be fairly easy based on roster size (does that mean I should bench pitchers when they are in a mild slump or facing a tough lineup in a hitters balls park) in order to ensure I get the highest quality innings? if I'm struggling to meet the cap should I run out lower tier arms in order to increase my counting stats K's and Wins at the expense of E.R.A and WHIP
The 162 maximum number of games played may be difficult to reach, especially if I lose a few games due to injury or random day offs given to Vets, how do I monitor this category to ensure I get in all 162 games, do I want play inferior guys over my stud's at that position, for instance starting Bill Butler at 1b when Puljos has a day off?
Just re-read this post, I have officially entered the territory of sport dork. so thanks for your help and apologies to anyone whose day I ruined by having to read the aforementioned post.