Koufax

Depends on the HC, but I think Fitz starts the season and who we pick at #8 or #40 starts the season on the bench, and plays later in the season. I will be very disappointed if Gailey is here, and I will be very disappointed if we make it to our third pick without having already selected a QB, but I think we are unlikely to draft a day 1 QB, unlikely to go after a free agent better than Fitz and our pick, and unlikely to put Thigpen or Jackson ahead of Fitz to win games.

Aaron Williams over Dalton/Kaepernick is the only pick I am unhappy with as far as QB is concerned (although thinking about Mallett wouldn't have been out of line). I have a problem with some picks, but I'm happy with Buddy as a whole, and think that having some continuity over a housecleaning is okay.

I'm fine with Buddy staying unless we were going to get someone particular (Polian) or give full control to a GM/HC. As long as Chan is gone, and the Stache, the more we stay 4-3, and try to win now, without blowing things up, while getting our QB of the future if possible (even if he is a second rounder who sits a year).

This. Also a loss would have worsened our SoS because the Jets twice would be a more winning team, so I think we likely would not have had a chance at #6. My guess is that this was 1-2 spots looking at the numbers. I will take a win over the difference from 7 to 9 or so. Go Bills!

Oops on the fish. I still like 2-4 better than 1-5, and only being swept by one division opponent. And with Carolina winning and San Diego likely to win, and Arizona and Oakland to lose, the full range of 5-11 to 6-10 draft slots will go from #6 to #10. I just don't see us crying over where we fall in that range. Every draft has good players taken 10 and later and bad players taken in the top 6. Glad to have won, and now I hope we draft well wherever we end up.

I don't know, but I can tell you that losing it we could have picked no higher than #7 (#8 if Arizona wins before looking at tie breakers), and the list of great QBs drafted between #7 and where we end up picking is pretty short. Go ahead and pull them up for me, and I will compare them to the list of great QBs drafted from where we end up and after. No game is meaningless. Winning football games is really important both as the end goal, and in terms of building a winning culture. 8-8 and 4-12 both have you not drafting #1 and not going to the playoffs. If you prefer 5-11 to 8-8, good luck with that and building a winning franchise.

Because it keeps us from being the doormats, it keeps us from being 0-6 in the division, and it lets some of the guys coming back have a better winning experience and learn to win more than if they lost. Remember that the 35 guys coming back next year will matter a lot more to this team's next season than the three guys we will pick with our first three picks (I'm not even going to count draft position in rounds 4-7 where smart or lucky beats slot every year). Building a winning tradition and a focus on winning matters way more than the crap shoot pecking order between #6 and #13. Remember this is not costing us Andrew Luck. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft, and we were not going in the top 5 no matter what. I am pissed about the 10 times we showed up and couldn't seal the deal this year, not the six times we did. I really really wish we had found a way to be 7-9 instead of 6-10. And I would have like 8-8 even better. 9-7 and missing the playoffs would have been awesomely better too. Winning football games is very very valuable, even when we have our eyes in the draft.

Which great pick, and who do you want to draft with him? Not sure where we settle in the 6-13 range we started the day, but I'm fine with it, and am most interested in getting a great smart pick, than a specific guy available at #7 but no longer available at #11.

Not meaningless. It will help them more to win than to lose. Other than that I agree with you. Go Bills.

The worse we can be is #13 before looking at the SoS tie breakers. The best we can be is #6 without looking at SoS. I'm not sure how we fare in that, but I don't think we have a full 6 to 13 swing with a win. I'm certainly rooting for the other teams in that range to win, except for the Jets. But our win will help our future more than it will hurt.

Who are you taking #1? I just don't see the Andrew Luck available this year. Luck and Manning are players who I would lose for. Not sure who the third example is. You want to draft in the Ponder slot instead of the Freeman slot? I like better picks all over the place, but I like winning more. The draft is a crapshoot (where having better positions helps) and we are not historically very good at it. I hope we do awesome wherever we are drafting, and move up if needed. But right now I want to win, and am glad at least 53 people seem to be agreeing with me.

I agree... if the Jets were to somehow pull it out despite our best efforts, I would optimistically take the draft position with a smile. But I want a team that will play hard every snap regardless, and not pack it in so that their replacements can be drafted higher. I really wish we had won previously and were finding a way to 7-9 today. And if we could have won two other games and been playing for 8-8 I think that would be awesome too.

I agree. My main complaint with this team has been the bad play and hopelessly embarrassing stretches (porous defense, disappointing QB play and late picks). This team has lacked the winning competitive fire, and I really would like them to start to learn to play with that (under a new coach) for 16 games X 60 minutes.

Can't draft 53. Some of these guys are going to need to learn to be winning football players or we are going to have to wait five years. I would rather have my: 2011 JJ Watt / Robert Quinn 2010 Pierre-Paul / Dez Bryant 2009 Orakpo / Cushing / Freeman 2008 Flacco / CJ2K 2007 Revis / Bowe those types of players are available outside of the top 10 every year. I would be happy to have higher picks, but not at the cost of winning, and know that Maybin over Orakpo is a management/scouting decision, and not an unfortunate result of winning and sliding down the draft order.

jumbalaya was just added to my list of people not to coach our team after Chan is fired. ALWAYS TRY TO WIN. Regardless of score and regardless of standings. It is a good habit to learn, and helps build better football teams. Look at history over the last decade. There is more correlation between winning games in previous years and winning more games later, than between losing your way to better picks and then starting to win all of a sudden. If winning football games is your long term goal, start practicing it at every opportunity as early as possible.

Except for Brees, Rodgers, Dalton, Kapernick, Brady vs Russell, Sanchez, Akili Smith, Couch, etc. Don't let Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck cause confusion. Top picks are great, but a lot can happen, and I would rather give up a Tarrell Troup pick to move up a little if needed than lose to get that slot.

After Chan is fired and Fitz is cut, I would like to officially vote that Pigskin Altar does NOT become either our head coach or our QB, because he lacks the inherent commitment to playing to win regardless of score or standings that is really useful for a sport where commitment to playing to win is really really important (despite how hard Jauron told us it is).

I do. As always, this team winning this game is more valuable to our future than the slide in draft position. I want them to hold on and win this game. Losing is for losers, and the difference between #8 and #15, or whatever the maximum swing is is not as great as the act of winning for the the 35 or so guys who will be back next year. Only in forums is the act of losing beneficial, especially with the inexact science of the draft and all of the great players picked lower than less great players every single draft.

I'm fine with the 15 and 5, although I would probably prefer 18/6. But to say losing games isn't a bad thing these last 3 weeks is crazy and is the type of stuff that has this team in a long term rut. We are never ruined by our draft position. We are ruined by some bad draft decisions, and most importantly by our ability to play winning football. I know you think that moving from #15 to #7 in the draft is really important, but it is not nearly as important as winning out and finishing 8-8 would be to the 35+ players from this team who will be back next year. Fitz isn't the answer and Chan isn't as smart as we thought, but we don't want to blow it up, we want to build a winning situation for the replacement coach and replacement QB to come in to when that happens. I want to see this team 8-8, and I think we all should hope for that goal. an 8-8 team with the #15 pick will be better prepared to make a playoff run next year than a 5-11 team with the #7 pick. And while the 5-11 team is more likely to fire Chan than the 8-8 team, I don't view them as that differently positioned to replace Fitz, and both will try with a non-top QB late in round 1 or somewhere in rounds 2 or 3.

We are not going to make the playoffs, but the more games we play with any slim hope, the better as far as I am concerned. Obviously Bengals and Steelers wins make things less likely, but if we win out and are 9-7 and the Colts are in, the Jets and Dolphins are both eliminated, and we have: Bengals 7-5 DAL,@PHI, @PIT, BAL Steelers 7-5 SAN, @DAL, CIN, CLE Dallas getting hot, Chargers having a good game and the Eagles winning at home, and things get interesting. Needing 9 of 12 games (including our own 4) to go our way is pretty unlikely, but Buffalo, Dallas, and San Diego winning next week and being able to talk about this stuff for another week would be pretty cool. However our loss to Indy, and especially our loss to Tennessee will very likely prove fatal to our season.

I think it is dumb to hope for a week 17 loss for draft positioning in an inexact crapshoot, but to call a week 13 win a bad thing is mind boggling. We will not make the playoffs, but we are still in the playoff hunt officially and mathematically, and having the 53 guys on the roster play with some hope is more important that you realize to build a winning team. And finding a way to get to the first non-losing season in a long long time at 8-8 or 9-7 would be a big stepping stone as well. And as people have stated, there is no Luck in this draft, and if there were we would be a long way from being close to getting him. We have to hope there is a Brees, Rodgers, Dalton, Kaepernick, Flacco. I'm in complete agreement JPS who nailed it.

I looked at every draft in another thread since the 2007 Trent Edwards, and the only pick where we passed on someone we clearly should have picked, knew it on draft day, and are getting it clearer as time passes is A.Williams over Dalton/Kaepernick. There is nowhere else where a good pick is picked relatively soon after our pick who was a consensus success. So for all the hair pulling, it should be Dalton that angers us if anything. If you disagree, please name the pick and round and player that was a clear good pick for us for a QB in our spot. Mallet over Sheppard? Freeman over McKelvin? Some other hindsight ones, but not draft day dumb decisions.

Have you looked at our current 4-7 record and our remaining schedule? We would currently pick about 11th, and will likely fall to the mid teens over the next month. Guys who are labeled as "Elite Franchise QB"s rarely are guys who fall out of the top 10. And also, guys labeled as Elite Franchise QBs in November are not often the same come draft day (Quinn, Claussen, Mallet). There is no Luck or RGIII in this draft, but there certainly could be a Brees or Dalton or Flacco or Freeman. But if there was an Elite Franchise QB clearly labeled as such in November by the draft gurus, chances are he would not be available when we pick anyway.

Yes, I would have been quite unhappy if we passed on Marcel to pick Green at the time, and I don't think it would have been the best decision. Obviously right now Green is looking like the better player, but I don't think he clearly was at that time, or the better fit. Dalton or Kaepernick over Williams I was hoping for on draft day, and I think would have been a really good idea. Here is a list of QBs taken within 15 picks of our pick in recent years, so guys we could have had if we wanted, since the draft where we last picked a top 3 round QB (Trent Edwards) 2012 Gilmore #10 - Weeden #22 2012 Glenn #41 - Osweiler #57 2012 Graham #69 - Russel Wilson #75 2011 Dareus #3 - Locker, Gabbert, Ponder 2011 Williams #34 - Dalton #35, Kaepernick #36 2011 Shepperd #68, Mallet #74 2010 Troup #41, Claussen #48 2009 Maybin #11, Freeman #17 2009 Byrd #42, Pat White #44 2008 McKelvin #11, Flacco #18 2008 Hardy #41, Brohm #56, Henne #57 2007 Lynch #12, Quinn #22 2007 Poz #34, Kolb #36 (Beck/Stanton) Russel Wilson over Graham, Dalton/Kaepernick over Williams, Freeman over Maybin, Flacco over McKelvin, Kolb over Poz are all moves that today would make sense. Of those I think that Wilson and Kolb would be using hindsight unfairly (see Brady, Tom), and similarly Freeman over Orakpo (leave Maybin out of it) would have been a head scratcher. I also think that Flacco was scouted too much as a second round project without mobility (read Mallet) to be realistically picked at #11 out of Delaware. So that leaves in the last six years, only one head scratching pick, and that is Aaron Williams, ahead of two QBs who I think all of us liked more than Williams on draft day, and each of whom is currently the starter for a playoff contender. I put this pick currently with Ngata and Orakpo as ones that seemed dumb on the day of the draft and have only grown stinkier, but I don't put AJ Green/Dareus in the same category.

Agreed on the premise. We have not been terrible, and have not been close to the #1 pick for a while (and if we got there it would probably not be a Luck year with our luck). But I will not root against this team even in week 17. The problem here isn't who we could have drafted two spots higher any given year, but it is the culture of so-so football. Right now I want a 9-7 season, but if we end up with an 8-8 season I prefer that to a 7-9, etc. There is no franchise savior clear top pick this year, and even if there were 4-12 isn't going to get him for us. While we need a better QB and better play calling, and either a better DC or better execution of his schemes (remember it is year 1 of the switch back to the 4-3), the biggest thing we need is better football results from the 53 guys out there that creates a culture of winning. And 9-7 does more for that than 6-10 does. We should have beaten the Titans and the Colts, and should be 6-5 right now, but a strong finish to the year and keeping the coaching staff is a better path to the playoffs than blowing things up, hiring new people, hoping for a high draft pick, etc.