Koufax

There are many ways to insult the Fish without using intolerant phrases like that, but I agree with the general sentiment. I'm going to be rooting against the Jets more than for the Dolphins, since it is impossible to put on an orange and teal sweatshirt and pretend to actually like Miami.

Only if what we by having Nate instead of Ashton - McGee is worth more than what else we could get for that money. Spending "whatever it takes" because "we gotta keep him" (not your words, just a general sentiment) is something Marv is smart enough to avoid, and make each decision based on pros and cons. Because Nate is better than Ashton and McGee and KT (also a free agent) he adds value to our team. But he adds value based on how much better than Ashton/McGee he is since both of those players are signed and one sits if Nate is back. I don't think the value of that difference is worth as much as 50 mil would get us as a guard upgrade over Preston or Gandy, or what 25 mil each would get us at two upgraded positions, etc. Spend smart, draft smart, and play hard and smart. I'd love to have Nate back if it works, and think we should make a pretty big offer to try to keep him. But I think it is very likey that Dan Snyder will offer Nate more than he is WORTH to the Bills. In that case thank him for his service and move on to building a Super Bowl winner without him.

Sorry if it has been mentioned elsewhere, but who has the Ravens-Colts and Ravens-Pats tiebreakers? Is there also a chance that the Ravens could have #3 certain going into the final week? (Pats lose, Ravens lose, Colts win, 10-5,11-4,12-3, if Baltimore were to have tiebreaker with Pats and not with Colts this would lock in #3). I seem to see in the scenario above Baltimore winning the tie breaker with New England based on conference record, and I show Indy beating Baltimore based on common opponents (since at best Baltimore could tie conference record in week 17): Indy: TEN W, DEN W, BUF W, TEN L, CIN W, 4-1 .800 Bal: DEN L, CIN W, TEN W, CIN L, BUF, 3-2 or 2-3 So if Baltimore and New England lose, and Indy and San Diego win, Baltimore would have the #3 seed locked up. That means that they would want to rest people against the Bills, and also means if the Bills win the Bills would go back and play them again in the playoffs. Interesting stuff. I don't worry too much about whether the Ravens will need the win or not, so the Baltimore assured of #4 outlined earlier or the assured of #3 I'm trying to show here doesn't make a huge difference, but it is interesting to play around with. Still, just beat the Titans, and then root against the Jets (since it would be too hard to root for the Fish), and things could line up pretty well.

Depends if you are going Vegas or common sense. I have the Pats as a common sense favorite over the Jags as a better team playing better football in a non-hostile road venue. The 50/50 is definitely not counting the Bills winning. I'm definitely going to be rooting for them, but smart cash is not on the Bills beating Baltimore in Baltimore in a game that will likely matter to Baltimore. The Bills are definitely the favorite against Tennessee (maybe 60%) and definitely the underdog at Baltimore (maybe 30% if Baltimore if the game matters to Baltimore). But the 50/50 on winning out getting the Bills into the playoffs sounds about right and is a pretty exciting thing.

I don't think that is certain, but appears very likely. It comes down to the strength of victory tie breaker which is complicated and changes based on the wins and losses in the next two weeks of each team the Bengals or Bills beat all year. Go Indy!

Interesting observations about the O-Line. Preston needs to head back to the bench with a good RG, and Gandy is very much on the bubble and I'd love to find an improvement at LG and let Gandy go. I agree that we can't overvalue our talent because it got reshuffled, and think our guard play is weaker than people realize, and Pennington is still a work in progress (but warrants a 2007 starting job). So Right Guard is my top priority. CB if Nate goes, DT, LG are all positions to improve on. Having McCargo as a DT and Youboty as a CB, and a potentially passable Gandy at LG prevents us from having to force these "have to take a DT in the first round even if it is Bunkley, have to take a Tackle in the first round even if it is Justice" and allow us to find the best value and not reach in the draft or overpay in free agency as a result of panic. The good news is Marv and Dick have shown to be much more level headed than us, and I expect they will have another very good off season.

I was more excited early about Sherman than Jauron, and had my doubts on Jauron early, wondering if he was up to the challenge. I have not wavered in my optimism for Marv, JP, and the Bills. Clements has genuinely surprised me recently although I was never particularly critical. I have thought we were on the right track even when we were 2-5, and I saw a 7-9 light at the end of the tunnel. However being alive in the playoff race with two weeks to go and having 7-9 the worst case scenario is something I believed when we were 0-0, but I would not have expected when we were 2-5.

Right, but that final outcome also requires an impressive Bills win over the Ravens (something already included in the Bengals number), so I have to think if we are both 9-7 we are likely to win this one. It will not be certain until all is said and done, but I am not worried about that one. Edit: Ozymandius just beat me with much more complete information on this uncertainty. Thanks!

This is assuming a two way tie only, not saying that we need Denver to lose both to finish ahead of them, right? Because I thought if KC, Denver, and Buffalo finish in a three way tie at 9-7, KC eliminates Denver right? If that is correct, there is also this scenario: 5. Buffalo wins out Jets lose to Miami KC beats Oakland and Jacksonville Denver loses to Cin but beats SF Doesn't that put Cin 5th, Bills 6th? Just wondering because that would be an important alternative route since none of your scenarios allow Denver to lose to Cincinnati and beat the 49ers, where this one does. Just wanted to add my two cents and get corrected if I've missed something.

EXACTLY. I also don't think we are in a critical situation if he leaves and are forced into a high draft pick. I think Ashton will be ready to step in (clearly an expected loss of performance, but also an expected good player) and we can line up with McGee and Ashton. I really like Nate, and especially how well he has played in recent weeks, but he leaves an opening where we specifically have a young high talent player being groomed each week in practice. Not as good as keeping Nate of course, who is a premier player, but certainly a backup plan to keep us from paying Nate more than his value to us. Since we already have Ashton on the bench now, Nate's value to us is how much better he is than Ashton (or than McGee if you think Ashton is better than McGee and we could start Ashton and Nate). I might be misevaluating, but I think that with the market Nate will have it is very likely that Nate over Ashton is worth less to us than Premier RG over Preston or Premier DT over Anderson or Fletcher over his alternative, and I would not want our contract with Nate to prevent us from addressing those other places. You will also notice, that even though they often get made fun of when Troy Brown is forced to play, New England has been a team to not overpay big name corners, and it works out for them. Losing Nate would hurt, but probably not quite as much as people think, especially if those dollars are well spent. Again, I really want Nate back and hope it happens, but if his price makes him overvalued compared to other players and positions, we can improve our team MORE by not breaking the bank to keep him.

Thanks for the report. Good stuff. What still remains very interesting is that we can make the playoffs in several different ways if we win out. One is Bengals #5, us #6. Two is Denver #5, us #6. I think it is still mathematically possible to have Jets #5, us #6 but much trickier. I think your most interesting observation is that the NE-JAX game isn't so crucial, and we don't really benefit much with a Jax loss. The only way a Jax loss there helps us is if they beat KC the next week AND Denver loses to both Cincinnati AND the 49ers. I think I'm still going to be rooting for New England since it gives us a back door with a KC loss, but the impact is pretty small. The other interesting thing is that after tonight's Colts win, there is very little before our Titans game is over that matters a great deal, so it will be easy to focus on that game without scoreboard watching, and then if the Bills win start to look at the other stuff (CIN-DEN and NYJ-MIA specifically). I can't wait. As I mentioned before my biggest one step at a time goal is beating the Titans and having the playoff hopes mathematically alive when we head into Baltimore, because every week that this "playoff scenarios" topic has continued it has become more likely and more meaningful and more exciting.

Preston is the weak link right now, like. Gandy is holding his own, but has no big upside. I haven't seen anything from Duke to indicate he is more than a solid three position backup (not a bad thing at all, and very valuable, just not the road grater RG we should have), although I would like to see him So I think a RG is a near must to upgrade this team, and a LG would be great IF we find a better option than Gandy that doesn't cost us more than it is worth. The really nice surprise is Pennington, who continues to improve (and I think suffers in the running game by being lined up next to Preston). As a very intelligent 6'7" 23 year old, I am very hopeful and optimistic for his future, and think he has proven we don't need to go after starting tackles this off season, and can focus on the guards. Fowler isn't a dominator, but I'm happy with him overall, and don't want change at that position where veteran smarts really make a difference. True we aren't a 3rd and 1 QB sneak team partly because of him, but I want to see him stay there. I could see some eventual competition from Preston whose better size and youth could make him leapfrog Fowler on the depth chart down the road.

I hope we get him back, and am hopeful that with the team surge he will wan to stay. But if we get into an irrational spending contest with Dan Snyder we are going to lose (whether we win the contest or not). Just like when A-Rod left the Mariners for the Rangers for $252 million, it was unfortunate for the Mariners, but it would have been worse to pay him $253 and keep him. I really really want Nate back, and think we are in a position to offer him a LOT of money. But if the Redskins get crazy, I think we can find a way to move on, and think putting Ashton in for Nate is not a big enough downgrade to merit completely breaking the bank and having our hands tied for being able to make other moves. I don't view this as a Pat Williams moment at all. We will definitely court Nate, treat him right, and make him a big offer, and hope he accepts it. If he doesn't take it we will pencil in Ashton and Terrance as our corners, and then look for other places to improve our team to compensate for the downgrade at corner.

Sounds to me like they are ready for a week where things don't go their way. As for the grades, I will take the Bill's performance over the Titans any day. We played a huge game taking care of business on both sides of the ball. Tennessee took advantage of (to their credit) three avoidable mistakes by Jacksonville, and other than those plays which fell in their lap were dominated on both sides of the ball.

My glass has been half full since before training camp. I think over the last few weeks somebody topped it off while I wasn't looking, because it is at least 3/4 full now. Playoffs this year are a nice dream, but what is tremendously valuable for next year's team is playing games that count late in December. That is a huge thing for these kids, and if Price hadn't gotten his feet down in Texas (or any of a million other little things that could have gone against us recently), this team would be 6-8, still progressing, still talented, but without the opportunity to play meaningful games to end the season. Having that opportunity is a huge windfall for us, and I hope we can keep it alive one more week.

I love all the logic and tie breakers, but what it really comes down to is this: We need Buffalo and Miami to win next week. The other stuff can shuffle in a bunch of different ways, and I look forward to getting a full list of who to root for (starting with Indy at home tomorrow), but everything else has options and permutations and alternatives. Also, is it possible for the Jets to get in at #5 (beating Miami?), and us to still make it by both the pass-the-Bengals and pass-the-Broncos scenarios playing out? Just curious if this is an option, or if Jets-Fish is really a do or die for us... Also it will be interesting that the Bills play before the CIN-DEN and NYJ-MIA games next week, and before the SF-DEN game in two weeks. That reduces the focus on scoreboard watching somewhat, and reduces the chance of finding out halfway through that the game that you thought mattered doesn't matter so much. In the end, the hardest piece of the puzzle is definitely beating Baltimore, but the single most exciting and important thing is getting a chance for that game to matter. Much better than expectations were at the start of the season.

Too soon to worry, but clearly Ravens could be locked in at #3, or the game could mean difference for either seeding advantage (1v2, 3v4) or by advantage (2v3). Obviously our favorite scenario is if they are locked in at #3, but they aren't going to roll over either way. Right now I'm more focused on getting to that game at 8-7 and having it matter, not what the odds are that we see some backups (which doesn't really have a great history for Bills final weeks anyways).

So a bunch has unfolded since this scenario was first laid out, including the Chiefs losing to SD a few minutes ago. Now it seems we need: NYJ loss to MIA AND 2 of the following 3 things: -1 JAX loss (NE, @KC) -2 DEN losses (or the KC tiebreaker thing?) (CIN, SF) -2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker (@IND, @DEN, PIT) I think a Jacksonville loss is very likely in one of those games (without it we need all four of the DEN and CIN results to go our way). The interesting thing is that next week Cincinnati plays Denver, which guarantees one of the above games goes our way (and also that one goes against us). If Cincinnati wins tomorrow they get a big strength of victory boost, so that might be impossible and we might need two Denver losses (or 1-1 with two KC wins). The other thing to note is that if we win against Tennessee next week and Miami beats the Jets, we will be alive going into the final week no matter what else happens. Go Bills!

Depends how they get there. We know how Buffalo would get there, but the other guys have numerous paths to get there.

Well, we got the Bills win and the Jax loss. So if the Chargers can beat KC tonight we will need: NYJ loss to MIA AND 2 of the following 3 things: -1 JAX loss (NE and @KC, so seems pretty likely) -2 DEN losses (or the KC tiebreaker thing?) -2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker Every week that passes makes it more possible, it is still a dream more than a likely scenario, but we are going into the second to last week with our playoff hopes still alive, and have a pretty good shot of going into the last week of the season with something to play for. Whether we make it or not, making these last two weeks count is fun, and I think very good for the development of this young team. If anybody has anything to add to the logic, please go ahead, but it will probably be enough to root for Arizona and San Diego today, Indy tomorrow, and then do all the math on Tuesday.

Distance of the actual pass, not yards gained. He was at about the 36 when he threw it (thanks Tivo), and it made it just past the goal line in the air. Two yards shorter by my estimation than the incomplete by Vick on the last possession last night, but completing it counts for bonus points. I have said all along that Cutler will be a very good QB, but I'm still glad we didn't pick him.

A very nice surprise. I think Preston should head back to the bench and be replaced by a big aquisition, but Pennington has the tools and it is nice to see the on field performance improve. It would take a very good tackle to be considered an upgrade this offseason, and I think that should be a low priority for us. If McCargo and Youboty can contribute next year this becomes one of the most impressive draft classes I have ever seen.

I don't think that is a sign of a tough game. It will be a tough game anyway, but I'd be more worried if they had three big scoring drives. Instead they managed less than 100 yards passing and less than 50 yards rushing and only three offensive points. If they don't get the lucky bounces of the turnovers (or we can protect the ball), they have an offense that finished with 98 net yards against our D that just threw a shutout. Still a tough game, but I like our chances and the matchup.

Beat, Peters-like, or future pro bowler, I can wait on. What Pennington has done is move the position off of the must replace. I now think our #1 goal is getting Preston back to his backup role with a monster RG. Then if a LG option better than Gandy shows up take it, otherwise we only upgrade one line position in the off season. I really like not having glaring holes that we have to patch, allowing us to have an intelligent off season getting the best values available and not trying to patch holes and reaching on players at those positions.

I don't agree at all. I think our talent is much higher than that. I agree with the Shaud and Anderson and Reyes. Everett has been underachieving and I would liek to see more out of the TE position. Nate, a #3 DT (or #2 or #1 if we can find someone better than McCargo and Larry), a stud RG, a pass catching TE, linebacker depth to groom for the future, and then whatever best values are out there.