Koufax

Who was the last rookie WR to put up 1300 yards? Sammy's production in 2014 matters a lot less than his development into a real superstar AND the team doing well in 2014. I think both of those things could realistically happen. Reckless seems a little bold and excessive, but it certainly has some risk and I don't love the move. We improve this year very clearly (got a player not available at #9 and gave up no additional 2014 picks) and got a guy who seems to have star potential and was not a reach at the pick where he was selected. I prefered Mack at #4, but don't follow it closely enough to think I'm right about that. The are several ways this turns out to be a bad deal: 1) if one of the players we were realistically targeting at #9 (Ebron, Beckham, Martin) proves to be a real star, and Watkins isn't better or enough better to justify paying to move up. 2) if one of the players we were might have realistically considered at #4 (Mack) proves to be significantly better in the NFL than Watkins. 3) 2014 goes horribly and instead of giving up the #18 or #23 pick to move up like we hope, we give up another top 10 pick. This is the one you mention. #1 seems to be one bbb's worry, but I don't see it. I liked players we could have had at #9, but am still bullish on Watkin's future. Anything can happen, but this isn't the real risk. #2 could go either way, and I like Mack, but I don't think your draft day expectations are for anybody available at #4 to be a clearly better football player over the next 5-8 years. So it all comes down to #3, what you expect of the 2014 season, what we expect of EJ, etc. If EJ were to prove to be a bust, we won't be drafting his replacement in 2015, but I think that would be a premature evaluation anyway and I am fine with that. But if 2014 is a disaster and that pick is worth a lot, we get caught having paid more than we thought at the time of the trade, and it will mean less total talent on our roster over the next five years than if we hadn't made the trade. If that pick is in the 20s, I think everyone will be happy with the trade (because of what picking in the 20s means), and if it is a top 10 pick, everybody will hate it because of what that means. In the teens is where there will be more room to evaluate and disagree.

If the Bills liked Watkins more than Mack, I don't have a big issue with them giving up the #18ish pick in the 2015 draft to move up and get him. That seems like reasonable value. If our year goes badly and our pick is a top 10 pick that proves to be a bad gamble. The biggest issue for me is the idea that this is a win now move. If this is a win now move, I just don't see how Watkins as a rookie WR can have more of an impact than Stevie + Mack. When Stevie is healthy and plays 16, it is reasonable to think of him as a 1000yd, 8TD, 13YPC receiver. Of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, nobody did better than that as a rookie, so it is suspect that in real production we can expect more from Watkins than Stevie in 2014. What this does is start a core of development with EJ that increases his chances of making it, and if he does means a serious combo for years to come. Having a young talent on the upswing to go with your QB and develop chemistry might be a lot more valuable than having a slow aging performer on the downswing, even if that player has the experience to produce better right now. If Sammy is as talented as the Bills think he is, and if we end up a #18 or #23 pick next year, it is a great pickup and deal for us even if he underperforms Stevie in 2014 at an individual level.

I don't hate the trade and I think the pick we gave up will be 18+ and not a "darn, we could have drafted Maybin" top 12 pick. BBut I think Watkins will have a tough time outperforming Stevie in 2014. Certainly over the next five combined he will, but rookie receivers have a limited impact and even Calvin Johnson didn't get up to Stevie's baseline. So for just 2014 I would rather have Mack and Stevie than just Watkins. Over the next five we will have to see, but Mack and some Stevie probably wins out, while Ebron, Stevie, and the #18 pick in 2015 might represent the most value. As long as we win enough games to make the 2015 pick not sting, and Watkins and EJ have a long successful run together, this might not be great value but won't be horrible. The three things that can go more wrong are for Watkins to not be elite, Mack to be as great as he might, or for the 2015 pick to end up higher than us optimists think. It is a gamble of a deal and one I think will give us less value in 2014 and less over the next five years than the other options I memtion, but not by enough of a probability/margin that it will really hurt the franchise.

I think Mack (and keeping Stevie) would have been the better choice with the picks they had. I think Ebron staying at #9 would have been fine if you wanted a pass catcher. I'm really excited about Watkins, but I don't think he steps in to be amazing this year (Calvin Johnson as a rookie under 800yds, Dez Bryant under 600yds), and by the time he gets his year 2 impact he will have cost that second 1st rounder we give up. I hope he blows expectations out of the water, and is a key to getting us to the playoffs this year, and build a core of talent for the future. But I have a hard time seeing him be enough better than Stevie over the first couple years to make up for a difference maker like Mack. The hope at the moment certainly is that an improved team means that the pick we give up is in the 20s. I think I like the trade up if it is in the 20s, can live with it if it is in the teens, and obviously hate it if it turns out to be a top 10 pick (meaning the impact of Watkins didn't lift our team, and also meaning additional value). I happen to think the best football player on the board when we picked at #4 was Mack, and am always for taking the better player, but Watkins is special and will make a difference over the next five years. It is just harder to have that immediate difference felt in year 1 as a WR compared to a LB, so not only a slightly inferior player, but one at a position that will have a harder time impacting the fate of the coming season.

I know the Bills wanted to make a bold move focused on winning now and an immediate 2014 bump. I'm still not sure that +Watkins and -Stevie was our best way of doing that when compared with: 1) Drafting Mack at #4 and keeping Stevie. I think I would rather have Stevie + Mack than Watkins + nobody in 2014. Maybe I'm not accounting for his decline, but he is still 27, is a 1000+ yard receiver when he plays 16, and rookie WR tend to struggle a little at first. Even Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant both failed to crack 800yds as rookies. So I am not quite sure why we would expect more out of 2014 Watkins than 2014 Stevie. And to add an impact pass rusher like Mack while having a stronger 2014 receiving corp seems like a smarter choice. 2) Draft Ebron #12 and keep Stevie and our 2015 pick. I've made my case of what I expect out of Stevie v Watkins above (I hope to be wrong now that the deal is done), but if Stevie is close to Watkins this year, we know Ebron would be a big added weapon over our current TEs, and we would keep a first rounder to keep the talent flowing into the system (even if I hope it will be the #32 pick). Ebron + Stevie + 2015 pick vs. Chandler + Watkins + no pick. Either way, I think we are selling a little low on Stevie, and disappointed to see him go. It reminds me a little of the Marshawn situation where we created a log jam with a high pick, and then solved that log jam with an undervalued move. Basically I'm a fan of drafting and keeping the most talent possible year after year, and I think we might have taken a step back there. I wish Stevie luck and a Super Bowl in San Fran, but don't see how removing him from our roster helps us get better in 2014 which was the goal of our bold moves. On the plus side, EJ/Woods/Watkins will be together for a while, and hopefully can form a really dynamic trio well into the future when Stevie is on the decline and no longer a play maker.

I will put Martin over Ebron in the Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo completely obvious and stated pre-draft dumb move category. We have to see how things go, but he isn't the best player available at #9, he isn't a position of need, and he isn't the offensive weapon that they want to get for EJ. However the first eight picks go, there will be somebody better, and I expect it is Ebron, but I'm definitely open to someone better sliding to us.

Not today's question or worry. Thoughts and prayers with Mr. Wilson and all of the great things he did for Buffalo. The rest will sort itself out another day and will be fine.

with this part. Luck, RGIII, Wilson, Newton, etc. I think there certainly are examples to the contrary, and I'm actually still bullish on EJ, especially considering he had injury trouble and limited prep, rather than just struggling. But I think recently rookie year struggles more often correlate to future failure than expected learning curve in a QB.

Who knows what we need most over the impactful first five years of his career. If he really doesn't fit the current system for some reason maybe you shy away, but if you use a top 10 pick on a less talented player based on the voids the other guys on the 53 man roster are creating, you will ensure yourself of an inferior 53 man roster year after year. On similarly ranked players sure, split some hairs using perceived immediate need, but when in doubt take the best football player (weighted according to positional importance so a 92 QB is much higher than a 99 Right Guard) to infuse your roster with the most talent as possible, and keep repeating that over the four or five years that each of those players is sure to be on your roster, and sooner or later you look up and your roster resembles Seattle's. I don't consider myself an expert evaluator of talent and don't know where Mack and Mosely rank. But I think anything other than some weighted version of BPA is shooting your team in the foot. I want really good talent evaluators to make the rankings, but I would just as soon have Warren Buffett define the philosophy and add as much to our talent portfolio. If a talent/BPA focused draft leaves short term holes, fill them with free agents.

I'm so happy to see the 90% hoping to win, and all the winning comments. Maybe our fan base at TSW has taken the same turn our defense has, and we hope our franchise does. Win every football game, and draft smart. I can't wait until we choose a good player with the #32 pick in the next few years.

So happy with this win and what it means for our 53-man roster next year. On to New England to smack somebody in the mouth. Go Bills

I'm so happy we won our 5th game, and I can't wait for us to win our 6th next Sunday. I want 7-9 right now, and don't care at all about draft position drop from 5 to 15 if we can pull it off. Drafting smart is what matters on draft day, and winning football games is what matters during the season. If you lose sight of either of those it is a tough hill to climb. It's okay for me to root for some of the other teams to win some games, but I with all my heart want this team to claw its way to 7-9 and finish on a three game winning streak. Beating N.E. on the road in a game that will be worth a bye to them is going to be really hard, but I still hope it happens. Right now we can do no worse than #17, and can go no higher than #2 before any tie breakers are thought about. Realistically we are going to be locked in the 5 to 15 range as the other games shake out, and probably even in a narrower area we are used to picking in (8 to 12), where the difference matters a lot less than wins on the field do. At 5-11 we pick 2nd to 11th At 6-10 we pick 3rd to 14th At 7-9 we pick 9th to 17th But most importantly, without some big upsets in the last couple weeks, there are going to be very few 5-11 and 6-10 teams, so our next win (Sunday against the Fish) is going to have very little impact on our draft position, and it is very unlikely we pick in the top six regardless of what happens the last few weeks. I don't think there is any reason at all to think about draft position and not wins as the most important and valuable thing to this team over these last two weeks. Go Bills!

No, this game did not hurt our draft stock. Because our draft stock doesn't matter in December, winning football games does. I will not be rooting against this team in week 17 even. The difference between 7-9 and 4-12 are huge for this team, not just because the wins are few and craved, but because each and every win goes a long way to changing the hopes and beliefs and culture of this team. I know we have put a lot of our hopes in the draft, but the difference between the #8 and #15 pick are just not as much as everybody here makes out, while winning football games really matters. So I am not just glad we won today for today's singular enjoyment, I am happy we won today for what it means to this club on draft day, and all through next season. Go Bills

So right now while we are waiting, go Jacksonville, Houston, Indy, and Miami? I still need to figure out if I start Spiller or Freddie for a crucial fantasy matchup... Edit: Houston up 10-0, two touchdowns away from taking an insurmountable 24-0 halftime lead against the Patriots!

I believe he spilled Jason Kidd's drink on the field as well.

Byrd is replaceable, but by an inferior player. The question is does the amount of dollars and cap room we save in getting that inferior player to play for us add more value to our team elsewhere on the roster, or does it just allow Ralphy Wilson to die a richer billionaire? I think that we struggle to get better enough elsewhere while losing Byrd, and I'm very happy to overpay him a little in the way that we didn't want to with Levietre.

It is amazing how things are shaping up for us to be in at 9-7, and how there are still reasonable possibilities at 8-8 without crazy upsets. That is pretty crazy for a team that needs to jump from #13 seed to #6 with so many teams in front of us. Getting to 8-7 will certainly make the final week exciting, and clearly the biggest thing is obviously getting to 5-7 in Toronto on Sunday. This week Miami over the Jets, Colts over the Titans, and Bengals over the Chargers are all we have to root for, with none of those being *key* games, and none of our desired results being upsets. I hope this thread is still going strong in 48 hours!

This is the biggest thing for this team. We are not winning the Lombardi trophy this year, but every extra week we are alive and playing meaningful games is so crucial for the growth of the team and the changing of the mindset of the franchise. To this year head into the last week with a chance at 8-7 would be huge. Winning in New England in a game that they need for the top seed seems very doubtful and not something I would count on at all, but doing so means that we play zero meaningless games all year, and would really inspire a lot of belief on our roster and set us up very nicely for next year. And it still keeps the miracle run door ajar because you never know... Getting to 5-7 this week and not needing any miracles this week to keep hopes alive means that there is a good chance we can keep these hopes alive another week, and hopefully see an attitude change in this young team in every practice snap, every video session, and another 60 minutes of game time. Anyone who doesn't think that matters and even finishing 8-8 after a loss to NE isn't massively better than limping to 6-10 I don't think understands the necessary culture change that stands between us and being a successful franchise once again.

5-7. The rest of things have a pretty good chance of shaping up in our favor week by week. If we beat the Falcons then chances are things with the rest of the teams look even better a week from now than they do now, but it all involves us getting to 5-7. Winning out is a big deal. We have five "winnable" games, but even if each of them is a a 75% chance in our favor (not likely), the odds of five straight 75% outcomes is less than 25%. We were worried about other games a lot this week with the bye, but in the coming weeks other things playing out in our favor is much much less significant than just taking care of our own business. All that matters is beating the Falcons in our first meaningful December game in a while to live another week.

What matters is that the other games we wanted went our way today, and 9-7 has a good chance at the #6 seed without complicated scenarios and a million upsets. That doesn't mean Lombardi trophy, but it means coming out of our bye against a weak Falcons team with meaningful December football. I don't expect to beat New England in New England in week 17, but I am really excited to creep closer to that being a game that matters and not playing any meaningless football this year. That would be a big deal to the growth of this team. 5-7 and still alive here we come!

Fish lose!

Yes, I totally agree, but given that it is adjusted each week to reflect the current state of things, I thought it an effective starting point for a rough evaluation of things (given that win% produced too many ties). And given that doing it and flipping a single switch (Bills over Dolphins) got us to heading into the last day with a good shot. What is exciting is that there are still a variety of ways to make it if we win out, and we aren't sitting on any specific combination of unlikely outcomes. I happen to think it is really unlikely (especially the win in New England), but each week the chance survives (and probably in the next couple weeks strengthens) it is a positive thing for our football team.

Fun to play with the playoff machine. If you put in power rankings, then change the Bills to win out and give the Jets a loss in week 17. I don't think it is going to happen, and actually care even more that the hopes last a few more weeks. The only game we need to not go the power rankings way is Bills over Dolphins at home (which I expect we will be favored for) in week 16 for us to carry our playoff hopes into the last game of the season. No matter how you look at it, some decent outcomes this week and things keep shaping up as we head into a winnable game off of our bye. Whether we make it or not, making that the focus of attention for the fact that we are winning games and still have hope is a HUGE thing for this team growing. To be able to do it in our first year of a new staff with rookie QB plus the QB injuries really says a lot about our future. Power rankings as criteria, Bills beat Dolphins, Bills beat Patriots, Jets lose to Dolphins in week 17 = Jets and Bills at 9-7 but we win the tie-breaker. Obviously Power Rankings aren't a perfect predictor especially when considering home team, but they give a pretty reasonable picture overall.

This isn't about hoisting the Lombardi trophy, or even about making the playoffs this year. This is about heading into the bye with a chance and something to play for. Right now we want this weekend (since we can't watch the Bills): Broncos over Patriots Panthers over Dolphins Ravens over Jets Chiefs over Chargers Those four things aren't that unlikely and give us something to focus on this weekend. Additionally four of the 4-6 teams play us so two of them will join us at 4-7 no matter what. That sets us up for the following week to play meaningful games in December, which is a pretty cool stepping stone given all that has gone on. We would be trying to win a winnable game Dec 1 against the Falcons and not having any make or break matchups to root for to bridge us to hope alive on Dec 8th. We are a big longshot at this point, and realistically aren't going to make it, but having hope through the bye week and into December is more fun than sorting out draft position, and also is a really big positive for the 2014 Bills as this young team heads in to its second season under the coaching staff and QB primed for some continued success.

Certainly not a gimme, but I wouldn't put big money on the Patriots. Mr. Welker kinda does well at that stadium, and the Broncos O vs Patriots D is more of a mismatch than it has been in past years.