Koufax

I hated that play watching it live, and for what it represents in effort, but watching the replays, I don't think he gets it. Also on the phantom sacks again a reaction I hated, but not sure if there was a better play to be made. The think that bothered me most today and still does in hindsight was not going for it on 4th and 2, and taking time between plays 5-9 minutes out. Coming back from down three scores doesn't require ordinary pace and taking of chances, it requires a little more. We saw on 4th and 16 the steps you do to try to win a game, and that should have happened on an easier situation one possession earlier.

It is very unlikely we make the playoffs and that has been the case since we dropped two games in five days to the Chiefs and Fish. But we are heading into the final three weeks of the season, still very much alive with multiple realistic scenarios. And we actually have a number of scenarios where we make it at 9-7, and it is actually impossible for that to be eliminated next week, so we will hit week 16 no matter what with our playoff hopes alive even if we lose to Green Bay. The reason for that is there is a reasonable chance all of the AFC North except Cin finishes 9-7 (or at least that the possibility of that is in place heading in to week 17) and if that happens Cleveland eliminates Baltimore and Pittsburgh first on conference record and then we beat Cleveland on head to head. The biggest game seems to be having the Browns beat the Bengals next week, otherwise all of our 9-7 scenarios disappear (unless the Raiders could win in KC, which we can certainly root for), and many of our 10-6 do as well. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine Anyway, still alive, and getting ready to play at home against the Packers with them having a short week. Not an easy game, but I think the most winnable of our three HOF QB matchups in December.

Two somewhat sarcastic points: We cannot make the playoffs without an 8th win (since we are not in the NFC South). We cannot beat anybody but the Broncos this week. There are plausible but unlikely 9-7 scenarios, plenty of 10-6 scenarios, so we can lose any game and still be completely alive, but getting our 8th win on Sunday is definitely our best chance. Warm and sunny and no rain or snow on Sunday doesn't play well to limiting Peyton, but I like our chances to keep it closer than people expect, and have a chance to win based on how we do on a couple key plays. Definite underdog, but one that has a chance.

There are a bunch of ways that don't involve the Raiders winning in Lambeau or other impossible things, but the Dolphin win last night cut off a fair amount of them. But some pretty simple and likely outcomes plus Jets over Dolphins, Browns over Ravens week 17 have us in at 9-7. I don't expect it to happen, but if were to hit the final week at 8-7 it is fairly likely we won't officially be eliminated going in to the final 60 minutes. But one certainty is that seven wins will not be enough, and the road to 10-6 or 9-7 goes through an eighth victory. Right now we just have to find a way to win #8 and let a few other chips fall into place with some help pretty likely this week.

I hated the call, and I hated it more because my fantasy football team missed the playoffs over the Bills D losing those points, but the more I have seen and heard, the more I think it is unfortunately the correct call. He really wanted to tuck, and pull the ball down, no question about it, and he continued in that motion after he had lost the ball, making it feel more like a fumble. BUT the ball is still going forward when Kyle gets there and hits it, and the tucking motion is after the ball has already been impacted and he has lost control of it. Kyle was just a tenth of a second too quick and awesome for this one to break in our favor, but at least we got the game.

We look good still at 10-6, but this game really hurt our chances of getting a 9-7 gift. But it is surprising that there are a lot of scenarios that we still get in at 9-7, even though we now need the Dolphins to lose their last twoat home and finish 8-8, or have another couple games go our way to shift the tie breaker. All that matters now is finding our 8th win in the next two weeks, and preferably this Sunday with the upset.

We have thrown away several games we really needed, and it is unlikely that we can overcome that. But what matters is that we are 6-5, and 10-6 very likely gets us into the playoffs, and there are actually some reasonable scenarios where we get in at 9-7. All that matters now is getting to 7-5 and letting some of the other things play out. There are a lot of head to heads ahead of us, and it doesn't take one or two specific scenarios to get us in. Keep the hunt alive one week at a time.

The real question is if we had picked Brady in the 5th round AND Drew Brees instead of Nate Clements, who would we be starting? I was not a big fan of the Watkins trade, because I didn't think he was enough better than the alternatives to give up a future #1 pick, and the undervaluing of future picks I think hurts franchises in the long term, but I am a *huge* fan of the player. I know he will never be a David Tyree...oh wait, a great catch doesn't make you the better player... Evans wasn't available, and I don't think Beckham has reason to be considered better than Watkins, even with future revisionist hindsight. Whatever we eventually gave up with the 2015 #16 or so pick will decide the difference, but Watkins will be a great player.

Wait, the weather caused us to lose to the Chiefs and Dolphins?

But we "needed" a tall wide receiver... But we needed a NT for the 3-4... When you draft for need, you decrease the talent on your roster over the following five years, and that player rarely can fill the perceived need immediately before that need has shifted to something else. We were all scratching our heads on the Troupe pick, but the two big ones I think we can all agree on and just about the whole TBD was in on was Ngata over Whitner and Orakpo over Maybin. Other than those two I think we have more "hindsight taking Brady in the 5th", even if there were some definite head scratchers...

I don't know, but if we beat the Dolphins 29-0 and they beat the Chargers 37-0, that means if we ever played the Chargers, we would win either 66-0 or 1073-0 (I always forget if you add or multiply)...oh wait... And the Chargers were coming off a bye. That was the most shocking result of yesterday. The threads said to root for the fish yesterday, but I think they are more of a threat than the Chargers. I know we already beat them and if we beat them in Miami they shouldn't be a factor, but there are some paths to 10-6 that feature a loss in Miami, and in most of those there is a risk of finishing tied and losing a secondary tie breaker to them which would be heart breaking.

If you are plugging "holes" at #9, and in doing so taking inferior players to those available at other positions, then your draft strategy is on trial. If on the other hand you think that a top OL or top LB is the best player available at the pick, then go ahead and take him without worrying about the holes to plug. When you draft for perceived need, you over-estimate the ability of a rookie to contribute in year 1, and you guarantee that you are adding less total talent to your roster over the four or five year rookie contract. In Watkins' case, I think the trade is exciting and reasonable. We clearly got a better player this season than would have been available at #9, and the extra pick we gave up to move up is dropping in value from the "Hey, we could have drafted a Maybin with that pick!" to the "Hey we could have drafted a McCargo with that pick!" (I am jokingly cherry picking). What cannot be doubted is that we got more 2014 value than without the trade. The only question is if the value of the unknown 2015 pick we gave up proves too costly over the next few years compared to the difference between Watkins and who we reasonably would have considered at #9.

I don't generally like future pick trades, because they give up the long term roster talent of the team. But this time I will take Watkins over Ebron and the #32 pick in the 2015 draft. It might hurt more if that pick slides back into the teens, but it isn't likely to sit too high. And while I was smart enough to get Kelvin Benjamin on my fantasy team, I don't think he is reasonably thought to be the pick at #9 and that is more like the giving up a 5th rounder for Tom Brady revisionism, and Mike Evans was off the board, so it is Ebron or Beckham plus a pick vs Watkins. I'm happy with the trade, and every time we win the value of the pick drops and we can get happier.

Please disregard ALL current tie breakers. They will change so heavily in the second half of the season that us winning them now is completely irrelevant, and we could very easily lose tie breakers to these exact same teams at 10-6. I don't think 9-7 has much of a shot, but I think our chances are really good at 10-6. Here are some of my takeaways as we hit the halfway mark and bye in good playoff position: 1) YEA COLTS AND BRONCOS Indy and Denver are going to be in, we can root for them to knock off all potential rivals 2) BOO CHARGERS! We lose head to head with San Diego. (Although if KC is tied as well they could knock SD out.) 3) BOO TEXANS! We also lose head to head with the Texans, so we want to root against them because there is no plausible divisional knock out. 4) CRAZY CENTRAL: We need to root for a division leader to emerge in the central and root against the other teams. We don't play any of those three teams (just Browns), and that is the most dangerous chance of us not making the playoffs at 10-6. To early to tell who, but all three have manageable schedules and a lot of head to heads. The more loses show up among those three, the better. We most likely have to beat the Fish and the Browns and the Chief's to get to 10-6, so don't really have to worry about those teams that much except on game day. Mostly we have to take care of our business, but hoping the Chargers, Texans, and the Central teams drop some games in the meantime is a little fun. Let's hope we can keep winning and keep this going until we clinch a spot in week 16 or 17.

Great line of scrimmage adjustment by Orton, great throw by Orton, and great hustle by Don Beebe or whoever that was during the showboat. Summers making all the fantasy owners of Bryce, Boobie, and Sammy feel silly, but Bills fans feel great.

EJ needs to turn into a player that he isn't right now. I think there is a reasonable chance of that happening. He shouldn't have played if it weren't for the Kolb injury last year, and his knee injury slowed his reps and learning as well. So sitting in the #2 slot right now could be a positive for him. But right now, his accuracy and his decision making are not of the caliber of good NFL QBs, and unless he improves on those skills in practice before he returns to the field, or on the field with game experience when he does return, he isn't a starting QB. Keeping my fingers crossed that he can figure out how to improve those two things, and grow as a player despite his benching. I'm not unhappy with the draft pick as #16 is not a lock pick, especially with QB, and I think we got the best QB on the board. I am not unhappy with the person who seems to be dedicated and a good team player. I am unhappy with the player and performance. So for now he sits and learns and Orton plays until something goes wrong, and we don't take a QB in the upcoming draft unless it is a sleeper pick. After this season and next we can figure out if we are back to drafting in the 2016 draft, or if EJ will have evolved into the QB we hope he will become.

He was 4-1 in Buffalo to start a season and beat the Patriots and had everybody feeling good. I love Fitz for who and what he is, but unfortunately that is not going to be a consistently good NFL QB. Rooting for him to have a 16 game hot streak before regressing to his talent level because I think that would be fun and he deserves it.

I think Orton shows more of a chance of getting the Bills to the playoffs than EJ, and I'm on the "Why Not?" train as well. But let's get our fourth win first, so we can start to get ready for our fifth win.

New England, KC, and Miami are all tough games, although KC at home coming off the bye helps. I'm hoping to see some progress from Orton as he settles in. Definitely some good signs and well ahead of where EJ is right now. Right now I just want to see us get our 4th win as soon as possible before worrying about wins 5 and beyond, and not look past New England. But hitting the bye at even 5-3 would be great, and set us up for that manageable four game November schedule before our more difficult December.

A very interesting article which highlights that it is too soon to cast aside EJ as a bust based on statistics. What alarms me is the actual in game decision making and accuracy leading to these numbers. These are two areas he needs to improve significantly to be effective. It isn't that he needs to have done more so far or that early struggles doom a player, it is that two of the biggest traits for successful quarterbacks, the things that make Montana and Brady and Brees and so many others special are completely lacking so far. These are two qualities that most of the biggest busts lacked. I can't speak to each of the guys in the list and how each one displayed these two qualities during their first 20 games and subsequently. Decision making can evolve, but I think it is easier to be too aggressive and rein things in than to start passive and add daring. I think EJ gets this and has indicated that it is a change he wants to make when he gets his next chance. I'm not sure he processes information quickly enough to be great at this from what I have seen, but I don't know enough about those progressions and EJ to really know, so I will be cautiously optimistic that he will blossom in this regard. Throwing Accuracy is a bigger concern for me. Here we are just talking about when he decides to throw a ball to a given receiver, how close he puts it to where he is trying to put it. Cutting out decision making, touch, leading a runner and other more mental choices in the throwing process, I just see too many balls that when he actually throws don't go where he wanted them to. This is a bigger danger he just has to fix. I'm hoping it is also a question of experience and aggressiveness, and that when he finds a more aggressive rhythm he will find some increased accuracy, rather than just being a pitcher who can't throw strikes.

I really hope EJ puts it together, blossoms from the #2 spot on the depth chart, and is ready for his second chance when it presents itself. He has lots of physical tools and seems like a nice and dedicated guy. That said, however, he has shown no where near enough decision making ability and accuracy to be good in the NFL, two of the most important traits for a QB. Those can each improve somewhat while playing, but he first needs to take some steps on each. We know we aren't taking a top QB in next year's draft, so he still has a 28 game window to battle people like Orton and whoever we might take in a lower round next year and prove his worth, and he will get a second chance at some point. Lots of QBs take some time to develop, so here's hoping we win a lot with Orton while EJ gets better at throwing accuracy and decision making.

Buffalo Bills, where if you aren't the best option at your position you don't get to play. This certainly isn't what I was hoping for out of EJ, but he has performed really poorly in our two losses and isn't ready to be a consistent winning QB yet. Orton clearly isn't the answer, but his three years as a starter all have completion %, yards per attempt, and interception rate that EJ has never yet reached. This makes us a better football team on Sunday. As for EJ, he has some improving to do, and right now he has to do it as the backup until Orton struggles or is hurt. His career isn't done, and he can continue to improve in practice and get ready for his next shot. Aaron Rodgers (in very different circumstances) spent three seasons doing that. Benching EJ for 1 to 12 games isn't going to ruin his development, but hopefully it helps him figure it out. Whatever we can do to get to 3-2 is what matters, and the defense and running game and receiver depth all are just waiting for some competent QB play to be a really good team. I'm very disappointed that we didn't get that from EJ yet, but I'm glad that action is being taken when it isn't too late and hopeful that Orton will give us a spark while we continue to develop EJ.

I would take Dareus at #3 again if we had that pick, based on the information at hand at the time. But boy there has been a lot of production out of the top 15 picks of the 2011 draft.

I don't see a repeat of RJ/Holcomb here, and don't think the coaching staff will bail on EJ unless sustained incompetence exceeds what is likely. I view any starts he misses as being injury related, and I don't have any real reason to expect his unfortunate knee injuries from last year to be predictive. That said, Dante Culpepper only played 16 games three times in his career, and being a big body Big Ben only twice in his career, so the big powerful somewhat mobile but not super agile model isn't the best to shatter Favre's games played record. I'm taking the under at 2, expecting them to be related to some minor nicks, and 14 games played when healthy.

Wait for final cuts. We have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, so there will be players better than our #3 without a job on Saturday, and I have to think Buffalo will get the top crack at any players with any ambition to get a chance at the position given how easy it would be to slide up to #2 on the depth chart behind a start with the jury out on performance and durability.