Dr. K

I am amused by all the people who think the offense is going to be better. Kolb is not a better QB than Fitzpatrick. Fitz threw over 70 TD passes in the last three seasons. The Bills scored lots of points under Gailey's leadership. They didn't lose because they could not score. They lost because they couldn't stop anybody from scoring. All those who say the Bills "never ran the ball" or "ran shotgun on every play" or that the coaches "didn't want to be here" or a hundred other distortions and outright misrepresentations of facts, are suffering from amnesia. The Bills were sixth in the league in rushing yards per game last season. Spiller alone had over 1200 yards. Fitzpatrick passed for 3400 yards. They scored 28 or more points seven times last season. They averaged 22 points per game, not in the top half of the league but a respectable number, far more than they did under Jauron. They are likely to be fielding at least two rookie receivers. They lost their most reliable offense lineman. The o-line looked as good as it did in pass protection the last few years because Fitz, whatever his flaws as a QB, made quick and accurate reads and got he ball out in about two seconds on every play. Fred Jackson is getting old and coming off a knee injury. Do you expect them, with a new offense, a retread or rookie QB, and rookie receiving corps, to average over three touchdowns per game? The area where the Bills utterly stank last season was defense, and everything people have to say about how bad they and Wanstadt were in that area is true. So yes, I expect Pettine's defense to be better than Wanstadt's. It could hardly be worse. But I expect the offense to take a large step backward, no matter who is playing QB. Considering the likely improved defense and the likely worse offense, I expect about the same results next season. I have high hopes for EJ Manuel in the future, but I am not banking on better QB performance this season by the team as a whole. If they Bills win six as they did last season, they will be about where I expect them. I could be completely wrong about this, and if I so will be overjoyed. But the misrepresentation on the board of what went wrong last season is astonishing.

I can't say whether this is a good draft or not--Manuel looks intriguing and I think in general the picks make some sense on paper. But I do not see Marone getting 24 TDs out of the quarterback this season no matter who is playing back there. If the defense shapes up (its total failure last season was the reason the team failed and Gailey got fired, in my opinion) then maybe Marone won't need to get 24 TDs out of anyone. And whoever is back there won't have to play catch up late in games and risk so many picks. Still, there are holes on this team, and rookies aren't going to fill them in their first season. We'll see how the Bills look coming out of training camp, but right now I'm expecting 5 or 6 wins tops, and maybe less.

This is the absolute truth. If the Bills had ever managed a middle-of-the pack defense, they would have been in the playoff hunt at least two of Gailey's three seasons.

I still can't get over the Bills letting Levitre walk, then letting Rhinehart (a much lesser talent) go. With the Kolb-for-Fitz switch, the dumping of the young wide receivers (leaving them next to nothing on the roster to work with), I just see this franchise spinning its wheels. The draft is just going to be about plugging holes they created after the end of last season, with players no better and likely worse. You draft and develop a guy like Levitre, then just let him go. Same story as Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Ted Washington, Marshawn Lynch, Jason Peters, yada yada yada. I have generally been a positive outlook guy on this board, for many many years. I basically avoid hating on specific players and I don't like that form of fan behavior. But I have never been so bleak about an upcoming draft and season. I really hope they prove me wrong, but I have no confidence in this new management. I just have the fatal feeling that this loser franchise will never be good.

So if the Bills win three games instead of two then I've been proven wrong in my judgment of them as a team. Got it. This team is going to stink. So they win five, hell, even six games. They will still stink. The only thing at issue, in my mind, is the degree to which they will smell up the place. I will be glad to be proven wrong and will publicly eat crow here if they come anywhere near .500 next season.

Thank god for this breath of sanity. Those who think this new offense is going to put up numbers like Gailey's, either in the air OR on the ground, are delusional. The offensive line, which was less of a problem under Gailey's offensive plan, is going to be a major problem again. People are going to looking back to the good old days of Fitz at QB and Gailey as OC by the fourth game of the season, if not sooner. Why wouldn't any team stack the line, blitz like crazy, and defy the Bills to beat them? I haven't been this skeptical about the Bills decision making since Greggo dismantled the #2 defense in the league because he didn't like "fat guys" and went 3-13. Then drafted a 350-pound right tackle who was out of the league in five years.

This is beyond a joke. The new regime has officially jumped the shark. 2-14, if that. Make new holes in the roster, fill them with players no better than before. It's not treading water, it's drowning.

I see absolutely no evidence that there will be an "upgrade" at wide receiver, no matter who they draft. This is going to be a 3-win team this season, if that.

You are absolutely right. The morons here who think they are going to get 24 TDs a year (and fewer interceptions) out of just anybody are in for a shock. Fitz had and has holes in his game, but if the team didn't have to score 30 points a game to win, they would have made the playoffs at least two of the last three years.

I've been a fan since 1964. The teams in the late 60s and mid 80s were objectively worse. I remember the one-win seasons. I have been a diehard fan, and I will continue to be a fan, but having said that, I have zero, absolutely zero, confidence in the new coaching regime. I would love to be proven wrong, but I've finally given up the dogged optimism I have mustered over the last decade. Maybe Doug Marone will will turn out to be some sort of genius, in which case I will eat crow in public, but with the exception of Gregg Williams, a complete horse's a$$ whom I hated from day one, I can't think of a hire I have had less faith in going back to Harvey Johnson. Danny Crossman as ST coach? What does that suggest about Marone's judgment? Could he really think Ryan Nassib is going to be anything other than a backup QB in this league? Add in the way they have let Levitre walk and dumped David Nelson and a half dozen other things, and I'm just going to sit back and let them prove to me they know what they are doing. I see no evidence to inspire the belief that they do.

+1

way under

I would be unhappy for the Bills because in that offense he would rip them a new one every time they played. The Bills would see twice a year how bad they screwed up. I'd be happy for him, however.

I also have generally been an optimist--or at least backed most management decisions--but have little faith in this new regime. My take: 1) They have not resigned Levitre, and had to franchise Byrd. To let Levitre walk would indicate they are hopeless at retaining their best players. They've been doing this for more than ten years, creating holes they then have to draft to fill. 2) Letting Nelson go, after leaving Jones go, while retaining Brad Smith and Ruvell Martin. Another example of creating holes they have to fill. NO, I don't think either of these guys was great, but Nelson is a good receiver, and is going to play well for somebody else. You need guys like Nelson on any team. People say he can be replaced easily. Well, for one, I don't think it will be that easy to replace his production, and even if they can, spending time and money finding a replacement will be effort they could have better expended in adding good players--not subtracting them. 3) They hire a complete loser special teams coach. They retained nobody from the previous regime. Pettine as D.C. is the only choice here that gives me hope. I would rather have seen the Bills keep Gailey and hire Pettine. 4) I expect a significant decrease in offensive efficiency. Believe it or not, Gailey got a lot of scoring out of the personnel he had available. The Bills are not going to be able to grind out a running game with the backs and o-line they have. They were not a great short yardage running team. That 5-YPC average was an artifact of the spread offense and long breakaway runs from Spiller. Whoever they play at QB (including Fitz, if they keep him) is not going to do as well as Fitz did in the last three years. Gailey got 24 passing TDs per year out of Fitzpatrick. I expect the offense to revert to Jauron-level somnolence. 5) Dorin Dickerson? 6) I do not buy into the mystique of the "tough guy" coach. Just reminds me of Greggo with his macho posturing of how he "hates fat guys" (like Ted Washington) and his stupid air horns. That worked out great, didn't it. Bill Walsh was not a "tough guy." Every coach who has a rep for being a hard ass does not end up being Vince Lombardi. In fact, most fall flat on their faces. What this comes down to is that I expect the offense to decline considerably, if not drastically, and the linebacker-less defense to perhaps be better (its hard to imagine it worse) because of coaching but not enough to make up the difference. I have not seen decisions so far in the off season to warrant anything resembling optimism. You will not believe how good Gailey is going to look in about ten months. JMHO

Right. They are just opening up holes in the roster for no discernible reason.

Totally agree. I'm beginning to think that Marone is Gregg Williams II.

I have to say, I have no confidence in this coaching staff, except for the defensive guy they got from the Jets. The David Nelson decision is inexplicable to me (and I'm not saying he's a great receiver, but you don't get better by ditching guys like him on a team that has spotty receiving to begin with). The complete loser hired as special teams coach. I expect a 3-win season at this point, with not much prospect of it getting better as time goes on. I'm thinking this is another Gregg Williams staff. It's funny, because I tend to be an optimist w/regard to the Bills. So maybe I'll be wrong about this too and they'll make the playoffs.

I have to say that despite all the hosannahs from most of the people in this forum, I have grave misgivings about this new coaching staff. This seems like an idiot move to me. One where they think they are being so smart but they are not.

My point was that he made the best use (on offense) of the talent he had. Not that the Bills could not have used a better QB. I think you can make a case that he could have used CJ better. But all those guys who thought that because CJ was averaging 5 yards a carry they should run him on third and short were idiots. The earlier opined that Gailey made terrible use of the players he had. That's the thing I disagree with.

I disagree. Gailey evaluated offensive talent well and got as much out of the players on that side of the ball as could reasonably be expected. Do you think, with the QB and receivers on his teams, somebody could have gotten a better passing game than the Bills did? If he'd had a decent defensive coordinator then he'd still be coach of the Bills. I think people are going to be surprised at the steps backward the offense is going to take under this new regime. Maybe a better defense will make up for it, but this quote from Olson about, "So, our job as a coaching staff will be to identify the skill set of the players, who are our best players, what do they do best, and how can we put them in position to be successful and do what they do best." is standard boilerplate talk from anyone who takes over a team. Every failed coach the Bills have had in the least ten years has said the same thing.

Most experts calling for a close game either way. I'm feeling a San Francisco blowout; the Ravens get behind and can't catch up, Flacco throws interceptions. SF 38-13.

I completely agree with this post. When the Bills fired De Haven the first time, the next year they saw a drastic decline in special teams the next year. This is just change for the sake of change. We'll see how it works out.

Do you expect Marrone to get 71 touchdown passes out of whoever plays QB in the next three years?

That's the best case scenario. I hope you are right. We'll see. I tend to be an optimist, but I'm not convinced we are going to see better QB play, or a more effective offense--I think it's likely the new offense will not score as well--but we don't even know who the QB, or other crucial offensive personnel, will be, so that's premature. It would be hard for the defense not to be better, though. I expect a distinct improvement there. Special teams, I'd be happy if they managed to hold their own.

This seems pretty accurate to me. I think Gailey's major mistake was hiring Edwards, and then hiring Wanstadt (and I was behind the Wanstadt hire, thinking it would make all the difference. It did. It got Gailey fired.)