Koufax

Go Jets...it will make our loss less heart breaking. But forget the Royal bashing. Our pass blocking TE is not to be confused with Gonzalez or Gates. A drop would have been more painful, but not toe tapping like Roscoe and Price in recent weeks does not make him the goat. Please see the 215 yards rushing we gave up...

Thanks for the added info. No worrying about the tie breakers yet, but I have to think our strong strength of schedule will work against us among teams with the same record. Again I'm rooting for the Bills to win on Sunday, since that win would be worth more than a few spots in the draft. But I'm also rooting for: PIT, TEN, GB, CAR, ATL, STL, NYG all of which turn otherwise meaningless games into Bills draft position advantages. Our range currently stands at 8-22 which is a huge difference through all rounds. We are probably most realistically looking at 12-16 which should lead to some good pickups for Marv and Dick.

JP has struggled behind this line and been sacked often, and it took a big reshuffling stressing pass protection to get him back on track. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Pennington, and I hope Fowler holds down that position until someone else is ready to step in, but our line is one good, one average, and three below average players. Watch a game (or Tivo, etc), and try watching just Pennington and Preston. We don't run right, and there is a reason for it. Preston is the weakest link right now, and will be replaced as starter this offseason. Pennington and Gandy will rock/scissors/paper to see who is #2 in line to be replaced, with Pennington having the youth and size advantage going for him. Congratulations to the line for picking up the pieces after our three game losing streak, but please realize that it is not a good line. Willis was much better than A-Train behind this line, but I am pleased with A-Train's performance and am happy to have him as a #2 back. Corey Dillon had a much better line than this, and Barry Sanders practically played independently from his line, and is the single greatest talent any team has ever had in terms of creative agility to gain yards when there are no big holes to run through. WM might not be here in 2008. But showed a ton of guts this year, is a good back, and is our guy in 2007. We have no more RB controversy than we have QB controversy. He will do better next year with better health likely, with a better line stabilized, and a more mature passing attack. I think after next year if he goes somewhere else we will have "must sign WM" threads and we will be sad when if he leaves.

Did you guys watch the Tennessee kick into the wind? From four or five yards shorter by a guy who had the leg to beat Indy with a 60 yarder, and the wind absolutely slammed it right before it went over the crossbar. Looked like a Barry Zito curveball as it dropped just barely over the crossbar. I was disappointed on the final series, all four plays, but that was a less than 50/50, and maybe less than 1 in 10 field goal to hit. The play broke down and JP had to heave it before getting tackled after running like a mad man. Thomas and Peters both got off their initial blocks to make secondary blocks, but Pennington looked like he was following the play after it happened and Gandy and Fowler locked up together on one defender. I am sorry they tackled Lee after only one yard on 2nd down, but that basically counts as a run. I wish they knew if they were going for it on 4th before they ran the 3rd down play, and I wish they had run Willis on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. He gets the ball three times he gets the six yards he needs, and that is a mistake in judgment just like not running him twice when it was 3rd and 1 earlier. But hindsight is 20-20, and we were one big JP throw away from not caring about it. Considering the big throws he has made to get us in this position, I can't fault them too much even though I disagree. Another plus is that if Rian had kicked and missed he would have been blamed undeservedly (the guy who twice missed kicks to cause the team miss the fieldgoal). Norwood's 47 yarder on grass wasn't an easy kick and he is now the devil. With Rian coming back and being a part of this team for years to come, I'd rather not put him out there as the sacrificial lamb when kicking does not give us the best chance to win (I think converting the 4th and 5 is higher probability than that kick). Unfortunately we didn't execute, and the result is a loss just like had Roscoe or Peerless not gotten their toes down on their Jax and Hou winning catches. No fun to lose and be eliminated, but you can't win 'em all and this team had a good season and this offense had a good game.

I have not seen the play, so any of my comments should be taken with a grain of salt, but remember this is our blocking tight end. I wish he got the second foot down, and maybe he should have, but after Roscoe's catch against the Jags and Price's against the Texans, I think we have gotten our fair share of toe tapping breaks, and can't hang Royal out to dry based on this one play. He is not Gates or Gonzalez. He is a solid tight end I am very happy to have.

I think this line of reasoning is off. It suggests Willis hasn't given everything he has had all season long. I think Willis has shown a lot this year. He has battled through injuries, illness, and a right side that forces him to run just to the left. He impressed me this year with his guts. I don't know if he is the superstar we had hoped for, but I don't want any of our resources going to running back this off season. If Willis walks after 2007 we can get a good running back next off season, and it is the ultimate position that doesn't need grooming, experience, or learning a system, so it can be plugged in pretty quickly. Guards, a DT, support at LB, a pass catching TE or big possession receiver, but RB is pretty low on my shopping list.

Bring in a top 3 DT to push Kyle to #4, and whether he is the #3 or the #1 guy we are better for it. I'd love him to be a little bigger even if he isn't Ted Washington because of our scheme. Big and quick would be nice. At LB I can see adding someone to the mix, and while this is a position I would not be targeting in the first round, if there is a surprise available who is the most talented guy we can pick, I can live with first round LB (or DT), even though my first choice would be OG at #1. So some additions, but starting camp with Ellison, TKO, London, and Angelo all at 100%, and McCargo healthy and a 2nd year Kyle, I don't think we need a drastic overhaul. Our scheme works as a unit, and I expect the unit as a whole to progress in year two even at the positions where there is no personnel change.

That may well be our first pick, but our first priority is offensive guard. We need to add a tackle in one form or another who can be in the top 3 in our rotation with Larry and McCargo making Kyle a high energy #4. If that is the top guy with our #1 pick, or a bargain in the third round or a free agent, that is fine. But McCargo coming back makes DT a lower priority than OG where we have two below average players. We can get a guard in free agency or with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, however the off season plays out to get the best talent at the best value. Our Run D is the #1 reason we lost this game and several other games this season, and between the line and linebackers it needs to be addressed. But a year two of the system should see improvements for Kyle (who should hit the weight room with the energy he shows on the field), for Larry (who is in the prime of his career but will benefit from better support and came on stronger in the second half), for McCargo (who hopefully has been studying and learning hard while he has been recovering, and should still have a bright future). Add someone other than Andserson (preferably a little larger even if still "quick" for the scheme) and I think we will be alright. I think that the linebackers weren't as responsible for letting three yard runs turn into 6 yard runs, but they were responsible for a lot of 6 yard runs turning into 14 yard runs. We dealt with the injury bug here. London isn't Ray Lewis, but I think he is a strong player and shouldn't be maligned for what happened as a team this year. I think TKO will be better at the start of camp than he was for this year, but if he cannot prove the full recovery as I hope, he might lose his spot. Ellison is encouraging, and Crowell is still good, and I think the two of them can be expected to be better football players in 2007 with their maturing. I would still be open to adding a special talent at this position (as at DT), but it isn't a position that can be upgraded with pretty good players.

#3: Bills settled for field goals several times where they could have scored touchdowns (especially the first drive...1st and goal from the 3, run the ball three times, or at least the first two). Spills over into #2 below, but still a number of situations where executing the called plays better would have won the game for us. #2: Playcalling/coaching: passing on two of the three plays from the 3 yard line on the opening drive, 3rd and 3 in the second and we kick the FG and give them the ball back with enough time for the TD. Fourth quarter 3rd and 1 after Willis has just gotten 9 on the first two runs, and we pass (no points on a drive starting at their 44!). Last drive throwing on 2nd and 6 (at least a short possession pass), and the throwing again on 3rd and 5. If we knew were weren't going to kick from there (which we had to know, but didn't), we should have given Willis three tries to pick up six yards. #1: Run D. If you give up 215 rushing yards you are supposed to lose. A big weakness all year and it cost us big today. Let's not hang our heads in shame. This season was a success as a building season with a young team under a new coach and new system. We are lined up to have a big off season and be a playoff team in 2007. But first let's beat Baltimore and cost them a bye just to leave our mark on the season. Merry Christmas to all.

Yeah, I'm more disappointed with 2nd and 5 and 3rd and five in terms of play calling (although I'm disappointed in all three for results). I think two Willis runs would have meant a first down, but if not they would have meant an easier field goal or an easier fourth down try. But had JP completed one of those three passes I wouldn't have worried about the play calling, so we are judging hindsight based on the results as well, not just the right decisions at the time. I still think this team is on the right course and in the right hands, even if not every call or play or player is perfect. I look forward to the team playing to win for 60 minutes in Baltimore, and then getting ready for a 2007 as a playoff contender.

Yeah, I want to see the Bills win at Baltimore independently of any of this stuff as I said in the original post. I'm talking about what else happens other than the Bills game, but that's mostly the sad leftover energy after worrying about the tie breaker with Cincinnati. So to be clear, I'm not talking about advantages of losing in Baltimore, and hope we win that game. I'm talking about other outcomes that could affect where we pick, since 8 to 24 is a pretty big difference, and we can keep an eye on unrelated games to see how things will work out. Of course you can wait until next week, or wait until the day of the draft, but I'm going to start thinking about the 2007 Bills a little more now that we have been eliminated.

I was hoping to be waiting a while before even caring about this, but... Let me be clear. I am NOT rooting for the Bills to lose to Baltimore, even though I think that will be a tough game against one of the best teams in football on the road playing for a bye. If it comes down to a last second play for the Bills to win or lose I won't have the slightest "damn, this kick is going to cost us x spots in the draft", because a team win is worth more than any draft positioning. But we are going to finish 8-8 or more likely 7-9, and with the tight bunching in the middle (especially the NFC) that could mean a big range for our pick. Teams with 9+ wins who we are ahead of in the draft: #21-32: NE, DEN, SD, IND, BAL, DAL, CHI, NO, NYJ, PHI, SEA, KC #14-20 TEN 8-8 JAX 8-8 CIN 8-8 PIT 8-8 NYG 8-8 CAR 8-8 Stl 8-8 #11-13 GB 7-8 (@CHI) Atl 7-8 (@PHI) BUF 7-9 #9-10 MIA 6-9 (@IND) SF 6-9 (@ DEN) Teams with 10+ losses who the Bills are definitely behind in the draft #1-8: DET, TB, ARI, WSH, OAK, HOU, CLE, MIN Edit: Updates and overhaul Edit: PIT win, KC win, TEN loss, Bills Loss

I've listened to every JP press conference all year. The kid has heart and will be a very good QB. I'm excited to see the progress in the second half this season, and it is going to be fun to go into the off season having that position locked up.

That was my least favorite play of the game. Definite run situation. If Fowler isn't the guy to push for a sneak then line up in I and power it. But that is yard you have to get on the ground.

Yeah, dog the guy who goes 5 for 5 plus two extra points. That would have been a very tough field goal. I wanted them to go for it, but I have a bigger problem with not running on 2nd and 6 and 3rd and 6. I agree that there might be some advantage to a guy who thinks he can make every kick and wants to kick it from 60, but I'll take Rian with the game on the line.

Hey chicken little, the sky isn't falling. Tough loss today, which prevents us from getting our hopes crushed next week (Baltimore at home with a win meaning a bye was not going to be an easy win). This year's team was not a playoff team and was not supposed to make the playoffs. I'm very excited they stepped up and played quality football in the second half to make the season fun and give these guys a taste of playing with the season on the line which will carry for next year. 1) Don't ditch the cover-2. Dick knows more than we do, it isn't the scheme but the execution of it, and we will be better next year. 2) O-Line is still our biggest need, and I would love to see two new high level guards, but that might be easier said than done, so at least one. 3) D-Line did not play very well this season, but Kyle will be better as the #4, McCargo will be back as one of the top 3, and Larry is fine as one of the top 3. I would like to add one to be in the top three in the rotation, which can be the #1 or the #3 depending on what's available and where our best value is. 4) DJ did not have a perfect season, and I was one of the first to rip him today when we should have run the ball (3rd and 1 in the second quarter, and three straight plays if needed on the last series after 2nd and 4. But he gets his players to play for him, is teaching a very young team a new system, and had better than expected results. He is not without fault, and not in the Bellichick elite, but is a solid coach who I hope sticks around for a long time. 5) There is nothing "typical" or lack of "magic at the ralph" about this. It was football, and we got beaten by a very hot team playing some bad D. 6) The 2007 Bills will be a playoff contender from the start, which this team was not. Hopefully we aren't counting tie breaker scenarios with two weeks to play, but are talking playoff seeding.

Tough loss, we still weren't going to make the playoffs (Baltimore playing at home with a bye on the line) and I'm still excited about 2007. But that was DJ's most costly playcalling all year. He gave that game away, and I hope he steps up and admits it. Not running on the 3rd and 1 earlier set up the VY touchdown, but the final drive made me want to cry. 2nd and 6 after a big willis run. That is run, run, and first down or FG attempt. Instead it was a numbing pass, pass, pass. Absolutely rediculous. Everybody has bad games, but Dick has to admit this one and be blasted for it. That way we can forgive and forget, thank him for a great overall job on the year, and move on to 2007. Let's now root for the 7-9 teams to win to improve draft position (I still want to beat the Ravens, but I want the other teams to have favorable results separately from our game).

Still offline. Hopefully just a matter of minutes and not somebody off at a Christmas party instead of streaming for us...

Right now the biggest thing is to make week 17 mean something. What scenario plays out, what other teams do, what tie breakers play out, and whether we can stun a very good Baltimore team is secondary both chronologically (we play week 16 first) and in terms of priority. There is a big difference between each of the three scenarios: eliminated this week, eliminated next week, and playoffs, and it seems pretty likely we can move past the first of those options get a chance to play meaningful football down to the last play of the season whether next Sunday in Baltimore or next month in Miami. And that is very different for this young team than it was for the team that lost to Pittsburgh's backups a few years ago. This team is on the upswing and playoff contention is coming ahead of schedule which will really boost this team in 2007 whether they make it or not.

We want KC to win because they need to win both of their remaining games for us to finish ahead of a 9-7 Denver, and because Cincinnati beat Oakland, so an Oakland win strengthens the Strength-Of-Victory tie breaker that will be used if Cincinnati and Buffalo are both 9-7. 20-9 KC in the 4th...Go Chiefs! Edit: KC wins...another item checked off the Bills playoff checklist

Go Chiefs! (Sorry for those of you without the NFL Network, but it probably isn't going to be the greatest game, but just another check in our playoff dreams checklist). Whether we can actually beat Baltimore next week and everything else goes right is very much up in the air, but giving this team a week 17 game that matters is a great Christmas gift for any Bills fan, and a big step toward this team maturing into a Super Bowl contender over the next couple years.

Just to add some math to the puzzle to figure this out, assuming the BUF, NE, MIA, and DEN wins this weekend... Right now Buffalo's 9 victories add up to 62 SOW wins on the books. We have assumed in the best case scenario for this weekend that Miami wins, so we are to 64, and GB plays min so we are to 65. If Miami wins and we win out, the lowest our SOW could possibly be is 65 if everything else went as wrong as possible. Right now Cincinnati could conceivably make it to 69 wins since they have to beat Pit for this to happen (Pit beating Bal since they have two Pit wins on their 9-7). They have 57 in the bank right now, but since they have Bal v Pit, and Oak v KC and NO v CAR on their schedule the lowest they could mathematically have is 60 So far based on the above, they could still win this tie breaker as much as 69-65. If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh this drops to 68-66 worst case scenario for the Bills. And we are talking about a bunch of games which would have to go in their favor for this to happen: So Cincinnati can be from 60 to 69, and Buffalo will be at least 65 before anything else goes our way. This could easily be wrapped up this weekend allowing us to control our own fate, but is still not a certainty. We should be rooting for Baltimore, Atlanta, NYG, and Tampa Bay this weekend to help make this probably a definitely heading into the final week.

7-9 or 9-7 this is a successful season. The team has grown a lot, learned a lot about itself, and is poised for a productive off season and a good 2007. So whether they have two bad Sundays or make the playoffs, it is the same team here, with a lot of good things going, but still some holes and some youth. But that said, there is a huge difference to the development of the team left in these final weeks. Playing down to the last minute of the last game in Baltimore or of making the miracle run to the playoffs has its own value and will improve how this team is able to compete in 2007. So yes, a success, but these last 8 quarters (or playoffs if they happen) will have an impact by the taste it leaves in everyone's mouth and the confidence levels it will inspire in the players.

I think Rivers and Cutler (the other QB discussion topic) are going to be excellent quarterbacks, but I am very happy to have JP, and think he might end up being the best of the bunch, but even if he isn't, he is going to be a good quarterback and we can start focusing on right guard, etc. and building a super bowl winner. But did you say 63.4%? You must be mistaken. This is inaccurate 49% Losman we are talking about who could never throw that accurately. There must be some misprint in the stats and it has nothing to do with the typical progression of developing quarterbacks who turn into stars. Go Bills! Six more wins until we are Super Bowl champs! (okay, I'll take one more win and we can play no meaningless games all year)

Remember that guy with the radio show where he said "Yeah, things are pretty good. We should stay the course and keep on chugging. That's all I've got today, please tune in next week." ? No, because it doesn't happen. The primary goal of talk radio is to get people talking and stir the pot to get people calling in, interested, wanting to agree/disagree. I think talk radio is fun entertainment, but rarely informative or particularly intelligent and insightful.