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Everything posted by Koufax
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Watkins: "I need 10 targets... You're making me look bad."
Koufax replied to johnwalter's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't have a problem with him wanting or asking for more targets, and everything in his language is about helping the team, nudging his OC, and mostly telling his QB to trust him more and look for him more. That is all good stuff. While this could turn negative in some scenarios, every great WR needs to want the ball and demand it when not getting it. That doesn't mean the OC/QB have to make bad decisions to appease him, but decoy Sammy isn't cutting it, and he is an amazing talent that has been under utilized. I hope is calf is up for him to have a dozen targets on Sunday, and if so I expect him to prove he was right. -
Are The Bills a Better Road Team?
Koufax replied to Uffalo Ills's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Or we struggle against multiple super bowl winning quarterbacks and do okay against never been close teams firing their coach and being bad enough to pick #2 a few months ago respectively...I think we are a better home team. -
I think Cundiff is mostly until Carpenter gets healthy to be a second field goal option, and it is much less than 50/50 that Carp is the one released. But that said, kicker confidence is always a big thing, both for them and for the team around them. If Carpenter doesn't get back to being clutch once fully healthy, and Cundiff does well in his opportunities, I can see a surprise happening.
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Bills at Dolphins 1st half thread
Koufax replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
No offense Kiko. I really liked you, and am sorry your knees continue to give you trouble. But wow it is nice to have Shady instead. -
If we can beat Miami this week we will be facing: a very shaky Giants team @ a team that picked #2 last year a pretty good Bengals team, but at home we have to be favored @Jax United...who knows, but we are the better team Fish at home - not going to lose that one @Jets (potential loss) @Patriots (toughest game of the year, but maybe Brady suspension and we are coming off the bye) @KC ... tough place to play and better than their record, but a winnable game. 0-2 Texans at the Ralph @Train Wreck Philly @Kirk Cousins Cowboys with Dez and Romo back, but at the Ralph in december. Jets at the Ralph with something on the line.. Even if @Pats, @Jets, and @KC all break away, I don't see where our fifth loss should be expected if we get on a roll and play well. So allowing for all three tough games to go against us and another unexpected loss to show up, it still is rosy. I usually never like to evaluate a schedule until the halfway mark because so much can change, but I think when all is said and done we will look back at a schedule that was easier than it initially seemed hitting us just as we are prepared to take advantage of it. I stopped betting money on the Bills after the fourth super bowl loss, but I'm with Steve, and think 11-5 is a very possible outcome, and possibly the most likely from 9-7 through 13-3.
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We bought low on Shady no matter what, and this wasn't supposed to be an even talent trade. In a few years we will suffer some overpaid aging RB grief, but in the short run we took advantage of Chip wanting to make a move for Murray, not any pretense that Kiko's on field value was really Shady's on field value. But obviously the injury has us feeling lucky and never really knowing how it would stack up talent wise (just like if Shady had a season ender and Kiko played healthy). But even absent the injury angle, the first few years of this deal were definitely in our favor, and the "do we release an old McCoy" and "Kiko is a free agent" years coming up are somewhat irrelevant compared to 2015-2017 years where the substance of this deal matter. When Shady is at full strength and sharing workload with the two bruisers, I think we will be all smiles regardless of Kiko's health.
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1) 61 drop backs, 1 sack, one (big) fumble, 59 passes thrown. Need more out of our D than that. Brady is the master of getting the ball out despite no mobility, and that happened big time today. 2) 13 yard short field, 30 yard short field as part of three touchdowns given up in six minutes. 3) I hope Aaron Williams is okay. 4) On to Miami and improving to 2-1
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McCoy left today's practice with tight hamstring...Uh Oh
Koufax replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Boo! Get an impact player who is 27 for a player coming off a missed season with an ACL? This trade could certainly go either way, and you are right that time will tell, but we got talent on a discount because Chip Kelly wants to run every aspect of his show. As for the aging, we are all aging, but at 27 Thurman had the most carries of his career followed by three more 1000+ seasons in a row. Faulk went over 2000 yards from scrimmage at 27 and 28. I'm not betting on 30 year old Shady to be an impact player, but I'm excited about 27 year old Shady playing for us this year, and 28 year old Shady playing for us next year. If his total carries go down as part of a combo with Karlos, his production and longevity might both go up as a result. -
Week 2: Patriots' Game Preparation - Inactives Announced
Koufax replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Back to Gronk and the big game he had last week, he is a great player and is going to get his catches and yards, but boy Pittsburgh blew it with him. On his first touchdown they had him not covered at all, which won't happen against us. On his second they let him get through two defenders without getting bumped (the one I think would be most likely against us). On his big gain they had him outside with a LB who stopped in a zone and let him go into another blown coverage. And his third touchdown was single covered by a linebacker on a fade, something we won't do. He is a weapon, but I don't expect him to get these blown coverage plays against Rex. If Gilmore shadows him, which wouldn't be a bad move, then I'm a little bit concerned with Edelman who I think Gilmore would otherwise cover. But I think Aaron Williams can also blanket him much better than the Steelers did The key remains our secondary being physical at the line and defending the quick passes, because I don't think our D-Line will allow Brady enough time and our secondary enough separation for big plays. -
The key to beating the Patriots this Sunday is...
Koufax replied to \GoBillsInDallas/'s topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Getting pressure on Brady is always the key. But Brady is the best at getting the ball out quick, and with a healthy dose of respect for our front four, I think their gameplan won't have a lot of Bledsoe five second drop backs. So I think in addition to the (Giants) cliche of generating simple pressure with your front four (rather than disguised, creative, blitz, etc), the number one key will be defending the quick passes, both on the outsides and slants. I think/hope/pray that Aaron Williams and Darby are two of the big performers in shutting down the quick passing game and if we get solid games out of them we will be in very good shape. I also think more power running with Karlos early will help open things up for Shady in the middle of the game and then let Karos come back late when the d starts to tire. Offensively, that chain of Incognito-Felton-Karlos I think can do more damage and control the ball early than we would normally see. -
This is the downside, but obviously he had to go. I'm hoping that this sort of thing is in Rex's strategic plans, and what he can give up in such a scenario isn't that in depth, and the real secrets and plans start tomorrow. So not quite the Lawyer Malloy last second thing, but a normal pre-season pre-53 casualty with only so much to share. But as a former Patriot with them as a week 2 opponent, it seems pretty likely that he spends some time talking with them, unless a team like the Eagles signs him immediately.
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I hate this news, but understand the NFL has moments like this. I hope he was treated with class behind the scenes and doesn't go to New England. It puts a lot of pressure on the third string RB to be useful enough to justify this. At the same time, given leadership, blocking, and fan favorite, I have to hope the talent evaluation difference was significant enough to justify messing with the Mojo. Thank you Fred. Truly a class act.
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How does it feel to have a real offensive coordinator?
Koufax replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It looks good, but I have been 5-3 before. Ask me 16 games in? -
Because Rex thinks highly enough of him to put him in a position where if he excels for an hour he is the starting QB like he had been each of the last two seasons? I'm a dubious EJ supporter ready to jump on the TT bandwagon, but this isn't a ploy or giving a fair chance or anything like that. Rex feels that EJ has a chance to be the starter and his performance Saturday will dictate it, or there is no way he would give him these reps. If you are throwing a fairness bone, it is the game 1 or game 2, or hypothetically even the game 4 and not officially announcing until after that. You don't give the game 3 starting reps to someone unless you think they have an excellent chance of stepping up.
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3rd preseason game is usually the one that the starter plays the most. Not sure what to make of that in the wide open competition, but if Ryan/Roman were already set on TT I don't think they would do something like this for "appearances". So my read on this is that EJ has as much a chance as anybody, and if he excels he will be the starter, and if he stumbles TT will be the starter. It sure seems like he is being given a chance to win it right here based on one strong showing, and if so that means that currently the race is too close to call. I just don't see how if they think TT is the guy, then they wouldn't have him start this one and get his reps. If he had done enough to win it already, why on earth wouldn't he start this game, like every NFL team starts and plays their #1 QB in preseason #3? He might be in the lead still, but if so, I think Rex thinks it is close enough that a great EJ performance would be enough to vault EJ. Missing some of the guys, but I think having Fred instead of Shady will likely help more than hurt, as he is the better pass blocker and with the 1s out there on the OL should give EJ the opportunity to show he has it or show us he doesn't.
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Cassel being our starter is only a bad thing. Fortunately it is an Alex Smith / Brad Johnson / Trent Dilfer thing, and not impending doom. But anybody who isn't banking on EJ getting a shot and being the guy as being our best option in 2015 is lowering the ceiling. Not quite to the GEICO tiny house ad level, but too low for my taste. I have trouble with EJ getting benched last year, and am hopeful he will be ready to step up and be at least "pretty good" to Cassel's "not all bad".
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Except for the Michigan Wolverines?
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Spiller was a class act all the way. Played hard every down he was on the field, and when he was able to get the ball showed what he is capable of. Given that the Saints are not on our schedule, I am definitely rooting for him to have a monster season and finish runner up to McCoy for the rushing title in a Saints offense that will definitely maximize him and use him out of the backfield to offset the lack of Jimmy Graham.
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Bills Teammates Rave about Tyrod Taylor
Koufax replied to RyanTalbotBills's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
So Taylor never made it to 60% completion rate in any season in college while EJ never went below 65%. I'm rooting for all three to perform well, but the only good news to come out of camp is EJ winning the job. Ryan has set it up where perception will be right that he earned it, and if he is the #2 he can save face and not be the starter who lost it. Obviously I don't think the decision has been made and it will be based on performance in camp, but the chances of being lead deep in the playoffs by: 1) Fitzpatrick Orton Cassel, a career meh who is older and has the profile of a backup. 2) The inaccurate in college too small, 6th rounder on his second team who has 29 pass attempts in the last four years. 3) The all the tools level headed 1st rounder who might not have gotten a fair chance under poor coaching, but needs to overcome some inconsistent decision making and accuracy questions from shown in his first 15 NFL games. I think if you are a Bills fan you really have to hope that #3 is what happens, and while you root for the other two guys to perform, their ceilings are so low that winning with them would take a really best case scenario. I'm not saying EJ has anything locked up, but he is definitely the horse we should all be backing in June, and very disappointed if he can't improve enough to beat those two guys out in August. Putting aside Cassel's one year starting in NE, his overall career completion %, YPA, and INT% are all worse than EJ's, without the physical upside or hope that he is young enough to get better. The sooner he seizes the reins, Cassel grabs the clipboard, and the other two stop getting reps, the better chance this team has to be something special, and if he cannot, god help us all since the rest of the team will be solid enough to prevent us from getting a top QB in the 2016 draft either. -
Would You Rather - Fitzpatrick or Cassel?
Koufax replied to BBills14's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Same age, same completion %, same YPA, I'll take the new guy who is bigger and has a lower career interception rate to be our backup and mentor to EJ, even though I love rooting for Fitz. If you have to pick one to play with our defense and our running game, turnovers should be one of the key things to focus on, but I hope Cassel doesn't see the field much and EJ takes the step forward we all hope and many of us expect. -
Cassel > Tuel Cassel > McNown Cassel ~= Orton We needed a veteran and he is so similar to Orton across just about all measures. I'm fine with this, and I still want EJ. Makes Sanchez less likely, and I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing yet but I think he compares favorably and is probably better. We weren't going to get someone who would change the franchise this offseason. Getting a proven smart veteran for minimal cost was the goal, and having Cassel/Orton/Sanchez as a baseline performance with our run game and defense, and then hoping EJ can find a way past that baseline and make that guy the #2 is our 2015 plan.
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Bills to trade Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy
Koufax replied to CNY315's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I was originally confused by the deal, but I don't get the huge reaction. 1) Kiko is a good player coming off a major knee injury 2) After the injury, Kiko is just under contract for two more years, so all the talk about McCoy's age are irrelevant when you are really focusing on what you get the next couple years. 3) Rex is the D guy, and if he is willing to part with him for a RB, I think he has a plan for the Xs and Os. 4) RB is a position that has shown less value difference between average and very good and has had its value eroded. But this guy can play. 5) McCoy will take some time with the adjustment and disappointment, but he is going to a ground and pound team where he will be the centerpiece. 6) McCoy can talk about Pennsylvania, but please remind him that it is 1:07 from the Ralph to the PA border, and half that if he lets Dareus drive. I'm reluctantly optimistic about this. I had been really excited about adding Kiko to our defense and trying to keep Spiller, but I think this can work out fine. -
Chargers need to move;propose shared LA stadium w/Raiders
Koufax replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
From here in San Diego, it seems more like the team is talking tough trying to get a better stadium deal. Clearly there needs to be a new stadium deal at some point, the question is where and with how much public financing. I think the NFL knows that between San Diego, St. Louis, and Oakland, there is clearly a market leader of the bunch, and would like to see this unsettled threat just long enough to get a public stadium in San Diego. Also the Spanos family that owns the team is very tied to San Diego, and I think would really hate to move (but clearly would if there were no stadium options). My prediction remains that Oakland and St. Louis go back to LA and San Diego eventually works out a stadium deal to stay. -
True cost of Bills' Watkins trade
Koufax replied to truth on hold's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Good point, and something I have said a number of times this is the comparison on the table. The fact that the pick turns out to be #19 and not #7 or something definitely helps this trade. Pretending we would have picked OBD is revisionist history (but a good example about why taking the best player at your draft slot is usually the best value if you can scout well). Comparing Ebron + #19 is fair. A lot of other comparisons are as revisionist as saying we should have taken Tom Brady at #141 instead of Avion Black. Worth noting in our creative revisionist history, the last time we traded a future #1 pick it was to move up and grab Losman, and the pick we gave up at #20 could have been used on Aaron Rodgers who went four picks later. -
Reported: Schwartz will be leaving the Bills
Koufax replied to Uffalo Ills's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'm disappointed that Schwartz will not be back, and consider that an unfortunate casualty of the otherwise great Ryan hire. I don't doubt that our personnel is very talented and Rex along with the new DC can plan on the best ways to use them. My hopes is that there isn't a drastic transition that makes the unit take a step back, instead of the return of Kiko helping it take a step forward. However, one thing is certain is that there will be less friction within the coaching staff. It is now up to Rex to make sure we have a smooth transition and get the most out of them. Schwartz's departure is a short term negative that we have to work hard to overcome, but is probably a medium and long term plus as it allows a cohesive vision and allows Rex to contribute the most he can to the team.